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Wednesday, February 26, 2025

Mideast, quiet but smoldering.

 EGYPT AMASSES TROOPS IN SINAI, IRAN ON HIGH ALERT

STILL EXPECTED ISRAELI ATTACK ON IRAN



So far the ceasefire in Gaza is still holding, but Netanyahu has not held to his part of the bargain on prisoner release. He claims that Hamas is using the hostage releases for political gain, they surely are, but what can be expected, the main thing is that hostages are being released.  It seems Hamas has better PR people than Israel, they have been able to manage to turn this mess into a political victory, if not a military one. 

It seems the Trump Gaza plan is dead. Jordan agreed to take 2000 seriously ill or injured children from Gaza and that is likely the end of it. Egypt has refused to even meet to discuss this plan, but is amassing troops in the Sinai in case Israel decides to reopen the Gaza bombing to force refugees into Egypt. Many believe Netanyahu is itching to end the ceasefire and continue the bombing in Gaza, but is being restrained by Trump while he hopes to make progress in Ukraine. An end to the Ukraine war could lead to some cooperation by Russia in solving these mideast problems.

Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries are interested in rebuilding Gaza, but some believe that rebuilding is not what Israel wants. 

Then there is Turkey, keeping low key, but no friend of Israel, Israeli expansion into Syria will not be tolerated and Turkey has a very well equipped and well trained military.

It is no secret that Netanyahu wants to bomb Iran and would like U.S. assistance, again that would lead to high oil prices, possible assistance to Iran from Russia and the possibility that a retaliation from Iran could essentially disable Israel permanently. An attack is not a sure thing, and the consequences are far more dangerous than the temporary result. The decades old argument of stopping Iran's nuclear program is again a typical red herring, If Iran wanted Nuclear weapons, they would have had them years ago. If they decide to build nuclear weapons, they will get it done one way or another.

While quiet, no resolution in sight and smoldering fires everywhere could be ignited into a conflagration on many fronts.




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