The tragedy of the Ukraine project.

 DOES UKRIANE HAVE A FUTURE?

SAD RESULTS OF FOREIGN INTERVENTION

It is estimated that Ukraine had a population of over 50 million in 1991 when they gained independence from the Soviet Union. The country has had a tumultuous political environment ever since that time. Todays population is now estimated at 26 million. Some of this decline is attributed to the population that is now in those areas controlled by Russia. 

Much of the discord has emanated from the fact that the eastern part of the country is primarily a Russian population, which has had close economic and cultural ties to Russia, the western parts have aspired to join the EU. In previous elections, the eastern population voted overwhelmingly for Viktor Yanukovych. In 2004 the election was close and Yanukovych edged out Yushchenko by a slight margin. The election was disputed and unrest followed with eastern oblasts threatening to secede if the election was overturned. A new election took place in 2005 with Yushchenko winning in a close race. 

In 2010 Yanukovych won 48.9 to 45.4 with overwhelming support in the eastern oblasts. After both these elections there was big increase in lawfare attempting to neutralize opposition leaders. Ukraine extended the lease with Russia for the Sevastopol navel base in Crimea until 2042 in exchange for low priced natural gas.

In 2013 a vote to begin integration into the EU was postponed and led to increased political demonstrations. Russia did not necessarily oppose Ukraine joining the EU, but a stipulation of the EU was that Ukraine would no longer be allowed commerce with the Russian federation. This was not acceptable to the eastern oblasts of the country. There was also speeches by western leaders claiming Ukraine would also be a new NATO member, this was clearly opposed by Russia.

In 2014 the crisis grew, with US. politicians like John McCain and Lindsey Graham speaking to the crowds encouraging them to change their government. Victoria Nuland admitted funneling $5 billion to opposition groups.  Eventually Yanukovych fled the country. This led to the secession of Donbas and Luhansk oblasts and the occupation of Crimea and a referendum that voted 95% to join the Russian federation. It also brought about attempts of the Ukraine government to outlaw all things Russian, from former monuments, to even speaking or teaching in Russian.

This began the conflict between Ukraine and the 2 oblasts that resulted in over 14,000 deaths over the next 8 years. There were several attempts at mediation that really were just window-dressing for preparing Ukraine for war with Russia. This came to a head when Zelensky, who won his election by promising to make peace with Russia, voiced and began moving troops to the east to exert dominion over the 2 breakaway oblasts and Crimea. This was countered by the Russian invasion into Ukraine in February 2022.

It is now almost 2026 and the war continues, It is reported that Ukraine has near 2 mullion soldiers killed. This would also translate to 2 million disabled due to this conflict. There are at least 7 million who have left the country, 1.3 million to Russia, 1.2 million to Germany and over 1 million to Poland, the rest dispersed around the world, mostly women and children. Men between 23 and 60 are forbidden to legally leave. Many younger men have also sought to leave the country.

Civilian casualties are estimated at 49,000 with 13,800 killed. It is most likely most of these are in the eastern part of the country. Many of the eastern cities have been leveled, although far eastern cities like Mariupol are being quickly rebuilt. 

Life goes on pretty much unaffected in the western part as primarily military resources are targeted, but daily life is interrupted by air raid sirens.

The east is the industrial and resource area of Ukraine, much of it part of the defense apparatus of the former Soviet Union and also the Russian federation. The loss of this region will have lasting economic consequences and every day Ukraine becomes a little smaller. 

It is likely that many of the educated and skilled who have found jobs and a new life elsewhere will not return. The country is now dependent on the west for financial support to keep the government going and estimated $5 billion a month. It may take many years for the country to recover economically. The eastern part will be rebuilt by Russia, but the infrastructure in the west will be a drain on the west to assist in rebuilding.

So far, Russia has avoided taking out the bridge infrastructure and the historic cities in Ukraine. The sooner the end comes to this conflict, the sooner Ukraine can attempt to be a viable country in the future. It may never be able to reach the potential that it had before the interference from outside in what was a internal political dispute.