Trump only has one more war to avoid.

 ONLY VENEZUELA IS STILL IMMINENT

PRESSURE TO PULL TRIGGER WILL BE MASSIVE

The pressure to go to war has been intense for the last 10 months, so far, Trump has avoided getting the U.S. into a major war. While we all witnessed the strike on Iran, many still believe it was a way to end the pressure by declaring victory. At present, the possibility of war with Iran by the United States or even Israel is much less. The ceasefire in Gaza, no matter how meaningless, is still a political reason to avoid war with Iran and Iran is now prepared in such a way that such a conflict could be disaster for Israel.

It is clear, that the United States is disengaging from the Ukraine conflict. While the EU countries still talk of entering the war, they will not, without the support of the U.S.. The latest peace plan, while a step to satisficing many of Russia's conditions, will not be, or can be, supported by Zelensky, as long the the hard right has the power to stop any peace plan. With the government is in disarray due to corruption revelations, Zelensky will most likely need to be replaced for any serious effort to stop this war. While Russia has not offered a position on the plan, they understand that Ukraine will  not accept any plan that gives up territory and saves them from rejecting the plan. Russia wants an end that will result in long term peace and security and that requires a WW2 type of ending.

Then there is Venezuela, this may be, at least for now, a situation that Trump needs an exit opportunity. One can speculate that his advisers have assured him that the threat of military force will pressure Maduro to flee or for the internal opposition to stage a coup. While there is opposition to Maduro, and many claims of voter fraud, it is still a 50/50 situation with the population, much like the United States. An attack will most likely rally support, giving Maduro a plurality and could be a disaster for Trump. Just what Trump's opposition dream of. 

Venezuela has rallied its military and other supporters, possibly enhanced it's air defenses with Russian anti-aircraft equipment and if started, will cost the lives of many on both sides. While ultimately the U.S. would  prevail, it would be a political disaster for Trump and the U.S..

We must all admit, Trump can be very slippery, either subtlety or even outrageously transparent. One can expect he can find a reason to declare victory one way or another, without going to war. It will be interesting to see if he can wiggle out of this without appearing weak or indecisive.

We are now all the audience to this global reality show.

 IT WILL CONTINUE EVEN AFTER TRUMP

AUDIENCE IS ALSO AN INTERACTIVE PARTICIPANT

We all witnessed the opening of this ongoing real life reality show with the introduction of Donald Trump as a main player in this ongoing saga. Many believe it was just Trump, but while he has savored this new ability to take center stage, it may have more to do with the internet, new alternative media and the ability to stream global events in almost real time.

In the past, we were at the mercy of the established media and often did not have access to real events until days or weeks after the fact and then it was often edited and manipulated to create the right narrative. While that still goes on, the manipulation is now part of the story. The media is also an interactive part of this ongoing real life drama.

While Trump may be the first to understand this new reality, I suspect other players are now recognizing this opportunity and making the most of it. Putin,  Zelensky, Xi, Khomeini, Netanyahu and Maduro are now also big players in this new story.  We can hear them and see them in near real time and they are able to become real participants and real people rather than just some caricature created by the media. 

The story, the play, the characters are real and come with all the human weaknesses, strengths and failings. We can watch all these human emotions and human nature on display, no less than in the best Shakespearean play. 

Much like the best theatrical production we have multiple plots and subplots some connected to a big picture cooperation, some isolated. Some are short lived and some continue for years. 

Then you have the ability of the audience to then become an interactive player in many ways, protests, coordination with the main actors and I suspect that it has led to an increase in voter participation fueled by emotions created by this new global reality show.

While we watch the show, we all must speculate what the ending of this show will be, as the plot thickens we are led in many direction and speculations as to what the end of the story will be. Then again, I suppose there will never be an end or final act as long as the internet and the ability to watch and participate continues.

Is the exodus of Ukrainian officials beginning?

 CORRUPTION SCANDAL AND LOOMING  ECONOMIC  COLLAPSE 

THE SO CALLED HANDWRITING ON THE WALL

The recent scandal involving graft and fraud in Ukraine has now led to the resignation of several government officials. At the same time others seem to be exiting the country for diverse places, including Zelensky's business partner, Timur Mindich who left for Israel the day before the corruption scandal broke. He has since been charged with running a corrupt organization, but there is no extradition treaty with Israel. 

It is also rumored that some official who are now in Turkey for negotiations will not be retuning, that will soon be determined.

The law that forbids the exit from country of those between 18- 60 does not apply to government officials. Any opportunity to conduct business out of the country could be used as an excuse to leave and simply not return.

It is also reported that over 100,000 men of draft age have fled the country in the last 3 months. While they are  considered to have broken the law, neighboring countries have been resisting forcing them to return to Ukraine.

It has been reported for years that all of the top officials have residences in other countries, often owned by sheltered corporations, the U.S. and Monaco have often been mentioned. Many of their families are already out of the country.

It seems that this latest corruption investigation has triggered some to consider that it may be the right time to exit. This and the uncertainty of the ability of the government to find the revenues or funds to sustain the government in the future.

Epstein story, salacious interest, but no real revelations.

 IT IS CLEAR, NO ONE IN POWER WANTS THE TRUTH

SEX IS NOT THE REAL STORY

While the Epstein story is now again prevalent in the news, there doesn't seem to be much interest other than sex. We all know that Sex sells, and the focus on this story, by people who know better, has always been on Sex. No better way to hide the truth about the Epstein Enterprise than shift the focus on what arouses everyone, Sex.

I suspect, most of the media, all of the political leaders, both democrat and republican, every intelligence agency in the U.S., and many foreign political and intelligence leaders know the truth about Epstein's activities. They all believe it is in their best interest to let this affair to just go away.

