Looks like no escaping U.S. debt, deficit trap.

 UNWILLINGNESS TO ENDURE PAIN WILL HAVE CONSEQUENCES

ONLY SEVERE CRISIS WILL BRING REMEDY

The latest budget was a example of what happens when a country is caught in a debt, deficit trap. While some savings were enacted, the overall budget stayed unchanged and the deficit remained the same as the last budget. The logical reason for this is that if the budget actually decreases and the deficit shrinks it will be withdrawing government money from the economy and an accompanying decrease in economic growth. The other option is to raise taxes, which again takes money out of the economy and has an even worse effect, because it likely will have a greater decrease in economic growth. This illustrates the trap that systemic debt and deficits exert on the political policy makers. No one wants economic pain, it is unpopular, but will happen, likely in an uncontrolled and far greater way.

The best solution would be an oval office address that would lay out the problem, the eventual result, and a systematic approach to a remedy, in effect, telling the country the truth about the serious problem that will soon end in a crisis. The fear most likely is that such a  address would cause a reaction, a decline in the stock market, and other possible negative consequences, so as in the past, hope will replace serious effort to deal with the growing problem. This coupled with the extreme political division will most likely be used as a weapon by the opposition.

I suspect that the hope is that tariffs, increased domestic economic activity,  a lowered dollar will increase government revenues and hopefully make at least a symbolic cut in the deficit. Even then, the debt will grow substantially, and the yield or the cost of interest to the government on financing the debt will also grow, most likely wiping out any savings. This is what happens in a debt spiral, especially when fewer want to hold government debt, so interest has to increase to attract buyers. At the same time the government crowds out business and other borrowers as all savings end up financing the government debt rather economic activity.

This whole thing is aggravated by political tensions around the world, with over half the world moving to an independent economic system that will most likely grow and place democratic socialist countries with large debt in a precarious and declining situation. Fewer countries buying their debt, increasing cost of financing debt and eventually outright default. The positive result of default is that they will will have trouble selling new debt for a few generations.

In the EU, which is in a more vulnerable situation, we see currency controls, the hope to eliminate cash, a Central bank digital currency and the mention of tapping into citizens, "excess savings", this is the quickest way to see people who actually have savings to start moving their money out and into other assets. This is why you see efforts to control cash transactions and withdrawals from personal accounts. This will end badly, so the government then thinks they will control and tax all economic activity, but they will in effect stop all that individual activity that is very important to any economy. It will result in a severe economic decline.

Much could be learned by an objective review of the consequences of central economic control as was the fate of the Soviet Union. It discourages all entrepreneurship and is wet blanket on economic activity. It end in disaster and immense economic pain.

At present it looks the EU  is going to go down the road of more government control in an effort to keep the debt, deficit spiral going, it will undoubtedly end in economic disaster or as historically has been the case looking to war to save them, an unlikely effort, when many no longer have a manufacturing base to be stimulated by war. Hopefully the U.S. can move in a better direction.

Are the Warmongers prevailing?

 IRRATIONAL  AND DELUSIONAL DECISIONS WILL END IN TRAGEDY

HUBRIS AND AN INABILITY TO ADMIT FAILURE

The winds of war are growing more intense and a single incident may now ignite at the least a European holocaust if not a global infernal. European leaders seem to be competing for who can be the most bellicose and threatening in their desire for war with Russia. Trump appears to be joining in one day and talking peace the next. Some actually want war, believing they can engage in a conflict with Russia and prevail without it escalating into a nuclear war. Some believe that no one will ever resort to nuclear weapons and that they can browbeat and intimidate Russia into submission. Both are delusional and are not rational thinkers. 

Putin is the most rational and objective leader today, if you consider the facts without emotion or prejudice. It is now mostly admitted by all that this conflict is a NATO/Russian conflict and Ukraine is just the vehicle to accomplish their goal of the subjugation, dismemberment of Russia and satisfying their lust for the resources of Russia. They are too proud and arrogant to admit that their plan is failing and as in past history they may take down much of civilization rather than admit their grave mistake.

The conflict on the ground is going increasingly poor for Ukraine, they cannot prevail against Russia. Western leaders are threatening to escalate with long range missiles manned by NATO personnel, targeted with US satellite information. It then becomes an open NATO war and Ukraine is just the piece of ground to conduct the war. Russia will not and can not back down for existential reasons, this is not a policy of Putin, but a Russian policy.  

Ukraine under CIA and MI6 direction is also engaging in assassinations and car bombings in Russia of both military and political leaders. There has not as yet been any retaliation for these increasing actions. Last weeks incident with Ukrainian drones and Putin's helicopter could have been the trigger for all-out retaliation, by others in the Russian government. If the day comes that Russia believes their country is in immediate existential danger, there is only 1 rational choice for response and it will not be submission.  

Once this conflict goes to the next level, there will not be any negotiations or any ability to stop the escalation, at present, it appears the apparent substance abusing leaders of the EU will continue on their path to destruction, unless someone intervenes to end this escalation. 

WW3 possibility increases, Trump role dead.

