Birthright citizenship, deserves another look.

 GRANTED CITIZENSHIP TO FORMER SLAVES

PRESENT UNDERSTANDING RIFE WITH ABUSE

The Supreme court is going to review the present understanding of birthright citizenship, it is really way past time. The 14th. amendment was proposed in 1866, 1 year after the end of the civil war, it was ratified in 1868. This amendment was proposed to stop abuse by some states that denied citizenship to some former slaves or questioned their citizenship. It was primarily an amendment that gave full citizenship to all former slaves and those who were born to former slaves.

Today we see lots of abuse in the interpretation of this law, in reality many pregnant women migrate to the United States with the purpose of their newborns to be become instant citizens, then opening the door for other family members. This was never the purpose of the law. In 1868 the country did not have a socialist welfare system. There was little advantage to U.S. citizenship except for the opportunity to have a better life. That has all changed, the immediate financial benefits to being a citizen are enormous and has advantages for anyone who is related to this new citizen.

I do not believe any other country on earth has this interpretation of birthright citizenship. The clause that makes a new interpretation possible is, "subject to the jurisdiction", indicating that those in question parents are legal residents, not persons who have entered the country illegally.

It is very possible that after referring to the arguments made about this amendment when enacted, they will find that this should not apply to the children of illegal immigrants. It would be expected that all those who have received citizenship in the past would be exempt from a new interpretation, but it would clarify the original intent of the amendment in the future.

U.S. debt downgraded.

 U.S. LOSES AAA RATING

INTEREST RATES TO RISE

On Friday Moody's rating agency dropped the AAA rating of U.S. debt. It was the fourth and final rating agency to lower the credit worthiness of U.S. debt. The first was in 2011. This will result in a lowering of U.S. treasury prices and a rise in interest rates. It will also add to the cost to service the massive U.S. debt and add to the deficit. It has the risk of setting off a debt crisis spiral with further downgrades and increased cost of servicing the debt.

The proposed budget for the next year, estimated at $6.8 trillion, did cut $163 Billion in discretionary spending, but added most of that to the proposed defense spending budget of $1.1 trillion. The 2026 budget is expected to remain flat with a deficit of $1.7 Trillion. That translates to 25% of the budget in added debt. The proposals are too little too late to remedy the future of the dollar and the ability of the U.S. to sustain its spending and servicing its debt.

The big blowout this year is the huge increase in defense spending, dwarfing the defense spending of the combined spending of all industrial countries. China spent $314 Billion in 2024 and Russia $149 billion in 2024. While it may be more for 2026 it is no where near the budget of the U.S.. Many expected an audit of the U.S. defense industry, but it looks like it is not going to happen. Just another $150 billion in spending with no accountability. A unsustainable policy that may be the biggest threat to the United States. Our fiscal irresponsibility is a greater threat to this country than Russia and China.

The budgets of both China and Russia would most likely be lower if not for the threats and trash talking engaged in by US. administrations for decades. 

The U.S has 750 bases in over 100 counties, the Russians and Chinese maybe a dozen. Much of this defense spending is paid to foreign countries in the maintenance of these bases and bribes paid to keep them there. Military personnel numbers are the lowest in modern history. U.S. military numbers haves declined 36% since 1980. 

How is it that Russia has been able to produce munitions above the levels of the combined levels of the U.S. and NATO with a budget of near $150 billion. How is it that no one in congress or the media has yet to ask that question?

I suspect that the dependence on U.S. government spending by a an ever increasing number of Americans will not be remedied, but will only be addressed when it all collapses. Congress needs to become responsible, not enablers of this addiction to government spending.

Ukraine and EU still not serious about peace talks.

 CEASEFIRE, JUST PLAY TO CONTINUE WAR

 NO CEASEFIRE, UNTIL PEACE IS IN SIGHT

The media today all had the same headline, Putin did not show for talks in Turkey. There was never a possibility that Putin would go to Turkey to talk to Zelensky. It is unlikely that Putin will ever engage in talks with Zelensky. These types of negotiations will not involve the major leaders until all the details have been concluded, which is not on the horizon.