Any objective observer understands that Epstein's connections to the power base of this country was indeed very interesting. He was well known in  higher education with much influence at Harvard University,  particularly the scientific community. He was able to raise large sums of money for many diverse causes from grants for research, to establishing the "Clinton foundation" He has at his disposal massive amounts of money, owning the largest residence in Manhattan, a residence with its own video and sound recording system manned by several professional full time persons. Question, where are these people? Where are are all the tapes and videos? We hear talk of releasing files, but never mention of all the recordings.

He also owned properties in Arizona, and a island in the Caribbean, was supposed to be a master at investment advice, with no real information of any investments. No one has ever revealed where all his money came from. His money could be traced, if anyone really wanted to know.

His girl friend Ghislaine Maxwell, from the Uk, just shows up in Manhattan and hooks up with Epstein, her father Robert Maxwell, a politician and media person in the Uk had unquestionable connections with MI6 and Israeli intelligence. Robert Maxwell's suspicious death and then burial in Israel, where he was buried on the Mount of Olives and given a state funeral reserved for national hero's, attended by the highest ranking members of the political class, indicates he was very valuable to the state of Israel.

So, in effect we are told to believe that Epstein was a sex addict of some kind and all these women were procured by Maxwell to service his needs. The word pedophile is used everywhere, the definition is an attraction to prepubescent women or men. This is generally considered 12 for girls and 13 for boys. This is the standard definition, why is it continually used by the media, masters of good grammar. While many of these girls were under 18, I have yet see real evidence as to the age of these subjects. They are all listed as victims, but they were all paid. Does any one doubt that there are many millions of prostitutes under the age of 18 in this world.  We are told that there are thousands of  these victims, is there a list of these victims by age and sex, with of course redacted names? I have never heard anyone prove any of this.

We see Democrats want to connect republicans for political purposes, always about SEX, but they do not, or do Republican's, other than those who are now labeled traitors or wackos, ask the real questions. It is clear asking the real questions will lead to your marginalization, censure or worse. So media, politicians, and leaders stick to the focus on sex, it sells, and will keep the low brows imagination filled with visions of sexual gratification, while keeping the big secrets, secret.

 

New cold War: Not so cold and more dangerous.

 COLD WAR UNDERWAY AND ESCALATING

NOT JUST 2 PLAYERS, BUT MANY

No one can deny that a new cold war is now underway. This time it is often hotter, enlisting more players and hence much more dangerous. In fact, we could say that we are in the midst of a global cold war that could turn extremely hot at any moment.

The former cold war, that older folks like myself remember, and sadly most of younger generations do not, was mostly an ideological contest between Totalitarian Communism and Democracy, a very simplified description. It was the status quo for 45 years, a contest between the United States and its allies and the Soviet Union and its allies. It started out with the quiet understanding that nuclear war was probable and kept everyone tip toeing around, fearful of triggering such a conflagration. 

The United States engaged in limited wars in Korea and Vietnam, in an effort to contain the spread of Communist ideology. The Soviet Union supported communist governments and communist movements in many places.  At the same time there was an ongoing effort to keep up militarily with preparedness for any conflict arising from this competition. The continual fear of nuclear war kept the arms industry fat and happy without any major all out war taking place.

That all changed in 1991 with the dissolution the Soviet Union, a major turning point in the geopolitical history, an unprecedented event, that while the west declared victory in the cold war, the former Soviet Union struggled to transition from totalitarian communism into a hoped for member of the world community. While it was a mostly peaceful transition, it caused great suffering and pain to the all those involved in the transition. It was a period of optimism around the world. In the U.S. we welcomed the new Peace dividend and the Russian federation proposed and cooperated in many significant arms reduction treaties that promised a more peaceful world. Russia, after disbanding the Warsaw pact and granting independence to those eastern European countries, even proposed Russia becoming part of NATO. The Soviet Union, the leader of the worldwide communist movement  for 75 years was no more and it was rejecting communist economics and moving to a hybrid democratic free market. 

The West with its massive defense network was now adrift, looking for relevance and a unifying threat to keep up the now dominant motivation for many. We saw a short lived focus of fighting drug cartels in Columbia, Panama and other places, but it just did not have the potential for a major unifying defense strategy. It was not long until a new enemy was to emerge to provide the threat and reason for the existence of maintaining a massive defense industry. The Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979 was the beginning of the new threat, Islamic fundamentalism and protecting the oil resources of the Mideast.

The Iranian revolution with the nationalization of their oil reserves controlled by British and U.S. oil companies and the holding of U.S. embassy staff as hostage's was the beginning of the new focus for the nest 45 years. One can speculate that the Iranians did the hostage affair, knowing that they could expect that military action was imminent, and the 1 year gave them time to organize a government.

The next event or action was the Iran/Iraq war which began in1980 with Iraq encouraged and supported by the west. the war lasted until 1988 and claimed the lives of over 500,000 with between 1 and 2 million casualties. Final peace did not take place until 1990. One must wonder if this was the beginning of a series of proxy wars in the global political game.

Saddam Hussein, leader of Iraq spent 10 years with the war with Iran and some suspect that he was made promises by the West, mostly by the U.S. and British. There is documented proof that April Glaspie, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, told Saddam that the west would not get involved in land disputes in the region. Iraq had lost much of its oil fields by the British creation of Kuwait in an effort to control the oil reserves in that region. One can then speculate that possibly because Saddam had not defeated Iran and he also may have been the first to be baited into war. Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991 and he soon found out that Glaspie or her masters had lied. This brought about a huge movement of U.S. troops to the middle east and the first Gulf war with the destruction and slaughter of the Iraqi military.

In 1979 Russia, who has advisers in Afghanistan, invaded in response to the public execution of 20 Russian advisers in Herat. The Russians were tied up until 1989 and it ended its support for other communist movements worldwide. The opposition was massively funded and supported by the U.S. and other western countries. The Islamic forces then became a proxy force that was used more times in the future, including Syria, Libya and Africa. It is estimated that 80% of the forces in Afghanistan were foreign.