 BOXING EVERYONE IN FOR WAR

MUCH LIKE WW1, BUT U.S. MUST SAY NO

Fact, Ukraine cannot prevail over Russia in this conflict. Only NATO intervention can save Ukraine from defeat and defeat of Russia will end with nuclear war in Europe. While Trump has attempted to act as mediator and co combatant at the same time, it is not possible, without the U.S. getting out of this conflict. That means stopping support of this war now. Sadly the political and internal pressure is much like what happened in WW1, the pressure to save Europe for so called democracy will be enormous.

WW1 started by a series of  incidents and the result of alliances. Germany did not start WW1 but felt obligated by its treaties and alliances. The war was at a standstill and a end was in sight, until the U.S. came to the rescue of Europe and an armistice was declared. Then over a year later the sanctions and financial obligations laid on Germany was the cause of WW2. WW2 was an extension of WW1. The reality is many in Britain and France wanted to keep Germany down as a power in Europe and it was their opportunity. Today they want to keep Russia down, a third world country and access to its enormous resources. It appears that if they cannot do it economically it will be war and they again need the U.S. to be the power to make it happen. 

Zelensky is obligated first to the UK and France. He was not the candidate of the US, the U.S. backed Poroshenko, but Zelensky won by promising the Ukrainian people a peaceful settlement with Russia, then proceeded to commit to retaking Crimea and the breakaway oblasts by military force. Ukraine was backed by all of NATO and they have not prevailed. Now they have to negotiate a resolution or go to all out war. It appears that they are leaning for all out war, especially if the US commits to come to their rescue. Only a NO from the US can stop WW3.

The conflict has been a NATO/Russian war with Ukraine as the provider of bodies. Russia has viewed this as a civil war between brothers and has been restrained in its conduct of this war, contrary to the media narrative. An actual conflict with Germany and NATO will be another matter, it will be the worst bloodbath, likely worse than WW2 and most likely a nuclear exchange. The new leader in Germany seems to be ready to rekindle the WW2 hated for Russia and it is a mutual hatred that if awakened will be deadly. This will be the case with or without Putin, Putin may be the most pragmatic leader in Russia, any replacement will be pushed to be far more aggressive.

It is now a pivotal moment in history.  If the US agrees to be part of a war with Russia, it will be WW3.  Only the US. can avoid this war, by ending all support for the war now. Continuing this war will lead to the worst bloodbath in history.

Attempt on Putin? Massive escalation.

 THOUSANDS OF AIR ATTACKS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND RUSSIA

EU THREATENS LONG RANGE MISSILE OK

In the last week Ukraine has launched over 1000 drones towards Moscow. It is reported that on May 20th during Putin's unannounced visit to the Kursk region his helicopter was swarmed with a large flight of drones. It is also reported that this attack coincided with a increase in U.S. surveillance activity in Romania and over the Black sea. It seems this incident is being downplayed by most of the media, if mentioned at all.

It the last few days Russia has launched hundreds of drones and missiles toward Kiev and other Ukrainian cities. It appears that these have mostly targeted drone manufacturing and other military targets and some speculate that many have targeted NATO personnel in Ukraine. All these attacks by both sides result in debris from anti-aircraft missiles falling and injuring civilians in the area. 

What exactly is going on is unclear, but some conjecture that there is an effort to derail any decisions that would end U.S. support for this conflict or that it is all an effort to increase negotiation leverage. 

On the ground, the Russians are advancing everywhere and now also in northern Ukraine in Sumy and toward Kharkiv, It does not appear that Ukraine can slow or stop the Russian advances. The northern plan is to secure a security zone all across northern Ukraine to deter attacks with drones into Russia.

In Europe yesterday, Merz of Germany stated that Uk, France and Germany along with the U.S. is removing any limitations on long range missile use into Russia. This has not been verified by those countries and it is unclear if Merz is a spokesmen for these countries.

If long range missiles are fired into Russia there will be a serious retaliation and whether anyone wants to believe it, Russia still has been reserved in it spproch to this conflict. They have yet to take out all the rail and highway bridges over the Dnieper river or targeted government buildings in Kiev. They have not targeted government leaders in Ukraine. Further escalation will not change the outcome of this conflict, but will cause much more death and  destruction, furthur hobbling any future for Ukraine. 

Tax bill should stimulate domestic economy, but?

 WILL ECONOMIC BENEFITS INCREASE REVENUES?

DOES NOT REDUCE DEFICIT OR DEBT

The 2026 budget has passed the House and it is likely to pass the Senate, but we can expect modifications. It appears that this bill will have a positive effect on the domestic economy, but does not address the biggest threat to the country, the unsustainable deficit and debt.

There have been numerous cuts in discretionary spending totaling over $160 billion, most of this is grants, surveys, and nonessential spending, but will have an effect on someones present occupation.

We see that the elimination of income tax on tips will be a positive for the restaurant business as it may help to incentivise more people to take those jobs, many have been struggling to have enough personnel. This tax has always been unenforceable and favored restaurants with cash over credit card payments. I suspect that social security and medicare tax will remain. We can expect similar treatment to the elimination of tax on overtime. I guess this is a little justice for those who work 60 hours as opposed to those who work 40 hours a week.

