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Friday, December 22, 2023

Ukraine now fully moves to defensive mode.

 RUSSIA MAKING STEADY INCREMENTAL ADVANCES

LOOKS LIKE LONG STRATEGY OF ATTRITION ON UKRAINE AND NATO



The fighting continues along the 600 mile conflict line, with steady pressure and small advances by Russia. Russia has several 100 thousand troops in reserve with enough equipment and supplies for a major concentrated offensive, but it seems that is not the current strategy and may not be the long term plan.

Ukraine is attempting to conscript another 500,000 troops, but it seems that it has expended its supply of motivated personnel. While they are forcibly recruiting new personnel they most likely will never be authentically motivated. They are running short of all types ammunition and most of the troops have been in active combat for over 9 months. Their new orders have been to dig in and attempt to resist any advances from Russia. This 600 mile conflict line has been fortified for near 10 years, it is unlikely they can increase it effectiveness very much. The fighting is intense every day and Ukraine is still putting up a formidable defense.

While the debate over strategy ended for Russia with the demise of  Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was the chief advocate of a intense concentrated overwhelming offensive to end the conflict as quickly as possible. He believed it would save lives and material in the long run. His defeat of Ukraine in Bakhmut was a devastating battle for both sides but was a decisive victory for Russia.

It seems the Russian strategists are content to keep a steady pressure on Ukraine to force them to engage and take losses of men and equipment. It is apparent they view this as a war with NATO and the U.S. and they see the growing economic and social problems in Europe and the U.S. being combined to take a toll on the Wests ability to maintain support for this war. While a major offensive could end this war more quickly, it could also further rally support from the West, including NATO involvement. 

So at present it appears the Russians must conclude a long drawn out expenditure of western resources and Ukraines inability to provide manpower will in the long run be a more permanent victory over both Ukraine and NATO.



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