All this coincided with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which actually may have created a void in the international balance of powers. This void was openly embraced by the war advocates in the U.S. who claimed the U.S. was the sole super power and began to use that reality to behave in a fashion not present in former U.S. history.

While Russia was immersed in chaos, poverty and struggling to transition to a new political and economic system the U.S. hoped to transform the world into its view of a "New World Order " to many, that phrase used by George Bush 1, awakened fears of world government and encouraged political opposition in the U.S. 

The first gulf war resulted in the permanent formation of U.S. bases in the middle east. An anathema to Muslims in the region and eventually was the reason for the 911 attack on the U.S. in 2001. This attack was organized by Osama Bin Laudon a former Afghanistan fighter against the Soviets. Bin Lauden prophetically predicted that if the U.S. continued to meddle in the middle east they would "BLEED" the U.S. to its eventual collapse. While the U.S. is still in the region  and continues to exert its power, it is shadow of the economic and military power force that it was in 1991.

While Russia struggled in its transition, the U.S. and NATO set out the process of extending NATO membership to countries from the former Soviet Union. Russia protested, but took no action. With the election of Vladimir Putin to the presidency of the Russian federation 2000, the first elected president, Russia was able to focus on the stabilization of the country. Putin is a nationalist with a nationalist view of Russia as a sovereign and independent country. I suspect that fact is one reason why he has been hated by western leaders, who all seem to be more interested in some global end game, even if it is damaging to their own people. That and as the former leader of the world communist movement, that rejected communism, is hated by those Marxists who still exist in those same western countries. The escalation really took off when George Bush 11announced in 2008, that Ukraine and Georgia would be invited to join NATO. 

While the propagandists in the west claimed that Putin wanted to reestablish the former Soviet Union, the reality is NATO expansion is a plan to encircle and eventually dismember Russia, a plan originating in the 1970's and now understood clearly by Russia. It is clear as to the intentions and it is clear that Russia will resist NATO expansion, as an existential threat to its sovereignty. There will not be a settlement that ends with Ukraine in NATO or western troops in Ukraine, even if it leads to nuclear confrontation.

So while the war in Ukraine became hot, and some believe this was the plan, bait Russia into war and then destroy it economically and militarily, it is not working out as planned, so far at least. 

The U.S went on with war against Iraq under the false premise of nuclear weapons and then proxy wars with Libya, Syria and failed attempts in Egypt and Tunisia. We also support conflicts in Chechia, Georgia and Africa provide massive military support to Taiwan and Israel.  Much of our national debt is directly related to new peace we discovered post 1991. That and a diminishing of our image around the world.

While this conflict is between NATO and Russia, we also have the desire to hamstring China economically, force fence sitters like India to become economic and military allies of the west and at the same time insure the protection of Israel by eliminating any power that can challenge its supremacy. This is the new Cold war, a global conflict in the hope of sustaining the supremacy of the western powers, economically, politically and militarily. a hope that may have already expired in reality.

After WW2 the U.S. was the undisputed leader economically, politically and militarily and also with an image of fair play and trustworthiness. The country is no longer the leader in manufacturing capacity, a must to be supreme. It is economically bankrupt, with massive debts, as is the whole western world. It is severely divided politically with no remedy in the near future. While still having equity in nuclear weapons,  the reality of the 21st century that third world countries, while not nuclear, are sufficiently educated technically that rebels in Yemen can stave off the U.S. fleet and air defenses in Venezuela could cause serious damage to U.S. air power. It is no longer the case that nations are unwilling to challenge the Western powers. 

While the EU talks about preparing for war, but has no economic base for such an undertaking, Russia has been preparing for war in reality. A war that no one in their right mind should even contemplate. The U.S. still a world power, but unlikely to do well in an extended long term conflict, would likely need to resort to nuclear weapons in a peer power conflict. So this is again, the new Cold war, a series of threats, intimidation, economically, militarily that serious people do not want to escalate to a real hot war. The resolution cannot come from war, but facing the new reality that world has changed, it can no longer be sustained as it has for the last 80 years. Only the realization that real peace is the only solution. A peace based on mutual respect and a similar realization that was present during the former cold war, that confrontation into real war will not end well for anyone.

Questioning Foreign policy is not racist.

 MORE DAMAGE FROM OVERREACTION

FIRST ISRAEL AND NOW ITS U.S. SUPPORTERS

In recent days we see what is being a called a civil war inside the MAGA supporters or the Republican party. Much of it has to do with the question, is the Trump administration more "Israel first" than MAGA and questions about the U.S. support of Israel have been raised, mostly prompted by the GAZA situation. 

The policies of Benjamin Netanyahu in Gaza is what has focused the world on Israel, Zionism and now the U.S. support for Israel. It is all now under a magnifying glass and details and questions are being raised concerning decades of mid-east war in general and even details about the Oct, 7 atrocity of the Hamas attack and how the best intelligence agency in the world did not see it coming. 

The response to these questions, first by Netanyahu himself, and then by supporters in the U.S.  has been to label anyone who questions the U.S. support as being anti-Semitic. a NAZI, and every form of vile adjectives that could be thought of. These labels have now been applied to even Tucker Carlson, Meghan Kelly and Candice Owens or anyone who should question the extraordinary support that the U.S. has given to Israel. In an effort to silence the questions they have now been spread with a megaphone around the world.

Mark Levin has especially been vile in his accusations, and in todays world his speech at an Israel/Republican conference is all over the internet. His speech just reinforces the arguments of those who question the Israel policy. While it may have played well at the select meeting, in todays world everything can be expected to surface and go viral within hours. The same for Netanyahu publicly calling those who question the policy "Right Woke" It bewilders me how they really believe that this approach will insure continued support from the United States. 

Then there are those who applaud any division in the republican party as a "WIN" no matter how dangerous and destructive. They are going to magnify the potential damage to the nation.

