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Thursday, May 8, 2025

Houthi/U.S. Ceasefire?

 U.S. TO STOP BOMBING, HOUTHI TO STOP TARGETING U.S. SHIPS

NO MENTION OF HOUTHI ATTACKS ON ISRAEL



President Trump announced yesterday that the Houthis' and the U.S. have mediated a deal through Oman to end hostilities between the two countries. Goal seems to be to facilitate shipping through Suez canal. 

Before the U.S. intervention the Houthis were targeting ships destined for Israel, after the intervention no shipping was going through the Suez canal. 60 % of this traffic is headed for the Europe and one can expect they were also pressuring for an end to this conflict.

Of course, it is likely that both have incentives to abide by this agreement. The Houthis' were suffering damage to infrastructure and death to its citizens. The U.S. involvement was costing billions in limited ordinance that is in big demand and also needed for U.S. security. A continued conflict raised the possibility of eventually costing the U.S. the loss of a valuable ship and many lives. There is a growing reality that in today's use of modern missiles and drones, sea power is much more vulnerable than in the past.

This experiment was a learning experience to the U.S. that it is not as easy as in the past to project power through sea power. The Houthi seem to have developed a sophisticated missile program, what kind of problems would sea power have against a peer opponent? 

It seems there was no mention of Houthi attacks on Israel, It seems that Israel will now have to deal with this situation on their own. In fact they immediately conducted an attack on Yemen's airports in response to Houthi attacks on Israeli airports. Maybe they will now have to negotiate their own ceasefire.



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