Deductible interest on domestic car loans may help the domestic car business.

There really is not a cut in taxes, just the making of the 2017 tax cuts permanent. These taxes going up, would have been a negative for the economy.

The new incentives and reforms are looking positive except for 1 thing, it does not address the debt and the now permanent deficit spending. This will add to inflation, the cost of the interest on the debt and the possibility of a debt crisis spiral.

With the cuts to the spending they could have sent a message to the world that they were serious about addressing the fiscal mismanagement, but instead they moved the savings to the bloated defense budget. A budget that has never been audited and appears to be giant slush fund for contractors and political donations. I suspect that it's just another threatening message to foreign opponents that we are preparing for war. A better message would have been that we are making the necessary reforms to make the dollar and America a strong nation from within.

I doubt that any Senators will dare to question the defense budget, but will succumb to the narrative that Russia and China are a threat to our survival, when it is they, who through their irresponsibility, is the biggest threat to the nation.

There will not be a ceasefire in Ukraine.

 CEASEFIRE ONLY AFTER PEACE AGREEMENT

ONLY CAPITULATION WILL END THIS CONFLICT

Much was made about a 2 hour phone call between Putin and Trump, but nothing new has been revealed. Russia's terms for ending this are the same as they were in 2022 before the beginning of the conflict. They are they same as they were in 2022 in negotiations in Turkey. The reality is Ukraine in NATO is considered an existential threat to their security and they are willing to continue until some sort of lasting agreement is concluded.

We still here about 30 day ceasefires and western troops in western Ukraine, just NATO expansion by another name, Russia will not consider either.

Somehow the west still believes that Russia will become tired or exhausted and give up and allow a frozen conflict or some other indecisive end to this conflict. It will not happen. While Russia is willing to talk about possibilities and possible trade agreements in the future, they will not back down from their goals in Ukraine. It seems that Trump believes that a relief of sanctions and the carrot of trade with the U.S. will be an incentive to compromise, it is not going to happen. 

Russia has already made the decision that they are on the road to a permanent divorce from economic and political ties to the west. They are looking to the rest of the world for their future business and cooperation. All they want from the west is a security zone to their west and that is Ukraine.

The nonsense that Russia has eyes on Poland or the Baltic states is just nonsense, Russia needs nothing from the west and attempting to be concerned about Russia occupying anything other than a security zone is just foolish talk.

The EU and NATO still want to expand into Romania and Moldova and are still hoping to defeat Russia, yet we see no conscription or serious preparations, still hoping to rope the U.S. into getting involved in a war with Russia. 

This conflict could end very quickly, if the west and Ukraine come to the conclusion that Ukraine will be a neutral country maybe even a member of the EU, but never a member of NATO and no western troops or bases in Ukraine. Until that happens, Ukraine will continue to become smaller, bit by bit, and only when the west decides to give up on NATO expansion will the dying and destruction end.

Ukraine, testing ground for evolution of drone warfare.

 DRONES NOW ACCOUNTING FOR MOST CASUALTIES

DRONES HAVE ALLOWED UKRAINE TO HANG ON

The Ukraine war has become the testing ground for the use of Drones in warfare. Ukraine was the first to extensively use improvised drones to use as surveillance and then to carry small bombs. Russia while having drones, they were behind in this technology, but have now become very sophisticated in the manufacture and use of drones. In fact, both countries have most likely surpassed the western countries in done tactics and manufacturing.

Today drones have surpassed artillery as the leading cause of casualties in this conflict.

Besides drone manufacturing and tactics the evolution of electronic  countermeasures and other sophisticated approaches for defense from drones is evolving.

Ukraine began with improvising cheap Chinese drones to carry small munitions often rigged together in basements and on the fly. They have learned and become much more sophisticated as they adapted to the countermeasures  introduced by Russia. Both countries are using common electronic components supplied from China. Ukraine is dependent on Starlink and Russia has their own independent satellite system.

Russia began by using Iranian drones and some of their own creations, but now may be the leader in these small battlefield drones, produced cheaply and in massive numbers. A $1000 drone can disable a $4 million fighting vehicle or a $20 million tank. Then leaving them vulnerable to artillery fire. 

Now drones can be placed in enemy territory and just lay there until needed, then activated, or they are being manufactured to be able to communicate with other drones and all converge on a target. Soon drones may be able to become autonomous and no longer need to be controlled from some other location which makes them vulnerable to electronic countermeasures.

Today, many of these drones are controlled from locations deep inside Russia by former gamers and non military personnel, a practice that the U.S. has been using for years with larger very expensive drones, which are mostly controlled from bases in the U.S.

There is no other testing method than can offer the experience gained in real battlefield conditions. This war between two sophisticated peer equipped militaries, Ukraine with all the best of NATO and Russia, have had the ultimate proving grounds for drone warfare.

Birthright citizenship, deserves another look.

