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Thursday, May 1, 2025

Israel/ Iran asymmetric war?

 WAR, ONE WAY OR ANOTHER

IS MAJOR CONFRONTATION UNAVOIDABLE?


In the last week we have seen 2 major explosions in Iran, both having to do with military supplies. Iran was quick to describe these incidents as accidental, but many are speculating that is just some covert actions by Israel.

Now we see major fires all around Jerusalem and one must wonder if this is a retaliation for the incidents in Iran.

The reality is that Israel does desire a major confrontation with Iran, but only if it is backed up by the United States. One must wonder if Israel is hoping for a response from Iran that will give Israel an excuse to attack Iran. 

Provocations from Israel like the assassination in Tehran of a Hamas leader on inauguration day in Iran, that Iran let go without a response, lead some to speculate that Iran is weak and afraid to respond to Israel. Others have a different opinion and believe that Iran is not going to take the bait and attack Israel, because it is indeed well prepared and feels time is on it side.

Iran is well connected with Russia and China as a pivotal part of the BRICS economic group, because of its geographic location for trade between the major BRICS countries. We can expect that there is communication and council that time is on the side of Iran. 

Israel has squandered its opportunity for global sympathy and support by its response to the Hamas attack near 2 years ago, It is still engaged in military action, serious domestic division, a floundering economy and a decline in population as this crisis continues. One may say that Israel took, the soon irrelevant, Hamas bait and is now in a unsustainable situation. Iran will evade a conflict with the U.S.and Israel as long as possible. Will Israel have to be blatant in its attacks to get a response and are they sure that Iran does not have the capability to do severe damage to their country?

It seems that Israel may feel that only war with Iran will end this situation. There doesn't seem to be any peaceful resolution possible and sadly military action will unlikely change the situation in the long run. It is the classic dilemma that leads to major war, a war with no winners in the end.




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