Everyone understand Israel's dependence on U.S. support and anyone with a knowledge of history and public relations should understand that what is happening will undermine Israel's support and sadly also may create real animosity to the Jewish population is general. Real antisemitism is nothing compared to what I have seen growing up in the 1950's, and now they are setting the stage by their false use of the term to create real antisemitism. 

Just as the policies of overreaction by Israel has been counterproductive, so is the vile over response by its supporter in the U.S. in setting the world on a dangerous path.

New corruption in Ukraine exposed.

 $100 MILLION, WHOSE MONEY WAS THIS?

LABLED THE MOST CORRUPT COUNTRY FOR A REASON

Yesterday it was revealed that the head of the Justice department and the energy department in Ukraine have been accused of graft and corruption to the tune of $100 million. I suspect that this is only the tip of the iceberg when in comes to corruption in Ukraine. Way before the present conflict, there have been reports of very fringy business in Ukraine, much of it illegal by international law.

Ukraine has been hoping for a nation status for centuries, it was always under the control of neighboring countries, Ukraine actually means borderland or frontier in Slavic languages. It has been part of Lithuania, Poland and of course, Russia and the Soviet Union. Sadly its hope of a nation state is now more dire than it needed to be.

The country is acknowledged to be very diverse in its culture, eastern Ukraine is culturally closely associated with Russia, western Ukraine with the west. During WW2 western Ukraine sided with Nazi Germany and fought against Russia. Many of the prison and camp guards were Ukrainian. After WW2 western intelligence agencies cultivated this fact to organize internal dissent against the Soviet Union.  The now godfather of Ukraine Stepan Bandera was a Ukrainian nationalist who cooperated with Nazi's in a hope of forming a Ukrainian nation. The Nazi's arrested him and sent him to prison, but was released in 1944. After the war he fled to Germany and was assassinated by KGB agents in 1959. He is revered in Ukraine for his hope of an independent nation state.

Corruption in Ukraine has been notorious, before this conflict it was understood to be a haven for internet servers that were available for rent to anyone who wanted to engage in activities illegal in their country.  Scammers and even political consultant groups used these servers to create some anonymity and avoid authorities in more organized legal countries.

We are all familiar with the pay-offs to Hunter Biden by Ukrainian energy companies and also scams laundering political funding for democrats. We can assume these activities were not isolated to any one party or even to just the United States. Much of this occurred before the country was at war.

Wartime it a prime time for all sorts of corruption to flourish, skimming of massive amounts of foreign money and chaos of war, make it all so easy. Then one must wonder what the CIA was doing in eastern Ukraine with dozens of Bio-labs that we can expect were not possible in the U.S. We have seen no effort to reveal what they were doing and why? Then there are the reports of organ selling from injured young Ukrainian soldiers and also other human trafficking.  We may or we may not ever understand the scope of this corruption even when this conflict ends. We can now expect the Russians will have some answers to these questions, of course, they will be easy to dismissed as Russian propaganda.

I suspect like most places there a lots of honorable and honest citizens in Ukraine, but it is clear that they have never had a government that was up to the standards of a law based system. Most Ukrainians wanted to remain unified and hoped for an independent country, it was demonstrated with votes for Yanukovych, who feared what would happen if the country sought NATO membership. Even Zelensky campaigned as an outsider who wanted to peacefully come to some sort of accommodation with Russia, that's how he won over the U.S. candidate, Poroshenko. It now appears the Zelensky was the MI6 candidate and the poor Ukrainians never had a real choice in their hope of an independent country. Their leaders have been bought and paid for by the western powers in their effort to dominate in this geopolitical game. 

The poor Ukrainians are now encouraged to keep fighting until none remain, to save the images of Lindsey Graham and John McCain and those other western leaders who gambled the future of Ukraine in their lust for the resources of Ukraine and Russia.

While the corruption in Ukraine is the focus of today, the complicity of U.S. and other western leaders in the tragedy of Ukraine, should not be minimized. 

 

Attempting to contain China is a loser.

 TARIFF'S AND SANCTIONS NOT WORKING

CHINA IS NOT DEPENDENT ON THE U.S.

Our leaders in Washington are alarmed that China has grown into a industrial giant. We hear claims that they are cheating, overproducing or selling below costs in an effort to dominate economically.  The realty is they are already dominating in many sectors and are now self sufficient with their many partners around the world.

We cannot restrain China's advancement by attempting to limit what they can buy from us or limiting what we will buy from them. Such practices may cause a slight dip in their GDP, but will soon be meaningless, by being replaced with business in other parts of the world. We will soon find, we will be more damaged than China. 

China has at least 5x the industrial capacity compared to the United States. Its steel production is 12x the United States and now most of the world is buying Chinese steel. It is true that their standards are sometimes not up to our standards, but if demanded they can produce quality steel. 

Our first attempt at containment was an embargo on certain silicon chips, which China was very large customer of U.S. producers. China responded by investing in their own production and is now beginning to dominate in the world market. Our producers are now suffering from the loss of business and the competition. The attempt to put large tariffs on their products led to them restricting export of rare earth minerals that China has a dominant position and will have that position for another decade. 

Japan was their biggest supplier of high quality machine tools with billions in contracts. The U.S. convinced Japan to limit those sales to China and China cancelled its business with Japan and replace it with tools from Russia. Yes, Russia does produce such tools and even U.S. manufactures had to scramble to replace those supplies when we embargoed Russian machined products.

China also retaliated against U.S. grain exports, replaced it with grain from Brazil, Russia, Ukraine and Argentina. 

China has world class modern manufacturing capacity and much of the machinery was purchased from Germany, which is now suffering from massive increases in energy costs due to the embargo on Russian energy.

I could go on and on about the failure of efforts to contain China. The reality is it is not going to happen, we can not raise our stature by weakening theirs, we need to look inward and find ways to compete and become self sufficient.

