Blog Archive

Friday, March 27, 2026

Day 28, Multiple conflicting and cooperative objectives.

 FICTITIOUS PEACE TALKS TO CALM MARKETS?

HOW LONG CAN ISRAEL CONTINUE?


It is now 4 weeks of war with Iran, it does not appear that the end is anywhere in the immediate future nor is there a concrete indication as to the outcome. According to the U.S. the war has been won and peace talks are underway. Iran denies either of those assertions and continues to control the traffic through the strait of Hormuz. Israel is not making any public statements, but is fighting in Lebanon and continues to attack Iran, while absorbing damage every day. It appears this war may continue for a long time and it may very well be one of those situations with periods of peace and then renewed conflict stretching for years.

Both Israel and the U.S. want regime change in Iran, Israel wants an end to the ability of Iran to pose a threat to Israel. Iran would like an end to Israel's' ability to threaten them. While Iran has sustained very serious damage they seem to have the ability to withstand a lot of punishment, Israel, on the other hand is small and it will soon become evident that they are losing the ability to defend themselves from missile attacks. This, coupled with a frozen economy and signs that the IDF is encountering internal strains from continuous war, may be the first to need to end this conflict.

Israel's long term objective is greater Israel and becoming the dominant power in the region. The U.S. desires to control the oil resources of the region, this war with Iran has in effect been going on since 1979 when Iran nationalized it oil resources. This creates a cooperating objective between Israel and the U.S. If the U.S. can obtain control over Iran's oil it will be a powerful lever over eastern Asia. If it can gain control of all the Gulf oil it may be the key to keeping its dominate position globally. Control of Mideast oil would be a severe blow to the BRICS economic union that threatens to become the dominate global economic power in the future. This is the ultimate goal of the neo con faction in the U.S., Global hegemony.

Of course, Iran desires to maintain its Sovereignty and control its own economic future.  

While, so far, this war is limited to the U.S. Israel and Iran there are massive other interests at work. It can be expected that they will assert those interests if this war shows signs of going against their interests.

While no one is talking about this, the U.S. is limited by its ability to replace all this ordinance and economic realities at home. Israel can not take this punishment for an indefinite time. If Iran can survive as an Sovereign state, it will be a win, at least for now.  



Thursday, March 26, 2026

Day 27, No way out, it will get worse.

 GROUND TROOPS ON THE WAY

ONCE COMMITED, IT WILL BE A LONG WAR



It appears the war crowd has overcome the aversion to ground troops in Iran. If they go this route it can only lead to an escalation and a conflict that will last for months possibly years. Once Trump realizes he cannot save this and his political future is over,  he may very well resolve that his only hope is victory, no matter the cost.

This week is as expected will be pivotal week, if there is escalation, it will plunge the region into a disastrous situation. 

Rumblings from Iraq indicate that forces there are considering entering this war on the side of Iran. 

It is reported that there are serious political situations arising in Bahrain and Kuwait, some report that the leadership has fled to Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia enters this war, Yemen will surely also become active.

Israel is turning southern Lebanon into ruble and are taking serious casualties.

No one knows what the situation is in Israel, but they are under attack daily and their economy and that of the gulf countries is at a standstill. It will be very dangerous if they run out of defensive missiles before Iran runs out of rockets. 

The continuous threats of escalation do not seem to be effective at bringing Iran into submission. The hope of an internal uprising may have been greatly exaggerated.  Iran has a 5000 year history, they do have a proud nationalist culture. In 1941 Germany invaded Russia at a time of the greatest atrocities of Stalin, far more severe than anything that has occurred in Iran. The Germans invaded with 3.8 million German and its allied forces. The Germans had the best trained, and the best equipped army in the world at the time. 2500 aircraft, 3000 tanks but in the end the Russian fought, not for Stalin, but for their country and inevitably destroyed the German army, while losing over 20 million lives.

Behind the scenes there are those rejoicing that they have now discredited Trump and possibly destroyed the movement to reform the U.S. They may have won, but the reform of the country is necessary for it to economically survive. That is a question of mathematics which cannot be overcome with narratives and wishful thinking.



Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Day 26, Phantom talks, the war goes on.

 NO INDICATION OF ANY NEGOTIATIONS

 LOTS OF TALKING, EXCEPT WITH IRAN


While we witnessed a temporary pause in escalation, it was not because there is actual negotiations going on with Iran. Trump claims they have agreed to no nuclear weapons, something that they agreed to in previous real negotiations, but all previous negotiations ended in attacks on Iran. Iran has made it clear that they do not expect to negotiate with the United States again, at least not until their demands are met. Those demands include an end to United States presence in the region, reparations and real non aggression guarantees in the future. Of course, that is a real impasse.

So, the war will continue, Iran will continue regulating traffic through the strait and Trump and Israel will either escalate, bring in ground troops to control the strait or declare victory and go home. One can expect that ground troops are the plan with Marines, Airborne and 2 divisions of regular army amounting to some 70,000 U.S. troops. One would expect that Israel and other gulf nations will be encouraged to put up at least an equal number. 

While we can predict lots of enthusiasm by the war crowd in Washington and Tel Aviv, it will likely result in significant casualties, a complete closing of the strait and the call for more troops or tactical nuclear weapons. Hopefully, this time, Trump will listen to U.S. military and intelligence about best options. This war will not end easily.

