Day 10, Economic consequences begin.

 WILL OIL MARKETS TRIGGER GLOBAL RECESSION?

RESTORING TRAFFIC THROUGH THE STRAIT MAY NOW BE PRIORITY

It is getting increasingly difficult to understand exactly how things are going in the war, as all nations involved have clamped down on videos and reporting. People are actually being arrested for taking videos. It is also reported that phone communication originating in the U.S. to Iran has been cut off, but communication from Iran to the U.S. is still open.

Devastating attacks on Tehran are ongoing and in the latest escalation the U.S. or Israel has attacked Iran's oil infrastructure with oily black clouds now spreading in the region and some say will travel as far as China. If Iran now retaliates against oil infrastructure it could soon be a serious environmental catastrophe.

It seems Iran is still focusing on the U.S. military infrastructure with continued attacks on bases and radar installations. Attacks on Israel continue, but seem to be less in number but more continual to keep everyone hunkered down in shelters. The economy in Israel is most likely near a standstill. Netanyahu has forbidden all attempts of citizens and duel citizens to leave the country.

At this hour Crude oil futures are at $101. per barrel. Fridays close was $92 and it had risen to over $110 for a period over the weekend. The prices in the U.S. for gas and Fuel oil will reset this afternoon and can be expected to rise substantially. Gas rose 30 cents last week and will probably rise more than that this week. While the U.S. produces much crude it depends on foreign refining capacity as there are fewer refiners still running in the U.S.  Prices of refined products have skyrocketed particularly for aviation fuel. Fertilizer prices have already risen by 70 %, complicating farmers plans for the spring planting. We can expect that all prices will start rising significantly in the near future.

We may expect a shifting of priorities from decimating Tehran to efforts to secure passage through the strait of Hormuz. It could be a very costly engagement, while Iran is allowing some ships to pass, an actual military effort to open, could result in being physically blocked for many months. I would expect this has to be opened or a global financial downturn is imminent.

The N word is increasingly being used either from a frustrated U.S. or a panicked Israel. One wonders if there is the stable leadership available in either country to resist that move. The possibility of the expansion of this war to include much of Europe and then Russia and China increases with every escalation.