We can listen to all the propaganda about how China wants to rule the world, but the reality is that China is all about business. They have mastered business, like the U.S. once did in the past.  They have invested much in improving the quality of life for their citizens and while we always claim that they earn slave wages, they have a 30% savings rate and Chinese tourists are all over the world and they are not spies subsidized by the government.

China has money to invest, earned by manufacturing everything and anything. The U.S. government sucks up most of investment money in this country by financing its massive debt, spent not on investment but on consumption. U.S. citizens save a miniscule amount of their incomes, if any.

Then there is competitiveness, we built the Northeast extension of the Pa. turnpike in 3 years in the 1950's, this runs from Philadelphia to near the northern border. Today the planning would take ten years and the project would be a decade or more. They have been improving the interchange in Hamburg for ten years and it is still not done, by the time it is done, it will need to be upgraded, a perpetual job.

We convinced Taiwan Semi conductor to build a plant in Arizona, The plant was delayed because labor issues and regulatory hurdles and when completed is having union other labor problems it does not have in Taiwan. 

Then many are alarmed at China's now big increase in Military production, much of it stimulated by U.S. generals trash talking China and predicting war by 2025. The U.S. is now infamous for big mouthed politicians and generals threatening the competition and then being alarmed when they respond by building up their military. It is time the U.S. leaders realize they can no longer intimidate others into submission, when it is unlikely such a war could be fought or won.

A new policy needs to be implemented and soon, This country needs to look inward and realize we are not the country of 40 years ago, we have lost our manufacturing capacity and willingness to be competitive, we are bogged down with bureaucracy, regulation and a declining work ethic.  

Any attempt to keep us on the top of the heap by limiting others, will be a dismal failure.

The political winners feel good, but no real achievement.

 AMERICANS ARE LEARNING, BUT LONG WAY TO GO

NO CONSENSUS FOR FUNDAMENTAL REFORM

Last week we saw Democrats rejoicing for winning in N.Y. and Virginia and securing their government benefits and voting rules with generous judges in Pa., but no move to do what is needed to salvage the country.

Yesterday, the Republican declared victory in the budget standoff that resulted possibly in a small decrease in the budget totals. An insignificant victory in remedying the path to insolvency of the federal government.

Emotional victories that will do little to do the massive reforms needed to save the country.

While there is hope in that we see many Americans and younger Americans, who are not programmed into party emotionalism, beginning to reject this nonsense, but the country still is not ready to face the daunting challenges on the horizon.

It seems the least focused on actually facing those challenges is the entrenched bureaucracy that just wants the gravy train to keep on running. I suspect they may understand the perilous reality of the future, but believe that they will be retired on the ranch by the time that happens. Most Americans are, sorry to say, economically illiterate, and assume everything is good if the stock market is up and 401K is increasing. Everything is good, until it is not, and then the chances of reform or remedy will be very very painful.

We see cuts to the budget by DOGE that immediately were moved over to the bloated bureaucracy in the Pentagon. A entrenched bureaucracy that is always in need of more money without any accountability or audit. It is considered too big to be held to account. I suspect this could be applicable to many other bureaucracies. 

While many have become numb to the debt and deficit figures, because many have been warning about this for decades, with no serous negative results. We now live in a changing world, the US is no longer the undisputed manufacturing leader in the world, the basis of real wealth creation. The dollar, which will continue to be used, but it is going to be eclipsed and will not be the global reserve currency, not because of foreign conspiracy, but it non longer deserves that status due to the government irresponsibility and fiscal mismanagement. Deficits translate into inflation and a reduced buying power of a currency and an evaporating store of wealth.

The attempt to lure the country into war by the war profiteers and the foreign entanglements in Europe and the middle east, who use our military as their bully big brother, with us paying or borrowing the funding and the blood of our young men, seems to be ever present. It is increasingly being rejected by the younger generations of Americans, a step in the right direction. 

The reality is we no longer can afford the wars, the generous benefits, or the fraud, waste and financial abuse and irresponsibility. The rest of world understands this much better than Americans. 

What is needed is for a President to have an oval office speech, laying out the future realistically, calling on the nation to unite and rally to make the reforms now, before it is too late. Sadly, it cannot happen, the nation, like an addict, is not yet at the bottom, the partisans would eat him alive, and his pole numbers would go to 20%. Like Jerimiah, he understands they want to be told smooth and nice things, victory and winning and an ever bright future, until it is not. 

Healthcare focus should be on cost reduction.

 SUBSIDIES AND THIRD PARTY PAYERS 

NO INCENTIVE FOR COST REDUCTION

It seems there may be some sort of short term agreement on the budget. The big obstacle has been the elimination of subsides for policies based on income for those who purchase a plan on the Obama exchange. Extending subsides and other ideas that help to pay for plans do not address the outrageous cost of so called, "healthcare" in the United States.

The Cost of healthcare in this country is not balanced in relation to peoples ability to pay. It has exploded way over what it should be as a proportion of peoples income. The cost is now 18% of the GDP, near double of the cost in other countries, the cost in 1960 in the U.S. was 5%. Many of these countries have government provided healthcare and it seems it inevitably lead to a decline in service. The per person cost in this country is now near $14,000 a year. 

In is no secret that the cost of healthcare rise is directly associated with the introduction of Medicare and Medicaid. When Medicare was first started, it paid the prevailing rate for service, but as the use of Medicare quickly increased, due to the fact that the cost was paid for by someone else, it quickly led to efforts of the government to cut costs by reducing payments for service. This instigated the practice of cost shifting, where insurance and self payers costs were increased to offset the cutting of payments for Medicare. This practice by government and the reaction by providers has been incrementally continued and increased  for many yeas. This created another problem with increased insurance costs that made many unable to afford insurance at all. Of course the answer is again, more government intervention and the pressure to go to government funded healthcare which will not fix this problem.