The geography and logistics required for an actual ground intervention is all on Iran's side. Any attempt to amass troops and materials anywhere within striking distance will be vulnerable to attack. No one believes this is a good idea.

It seems Iran has now begun to demand tolls for passage through the strait, while a humiliation to the west, it may be the lesser of two evils to the ship owners and insurance companies, the tolls may be less of an issue that the loss of revenue and the costs now being paid without any return.

As I write, I hear that over 100 missiles have been fired toward Israel, some will inevitably get through, and it appears Iran's capabilities have not been extinguished. The clock is ticking until Israel will run out of defensive missiles and that will require either a peace deal or a very dangerous escalation.




Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Is the new policy, 21st century colonialism?

AGE OLD ROUTE TO NATIONAL WEALTH

AUTHORITARIAN STATE AND RULING ELITE



If we look back to history we will see that the most powerful nations simply took what they wanted from those who had what they wanted or needed. Their policy was to conquer another nation and then demand tribute and submission to their power. This was the policy of the Assyrians, Persians, Greeks and the Romans.

The Roman empire eventually perfected that policy and ruled most of the civilized world from 27 BC to 476 AD., in the eastern Byzantine empire it continued until 1453 Ad., It was supplanted by the Ottoman empire which continued until after WW1. The Mongol empire reigned from 1209 until 1480 in the east and parts of Europe and Russia.

They all had very similar strategies, conquer the existing government, appoint a dictator or King, preferably of local descent, and enforce the taking of wealth by military power. 

In Europe, in the early modern period, the Spanish empire at one time controlled all of South America, Central America and the southwest of North America, along with colonies in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific. it prospered by plundering the gold and silver of its conquests. It was the largest empire at the time and its influence remains today in its former foreign colonies, mostly in cultural and traditions, but not military power. Spanish is the second most dominate language in the world.

France and England were the other powerful empires, with the British empire spanning the complete globe, with very few countries not influenced by the interaction with the British empire.  All these European countries had a monarchial system of feudalism.  The ruling elite came to their position by being descendants of the ruling class. The rest of the population was barred from entering that system and was limited to maintaining the aristocracy. That was the structure of government in all the regimes in Europe. The leaders all intermarried and maintained alliances with each other. One must speculate that the early aristocracy was made up of those with wealth, or power. Once established, it was only by birth or someone who had much wealth or power.

The American revolution was the first challenge to that feudal or Monarchial system, while it could have replicated the feudal system of Europe, it choose a system of individual freedom and liberty for all to pursue their own course without being subject to a King or aristocracy. Many point to slavery as a flaw in that system, but slavery was a institution of the British Empire and to ensure the unity of the colonies during the revolution, it was an issue that would be put off until a future time. 

The United States expanded by the Louisiana purchase, from the French, incorporating the southwest of the continent by the war with Mexico, while it was a war of conquest, it was not an attempt at colonialism. The landowners kept their land and were granted citizenship. The rest of the country was concluded by the Spanish American war and the purchase of Alaska from Russia. The United States was not a colonial power in the image of European colonialism, in fact, the Monroe doctrine helped to persuade the Europeans to end their colonies in the Western Hemisphere. 

In the 19th century the United States refrained from getting involved in European affairs and the country mostly enjoyed peace and built the greatest manufacturing base in history. The country was self sufficient in all the essential needs and enjoyed the ability to improvise, invent and grow dramatically. 

When WW1 broke out, mostly from a complicated system of alliances and tension between those powers, the U.S. was coaxed into intervention in that war, helped by the financial and other interests still exerted on the country by Britain. It is evident that the former colonies of the British empire are still often influenced by the financial and political power based in the city of London, in Britain. The U.S. intervention in that war, which was not started by Germany, but who became the ultimate victim, led to WW2. The war was at a stalemate, neither side advanced for near 2 years and a peace agreement would have eventually been demanded. The U.S. intervention then led to a ceasefire or armistice, troops withdrew, and after troops returned  home a treaty was  signed,  7 months later. Its prohibitive and punishing sanctions on Germany created the eventual rise of Hitler and Nazim in Germany.

After WW1 the British and French took control of any colonies of Germany and proceeded to partition up much of the Ottoman empire, including the middle east and Africa. The British in particular remade borders and boundaries often separating cultural and religious areas in the best interest of keeping these areas divided and often in conflict. They also created new borders and countries like Iraq, and Kuwait, inserted kings and dictators who would facilitate their control, particularly in regards to oil reserves. Many of those borders still exist today and are sources of continuous conflict in Pakistan, Afghanistan, India and the middle east. The British used Famine in India and forced drug importation in China to keep control.

After WW2, with the creation of the United Nations and a system of international law, the outright policy of colonialism became out of favor, but subtle colonialism continued. India gained independence in 1947 and China 1949. Hong Kong became a colony of Britain in 1842 and in 1898 China was forced into accepting a 99 year lease. Hong Kong was partly given Chinese rule in 1997 when that lease expired. The aftermath of WW2 left the French and British unable to militarily control their colonies, independence was given to most countries in Africa and Asia, but subtle colonialism continued by the intelligence operations, economic sanctions and manipulation of currencies and election manipulation to keep leaders in power that would serve their interests. These operations continue today in Africa, the middle east and eastern Europe. Since WW2 and the lack of military power by Europeans, the U.S. has often provided the muscle to keep these colonies in check.

