What are the realistic options for Ukraine?

 TIME IS NOT YET RIPE FOR PEACE

MAY BE RIPE BY TRUMP'S INAUGURATION

We see reports that Donald Trump has opened a dialogue with Ukraine's Zelensky. So far no one in the Biden administration has claimed foul, but I suppose the dialogue let Zelensky know where the incoming president stands on the future of this conflict. It gives him and his staff a few months to consider their options.

So, what are the realistic options for the end of this conflict? 

If the west insists on defeat of Russia and Ukraine as a member of NATO, that is one option. If that is the option, then the U.S. should expect raising combat forces of at least 400,000 and at least 200,000 from each of the major countries in Europe, Germany, France, Uk, Poland and other NATO members like Canada and Spain.  That will require a move to conscription in all those countries as they do not have enough forces to conduct a serious offensive to push Russia out of Ukraine. It will require massive logistics and once initiated will open all those logistic centers in Europe to attack.

Much of Europe is already suffering energy shortages and a loss of manufacturing capacity due to this war, Germany's government is on the ropes, France not much better and approval of the new UK leader, abysmal. Instituting a draft will cause unparalleled chaos in Europe and I expect in the U.S.. I expect NATO is not going to enter this war.

Another option is just keep supplying weapons and materials to Ukraine, more of the same, Ukraine is getting smaller every day as Russia is incrementally moving west and will not pause until they reach the Dnieper river, which is 1/3 of Ukraine. If some sort of accord is not reached they will move to take Odessa, which would be a death blow to any future for Ukraine. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia, it is clear.

The reality is that Russia will not return the 4 oblasts it has occupied, this war was never about real-estate, no matter  the intelligence community and state department narrative. Russia's motive is security and civil rights for Russians in eastern Ukraine. Russia will go to nuclear war before it consents to Ukraine being a member of NATO with foreign bases and missiles on its border. Russia wants Ukraine to be a militarily neutral country in the fashion of Switzerland. 

The west believes that is not Russia's option, but if Russia put missiles in Mexico or Canada would it be acceptable to the U.S.? Or missiles in Ireland?

Ultimately, peace will only be accomplished when Ukraine is neutral and not a member of NATO.  When the EU agrees to have commerce with Ukraine while Ukraine has commerce with Russia, not demand that all commerce with Russia is discontinued as part of their plan.

At present, none of those conditions are in sight, but at the pace that Russia is moving west and the dire position of the Ukraine military, possibly early in 2025 the time will be ripe for all involved to accept the reality of the situation.

The dems and the neocons will then blame Trump for capitulating to Russia and being the Neville Chamberlain of the time. Maybe Trump needs to go on national television and explain the options available in this conflict.