Most people get insurance coverage through their employer, the rise in cost has contributed to the non competitiveness of U.S. based companies. It has also raised the cost of education and government through very generous benefits. The co-pays have also increased dramatically. When people have third party payers they will show up for service for the most minor issues,. if they had to pay, they would do a cost analysis for many of these issues. 

The focus of government needs to be shifted from attempting to find ways to pay more to finding ways to cut costs. Only real market forces can do that. It is interesting that non insured elective surgeries have remained much more reasonable were individuals have to pay for the procedure, breast implants and laser eye surgeries are good examples.

There needs to be some new thinking, like employers giving employees a lump sum to purchase insurance. Really create market incentives in the market. Require up front estimates for surgeries and other services, patients could then make some choice based on the charges. It is the only thing we do with no up front revelation, just a massive bill at the end and negotiations either by self payers or insurance companies. Realize, that insurance companies often do not pay the bill that you see, it is often negotiated.

So, the best idea would to gather representatives of all interested parties and look for ways to cut the costs. Providers are saddled with massive amounts of red tape and efforts to get paid. I suspect there is much we don't understand about why these cost have exploded, find solutions to cut costs.

I think Kennedy is correct about focusing on prevention, starting at an early age through diet and exercise. I suspect we will reanalyze the heavy incentives for drug therapy that is costly and often leads to other problems created by the drugs. We need far more education about the dangers of the use of prescription drugs. With 20% of GDP spent on healthcare, we must be the most unhealthy people on the planet, not only physically but economically.

 

Election volatility, voters searching for real representation.

 ELECTIONS ARE SYMPTOM OF CHANGING WORLD

WORLDWIDE PHENOMENON

The election in New York city has many bewildered, how can a openly socialist candidate win this election? Of course, many have still not understood why Donald Trump has been able to win 2 elections for president. Much of this is not so much the allure of the candidate, but the rejection of the existing power structure that is now the being questioned, no only here but around the world. 

In fact, Obama was the pictured by many as a outsider candidate, but soon proved to have the same policies, especially in foreign policy, as the rest. Trump immediately went to the front against a bunch of traditional candidates because he was an outsider, then the outrage and universal opposition of the power structure, media, politicians and experts, just added to that outsider image. The reality is many people, and with 75% of the people under 30 voting for Mamdani, are rejecting the traditional candidates. They are being rejected because most believe they will not change course from the existing policy. A policy that in this country has resulted in a $38 Trillion in debt, and growing, a foreign policy of death and destruction that has not positively effective their lives and the perceived reality that none of them represent them once elected. 

In Europe the leaders of the the UK, France and Germany are under 25% approval  and they are openly attempting to disqualify any opposition candidate or party. There will be huge changes coming to the Eurozone one way or another. 

We see the same thing in central Africa, were traditional candidates are being replaced by those that are shedding themselves of the last remnants of colonialism and are being threatened from outside powers.

There is a strong desire for a change of direction and it is always dangerous because that direction may also not be exactly what people desire. It is obvious that the world order that existed since WW2 is coming to an end. The leading nations of that order are weighed down with massive debts and a loss of direction, other than attempting to keep the whole thing going a little longer. This debt and failure to address issues at home are now becoming evident everywhere. It will require new policies and new thinking, something that has not as yet become solidified into real policy.

Is Venezuela preparing for a serious conflict?

 CAN RUSSIA MAKE THIS INTO A HEMISPHERIC PROXY WAR?

IT APPEARS IT MAY BECOME MORE THAN A FEW DAYS CONFLICT

Reports are increasing of Russia, China and Iran supplying Venezuela with sophisticated drones and other equipment to at least give the United States some sort of damage if it attempts to attack Venezuela. Or will it actually put the cost high enough for the U.S. to rethink any attack at all?

No one believes that Venezuela can prevail against the U.S. if a serious effort is made to win a war. Many wonder if this whole thing was not a bluff to force Maduro to exit the country, if so, it now appears that is not going to happen. This will put Trump in a difficult position, if no attack is made he will appear weak and if he does and suffers casualties and even ships damaged it will not be a positive. It appears Venezuela is making preparations to seriously defend and the introduction of foreign assistance is another escalation, now in the western hemisphere.

The Russians and Iranians may consider this a payback for the support that the U.S. has been providing against them for years. The U.S. has assisted in the death and destruction of their countrymen in their part of the world.

Will this become another Cuban crisis in the effort to challenge the U.S. at home for leverage in what many believe is a system being proposed to concede spheres of influence in an effort to minimize nuclear armed conflict?

We will soon find out, as every day Venezuela becomes more prepared and the cost to the U.S. of maintaining this force is increasing every day. One might expect some sort of negotiated victory for Trump, to avoid actually risking some sort of prostrated conflict with losses for the U.S. military. 

Anticipating war, now the new normal.

 MAYBE LOTS OF POSTRUING, BUT NO ACTION

IS THIS TRUMP'S STRATEGY?

For months, there have been reports of war being imminent, Israel/Iran, long range missiles to Ukraine and now Venezuela. Lots of logistics, lots of assets moving into position, but so far, no action. Is the hope that threats of military action, will cause surrender by Iran, Russia or now Venezuela. If that was the plan it is obviously not working.

In Iran, since the last action in June, Iran has reinforced and strengthened is defenses, its offensive capacity has also been reinforced. Israel is in a far less positive political. economic and military position and the devastation from the last encounter with Iran is now finally being revealed.  The window to attack Iran may be closing, is this Triumphs strategy in these conflicts, procrastinate until the possibility of an attack is far more risky.

While we still hear reports from Ukraine and the U.S. media how Russia is losing and Ukraine is winning, it is clear that Ukraine is about to lose its last pivotal defense hub in Pokrovsk and is losing ground everywhere. While Ukraine still makes valiant attempts to resist they are usually resulting in more loses. While EU continues to talk of escalating, it is clear they do not have the political, economic or military to actually enter this conflict. I suspect Trump and Putin have agreed that they will not risk going to war over Ukraine.