Directly after WW2 and the creation of the CIA, the United States began a policy of intervention in many parts of the world. The overturning of the new democratic government of Iran in 1953 at the behest of British oil interests and the CIA orchestrated Coup in Guatemala in 1954 were the first of near 60 interventions since WW2.  While many of the interventions were excused as part of the cold war and the containment of communism, the increased violence and and use of military power accelerated after the fall of the Soviet Union. 

The conflict in Viet Nam, the former French colony of Indochina from 1887 to 1954, was sold as part of the cold war and the intervention of U.S lasted from 1955 to 1975, claimed millions of Vietnamese lives and 58,000 U.S. servicemen. The war was in fact a civil war fought over the dividing of the country by a longitudinal line established by western powers after WW2. The goal was measured in body counts, rather than territory gained. It caused serious unrest in the U.S. and caused the end of conscription. It was, in effect, partly an attempt of maintaining the colonial system and the fear of communist expansion..  It ushered in a period of severe resistance to further foreign military action in the U.S. 

While the U.S. was restrained in its military intervention after Vietnam, other attempts around the world to throw off colonial rule and exploitation continued in many places.  Iraq had begun to nationalize its oil reserves in 1972, Libya in 1973-1974 and Iran nationalized its reserves in 1979. In 1980 Iraq attacked Iran and Saddam Hussein was supported and supplied by the U.S. and other western powers. This may have been the beginning of using proxy forces to avoid discontent at home for the western powers. Leaders of countries and militia or other groups can be persuaded with promises of territory or wealth. One wonders what promises were given to Saddam Hussein if he would destabilize Iran. The war ran from 1980-1988 and resulted in over 500,000 deaths, Iraq resorted to the use of chemical weapons supplied by the west. 

With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 George Bush and others in Washington proclaimed that the U.S. was now the only remaining super power. Almost immediately the Iraq war began, after Iraq invaded Kuwait which was at one time part of Iraq and a British creation to control the oil in that region. The first gulf war may have been aided by the U.S. ambassador April Glaspie,  who informed Saddam Hussein that the U.S. would not get involved in land disputes in the middle east. This war destroyed the Iraqi military, but left Saddam Hussein with the agreement that he would allow western access to the oil.

The preparation for the first gulf war required 6 months of staging with troops and resources accumulated in Saudi Arabia, It was a massive collection of 500,000 U.S. troops. It resulted in a permanent military presence in Saudi Arabia. This presence was the impetus for the future attack on the U.S. on  9/11/2001. It was stated by Osama Bin Laden as the primary reason for the attack.  At present the U.S. maintains many bases in the region, a de facto occupation, that is opposed by the majority of the population, but not the leadership.

After the 911 attack the U.S. under George Bush 2 immediately invaded Afghanistan in an attempt to destroy Al Qaeda, much of what was the proxy force supported by the U.S. in the earlier fight with Russia in Afghanistan. This attack targeted Al Qaeda and the Taliban, the ruling party at the time.  This war lasted for 20 years and ended in 2021. The Afghans did not want to be controlled by the Russians or the Americans. Interesting that the Afghans fought 3 wars with the British empire from 1839 to 1919. They have resisted and prevailed against colonial rule for much of their modern life.

In 2003 the narrative about Iraq being involved in 911, which was not true, and the supposed possession of nuclear or chemical weapons, which was also disproven,  preceded an invasion and occupation that lasted until 2011, It resulted in Iraqi oil being placed under the control of the U.S. and the revenue banked in New York. This arrangement continues now for over 20 years. 4500 Americans and over 100,000 Iraqis died. 

In 2011 the Syrian government came under pressure by rebel groups, often financed by the west and the U.S. in particular. U.S. troops took control of the oil and denied access to the oil or the revenue to Syria. In 2020 the U.S. granted the oil concession to Delta Crescent Energy. 

In 2011 a revolution began in Libya with U.S. supported ground troops and NATO supplied air support, the oil resources have since been divided between foreign interests.

In all these conflicts proxy forces were used to assist in destabilizing these countries.

Venezuela has been producing oil since 1908, most of the concessions were gained by foreign interests, Venezuela nationalized its oil in the 1970's and paid 25% of the revenue to the concessions, this continued until 2007 when Hugo Chaves fully nationalized the oil. After sanctions and eventually an embargo in 2026, control the oil was taken  by the United States, the revenue is placed into a bank in New York and Venezuela must petition for needed funds. 

It is clear that the United states controls and reaps the revenue from the oil of Iraq, Syria and Venezuela. Libya oil revenues are shared with European powers. It is not clear who receives the benefit of these funds. I have never seen any accounting or revelation of how this money is dispersed. In fact, I have never heard anyone question this arrangement.

Most all of the contracts by foreign companies resulted in the hosting country receiving about 18 % of the revenue.  This was before  the accounting done by the foreign companies and their governments. Many of these contracts were negotiated from the early 1900's to the 1940's. Attempts to renegotiate often led to military intervention.

