Ukraine crisis could be an opportunity if we had real diplomats.

 RUSSIA NEED NOT BE OUR ENEMY

A PRAGMATIC AND OBJECTIVE VIEW OF WORLD AFFAIRS IS NEEDED

While Putin and Russia has been demonized by our state department and media, an objective view is that Russia has not pursued territorial expansion since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Russia is not our natural enemy, but could be our ally in many ways. In fact, there has been lots of joint cooperation with Russia in the last 20 years.

While Russia has been forced to make alliances with Communist China by our economic isolation, it is a weak and distrusted alliance by the Russians. At one time we embraced Communist China to weaken their alliance with the Soviet Union. We have now become dependent on China for many of our basic needs. China is by far a more real threat to the United States than Russia.

What Russia is asking for is not unreasonable and could be accommodated in the best interest of Russia, Ukraine and the European union. We could negotiate some compromises from Russia. While this could be an opportunity, it is unlikely to actually happen, as our state department is hunkered down in their containment policy with Russia. It is a failed policy, that this president will unlikely be able to shake off.

It is very likely that Russia will not invade Ukraine, but instead begin a policy of bleeding the United States and the Nato allies with a cheap but effective policy of no longer cooperating but making life more uncertain and more expensive with a constant threat of some crisis, this coupled with their advantages in cyber warfare can cause us to have a very expensive existence.

In last decade Russia has modernized their military and made huge inroads in the ability to cancel out our technological advantages both on the ground and in space. They may feel that they no longer need to match us in equipment, but just have the ability to make much of our sophisticated equipment inoperative.

All of this is unnecessary, but our intransigence has created this situation and now we will see if we have anyone with the diplomatic skills to change direction.

Ukraine is now a partitioned country. If anyone believes that Russia will allow Ukraine to become a member of NATO and be a hostile player on their border is delusional. Just as we would feel if Mexico would decide to join a union opposed to our well-being. This is the policy supported by the U.S. foreign policy experts.

What we should be doing is considering a peaceful transition of Ukraine into an independent, non-aligned nation with trade ability with all its neighbors. Biden is likely to spout the policy of his entrenched advisors and insist on Nato membership for Ukraine. The U.S. has not encouraged a relationship of cooperation, but constant derision and animosity toward Russia, who now understands that short of submission, there is no other option to be offered.

A free independent Ukraine, that would have the ability to trade with who ever is in its best interests. If this is not possible there will be a permanent partition of Ukraine, with the eastern part, who has mostly a Russian population, closely aligned with Russia. 

It is likely that if the pressure to squeeze and encircle  Russia continues and if it feels its national interests are severely threatened, War may be viewed as their only alternative.