The reality is, that Ukraine does not want to end the war, until it is in a favorable position, it did not happen with the much touted counter offensive or the incursion into the Kursk region and is evaporating by the day. The EU leaders and Zelensky want a 30 day ceasefire to reposition, rearm and fight some more, there is no incentive for Russia to engage in a ceasefire.

Watching Macron, Starmer and Zelensky in last weekend's coke fueled euphoric conclusion that ended with a demand for 30 day ceasefire was just another delusional attempt to find some way to continue this war. In the next few days it is likely that much of the world will see the sham that is underway. We can expect that the media will continue to try to spin some positive view of the whole thing.

While all this is going on, the delusional leaders of the EU are hoping that Ukraine can keep fighting until Russia is exhausted, then they will bring their envisioned new army to conclude the defeat of Russia. It is yet to be concluded, who will be exhausted first, the EU or Russia. 

New leadership is needed in the EU before any real peace deal can be accomplished in Ukraine, they are surely willing to fight to the last Ukrainian and keep engaging in delusional strategies, hoping for some miracle. Their citizens should be demanding mandatory drug testing for all of them.

Trump makes progress to coexistence.

 POSITIVE PROGRESS UKRAINE, IRAN, CHINA 

MIDEAST TOUR AND NORMALIZATION WITH SYRIA

This week has resulted in positive results on many fronts. Direct talks in Turkey between representatives of Ukraine and Russia, a possible step in the right direction. We can expect this to be a lengthy negotiation, but at least there is hope of ending this conflict within the year. The conflict is almost determined, but the details will be important for future peace in the region.

Progress on a trade deal with China, undoubtedly the toughest nut to crack in Trumps tariff negotiations. Also a warming of the political narrative in an effort to avoid confrontation with China.

It is way past time to demand an end to the trash talking by politicians and some members of the administration, this applies to every conflict, it is not productive and is in fact just juvenile behavior.

Trump's business dealings with the gulf countries is very important in establishing a framework for cooperation with the coming bipolar economic situation. A alternative economic system is going to happen, it does not have to be exclusive situation for either group, but can be a cooperative, respectful and continued economic interaction situation. There can be mutual prosperity without any side dominating.

A warming of relations with Russia and China will have a positive influence on negotiations with Iran. No one will gain with a war with Iran, it is in the worlds best interest if some sort of normalization with Iran can be made. Iran has the opportunity to move into a better place in the world political system, a certain amount of trust needs to acquired by all those involved. Iran has an opportunity for a prosperous future, hopefully they take that opportunity.

A step to normalize relations with Syria and hopefully bring some peace to this devastated country.  It is in the best interest for everyone in the region to have a prosperous and safe Syria for the population. It is just a hopeful beginning, but it will take some time to see if this can be accomplished.

This week we did see a step back from a possible WW3, just a step, but we can hope it will continue.

Paying for access to the biggest consumer market.

 MOST MARKET ACCESS IS NOT FREE

MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE MUST BE PAID FOR BY SOMEONE

It is a fact that every time sellers and buyers are offered a forum to conduct business there are costs, usually to the seller, to pay for the infrastructure. This applies to shows and markets where buyers and sellers meet to conduct business.

Another fact is that grocery stores often charge sellers shelf space that is often in the 100's of thousands of dollars per year. These cost help to defray their overhead in providing a place where buyers can easily find the products offered by sellers.

On a national level, the United States is, without a doubt, the largest consumer market in the world. If you have things to sell, this is the market you want to access. Should this market be free to anyone who wants sell their products here?  The reality is this market it supported by a massive infrastructure that is primarily paid for by U.S. taxpayers. 

Domestic sellers help pay for this infrastructure through taxes, fees, permits and other costs. Should foreign sellers assume some of the cost associated with the maintaining of the infrastructure for this massive market?

This infrastructure includes roads, railways and airports all used for the importation of goods to be sold in the USA.

So, how can Americans recoup some of these costs from foreign competitors who have enjoyed access to this lucrative market.

Direct annual payments from sellers to the U.S. would be the fairest possibility. maybe a percentage of their sales. Or maybe their government should assume costs in some way. The other option is a tariff on all goods entering the country.