In Africa moves to end foreign exploitation continue and we can expect the move to reinstate foreign control of resources.

Looking at the emerging policies of the United States one must speculate that the goal is a new 21st century colonialism. The Russian/Ukraine war, a result of NATO expansion to the doorstep of Russia, which all objective historians and political analysts knew would result in Russia protecting its borders from NATO expansion and missiles. They believed that when Russia invaded they would quickly be crushed by sanctions and combined NATO aid to Ukraine, which is the proxy force used in this war.. The moment when the UK collateralized Ukrainian debt with a 99 year lease on Ukrainian resources and France attempted to do the same and then Trump quickly said me too, revealed what was really going on. Ukraine was only the first step in dismembering Russia and taking control of its resources.

There were indications early in the Trump administration that this was not a replay of the first administration. Things had changed, first we saw a new Department of War, replacing the Department of Defense, an overt indication that preemptive war may be on the horizon. Then we saw the DOGE committee saving $165 billion in the budget only to quickly add it to the defense budget without any accountability.

We listened to Marco Rubio speak in Munich were he blamed others for deindustrialization the U.S. and Europe. He went on that the U.S. would no longer be restrained by international law that has assisted in the west losing its power and wealth. He invited Europe to join the U.S. in rebuilding their power and wealth. The reality is that the new aristocracy sold the country out for the profits they reaped by buying low in the east  and selling high at home. Now that it is becoming unsustainable, a new imperialism or colonialism can keep the money flowing. 

Then we saw indications of annexing Canada and Greenland, both rich in resources without big populations or military power. This was followed with the complete embargo of Venezuela, disposing of their leader and then the taking control of the oil and deciding who it would be sold to and the money deposited again in a bank in New York. Venezuela is forbidden to buy anything that does not come from the United States, Colonialism plain and simple.

Now we have Iran, a country manipulated by the British since 1908. Intervention by the United States in 1953, overthrowing their elected leader and propping up the Shah who was a puppet of the U.S. and Britain. Trump has declared that he will name the next leader in Iran and we can expect their oil revenue will also go into a bank in New York, except for some sharing with Israel.

Israel, whose enormous economic and political influence has been instrumental in all these middle east wars, was the creation of the British Empire, possibly an intentional distraction for all the oil producers of the region. Keep them in constant chaos and war, playing each other off against the U.S. and Israel. One can only speculate that after Iran, the Gulf countries will be next, after being decimated by this war, they will be easy pickings. Israel will then share in the spoils or more likely, having served its purpose will possibly be also expendable. 

Viewing the chaos, interventions, unexplainable decisions begin to become clear when understanding the goal for the future, is a new colonialism.

Colonialism has been the path for wealth for all of recorded history, except for a brief period in the 20th century. Kings are replaced by Statism and the new aristocracy is the monied elite who could be identified as the Epstein class, just as privileged as the aristocracy of the past, not subject to the law or standards expected by the rest. One must wonder what will be the lot of the rest as this new system materializes.






Monday, March 23, 2026

Day 24, The week of decision.

 ULTIMATUMS AND RETALIATION

NETANYAHU ADVOCATES GROUND COMPONENT



This is now the fourth week of this war and it may be the time for pivotal decisions. This weekend, Trump stated it was time for the war to wind down and then hours later issued an ultimatum that the strait of Hormuz must be opened fully within 48 hours, late this evening, or the U.S. and Israel will destroy Iran's electrical power production. Iran, being predictable, threatened to destroy all electric and desalination production in the region.  This is a massive threat of escalation that if acted on will plunge the region into an economic and humanitarian disaster.

It is being reported that Israel is being selective as to how to defend  the continuing missile assaults, in an  attempt to only use interceptors on priority targets. There were damaging hits on Israel's nuclear facility at Dimona. 

Netanyahu stated that a ground component will be necessary to reach their objectives in this war. There was no elaboration on whose ground troops he had in mind and one must wonder if this is connected to Trump's talk of winding down and then escalation.  It is not clear as to who is running this war.

The Strait is open to navigation at the discretion of Iran, Japan and India and others have been given permission to navigate through the strait.

The NATO head has claimed a 22 member group is considering assisting in opening the strait, no timeline or estimation of when has been revealed.

Many are now reporting that the Gerald Ford carrier, which is now in port in Greece, has suffered from internal sabotage of clogged sewage system and then fires that required 30 hours to extinguish. Having experienced extended times at sea many years ago, it is true that it is physiologically very taxing and morale sinks very low and grumbling and frustration can become rampant. Just the strain of extended time at sea, coupled with possibly divided support for the war will require a complicated test of leadership. 

Decisions in the next few days will be pivotal on the direction of this war. There is no end in sight, it is indeed becoming a war of attrition. The economic damage to the whole region may take years to recover. The global damage will take at the least many months, that is all without further escalation. 

Note, Trump has postponed impending attacks due to claimed negotiations, Iran denies any negotiations in progress and is backed up by most knowledgeable analysts.

 

Friday, March 20, 2026

Day 21, more crises developing by the day.

 GROUND TROOPS, STRANDED SAILORS 

ESCALTION TRAP UNDERWAY


This is the beginning of the fourth week of this war and it will be a week of expected escalation and multiplying of unintended consequences. All oil tankers that left the region at the start of the war have now reached their destination. There will be very little arriving from here on out and if it opened up tomorrow it would take as much as a month to get oil moving.