 GRANTED CITIZENSHIP TO FORMER SLAVES

PRESENT UNDERSTANDING RIFE WITH ABUSE

The Supreme court is going to review the present understanding of birthright citizenship, it is really way past time. The 14th. amendment was proposed in 1866, 1 year after the end of the civil war, it was ratified in 1868. This amendment was proposed to stop abuse by some states that denied citizenship to some former slaves or questioned their citizenship. It was primarily an amendment that gave full citizenship to all former slaves and those who were born to former slaves.

Today we see lots of abuse in the interpretation of this law, in reality many pregnant women migrate to the United States with the purpose of their newborns to be become instant citizens, then opening the door for other family members. This was never the purpose of the law. In 1868 the country did not have a socialist welfare system. There was little advantage to U.S. citizenship except for the opportunity to have a better life. That has all changed, the immediate financial benefits to being a citizen are enormous and has advantages for anyone who is related to this new citizen.

I do not believe any other country on earth has this interpretation of birthright citizenship. The clause that makes a new interpretation possible is, "subject to the jurisdiction", indicating that those in question parents are legal residents, not persons who have entered the country illegally.

It is very possible that after referring to the arguments made about this amendment when enacted, they will find that this should not apply to the children of illegal immigrants. It would be expected that all those who have received citizenship in the past would be exempt from a new interpretation, but it would clarify the original intent of the amendment in the future.

U.S. debt downgraded.

 U.S. LOSES AAA RATING

INTEREST RATES TO RISE

On Friday Moody's rating agency dropped the AAA rating of U.S. debt. It was the fourth and final rating agency to lower the credit worthiness of U.S. debt. The first was in 2011. This will result in a lowering of U.S. treasury prices and a rise in interest rates. It will also add to the cost to service the massive U.S. debt and add to the deficit. It has the risk of setting off a debt crisis spiral with further downgrades and increased cost of servicing the debt.

The proposed budget for the next year, estimated at $6.8 trillion, did cut $163 Billion in discretionary spending, but added most of that to the proposed defense spending budget of $1.1 trillion. The 2026 budget is expected to remain flat with a deficit of $1.7 Trillion. That translates to 25% of the budget in added debt. The proposals are too little too late to remedy the future of the dollar and the ability of the U.S. to sustain its spending and servicing its debt.

The big blowout this year is the huge increase in defense spending, dwarfing the defense spending of the combined spending of all industrial countries. China spent $314 Billion in 2024 and Russia $149 billion in 2024. While it may be more for 2026 it is no where near the budget of the U.S.. Many expected an audit of the U.S. defense industry, but it looks like it is not going to happen. Just another $150 billion in spending with no accountability. A unsustainable policy that may be the biggest threat to the United States. Our fiscal irresponsibility is a greater threat to this country than Russia and China.

The budgets of both China and Russia would most likely be lower if not for the threats and trash talking engaged in by US. administrations for decades. 

The U.S has 750 bases in over 100 counties, the Russians and Chinese maybe a dozen. Much of this defense spending is paid to foreign countries in the maintenance of these bases and bribes paid to keep them there. Military personnel numbers are the lowest in modern history. U.S. military numbers haves declined 36% since 1980. 

How is it that Russia has been able to produce munitions above the levels of the combined levels of the U.S. and NATO with a budget of near $150 billion. How is it that no one in congress or the media has yet to ask that question?

I suspect that the dependence on U.S. government spending by a an ever increasing number of Americans will not be remedied, but will only be addressed when it all collapses. Congress needs to become responsible, not enablers of this addiction to government spending.

Ukraine and EU still not serious about peace talks.

 CEASEFIRE, JUST PLAY TO CONTINUE WAR

 NO CEASEFIRE, UNTIL PEACE IS IN SIGHT

The media today all had the same headline, Putin did not show for talks in Turkey. There was never a possibility that Putin would go to Turkey to talk to Zelensky. It is unlikely that Putin will ever engage in talks with Zelensky. These types of negotiations will not involve the major leaders until all the details have been concluded, which is not on the horizon.

The reality is, that Ukraine does not want to end the war, until it is in a favorable position, it did not happen with the much touted counter offensive or the incursion into the Kursk region and is evaporating by the day. The EU leaders and Zelensky want a 30 day ceasefire to reposition, rearm and fight some more, there is no incentive for Russia to engage in a ceasefire.

Watching Macron, Starmer and Zelensky in last weekend's coke fueled euphoric conclusion that ended with a demand for 30 day ceasefire was just another delusional attempt to find some way to continue this war. In the next few days it is likely that much of the world will see the sham that is underway. We can expect that the media will continue to try to spin some positive view of the whole thing.

While all this is going on, the delusional leaders of the EU are hoping that Ukraine can keep fighting until Russia is exhausted, then they will bring their envisioned new army to conclude the defeat of Russia. It is yet to be concluded, who will be exhausted first, the EU or Russia. 

New leadership is needed in the EU before any real peace deal can be accomplished in Ukraine, they are surely willing to fight to the last Ukrainian and keep engaging in delusional strategies, hoping for some miracle. Their citizens should be demanding mandatory drug testing for all of them.

Trump makes progress to coexistence.

