Ukraine makes progress in Kharkov offensive.

WAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MANY MORE MONTHS

NEITHER NATO OR RUSSIA CAN ACCEPT DEFEAT 

The counter-offensive in the Kharkov region has been very successful for the Ukraine troops as it has forced the Russians to withdraw to a more defensive position. It is the first successful counter-offensive by the Ukrainians. An earlier counter-offensive in the Kherson region was a failure. While it is a much needed victory for the Ukrainians and NATO it is yet to be seen as a trend or just a setback for the Russian advance. It seems that there is increasing pressure on Ukraine to show results if it wants continued aid for their cause. This will surely create positive political situation for those who want to increase military aid to Ukraine. 

Neither Russia or NATO is willing to bring an end to this conflict without a clear defeat or victory. Sadly the civilian population of the areas recaptured in this Ukrainian push will suffer the consequences of having lived and survived the Russian occupation. It is reported that the violent purging of those who attempted to just get along will be quick to send a message to others not to cooperate with occupying forces.

While it is victory for Ukraine, in the long run it is likely to be a temporary situation, as Russia cannot accept defeat in this conflict. So far they have used limited numbers of forces, mostly WW2 era artillery and avoided taking out the infrastructure of Ukraine. They have not destroyed the public buildings, the bridges and railways. While they have concentrated on attacking infrastructure moving military aid, they surely could take out much more. Likewise we have not seen any use of their more sophisticated weapons, possibly not wanting them to be a subject of research into countermeasures.

It is reported that Ukraine will attempt other counter-offensives in the coming days. Most likely it will require a escalation by the Russian forces to more advanced weapons or more troops. With a population of 130+ million, we can assume that if necessary, Russia can increase its capabilities if necessary. 

It seems that the political situation in western Europe requires that Ukraine make progress if it is to expect to continue to receive aid. There are many facets to this conflict and the economic survival of western Europe is to be at risk in the coming months. It is not easy to predict the actual outcome, but it may soon require either negotiations or escalation. 

It is a sad situation for the civilian population of Ukraine who suffers at the hands of both sides in this conflict.