The attacks by Israel and then the retaliation by Iran on Gas facilities is estimated to reduce the flow of LNG for near 5 years. This will translate into higher prices for years to come. 

To keep the flow of oil and gas moving most countries are dipping into their strategic reserves and the U.S. has actually removed the sanctions on not only Russian oil, but Iranian oil. Iranian oil exports have actually risen since this war began. 

Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, may now cause Iran to retaliate by hitting the nuclear desalination plants in Israel and the gulf. If these plants actually go off line, it will require the population to flee the region. There is not enough natural fresh water to support the populations.

There are 3200 ships stranded in the Persian gulf with 20,000 crewmembers. These ships are running out of food, water is at a minimum and it reaching a humanitarian crisis for these sailors. Most gulf countries will not allow them to dock, so they are anchored sitting still in the gulf. 

It is now assumed that there is a growing possibility of a ground attack in some way, either an attempt to capture Kharg island or secure the strait of Hormuz. It is acknowledged by military experts, that it will not be an easy operation. This would be a perfect time for Iran to allow those 3200 ships that are not loaded to exit the strait of Hormuz. This would certainly complicate any military operations for several weeks.

This is the week were the complications of this war are going to become increasingly evident. Prices have risen, but now it may begin to get out of control. All the good reports aside, Israel is going to be experiencing all kinds of problems very soon. Their economy is at a standstill and desperation will likely lead to escalation.  There is no end in sight and every day will reveal a new crisis.




Thursday, March 19, 2026

Day 20, Up the escalation ladder.

 ISRAEL BOMBS IRAN'S GAS FIELDS

IRAN RETALIATES AGAINST QATARI GAS FIELDS


Yesterday, Israel bombed Iran's gas fields, part of the largest gas field in the world, that is shared with Qatar. Iran vowed revenge by giving notice that they would respond by attacking oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait and advising evacuation of specific sites, they then hit the Qatari gas facilities and it experienced serious damage, they also inflicted damage on the other sites. They clearly stated that these countries will be targets as long as they are providing the U.S. and Israel with bases used to attack Iran.

Trump warned Iran that if they persisted in targeting oil or gas facilities, the U.S. would totally destroy Iranian gas fields and that he would bar Israel from more such attacks. Israel had earlier struck major oil facilities near Tehran. It is clear that Israel is not under the control of the U.S. and has separate and distinct goals.

Israel also received increased attacks that left damage all across the country in retaliation of further assassinations and hitting the gas fields.

Gas prices immediately soared in the UK and EU and will inevitably raise prices worldwide. This war is on the verge of going completely out of control with the possibility of major power intervention.

In yesterday's intelligence briefing it was clear that the Senators wanted those questioned to answer, if they informed the president of the risks of this war. All those questioned failed to answer in one way or another. It may be that Trump's distrust of the U.S. intelligence community allowed him to depend on intelligence provided by Israel and Netanyahu. This was demonstrated by the resignation of Joe Kent. 

It is becoming clear that this war will continue for some time and that it is going to have long lasting global implications. Only Trump can end this war and it is also clear to do that he will appear to have backed down.  Trump is now caught in this war trap with no way to get out without suffering political damage and disappointing Israel. It is without a doubt the biggest challenge to his presidency and is now being tested in a way that cannot be evaded by narratives and denials. 

We are going to see if he will find some morality or principles that will allow him to end this disaster before it takes down the world economy and possibly more.



Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Day 19, settling into War of attrition.

 WHAT NOW, ESCALATION ONLY OPTION

ESCALTION THEN RETALIATION



This war is now in need of a new strategy, as it heads to the end of the third week. The U.S. and Israel both continue to bomb, the U.S. looking for military targets and Israel bent on assassination of anyone who would be a possible negotiator. It appears that this war is not a coordinated attack with common goals.  While denying it, Trump has attempted to open negotiations numerous times with third party intermediaries, he would like an off ramp. It is no secret that Israel wants to destroy Iran as viable country. Israel wants Iran to look like Libya or Gaza, a failed state unable to offer any opposition. It is clear there is no end to this war in sight. 

While much is made of the closed Hormuz straits, ships are moving out of the Persian gulf, not too many moving westward. Iran is controlling this traffic and it seems no countries have volunteered to help force it out of Iran's control. Negotiations are ongoing between shipping players and Iran to get permission to allow safe passage on an individual basis. Iran has shipped more oil this month than last month.

Israel is under extreme censorship, any photos or videos of damage will result in arrest. Damage is occurring every day, but no one can estimate how much.

Iran continues to strike U.S. military assets in the gulf countries.

The resignation of Joe Kent who served 11 tours in Mideast wars and whose wife, also a soldier,  was killed in the region. Trump best to not malign this man, this action by him will undoubtedly cost him much of his future. Some believe he may be the just the first of many and wonder what has happened to Tulsi Gabbard and other Trump supporters who desired an end to wars of choice.

It is still Israel that is in the predicament of having a closed economy, a dependence on a limited supply of interceptors and an eventual problem of recruitment and public opinion.  