 POSITIVE PROGRESS UKRAINE, IRAN, CHINA 

MIDEAST TOUR AND NORMALIZATION WITH SYRIA

This week has resulted in positive results on many fronts. Direct talks in Turkey between representatives of Ukraine and Russia, a possible step in the right direction. We can expect this to be a lengthy negotiation, but at least there is hope of ending this conflict within the year. The conflict is almost determined, but the details will be important for future peace in the region.

Progress on a trade deal with China, undoubtedly the toughest nut to crack in Trumps tariff negotiations. Also a warming of the political narrative in an effort to avoid confrontation with China.

It is way past time to demand an end to the trash talking by politicians and some members of the administration, this applies to every conflict, it is not productive and is in fact just juvenile behavior.

Trump's business dealings with the gulf countries is very important in establishing a framework for cooperation with the coming bipolar economic situation. A alternative economic system is going to happen, it does not have to be exclusive situation for either group, but can be a cooperative, respectful and continued economic interaction situation. There can be mutual prosperity without any side dominating.

A warming of relations with Russia and China will have a positive influence on negotiations with Iran. No one will gain with a war with Iran, it is in the worlds best interest if some sort of normalization with Iran can be made. Iran has the opportunity to move into a better place in the world political system, a certain amount of trust needs to acquired by all those involved. Iran has an opportunity for a prosperous future, hopefully they take that opportunity.

A step to normalize relations with Syria and hopefully bring some peace to this devastated country.  It is in the best interest for everyone in the region to have a prosperous and safe Syria for the population. It is just a hopeful beginning, but it will take some time to see if this can be accomplished.

This week we did see a step back from a possible WW3, just a step, but we can hope it will continue.

Paying for access to the biggest consumer market.

 MOST MARKET ACCESS IS NOT FREE

MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE MUST BE PAID FOR BY SOMEONE

It is a fact that every time sellers and buyers are offered a forum to conduct business there are costs, usually to the seller, to pay for the infrastructure. This applies to shows and markets where buyers and sellers meet to conduct business.

Another fact is that grocery stores often charge sellers shelf space that is often in the 100's of thousands of dollars per year. These cost help to defray their overhead in providing a place where buyers can easily find the products offered by sellers.

On a national level, the United States is, without a doubt, the largest consumer market in the world. If you have things to sell, this is the market you want to access. Should this market be free to anyone who wants sell their products here?  The reality is this market it supported by a massive infrastructure that is primarily paid for by U.S. taxpayers. 

Domestic sellers help pay for this infrastructure through taxes, fees, permits and other costs. Should foreign sellers assume some of the cost associated with the maintaining of the infrastructure for this massive market?

This infrastructure includes roads, railways and airports all used for the importation of goods to be sold in the USA.

So, how can Americans recoup some of these costs from foreign competitors who have enjoyed access to this lucrative market.

Direct annual payments from sellers to the U.S. would be the fairest possibility. maybe a percentage of their sales. Or maybe their government should assume costs in some way. The other option is a tariff on all goods entering the country.

At present, Trump has placed a 10% tariff on all goods entering the country. It appears this tariff is going to remain, all the other tariffs are negotiating incentives that are expected to be temporary until satisfactory agreements are concluded.

The tariff, while a good idea, maybe not the best solution because everyone will pay for this except domestic manufacturers. This gives the domestic manufactures at least a little repayment for all the costs they have with maintaining this infrastructure. 

The point is, trade is not free, it has lots of associated costs that need to be paid by someone. All partners need to help pay for the costs of this market.

The Secession threat in Canada is real.

 ALBERTA IS LEADING THE DISILLUSIONED

POLLING SHOWS BIGGER PROBLEM THAN JUST ALBERTA

On May 5, the Premiere of Alberta Canada, Danielle Smith,  gave a speech to fellow Albertans and to the leadership in Canada laying out the plans for Albert's future.

According to Smith, Alberta is forming a committee to meet with the leadership in Ottawa to lay out their demands for resolution of grievances that have been festering for at least the last 10 years. Then in the next year the results of these negotiations will be put to referendum to the people of Alberta and included in that referendum will be a vote on whether to have a vote on Secession. 

Smith made it clear that she hopes that the concerns of Albertans will be taken seriously by the leadership in Ottawa. Smith claims the western regions of Canada are the main income producing parts of Canada, and in effect they are subsidizing the eastern part of the country. The other issue is that the policies that have been coming out of Ottawa do not recognize or take into account the concerns of Albertans. These policies have hampered and obstructed Albertans in their economic pursuits and Ottawa seems to have a low opinion of the working people of Alberta. 

The speech made it clear that this is a serious concern and in the end the people of Alberta will be voting on their future by 2026.

Canada is a resource country, one of the largest in the world, most of its GDP come from resources and it seems the eastern elite would, in effect, like to end that as it seems to be below their idea of how life should be conducted.

Polling shows that Alberta is not alone, the citizens of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and northern British Columbia have very similar opinions. It is likely that if Alberta goes down this path, more will follow very quickly. 

