NATO/Russian conflict more than a military action.

 CONFLICT IS GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL  STRUGGLE

RESULT LIKELY TO BE FUTURE GLOBAL REALIGNMENT

While much is made about Ukraine self determination, this war is much more. It will have lasting repercussions on the global order. While the talk is mostly about who will win the military conflict in Ukraine, the far reaching and long lasting repercussions will be more important than any result of the war in Ukraine. Much is now at stake, the viability and unity of NATO. the economic survival of Western Europe and the future economic and political divisions of the global economy.

Whenever the decision was made by the powers that be to contain Russia, to decide to deny them a major role in the global economy and to pressure Russia to submit to the dictates of the U.S. and western Europe, the stage was set for this eventuality. Russian realization of the futility of attempting to co-exist economically and politically became evident with the Ukraine revolution in 2014. They then realized that their survival depended on them becoming self reliant. 

While the U.S. planned the confrontation with Russia decades ago, it did not become obvious until 2008 when speeches were made that showed the intention of expanding NATO onto the western and southern borders of Russia. The hope was that squeezing Russia would eventually result in regime change in Russia that would allow the opportunity for western access and control of Russian resources. 

When Russia eventually realized what was in store they also began their planning for this conflict. Putin began a political campaign to win the neutrality of counties to their south. They became a reliable partner with many meetings and summits in Moscow with countries in the south and the middle east. Many of those countries do not fear cooperating and having economic relations with Russia. At the same time the west began building up the military capability of Ukraine. Both sides seemed to know that a show down was in the future.

When Zelensky began making speeches about recovering Crimea and defeating the rebel force in Donetsk and then began moving troops into the region, the Russians responded by moving their troops to the border. It seemed that the U.S actually wanted a Russian action so that they could enable a prolonged confrontation that would force the collapse of the Russian government. They misjudged by hoping such a collapse would occur within weeks or several months. The Russian's also misjudged by expecting a show of Russian force would force a compromise with a neutral and independent Ukraine. It has now become a fight that will likely have destructive repercussions for years into the future.

It is obvious that the west believed that a proxy war between Russia and Ukraine would bleed Russia and make it vulnerable to political collapse and a new government. At the same time Russia's strategy is not completely clear.  We can assume they also knew the West's expectations and also has a long range plan. It could be foreseen that they hoped to encroach on Ukraine by making those rebel provinces part of Russia and also a partition to keep NATO expansion at a distance from the homeland. 

Now, it seems Russia may have a far bigger and long lasting plan. One must wonder why they never took out the infrastructure of Ukraine, the bridges, the government buildings and the railways. We are told they are weak and incapable of that strategy, but Russia could have done most of that damage from within the Russian borders. It has indeed been fighting a limited war. Never attempting to end it quickly and decisively. That raises serious questions about Russia's long range plan. Are they also hoping to bleed the west, and drain their reserves, weaken their ability to continue and eventually push them over the economic cliff they have been balancing on for some time?

It is clear that Russia has manged to survive the sanctions placed on them by the west. While they have suffered slightly economically, it is debatable which side has suffered more. At the same time Russia's diplomacy in the past decade has paid off and allowed the creation of an independent global economy in the east and south of the globe. An economy that is very close to equal balance to the rest of the world. 

The next few months will test the resolve of western Europe. It has a huge crisis brewing with energy shortfalls that do not have a source of replacement. It could lead to social unrest and the collapse of some EU governments. It could also lead to a severe economic collapse. It will put serious pressure on NATO members to question their continued support.

Is this really a great "rope a dope" strategy being placed by both sides. Inevitably this contest will never end in a settlement that will look like a former time. The old global order is dying, it will never go back. It is inevitable it will be replaced with something all together different. Will it be duel spheres of influence that can co-exist? Or will an all out decisive confrontation be the only outcome?