The pressure on Trump to escalate this war with ground troops is going to grow by the day. While it would be costly for Iran, it would undoubtedly result in serious casualties for the U.S. Once engaged, it then could become similar to Ukraine in reverse. While much is made about the division in the Muslim world between Shia and Sunni, a ground war in the region will bring volunteers from many places. Gulf countries will have serious political problems at home if they side with the U.S. and Israel. While Muslims have disagreements between themselves none of them have warm feelings for Israel and the U.S.  A ground war could be the most unifying event for Muslims in decades.



Monday, March 16, 2026

Day 17, Trump asks for help, Iran declares strait open.

 MARINE ASSAULT GROUP ON THE WAY

NO END IN SIGHT, PREPARE FOR LONG CONFLICT



Over the weekend, we see that Trump has called on other nations to send ships to help in keeping the strait of Hormuz open. At the same time Iran has declared that the strait is open to all,  except for their enemies and their allies. Chinese and Indian ships are being allowed through the strait. Iran has made it clear that prior permission is granted on an individual basis and all ships will be considered, except for U.S. and Israeli destined ships. U.S. allies ships, European,  Japan, South Korean will also be granted permission if they are paying for their oil in Yuan and not dollars. This would apply to ships carrying oil originating in the gulf countries. So, would it better to send ships to take control of the strait by force or ask permission under Iran's terms, that will now be the dilemma.

The U.S. has stated that a Marine assault force is in route to the region, most military experts believe their use would be a very risky operation and would undoubtedly result in serious casualties. If this is used to capture Kharg island it could cut off Iranian exports or it could be used to interdict oil tankers after they pass through the strait. Either action would most likely result in Iran damaging the gulf countries ability to produce and transport oil.  The U.S. may find this acceptable in that their more strategic goal is to do damage to China's economy and possibly that of other southeast Asian countries, all part of BRICS economic group.

While accusations of Russian assistance to Iran is being claimed, it is most likely that China has provided the use of their GPS system and providing targeting to Iran. This was widely known for some time, but one wonders if this is still an attempt to divide China and Russia in some way.

Iran has consistently fired 20 to 50 ballistic missiles every day, with increasing percentages of hits in both the Gulf bases and Israel.

Contrary to U.S. claims, they are not flying over Iran, the attacks are coming from missiles in the Gulf countries, stand off missiles fired from the air outside of Iranian air space and tomahawk missiles fired from naval assets. All this ordinance is in short supply. It may take several years to replace the ordinance being used. 

The economies of Iran, Israel, and the gulf countries are mostly at a standstill. The economic consequences will be huge and long lasting.

While it is true Israel pushed for this war, it is not all about Israel, Iran is a pivotal part of the BRICS economic group and Russia and China have a serious interests in Iran maintaining its sovereignty. They can be expected to not allow the total destruction of Iran.

Speculation about the death of Netanyahu and Ben Ge-vir is all over the place. There are denials, but no sightings for days. One can expect that if they are alive we will see them soon.

Iran has made it clear that they have not asked for a ceasefire or any negotiations. They have actually laid out a list of conditions for a lasting agreement that at this time will never be accepted by the U.S.  

This war look's like it will continue for many weeks, if not months.





Friday, March 13, 2026

Day 14, Iran retaliates to every escalation.

 ISRAEL EARLY WARNING DOWN TO 90 SECONDS

TARGETS EXPAND TO WATER, OIL PRODUCTION AND BANKS



2 weeks into this war and it does not appear to be near an end. The strait is still impassable unless receiving permission from Iran. Ships must have prior individual permission. More refineries and other production facilities in the gulf are shutting down as they are soon out of storage space.  It could take several weeks to restart many of these facilities. 

There is still oil in transit as it takes from 19 to 35 days for oil to reach Europe. 20 to 30 days to Japan. The real crunch will begin in another 2 weeks, and even if open, could be critical for a month after that. There is going to be a severe oil related economic situation within the next 2 weeks. Today's Crude futures  price is at $95. Fertilizer price, made from natural gas, has risen substantially and there could be shortages.

Iran continues to hit U.S. bases and Israel. It has launched its 44th wave of attacks on Israel and due to elimination of much of the radar in the gulf their early warning is now down to 90 seconds which essentially means it is best to remain in shelters  at all times. Hezbollah also launched 100 missiles into Israel yesterday.  A larger percentage of these missiles are reportedly now hitting as the loss of radar has hampered effectiveness of defenses.

Iran seems to be now reciprocating attacks. If their oil facilities are attacked they hit oil facilities in the gulf. If their water desalination facilities, they respond by attacking such facilities in the gulf or Israel. They have also stated that are going to begin targeting western banks and investment facilities. Their warnings seem to usually be followed by real attacks.

So far, the strategy seems to be to keep increasing the bombing until Iran capitulates. Can the bombing be increased? While it is claimed to be unlimited, I doubt there is any such thing as unlimited. It now seems to be a war of attrition, and existential threat to Iran's survival, but not the U.S.  We can expect that within 2 weeks serious economic consequences will be reality and increase after that. Is there a plan B?



Thursday, March 12, 2026

Day 13, Declare Victory or double down?

THIS IS WHAT A WAR TRAP LOOKS LIKE 

LOOSING FACE IS A HARD OPTION



We have heard that this war is almost over. We have heard that there are no more targets left to hit. We have heard that if Iran doesn't capitulate they will bombed like never before. 