Western Canadians are conservative and all very independent, a secession from Canada would most likely be a vote for independence, I would expect they would not be interested in exchanging masters in Ottawa for masters in Washington.

It seems much will depend on the ability of the new government to appease the western Canadians or will they double down and insist on obedience. It does appear that pivotal diplomatic decisions on the future of Canada are going to have to be made.

EU demands immediate ceasefire OR?

 SANCTION EXPANSION TO MORE COUNTRIES

DESPERATION LEADS TO DUMB TALK

This weekend, Zelensky, Starmer, Macron and several others had a meeting and decided that they needed to demand that Russia engage in a 30 day unconditional ceasefire. Their threat, if not accepted, is that they will impose crushing sanctions on Russia. I am amazed that they have any more sanctions to impose on Russia. I suspect they are now considering placing sanctions on China, India or any other country that is trading with Russia. It will have the same effect as former sanctions, further destruction of their own economies with no result to end the conflict in Ukraine.

Russia's response was that they are willing to engage in direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul. It is no secret as to their position, it is the same as it was before the conflict began, only that everyday Ukraine loses more ground that Russia does not desire to return. 

Zelensky then made his demand to have face to face negotiations with Putin, another non starter. I suspect that Putin will never engage in talks with Zelensky, who Russia believes is an illegitimate leader since his term expired a year ago. If talks happen, it will be the usual lower level negotiators. I am doubtful that talks will happen as Zelensky and his allies in the EU are not ready to admit defeat. 

An unconditional 30 day ceasefire is an obvious attempt to allow Ukraine to reorganize and refresh it supplies and manpower to fight some more. Without serious offers to end the conflict, Russia will not enter into such a ceasefire, even if there should be negotiations.

As for Trump bringing an end to this conflict, it is clear that no American president can act as a co-combatant and a mediator at the same time. While Erdogan of Turkey is a notorious double dealer, he is the closest thing to a non partisan actor in the region.

At one time there were neutral player in Europe, but that is now past, there is no one that can act as a mediator, who has not taken sides.

It should be expected that this conflict will continue for some time, until someone,  probably Ukraine, is in a position similar to WW2 Germany or Japan. It is likely the only solution that can end in lasting peace.

Who won WW2 and who was the winner?

 POLITICAL NARRATIVE CAUSES DIVISION, EVEN ABOUT WW2

WHILE SOME REMEMBER VICTORY, OTHERS HATE CONTINUES

President Trump created controversy when he stated that the U.S. won WW2, he did add that the U.S. manufacturing capacity was a big part of that victory. The reality is that it was a joint victory and with any one part being absent the outcome could have been different.

The battle of Britain, primarily an air war, was instrumental in maintaining a base for the distribution of supplies from America to the allies.

The United States was indeed the "Arsenal of Democracy" and without that aid, particularly early in the war, the Germans massive and most productive industry in Europe would have been hard to beat. Eventually Britain was able to produce large amounts of aircraft and the Russians industry produced massive amounts of tanks and equipment.

As for the actual fighting and dying, the Soviet Union accounted for 80% of the german military deaths, estimated at 5 million, while losing a combined 26 million military and civilian deaths. 10 Million military and the rest from bombing, starvation and disease deaths. The German deaths on the western front were estimated at around 600,000 military and near 500,000 civilian casualties from bombing. Uk deaths 385,000, U.S, deaths in Europe 250,000. Polish deaths over 5 million. The facts don't lie, without the fact that the majority of war was fought on the eastern front and in effect that fighting crippled the German military machine, which allowed the western allies to build and prepare for the retaking of western Europe. I would wager that if there was no eastern front, there would not have been a D-day.

Yesterday we saw Russia celebrate in Moscow the 80th anniversary of the end of WW2. Many in the west opposed the celebration, even boycotted and forbid the mention of Russia in western countries, a sad display indeed. If not for the Russian effort they would all be speaking German.

The west still cannot understand the concern of Russia for its security on its western border. Some may call it paranoia, but it has experienced a history of western invasion, by France under Napoleon, The British in Crimea, the basis for the famous "Charge of the Light Brigade" and then the devastating damage from the Germans. These invasion are etched deeply on the combined memory of Russians.

You can decide who won the war, but the big winner from the war was the United States. Most of the world was devastated, it industrial capacity destroyed and only the U.S. stood untouched with a massive industrial capacity and its Gold Reserves swelling by 400 % from the payments from lend lease transactions with the allies.

It took at east 20 years for Japan, Germany and even Britain to recover. That was helped by U.S. aid in investment and protection, enabling that recovery.

Most of present day Americans have benefited from the U.S. standing in the world and the U.S. has thrived for most of the 20th century. The reality is that the U.S. has squandered its good reputation and its industry and it financial power with mismanagement and hubris and a lack of moral standing in its relations with much of the world in the last 30 years. 

The first step in regaining that standing is admitting its failures and its errors, without that recognition it will continue to have far greater problems in the future.

Houthi/U.S. Ceasefire?

