Day, 7, Conflicting objectives, ticking clocks.

 ECONOMIC DAMAGE MAY BE DEFINING RESULT OF WAR

WHO WILL CONTROL THE CLOCK?

After one week, the war with Iran continues, but no clear articulated objective has been given, we can expect there are conflicting objectives. The U.S. seems to wants a change of leadership that can be controlled and allow Iran's oil to be accessible. Trump says he want to pick the next leader. It does not want a chaotic and uncontrollable situation or civil war, the sooner the better. In fact Trump put out hopes of further negotiations within days, soundly rejected by Iran. Trump's days as a serious negotiator are most likely over, not only with Iran, but with Russia and China. He has proved to be untrustworthy and indicates that he has decided to negotiate with military power only. 

Israel wants a similar situation as in Libya and Syria were the country is devastated and Israel has unlimited ability to bomb and keep the country in a state of chaos. 

The Gulf countries want this to end as quickly as possible, their economies depend on the free flow of oil and gas. This war is costing them billions every day. Their status as a safe haven for international business is on the verge of becoming irreparable. While some would like that haven to move to he U.S. or Europe it is most likely to move to Asia.

South Korea has publicly indicated that they have 9 days of Gas reserves. That situation may be similar in Japan and in other countries east of the war of zone. Qatar has shut down its LNG production, due to no where to go with it and it will require 2 weeks to restart.

The EU may be in dire straits within only several weeks. 

It is reported that fuel oil in Pa. is near $4.50 a gallon right now.

Iran is controlling traffic through the strait of Hormuz, only allowing those that they approve.  This can be viewed in real time on Maritime traffic.com. 

Other Gulf producers are still loading empty tankers in the Persian Gulf, but when they are all full, they will have to shut down production. It is not clear how long that will take, or how long to restart.

The U.S. military assets in the gulf states are essentially no longer usable. Either evacuated of personnel or most radar and other uses destroyed. Iran may slow attacks on these bases as they run out of military targets. They have focused on military targets and it seems they have hit the headquarters of Trump and Kushner. They may have also hit hotels housing U.S. personnel.

Iran' s objective is the allow the clock to tick until the world economic situation becomes critical. In contrast to the June war, they have been hitting Israel in small numbers, but all day and night, which increases the instability to Israel's economy. While they may be short on ability, they may also be saving resources until everyone's air defenses are used up.

The Houthis have not yet engaged in the war, one must wonder what they are waiting for?

Israel is now involved in a intense  ground operation in Lebanon with significant casualties on both sides. It is reported that Israel called up another 100,000 reservists with about a 60 % compliance.

Hegseth claims that the U.S. now completely controls the airspace over Iran and that the U.S. will reign "death and destruction" day and night. He also claims this war will change the middle east for the next 1000 years. I cringe when leaders of any country start talking about the next 1000 years. The U.S. has  lost 5 F15's , 3 due to friendly fire from a Kuwaiti F-18 and 2 over Iran. All pilots have escaped unhurt.

The U.S, says it will now intensify the bombing over Iran and that will likely be true, we may see hundreds of thousand of dead Iranians, but it is not clear it will bring a quick end to this war. The clocks are ticking on many situations.