The latest imminent conflict is Venezuela, where the U.S. has moved large numbers of assets into the region, indicating that war with Venezuela is in the works. Trash talk, encouraging Maduro to leave while he can and other threats have resulted in Venezuela taking action, including new defensive weapons from Russia and China to prepare. While the air power and naval power is massive, it would require at least 50,000 troops to invade. I do not expect that Trump wants to get mired in a ground war in South America, it would be magnet for all kinds of anti-American factions to get involved. What would an air campaign accomplish, except alienate most of South America from the U.S..

One must wonder if Trump, really is reluctant to get involved in any wars, but is stalling the neocons in Washington, who seem willing to go to war everywhere, Netanyahu who has been desiring destruction of Iran for decades and the same neocons in the EU who would love to rope the U.S. into war with Russia.

If this Trump's strategy, it will soon become clear, then those in favor of war will either escalate the pressure with false flag attacks or direct pressure on Trump. It is a high stakes game that is costing money, but not as much as war.

A brief history of money.

A BRIEF HISTORY OF MONEY

Money, we are all familiar with it, most want more, some to the point of  excess. It has been described as the, "Root of all Evil".  Realistically, we do need a certain amount, but I would like to talk about a simple brief history of Money.

Originally, most financial transactions were a form of barter,"I'll trade you a goat for that woven shirt that one of your wives made". Or,"I am tired of goats, how about we trade for some of your sheep". This all worked out well and good, but eventually someone got the bright idea of converting wealth to some form of exchange.

There is some record of salt being a form of exchange, or round stones with holes,  but most items were quick to lose their value when someone either found a pit with enough salt to flood the market or a method to mass produce stones with holes.

Eventually they settled on gold and silver as a form of money. Early records show that, as early as 2150 BC, the Shekel and Talent were used in the middle east, These were measures of weight,  A shekel was .36 of a troy weight oz. A Talent was equal to 60 manehs and 3000 shekels. This standard of weight was used by Egypt, Babylon, Phoenicia, Greece, Persia etc.  The ratio was 15 shekel's of silver = 1 shekel of gold.  Everyone had a balance scale to do business.

Finally, as governments grew and became more sophisticated, the minting of money began. This consisted of coins which were of a standardized weight, usually embossed with the image of  the King or individual in power at the time. It made trade much simpler and  must have caused a recession in the scale business.

As is usually the case, it did allow for some skulduggery, clipping and shaving of coins was known to happen. Then Kings sometimes made the coins smaller with the same designation. This may have been the first form of Government endorsed inflation.  "Honey, were did we put that old scale?"

Interestingly, the size and weight of coins varied over the years, but the ratio of gold to silver was fairly constant from 500 BC up to the 20th Century.

Biblical  times-  12-1             Rome          12-1         Europe     0-1492        10-1

Early Greece      13-1             Early Japan  8-1                          1492-1834   15-1

Alexander          10-1             Early China  12-1        England                       16-1

The United States settled on the ratio of 15-1  The Constitution stated that all money was to be gold or silver coin.

O course, we have been talking about gold and silver coins. What about paper money?

In medieval Europe, gold and silver was the medium of exchange. When someone had a little more than needed for survival, they often placed it with a Goldsmith, who had a natural need for security in his business.  He would account for their items and give them a receipt.  The Rothschild's started out this way.  Humans sometimes being a little lazy, and not too careful about things, began to exchange the receipts for other goods and services and leave the gold with the goldsmith.  Goldsmiths, who were a little sharper than the average person of the day, soon realized that his receipts were as good as gold, and no one knew how much gold he really had stored for people. He was able to purchase Real-Estate, finance explorers to the new world and many other endeavors with his own receipts that did not represent gold in his possession. I could expound forever about how they used this power, but I will resist.

There were many known instances were these early bankers got a little too greedy, rumors circulated  that there was more receipts than gold, and a run for their gold started.  When they could not produce the gold,  he might have been found hanging somewhere.

Remember, Politicians and Governments always take note of a good idea to increase their power and wealth.

Early paper money was a receipt for a weight of gold or silver, In the USA. a silver dollar was .7734 troy oz. of silver.  20 silver dollars could be exchanged for 1 Oz. troy of gold, a $20 gold piece. This was a ratio of 15-1. I personally remember silver certificates, which were supposed to be redeemable for 1 silver dollar. Up to 1934 you could exchange a $20 bill for a $20 gold coin. The US dollar had the reputation of being, "as good as gold". The gold-silver ratio today is 72-1.

In 1914, with passage of the Federal Reserve Act,  money no longer represented an asset, but would now represent Government debt. A promise to repay by the government.

In 1934, President Franklin Roosevelt, by executive order, ordered all citizens to turn in their Gold Coins in exchange for paper $20.00 bills. Private possession, or exchange of gold was outlawed. When the government decided they had confiscated all the gold they were going to get, they raised the price of gold to $35.00 oz., this was used for trade between countries. Those wonderful paper dollars they exchanged with the citizenry just became worth 43% less than the gold coins they exchanged.  Citizens were threatened with $10,000 fines and 10 years in jail for not cooperating.  Gold ownership was again legalized in December of 1974.

Silver still circulated as coins till 1964,  when they were replaced by alloys with no intrinsic value.

So now all money that exists, has  no intrinsic value, but only the confidence that someone else will exchange goods and services for it. While there are many instances in modern history where that confidence evaporated, so far most people are still willing to accept modern currency.