 U.S. TO STOP BOMBING, HOUTHI TO STOP TARGETING U.S. SHIPS

NO MENTION OF HOUTHI ATTACKS ON ISRAEL

President Trump announced yesterday that the Houthis' and the U.S. have mediated a deal through Oman to end hostilities between the two countries. Goal seems to be to facilitate shipping through Suez canal. 

Before the U.S. intervention the Houthis were targeting ships destined for Israel, after the intervention no shipping was going through the Suez canal. 60 % of this traffic is headed for the Europe and one can expect they were also pressuring for an end to this conflict.

Of course, it is likely that both have incentives to abide by this agreement. The Houthis' were suffering damage to infrastructure and death to its citizens. The U.S. involvement was costing billions in limited ordinance that is in big demand and also needed for U.S. security. A continued conflict raised the possibility of eventually costing the U.S. the loss of a valuable ship and many lives. There is a growing reality that in today's use of modern missiles and drones, sea power is much more vulnerable than in the past.

This experiment was a learning experience to the U.S. that it is not as easy as in the past to project power through sea power. The Houthi seem to have developed a sophisticated missile program, what kind of problems would sea power have against a peer opponent? 

It seems there was no mention of Houthi attacks on Israel, It seems that Israel will now have to deal with this situation on their own. In fact they immediately conducted an attack on Yemen's airports in response to Houthi attacks on Israeli airports. Maybe they will now have to negotiate their own ceasefire.

Trump ends funding for "Gain of function" research overseas.

 U.S. RESEARCH UNDER REVIEW

IS THE U.S. THE LEADER IN THIS RESEARCH?

It is reported that President Trump has issued an executive order ending funding for "Gain of Function" research overseas. This research is an endeavor to aid in the ability of animal viruses to be able to infect humans. So far, I have yet to hear a reasonable excuse for the reason for this research.

President Obama made a similar effort to ban research in the United States, then the National Institute of Health funded the research in Wuhan, China, were it is  suspected that the Covid-19 virus leaked from the lab. Again, no one is willing to answer the big question, WHY is this research being conducted.

In the last year, a University in Boston made the statement that they had been successful in creating a much more deadly and more infectious strain of Covid virus, no explanation as to value of this research.

We also learned that the U.S. has operated dozens of Virus and communicable disease labs in Ukraine, near the Russian border. Again, never a real explanation as to what they are doing.

One must wonder if this country is still engaging in dangerous biological warfare or population control research?

While Trump's order bans funding for overseas labs, it does not ban funding for domestic research, but does put it under review, hopefully we will get some explanation of the purpose of this research.

I would hope that not only funding is ended but the research should be banned worldwide, it does not appear to have any positive impact on the human race, only the increased chance of another leak or possibly intended use of these agents for negative consequences for humanity.

The present money system is unsustainable.

 THE WORLD IS AWASH IN DEBT

FIAT CURRENCY ALWAYS ENDS IN DISASTER

It seems everyone and every country is in ever increasing debt. The United States, while not he worst offender, leads the world in overall debt. The total private and public debt has increased from $28.6 Trillion in 2000 to $93.5 Trillion in 2022. What has allowed the United States the ability to amass this debt is the fact the Dollar is the world's reserve currency. This situation was enabled by the Bretton Woods conference in 1944. At that time the dollar was considered, "as good as Gold" and was backed by actual silver and gold reserves. That came to an end in 1971 when the U.S. ended the gold backing. $1 dollar in 1971 is equivalent to $7.90 today an inflation rate of 689%.

There is no currency in the world today that is backed by anything of real value, this allows governments to produce as much currency as it feels it needs without any limit. 100 years ago, all currencies were backed by some amount of silver and gold. This present situation robs savers of their labor and encourages everyone to spend their earnings, rather than face higher prices in the future. Many today do not have any substantial savings, but large amounts of debt. The situation today is far worse than in 2008 when the last debt bust was encountered. In fact, the situation was prolonged by encouraging more debt both public and private to keep things going.

One of the problems is the systematic failure of Democratic Socialism to engage in responsible fiscal policy. Promises of more benefits, in exchange for votes has become the norm,  not only from the private sector, but defense contractors and others who have their hopes on government expenditures. There is an endless line of lobbyists with their hand out for some sort of government funding. It is unsustainable and no one has the fortitude to tackle this impending crisis.

The Bond market it he biggest market in the world, not energy or food or all commodities combined. The buying and selling of government and corporate debt is by far the biggest enterprise in the world. That alone should tell us that something is wrong with the present situation. The trading of worthless paper with the hope of repayment is were much of commerce exists today.

It can and will most likely all implode in the very near future. In the U.S. the interest on this debt will soon be the government's biggest expenditure. This coupled with much of the world organizing a separate system, not dependent on the dollar, because of this irresponsible behaviour, will be the downfall of the present system that cannot be sustained.

The real answer is a return to currency being redeemable in something of real value, this limits the ability of nations to engage in deficit spending, stops inflation and encourages saving.  Anyone who suggest asset backed currency is accused of retuning to this archaic system of the past and that it would be impossible. It is difficult and painful, but not impossible.

