Referendum in eastern Ukraine to be completed tomorrow.

 VOTE IS CONCLUSION OF PROCESS BEGAN IN 2014

WILL SPELL DOOM OF ANY NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT

Voting is underway in four regions of Ukraine to decide whether they support annexation into the Russian federation. Donetsk and Lugansk have had a voter turnout of 77 and 76% as of Sunday with 2 days remaining. Zaporozhye  has had a turnout of 51%  and Kherson a turnout of 49%. A majority participation is necessary to have a binding referendum.

While the West will surely never recognize any vote as legitimate, it is the conclusion of  a process that began after the Ukrainian revolution in 2014. The eastern parts of Ukraine, which had voted overwhelmingly in support of the overthrown government, immediately declared their independence from Ukraine. This resulted in an 8 year conflict between the separatists and Ukraine. In early 2022 Russia announced their recognition of these regions as independent of Ukraine. This vote, if in the affirmative to join Russia, will likely be approved by the Russian Duma.

While many will opine that the vote is illegitimate, it will be considered binding by Russia and will change the complexion of the conflict in Ukraine. While the western press ignores the formalities considered by Russia as unimportant, to Russia it seems everything has a process and a consequence.  When these regions are considers part of Russia, it opens the door to Russia to a new approach in this conflict. Russia will then consider any attacks on these regions as an attack on Russia with, according to Russian law, the necessary response.  This may be the end of the label," Special Operation" which had meaning in Russian law and process. 

While to now, this has been a limited conflict on the part of Russia it is likely to take on a new face in the near future. Russia has what is called a reserve force of 2 million, this is made up of former military personal, much like the reserve forces in the U.S.  They have now activated 300,000 of that reserve force. Contrary to the western media this is not a draft of untrained or new recruits.

The stage is now going to be set for the next phase of this conflict, with more manpower and the ability to use more sophisticated weapons, we can expect a escalation in violence. This coupled with the onset of winter, frozen ground and the elimination of forest cover change the dynamics of this in favor of Russia. 

Then of course understand that Ukraine is still dependent on Russian gas which is still their main energy source and continues to have revenue from the transit of gas to Poland and and other western  countries. While this supply has been reduced, it is likely to be eliminated in a broader conflict.

Then there is the ongoing energy crisis in all of western Europe which will most likely reach untenable dimensions in the coming months.

Negotiations will now not be possible and in hindsight the rejection by the U.S. and the UK of a tentative agreement between Ukraine and Russia, in Turkey in the siring, that would have made Ukraine a non-aligned, neutral country, with guarantees to their borders was a defining moment. The insistence that Ukraine become a NATO member may have sealed the future of Ukraine.