Currency itself is now in the process of being replaced with electronic currency, Bitcoin, Debit and Credit cards etc.. Endless possibilities, that will make the ancient clippers, shavers and dishonest goldsmiths envious.

originally published Oct. 12, 2015

It appears we are now coming to the end of fiat currency era, that is currency without any real built in value. What will replace it is yet to be seen. Big government would of course love to have currency that is just a digital entry, that they could manipulate, block, or devalue with a click of a computer. It seems some of the world is exploring another option that would be some form of real money. There is one of those age old truths that good money will always drive out bad money. That is true as long as there is an option of good money available. I expect we will seeing the new options in the near future. 
5/8/23

We now see the plan to introduce a central bank digital currency. Indeed, a monetary unit without any intrinsic value, unable to be held personally. It will allow governments to view every transaction, determine what transactions should be allowed, confiscate all wealth with the click of a computer key and in effect give government ultimate power over the people. It will be the end of all freedom of choice in a free market. It will give government the ability to tax, inflate, confiscate and dictate what can and cannot be traded. It will create all kinds of methods to avoid this trap and will be accompanied with the penalties to enforce that this is the only alternative money.

8/24/23

We can expect the unsustainable debt and deficits of the United States, accompanied by the desire of other countries to flee the use of the dollar, to reach a crisis in the near future. It is very likely that it will soon be clear that this debt will no longer find those willing to risk this haven for their real money. We can expect schemes to rescue this situation with possibly forced investment by IRA and 401's into U.S. debt or a sudden crisis followed by the end of this current fiat money system. We expect the cure to be total control of all assets.

5/3/2024

The EU is pushing to get its CBDC launched this year. As the debt situation in most of the western world is escalating many predict some sort of reset of the financial system. It will most likely be preceded by a debt crisis and then the roll out of the promised solution.

9/27/2024

We now see flight from U.S. bonds from countries around the world. It seems that interest rates are now possibly needed to rise to sell this debt. Those liquidating U.S. debt seem to be buying Monetary metal. The answer to shoring up the U.S. dollar and debt market is a balanced budget. With a $2 trillion deficit either raising taxes or cutting spending will cause a economic recession at best.

1/14/25

The purpose of this article is to hope to make people aware of what money is supposed to be. A store of value, an asset, not an instrument of manipulation by governments. 

3/17/2025

The tragedy of the Ukraine project.

 DOES UKRIANE HAVE A FUTURE?

SAD RESULTS OF FOREIGN INTERVENTION

It is estimated that Ukraine had a population of over 50 million in 1991 when they gained independence from the Soviet Union. The country has had a tumultuous political environment ever since that time. Todays population is now estimated at 26 million. Some of this decline is attributed to the population that is now in those areas controlled by Russia. 

Much of the discord has emanated from the fact that the eastern part of the country is primarily a Russian population, which has had close economic and cultural ties to Russia, the western parts have aspired to join the EU. In previous elections, the eastern population voted overwhelmingly for Viktor Yanukovych. In 2004 the election was close and Yanukovych edged out Yushchenko by a slight margin. The election was disputed and unrest followed with eastern oblasts threatening to secede if the election was overturned. A new election took place in 2005 with Yushchenko winning in a close race. 

In 2010 Yanukovych won 48.9 to 45.4 with overwhelming support in the eastern oblasts. After both these elections there was big increase in lawfare attempting to neutralize opposition leaders. Ukraine extended the lease with Russia for the Sevastopol navel base in Crimea until 2042 in exchange for low priced natural gas.

In 2013 a vote to begin integration into the EU was postponed and led to increased political demonstrations. Russia did not necessarily oppose Ukraine joining the EU, but a stipulation of the EU was that Ukraine would no longer be allowed commerce with the Russian federation. This was not acceptable to the eastern oblasts of the country. There was also speeches by western leaders claiming Ukraine would also be a new NATO member, this was clearly opposed by Russia.

In 2014 the crisis grew, with US. politicians like John McCain and Lindsey Graham speaking to the crowds encouraging them to change their government. Victoria Nuland admitted funneling $5 billion to opposition groups.  Eventually Yanukovych fled the country. This led to the secession of Donbas and Luhansk oblasts and the occupation of Crimea and a referendum that voted 95% to join the Russian federation. It also brought about attempts of the Ukraine government to outlaw all things Russian, from former monuments, to even speaking or teaching in Russian.

This began the conflict between Ukraine and the 2 oblasts that resulted in over 14,000 deaths over the next 8 years. There were several attempts at mediation that really were just window-dressing for preparing Ukraine for war with Russia. This came to a head when Zelensky, who won his election by promising to make peace with Russia, voiced and began moving troops to the east to exert dominion over the 2 breakaway oblasts and Crimea. This was countered by the Russian invasion into Ukraine in February 2022.

It is now almost 2026 and the war continues, It is reported that Ukraine has near 2 mullion soldiers killed. This would also translate to 2 million disabled due to this conflict. There are at least 7 million who have left the country, 1.3 million to Russia, 1.2 million to Germany and over 1 million to Poland, the rest dispersed around the world, mostly women and children. Men between 23 and 60 are forbidden to legally leave. Many younger men have also sought to leave the country.

Civilian casualties are estimated at 49,000 with 13,800 killed. It is most likely most of these are in the eastern part of the country. Many of the eastern cities have been leveled, although far eastern cities like Mariupol are being quickly rebuilt. 

Life goes on pretty much unaffected in the western part as primarily military resources are targeted, but daily life is interrupted by air raid sirens.

The east is the industrial and resource area of Ukraine, much of it part of the defense apparatus of the former Soviet Union and also the Russian federation. The loss of this region will have lasting economic consequences and every day Ukraine becomes a little smaller. 

It is likely that many of the educated and skilled who have found jobs and a new life elsewhere will not return. The country is now dependent on the west for financial support to keep the government going and estimated $5 billion a month. It may take many years for the country to recover economically. The eastern part will be rebuilt by Russia, but the infrastructure in the west will be a drain on the west to assist in rebuilding.

So far, Russia has avoided taking out the bridge infrastructure and the historic cities in Ukraine. The sooner the end comes to this conflict, the sooner Ukraine can attempt to be a viable country in the future. It may never be able to reach the potential that it had before the interference from outside in what was a internal political dispute.