The alterative that is going to be offered is a Central bank digital currency, something without any real value, just a computer entry. The dream of all authoritarian governments, that can monitor, tax, confiscate and control all financial transactions.The end of all liberty, and the ability to resist oppression.

I suspect somewhere in the near future this idea will be attempted to be sold, as the answer to the coming crisis. 

Only changes of EU leadership can bring peace in Ukraine.

 THEY ARE ALL ON THE WAY OUT

NEW THINKING AND NEW APPROACH NEEDED

This weekend we see that the anti-war candidate has won convincingly in Romania. This after the EU voided the last election after the winner won 23% of the vote, the replacement candidate has won 40% of the vote. Romanian voters are beginning to understand that they do not want to become pawns in the west's war with Russia. 

In the UK, we see the reform candidates won a large number of seats and that the present 2 party system is declining in appeal, no wonder, when no matter who is in power the policy stays the same. Will they soon be locking up the leadership of the reform party?

France is on its way to outright civil war after removing Le Pen from the ability to run for election and now Germany wants to outlaw the leading opposition party AFD.

The smell of desperation is getting more intense with every damaging exertion of raw political power. Democracy is just a pleasant phrase, but not a reality.

Trump's window is closing on his ability to change U.S. policy that was at the root of the Ukraine war. He has some credibility since he is a new face, but the forces within are continuing to hamper any changes in U.S. foreign policy. Changes that are needed, if the U.S. is going to partake in the evolving global economic order.

Much is made of liberal globalist candidates winning in Canada and Australia, not surprising, they are still basically part of the British Commonwealth or Empire and have not realized their path is destined to fail.

The existing forces may prevail and control the western policies, but they will end in failure, they no longer have the industrial, economic or military power to control the world. If they continue to the point of failure, the future of the west will be far poorer without a recognition of a need for coexistence and cooperation.

Waltz, Kellogg, Ukraine mineral deal.

 WALTZ OUT, NO TO ATTACK ON IRAN

UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL, MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING

Yesterday we hear that Mike Waltz, national security director was moved to Ambassador to the UN. It was no surprise, this was baked in after Waltz caused a big stir by having a reporter on his email chat. He and his associate are both out as of yesterday. Marco Rubio is going to temporarily take over his duties. One must believe this move is a silent NO, to attacking or supporting attacks on Iran. This move and the placing of more sanctions on Iran give more credence to the fact that Trump does not want to start a war with Iran and for good reason.

One must expect there will be other changes coming, one is Keith Kellogg who is supposed to be the Ukraine envoy, but seems to spending his time in Europe talking to the EU representatives and Ukraine with deals that are never going to be acceptable to Russia. This position is irrelevant, unless he is just to keep the Europeans hoping on a settlement that will insure their economic interests in Ukraine.

Then there is the much touted Ukraine mineral deal that both sides seem to have differing opinions what it means. Hopefully it will be more clear when it is made public.

Most of the areas were there are minerals are now under Russian control and it is very unlikely that situation will change. Trump considers this as a payment for past support, Ukraine that it insures future support. The reality is that it just looks like some sort of insurance to contest the UK's 100 year deal on the same minerals. It may also just be an attempt to show that some progress is being made, when in fact little is happening other than Russia continuing to move the conflict line steadily to the west.

The real situation is that there will not be a Ceasefire and that the motto,"As long as it takes" may eventually apply more to Russia than the west.

Israel/ Iran asymmetric war?

 WAR, ONE WAY OR ANOTHER

IS MAJOR CONFRONTATION UNAVOIDABLE?

In the last week we have seen 2 major explosions in Iran, both having to do with military supplies. Iran was quick to describe these incidents as accidental, but many are speculating that is just some covert actions by Israel.

Now we see major fires all around Jerusalem and one must wonder if this is a retaliation for the incidents in Iran.

The reality is that Israel does desire a major confrontation with Iran, but only if it is backed up by the United States. One must wonder if Israel is hoping for a response from Iran that will give Israel an excuse to attack Iran. 

Provocations from Israel like the assassination in Tehran of a Hamas leader on inauguration day in Iran, that Iran let go without a response, lead some to speculate that Iran is weak and afraid to respond to Israel. Others have a different opinion and believe that Iran is not going to take the bait and attack Israel, because it is indeed well prepared and feels time is on it side.

Iran is well connected with Russia and China as a pivotal part of the BRICS economic group, because of its geographic location for trade between the major BRICS countries. We can expect that there is communication and council that time is on the side of Iran. 

Israel has squandered its opportunity for global sympathy and support by its response to the Hamas attack near 2 years ago, It is still engaged in military action, serious domestic division, a floundering economy and a decline in population as this crisis continues. One may say that Israel took, the soon irrelevant, Hamas bait and is now in a unsustainable situation. Iran will evade a conflict with the U.S.and Israel as long as possible. Will Israel have to be blatant in its attacks to get a response and are they sure that Iran does not have the capability to do severe damage to their country?

It seems that Israel may feel that only war with Iran will end this situation. There doesn't seem to be any peaceful resolution possible and sadly military action will unlikely change the situation in the long run. It is the classic dilemma that leads to major war, a war with no winners in the end.