Day 31, Phantom talks, ground troops, no end in sight.

 WAR EXPANDS, ESCALATION TRAP CLOSING

HUNKERING DOWN FOR THE LONG HAUL

While we hear reports of negotiations, there is really no serious negotiations underway, only messaging between third parties. This is likely just a tactic to keep oil prices down and preserve stock market levels. It is now anticipated that ground troops are on the near horizon. It could be expected that as many as 70,000 U.S. troops and contributions from Saudi Arabia and Israel will attempt to open the strait of Hormuz. It may very well result in the complete closing of the strait and may require more troops in the future.

The attacks on Iran continue and we may see retaliation to attacks on the oil producing facilities of the Gulf countries, this will extend the growing oil crisis.

Iran understands very well how any attack on the ground can be attempted, there are only a few options. It can be expected that they welcome this opportunity to inflict casualties on the U.S. It is likely they will allow a certain beachhead and then begin a guerilla type war of attrition. This may be just the beginning of a long escalating conflict.

Israel is in a serious conflict in Lebanon, now near a month, and Netanyahu has vowed to double down. It is reported that they have lost dozens of tanks due to drones and anti-tank weapons and Hezbollah is also expecting to now hunker down for a guerilla type conflict. One can expect that Lebanon will soon look like Gaza.

This weekend the Houthis also announced they are entering the war and may very well close off the Red sea. This will disable oil flowing out of Saudi Arabia through the Red sea.

It appears that this conflict will not be over in weeks.

The Gulf countries are all ruled by authoritarian regimes, with populations having diverse loyalties, an extended war in the region may soon ignite internal conflicts that could very well be infectious and no one can predict that outcome. 

Once ground troops are introduced it is very likely just the beginning of this war.