Day 17, Trump asks for help, Iran declares strait open.

 MARINE ASSAULT GROUP ON THE WAY

NO END IN SIGHT, PREPARE FOR LONG CONFLICT

Over the weekend, we see that Trump has called on other nations to send ships to help in keeping the strait of Hormuz open. At the same time Iran has declared that the strait is open to all,  except for their enemies and their allies. Chinese and Indian ships are being allowed through the strait. Iran has made it clear that prior permission is granted on an individual basis and all ships will be considered, except for U.S. and Israeli destined ships. U.S. allies ships, European,  Japan, South Korean will also be granted permission if they are paying for their oil in Yuan and not dollars. This would apply to ships carrying oil originating in the gulf countries. So, would it better to send ships to take control of the strait by force or ask permission under Iran's terms, that will now be the dilemma.

The U.S. has stated that a Marine assault force is in route to the region, most military experts believe their use would be a very risky operation and would undoubtedly result in serious casualties. If this is used to capture Kharg island it could cut off Iranian exports or it could be used to interdict oil tankers after they pass through the strait. Either action would most likely result in Iran damaging the gulf countries ability to produce and transport oil.  The U.S. may find this acceptable in that their more strategic goal is to do damage to China's economy and possibly that of other southeast Asian countries, all part of BRICS economic group.

While accusations of Russian assistance to Iran is being claimed, it is most likely that China has provided the use of their GPS system and providing targeting to Iran. This was widely known for some time, but one wonders if this is still an attempt to divide China and Russia in some way.

Iran has consistently fired 20 to 50 ballistic missiles every day, with increasing percentages of hits in both the Gulf bases and Israel.

Contrary to U.S. claims, they are not flying over Iran, the attacks are coming from missiles in the Gulf countries, stand off missiles fired from the air outside of Iranian air space and tomahawk missiles fired from naval assets. All this ordinance is in short supply. It may take several years to replace the ordinance being used. 

The economies of Iran, Israel, and the gulf countries are mostly at a standstill. The economic consequences will be huge and long lasting.

While it is true Israel pushed for this war, it is not all about Israel, Iran is a pivotal part of the BRICS economic group and Russia and China have a serious interests in Iran maintaining its sovereignty. They can be expected to not allow the total destruction of Iran.

Speculation about the death of Netanyahu and Ben Ge-vir is all over the place. There are denials, but no sightings for days. One can expect that if they are alive we will see them soon.

Iran has made it clear that they have not asked for a ceasefire or any negotiations. They have actually laid out a list of conditions for a lasting agreement that at this time will never be accepted by the U.S.  

This war look's like it will continue for many weeks, if not months.