Yesterday, Iran launched wave 40 of missile attacks on Israel that lasted over 5 hours. It is reported, but not verified by Israel, that there were many missile impacts. At least 3 ships were damaged near the strait of Hormuz and contrary to all threats it is still not allowing commerce through this vital passageway. 

The clock is ticking until this war will begin to have global economic consequences. The Oil futures price today is $91, gas in Pa, is now $3.80, Diesel $5.19 and Home heating oil $4.80. If no resolution of this war, it will go much higher and begin to have domestic economic consequences.

Implications are far greater in some other parts of the world and the possibility of more players entering this conflict is growing.

The leader of the Iraqi Kurds has stated that they are not guns for hire and it is not their war. 

Trump has been advised by some Senators and military to declare victory and end this war. Israel can not take daily punishment and a dysfunctional economy forever. No one has proposed a plan that will insure safe passage through the strait of Hormuz. Iran has publicly stated that there will be no new negotiations or end to this war unless their demands are met.

One can assume that Netanyahu understood the psychology of Donald Trump very well and knew that if this war started, Trump would want to end as a winner, any backdown would look like weakness and have global and domestic implications. We can only assume that we will soon see a doubling down of this conflict and even the possibility of introducing ground troops to secure the strait of Hurmuz. This will result in many casualties and the need for further escalation.

At the same time Israel will be eventually be put into the position of facing its doom and as it has done numerous times in the past, threaten the use of nuclear weapons.  It could be expected that this critical period will come in just a few weeks.

It takes a lot of humility and real courage to change course, it will be the ultimate test, so far, of Trumps presidency.






Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Day 12, Trump, Mariners have no guts!

 WHY IS EVERYONE STILL JUSTIFYING WAR?

EVERYDAY BOASTS OF MORE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION



In press conferences and even talk radio there is still endless diatribe about justification for this war. Glenn Beck has gone as far as to label this war as a fight against the Anti-Christ, an all out war of good against evil. Hegseth and others justification is a moving target that we have all have heard, from Iran's nuclear weapons, to imminent attack from Iran. The attempt to make this a religious war is by far, the most desperate and dangerous aspect of their justification. Symptoms of Anti-Christ behavior are evident in many places. In fact, in everyone who supports this war. Those who wanted this war, have it, why the continuous demonization in justification? Of course we know why, there is no popular support for this war, and as it goes on it will decline even more.

Yesterday, Trump accused Merchant Mariners of having no guts, for not moving ships through the strait of Hormuz, I did not hear of any U.S. warships moving through the strait, does his accusations apply to them, he can order them to do so. Maybe Trump or Netanyahu should show them how it's done and pilot the first ship through. Merchant Mariners risk their life every voyage in the the dangers of ocean navigation, these seaman are from every country in the world, often from numerous countries on the same ship. This is not their war, and if it continues, many will be looking for ways to get off those ships stranded in the Persian gulf and go home.

While reports out of Israel are nonexistent, it is clear that most all the radar facilities in the gulf region have become non operational, as well as much of the communications in the region. Early warnings of incoming missiles is now just minutes before impact in Israel. It seems radar from NATO bases in Turkey are substituting for the lost radars. 

Daily reports from Hegsteth and Trump threaten that everyday the attacks on Iran will be bigger than the last. One has to wonder how these munitions will be replaced and resupplied. Yesterday was the 37th wave of missiles fired by Iran, they are fewer, but bigger and more accurate.

While the crude oil price has stabilized around $85 a barrel there are actual shortages and rationing in Australia and anticipated similar results in the EU. 

It seems this war is settling into a war of attrition, limited real information being available, other than the threats of escalation and cheering on. I suspect that Israel may be the first to find the war no longer sustainable.




Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Day 11, Is Trump looking for an offramp?

 IT WILL TAKE 3 TO TANGO

IRAN MAY BE COMMITTED TO LONG TERM RESOLUTION



In last nights press conference, Trump indicted that the war was mostly won. He listed all the destruction in Iran and claimed that they have little ability to continue the war. It sounded like he would be willing to end this, even without surrender from Iran.

It may be no coincidence that it is day 11, a time that will require resupply of Navy ships, possibly in India, since the gulf bases are not functional. a possible looming shortage of interceptors, and the continued disruption of fuel through the strait of Hormuz. The forecast of a long drawn out affair could be lethal to this President's domestic agenda. A victory for his enemies in the bureaucratic state and his opponents in both parties. 

For one, he cannot quit unless Israel agrees, and they may soon do just that. Then he has the psychopathic bloodthirsty neocons led by Lindsey, "kill them all" Graham, who seems almost orgasmic at the hope of death, blood and destruction. This seems to be the case of Benjamin Netanyahu as well. Then if he convinces these factions, he has to convince Iran that it is their best interest to quit now and fight again in the future, when Israel and the U.S. can rearm, and resupply. 

Trump has proposed several ceasefires and has been rejected, I suspect Iran now believes that if we are to die, it might as well be now. It may be their last chance to at least survive as a country and they will be able to cause lots of suffering for their attackers.




Monday, March 9, 2026

Day 10, Economic consequences begin.

