Ukraine counteroffensive, last best hope.

 COUNTEROFFENSIVE AGAINST HARDENED RUSSIAN LINES, LONG SHOT AT BEST

THOUSAND MORE LIVES IN EXCHANGE FOR HOPE OF A NEGOTIATION TOOL

There is much talk of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive beginning in the next few weeks. One must wonder why it would be a daily advertised event, if there was hope of a reversal on the battlefield of Ukraine. Certainly no surprise, but a very real chance of massive disappointment, both to the Ukrainian populace and the planners in Washington.

It seems there has been a hope in Washington of a massive reversal on the battlefield, an event that could be used to obtain favorable negotiations with Russia. While much is made that Russia has not taken much territory in the last few months, it s also true that the military of Ukraine, both men and equipment, has been severely diminished. The air force has been mostly eliminated, the air defense has been severely compromised and the experienced and well trained troops have mostly become casualties. Sadly, an offensive may be just a last ditch effort that will be the cause of massive deaths.

In the last few months the Russians have hardened their lines, and have substantial reserves in the rear. They have been intent on conducting this war on the ground of their choosing, 700 + miles from the Ukrainian source of resupply in Poland and Romania. It has been whether planned or not a war of attrition and it is clear who can sustain this effort.

The Europeans want out of this conflict sooner rather than later, they are suffering both in energy shortages and unrest from their populace. Support from Americans is slowing evaporating. At the same time the foreign policy geniuses in Washington are unwilling to admit defeat at any cost to the proxy Ukrainian forces. It is becoming who is going to give it up first, obviously the Europeans and Ukrainians have the most at risk by prolonging this conflict.

The Russians have all but given up on a negotiated settlement that was on the table both before the onset of the conflict and in the early stages of this war. With revelations about the duplicity of the Minsk accords and the lack of trust in any agreements with the administration in Washington, this will be settled on the battlefield one way or the other. A short supply line, an economy actually growing,  military manufacturing on war time footing, Russia is preparing to fight this war until both NATO, Washington and Ukraine are ready to say, NO MORE. There will not be a cease fire or end to fighting that will allow the Ukrainians to rearm or be propped up with western mercenaries.

It now appears that the Europeans will likely be more economically devastated by the conflict than Russia. If Russia just continues to do what it is doing they most likely can keep this up indefinitely. Can the Europeans or the the United States?

While a counteroffensive is the hoped for action, they are also talking of allowing Poland to take over western Ukraine and insure that Russia cannot overcome all of Ukraine. It is unclear if any such deal can be agreed to by Ukraine It seems they are doomed no matter what the result.

It is clear there will either be a counteroffensive by Ukraine or a increased offensive action by Russia, as soon as the weather and the land can support a large scale troop movement in the region. This may not happen before May or June, it will all depend on when the mud is replaced with firm ground. Either way it can be expected the conclusion of this Ukrainian tragedy will be over before the end of 2023.