Poland now mobilizing military.

 POLAND MAY BE READYING FOR BUILDING CRISIS

OR HOPES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF UKRAINIAN COLLAPSE

It has been reported that Poland is in the process of mobilizing up to 200,000 military personal. There has been no announcements about what is the purpose of this mobilization. Speculation by some suggests  that as Ukraine runs low on recruits NATO is hoping to supplement them with Polish troops. I would expect that this unlikely, it would be a very severe escalation of this crisis and Poland would then be another country living on aid from other countries.

It is also reported that Poland has 2.3 million Ukrainian refuges in their country now, many are women and children. It is costing Poland large expenditures to house, feed and educate these refuges. There also has been up to 4 million who have transited through Poland to other countries. As the conditions in Ukraine deteriorate it is likely Poland will have an avalanche of new refuges. It is a good bet Poland is ramping up to either discourage more refuges or to process them to other countries.

The other possibility is that Poland has been complaining about the borders between Ukraine and Poland. They feel that in the wake of WW2 they lost considerable real estate, that is now western Ukraine. These decisions were made by Stalin in the forming of the Soviet Union. 

When the Soviet Union disintegrated into individual countries, these border problems were never addressed. They believe that they have a legitimate claim to much of western Ukraine. They have recently proposed that the western border of Ukraine be removed, this was never fully explained. One other possibility is as Ukraine deteriorates, some may believe that if western Ukraine were part of Poland, they would also then be part of NATO and would be protected form any further Russian expansion.

Much of the problems in Europe for centuries has been the changing borders, ethic populations in border lands and discrimination against minority populations. This was the case with the Yugoslavia break up and the Kosovo/ Serbian situation which is continuing today. It is a large factor in the eastern Ukraine and Crimean situation between the Ukrainian government and the Russian population. We have seen similar disputes in the middle east when after WW1  and WW2, the western powers divided countries for political purposes without considering the natural ethic populations and cultural differences. Many of these disputes continue until today.

Originally countries were formed by clans and tribes who resided in these geographic areas, when these natural boundaries are removed and replaced with arbitrary borders they always end in disputes and often war.