 WILL OIL MARKETS TRIGGER GLOBAL RECESSION?

RESTORING TRAFFIC THROUGH THE STRAIT MAY NOW BE PRIORITY


It is getting increasingly difficult to understand exactly how things are going in the war, as all nations involved have clamped down on videos and reporting. People are actually being arrested for taking videos. It is also reported that phone communication originating in the U.S. to Iran has been cut off, but communication from Iran to the U.S. is still open.

Devastating attacks on Tehran are ongoing and in the latest escalation the U.S. or Israel has attacked Iran's oil infrastructure with oily black clouds now spreading in the region and some say will travel as far as China. If Iran now retaliates against oil infrastructure it could soon be a serious environmental catastrophe.

It seems Iran is still focusing on the U.S. military infrastructure with continued attacks on bases and radar installations. Attacks on Israel continue, but seem to be less in number but more continual to keep everyone hunkered down in shelters. The economy in Israel is most likely near a standstill. Netanyahu has forbidden all attempts of citizens and duel citizens to leave the country.

At this hour Crude oil futures are at $101. per barrel. Fridays close was $92 and it had risen to over $110 for a period over the weekend. The prices in the U.S. for gas and Fuel oil will reset this afternoon and can be expected to rise substantially. Gas rose 30 cents last week and will probably rise more than that this week. While the U.S. produces much crude it depends on foreign refining capacity as there are fewer refiners still running in the U.S.  Prices of refined products have skyrocketed particularly for aviation fuel. Fertilizer prices have already risen by 70 %, complicating farmers plans for the spring planting. We can expect that all prices will start rising significantly in the near future.

We may expect a shifting of priorities from decimating Tehran to efforts to secure passage through the strait of Hormuz. It could be a very costly engagement, while Iran is allowing some ships to pass, an actual military effort to open, could result in being physically blocked for many months. I would expect this has to be opened or a global financial downturn is imminent.

The N word is increasingly being used either from a frustrated U.S. or a panicked Israel. One wonders if there is the stable leadership available in either country to resist that move. The possibility of the expansion of this war to include much of Europe and then Russia and China increases with every escalation. 




Friday, March 6, 2026

Letter to Trump, by influential and well respected Gulf representitive.

 HOW DO GULF LEADERS FEEL ABOUT WAR?

HOW WILL THIS EFFECT FUTURE GLOBAL RELATIONS?


Below is letter  sent to Donald Trump by a well respected and influential member of the Gulf countries. He is from the UAE which is considered an ally of the U.S. and even Israel. I suspect most Americans will rather hear the diatribe from U.S. media of how wonderful this war is and will continue to refuse to listen to what people in other parts of the world might have to say. 
The day is coming when the U.S. may very well need the good will of both our friends and adversaries and we are burning up that good will not only now, but for the last few decades.

Translated from Arabic
His Excellency President Donald Trump, A direct question: Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with #Iran? And on what basis did you make this dangerous decision? Did you calculate the collateral damage before pulling the trigger? And did you consider that the first to suffer from this escalation will be the countries of the region itself! The peoples of this region have the right to ask as well: Was this your decision alone? Or did it come as a result of pressures from #Netanyahu and his government? You have placed the countries of the #GulfCooperationCouncil and the Arab countries at the heart of a danger they did not choose. Thank God, we are strong and capable of defending ourselves, and we have armies and defenses that protect our homelands, but the question remains: Who gave you permission to turn our region into a battlefield? For before the ink has dried on the #BoardOfPeace initiative that you announced in the name of peace and stability, we find ourselves facing a military escalation that endangers the entire region. So where did those initiatives go? And what is the fate of the commitments made in the name of peace? Most of the funding proposed in those initiatives came from the countries of the region themselves, and from Arab Gulf countries that contributed billions of dollars on the basis of supporting stability and development. And these countries have the right to ask today: Where did this money go? And are we funding peace initiatives or funding a war that exposes us to danger? More dangerous than that, your decision does not threaten only the peoples of the region, but also reaches the American people whom you promised peace and prosperity. And here they are today, finding themselves in a war funded from their money and taxes, with costs ranging, according to the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS), between 40-65 billion dollars for direct military operations, and could reach 210 billion dollars including economic impacts and indirect losses if it lasts four to five weeks, not to mention the sacrifice of Americans themselves in a war in which they have neither camel nor she-camel. You have even broken your promises not to get involved in wars and to focus only on America and put it at the top of your priorities, as you ordered foreign military interventions during your second term that included seven countries: Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria, Syria, Iran, and Venezuela, in addition to naval operations in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific Ocean. You directed more than 658 foreign airstrikes in your first year in office, which equals the total strikes in Biden's entire term, for which you directed your arrows of criticism for involving the United States in foreign wars. Your Excellency the President, these numbers have severely reflected on your approval ratings among Americans, which have declined since your inauguration for the second term, by about 9% in just 400 days. These numbers say something clear: Even within #TheUnitedStates, there is growing concern about being dragged into a new war, and about exposing the lives of Americans, their economy, and their future to unnecessary risks. True leadership is not measured by war decisions, but by wisdom, respect for others, and pushing toward achieving peace. And if these initiatives were launched in the name of peace, then we have the right today to demand full transparency and clear accountability.