At present, Trump has placed a 10% tariff on all goods entering the country. It appears this tariff is going to remain, all the other tariffs are negotiating incentives that are expected to be temporary until satisfactory agreements are concluded.

The tariff, while a good idea, maybe not the best solution because everyone will pay for this except domestic manufacturers. This gives the domestic manufactures at least a little repayment for all the costs they have with maintaining this infrastructure. 

The point is, trade is not free, it has lots of associated costs that need to be paid by someone. All partners need to help pay for the costs of this market.

The Secession threat in Canada is real.

 ALBERTA IS LEADING THE DISILLUSIONED

POLLING SHOWS BIGGER PROBLEM THAN JUST ALBERTA

On May 5, the Premiere of Alberta Canada, Danielle Smith,  gave a speech to fellow Albertans and to the leadership in Canada laying out the plans for Albert's future.

According to Smith, Alberta is forming a committee to meet with the leadership in Ottawa to lay out their demands for resolution of grievances that have been festering for at least the last 10 years. Then in the next year the results of these negotiations will be put to referendum to the people of Alberta and included in that referendum will be a vote on whether to have a vote on Secession. 

Smith made it clear that she hopes that the concerns of Albertans will be taken seriously by the leadership in Ottawa. Smith claims the western regions of Canada are the main income producing parts of Canada, and in effect they are subsidizing the eastern part of the country. The other issue is that the policies that have been coming out of Ottawa do not recognize or take into account the concerns of Albertans. These policies have hampered and obstructed Albertans in their economic pursuits and Ottawa seems to have a low opinion of the working people of Alberta. 

The speech made it clear that this is a serious concern and in the end the people of Alberta will be voting on their future by 2026.

Canada is a resource country, one of the largest in the world, most of its GDP come from resources and it seems the eastern elite would, in effect, like to end that as it seems to be below their idea of how life should be conducted.

Polling shows that Alberta is not alone, the citizens of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and northern British Columbia have very similar opinions. It is likely that if Alberta goes down this path, more will follow very quickly. 

Western Canadians are conservative and all very independent, a secession from Canada would most likely be a vote for independence, I would expect they would not be interested in exchanging masters in Ottawa for masters in Washington.

It seems much will depend on the ability of the new government to appease the western Canadians or will they double down and insist on obedience. It does appear that pivotal diplomatic decisions on the future of Canada are going to have to be made.

EU demands immediate ceasefire OR?

 SANCTION EXPANSION TO MORE COUNTRIES

DESPERATION LEADS TO DUMB TALK

This weekend, Zelensky, Starmer, Macron and several others had a meeting and decided that they needed to demand that Russia engage in a 30 day unconditional ceasefire. Their threat, if not accepted, is that they will impose crushing sanctions on Russia. I am amazed that they have any more sanctions to impose on Russia. I suspect they are now considering placing sanctions on China, India or any other country that is trading with Russia. It will have the same effect as former sanctions, further destruction of their own economies with no result to end the conflict in Ukraine.

Russia's response was that they are willing to engage in direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul. It is no secret as to their position, it is the same as it was before the conflict began, only that everyday Ukraine loses more ground that Russia does not desire to return. 

Zelensky then made his demand to have face to face negotiations with Putin, another non starter. I suspect that Putin will never engage in talks with Zelensky, who Russia believes is an illegitimate leader since his term expired a year ago. If talks happen, it will be the usual lower level negotiators. I am doubtful that talks will happen as Zelensky and his allies in the EU are not ready to admit defeat. 

An unconditional 30 day ceasefire is an obvious attempt to allow Ukraine to reorganize and refresh it supplies and manpower to fight some more. Without serious offers to end the conflict, Russia will not enter into such a ceasefire, even if there should be negotiations.

As for Trump bringing an end to this conflict, it is clear that no American president can act as a co-combatant and a mediator at the same time. While Erdogan of Turkey is a notorious double dealer, he is the closest thing to a non partisan actor in the region.

At one time there were neutral player in Europe, but that is now past, there is no one that can act as a mediator, who has not taken sides.

It should be expected that this conflict will continue for some time, until someone,  probably Ukraine, is in a position similar to WW2 Germany or Japan. It is likely the only solution that can end in lasting peace.