Trump, from peacemaker to Netanyahu clone.

 DIRE FUTURE FOR TRUMP AND ISRAEL

SHORT TERM EUPHORIA WILL BE SHORT LIVED

The combined forces of the U.S. and Israel can destroy Iran as a viable country, but unconditional surrender is very unlikely. We will most likely be in for years if not decades of conflict just in the middle east. Military victory will not secure peace, but most likely will add to the isolation of the U.S. and Israel for the foreseeable future.

While the long term goal of Netanyahu can be reached, the future of Israel as a viable country is in doubt. Will the population decline, as the young and talented leave? Will Israel have any stable economic relationships in the future? If Iran is eliminated, will it solve the Palestinian problem? Will the final solution for the Palestinians be the ultimate solution? Who will be the next enemy to be eliminated, Turkey or Egypt, whose populations are outraged? The hopes of the Abraham accords are dead, because emotion and lust for vengeance has overridden any rational policy.  

As for Trump, he has destroyed his credibility as a negotiator for peace and coexistence, his only alternative left will be brute force, just another extension of the last 30 years of foreign policy. The world now knows, that the objective is still submission or death and destruction. 

We can expect the fence sitters in the non western world, 80% of the world's population, to now understand the realities of the West, hoping to sustain their ultimate control of the planet. It will be submission, never coexistence and cooperation.

The opposition will avoid war at all costs, but the resistance will be subtle and earthshaking at the same time. A slow and steady degradation of economic and political power, the seeds which have been sown for decade by hubris, irresponsible economic policy and the failure to respect anyone, but their own desires for power. Time alone will allow the self destruction from within to become reality. A bigger defense budget will not insure survival.

The question is not the inevitable decline, but will the lashing out in despair take the world down, rather than accept that the past power is no longer sustainable. 

U.S. prepares to enter war.

 GLOBAL WAR RISK INTENSIFIES

END OF NEGOTIATIONS

The U.S. is rushing several carrier groups to the Persian gulf and aerial refueling planes are in route to Europe. It is clear that the U.S. is about to join in the destruction of Iran. While many cheer today, the repercussions are going to be long lasting and now lessen the chances of any negotiated settlement anywhere. It is now clear that the U.S. policy of death and destruction is alive and thriving. 

Yesterday, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, announced their neutrality and forbade the use of U.S.bases to be used for attacks on Iran. This will limit U.S. forces to operate from aircraft carriers and from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, hence the need for refueling planes. Whether they will be able to use airspace over Turkey is still not clear.

At present, there are 3 tankers burning near the straits of Hormuz after collisions and there are multiple reports of navigational GPS signals being scrambled.

The U.S. state department has cancelled furthur diplomatic talks with Russia.

Israel has blocked live videos for Haifa and other sites. 

The introduction of assassination of political leaders and professors and civilian scientists is now to become much more common, as this precedent has now been put in motion. No country will now be immune for such attacks.

We can now expect that China will restrict the export of all critical materials to western countries. This may also be spread to other suppliers of critical materials. It will be done quietly, but it can be expected. The cessation of trade from China may become a real possibility. We may soon find out who is dependent on Chinese trade.

There may be massive liquidation of U.S. treasury's. 

One would expect that Russia will be on high alert for a preemptive strike by western powers and visa-versa, the chance of nuclear confrontation is now at the highest level in history. We are now entering the uncharted waters of who will want to use a pre-emptive strike first.

The world is on the edge of catastrophe and it seems there is no turning back.

Spreading of WAR inevitable.

 U.S. CAN BE EXPECTED TO COME TO ISRAEL'S RESCUE

OTHERS IN REGION WILL AID IRAN

While this seems to be an intense war in progress, it is most likely just the beginning. Make no mistake, the goal of Israel's leadership has been openly calling for the "Libyan Plan" concerning Iran.  This was the hope to disarm Iran and then subvert and ultimately reduce the country into a chaotic and ineffective country. So far, Israel has been effective at starting that process, but one can be sure that Iran and its citizens know that it is in a existential fight for its existence. This war is going to get much worse and bring in more players. I do not expect anyone to attempt ground operations into Iran, as this will bring on calls from the entire Islamic world for fighters and resistance.

I suspect that this plan by Israel is going near as expected and its goal is to draw the U.S. into this fight. There will be overwhelming pressure within the U.S. to save Israel. At the same time Iran's neighbors will be under immense internal pressure to aid Iran. Even though Iran is not that popular with many in the region, they also understand that they will also be in peril in the future. We can expect demonstrations and rioting in Jordon and Egypt by the population. We should expect attacks on U.S. bases, even if secretly by Israel, to being the U.S. into the war.

Pakistan has indicated that if Israel uses nuclear weapons they will respond in kind. 

Turkey, not a fan of Israel, will use any opportunity to damage Israel and add to its position in the region.

This war may be the most unifying action for the Islamic world since the crusades.

Then there is the other hidden agenda of attempting to weaken the BRICS group's economic plans for the future. Iran is a pivotal geographic player in the silk road and the hope of avoiding sea lane commerce in the future. 

China, Russia, India and others do not want a devastated and unstable Iran. It is very likely they will give Iran material support and even weapons support. It is not about ideology it is about economic plans for the future.

There are reports that China is already sending support to Iran and they have access through Afghanistan. 

Then on the ground in Israel, they are using up their defensive missiles at a staggering rate. Their defenses have been doing well, but can they maintain a weeks or months long assault. Drones and even unarmed missiles will require a response and Iran may be holding back its most advanced and effective weapons until Israel starts to move defenses around to protect priority locations.

This is not about Iranian nuclear weapons, it is ultimately about control of mideast oil and the effort disrupt the move by much of the world to an alternative economic system. Control rather than co-existance and cooperation. It is a southern version of the Ukraine conflict. It is unlikely that it can be stopped, we can only hope for the best that this will not escalate into the ultimate end of civilization.

Common planners of Russian and Iranian attacks.

 NO COINCIDENCE THAT BOTH ATTACKS HAVE SAME DESIGN AND AGENDA

TRUMP NOT IN CONTROL, OR INEPTLY DEVIOUS

It is interesting that in the last 2 weeks we have seen two events with common themes. Drones smuggled into both Russia and Iran, then simultaneously activated causing massive damage to both countries. Both done while in the midst of negotiations and within days of the next meetings. Then the narrative is that both Russia and Iran should now cave to the demands of the negotiators. In both cases, the demands are surrender.  In both cases, it will more likely result in an escalation of violence and possibly WW3. Is this just someones delusional hopes or is the goal WW3.

Then the other coincidence is that both the Ukraine war and now the Iran war had similar objectives.  Cause a great strain in the political leadership and then the regimes will crumble and a new regime that is willing to submit is placed in power. So far, the Russian plan has not worked out, after 3 years, Russia is still standing and is at this point dominating, both economically and militarily. In fact, the NATO countries are struggling to find a way out with honor.

In the new war with Iran, it is clear that the hope is that the existing government will cave or be overthrown. That may be the case, but if this becomes a drawn out and long lasting war, all bets are off. Trump will have been trapped into entering this war on the side of Israel, no matter the cost. You can also expect that both Russia and China will provide massive material support to Iran. It could very likely become a copy of the Ukraine conflict in reverse. The advocates for nuclear weapons in Iran may now convince opponents that only nuclear weapons can secure real defense in today's world. A very tangled web that can very easily expand to WW3.

Has Trump been playing the good cop, bad cop strategy. He is the good cop and the EU and Netanyahu are the bad cops. I suspect that his strategy is now over.

Trump as a negotiator with opponents is now most likely dead. He is either been devious in his negotiations or is no longer in control of U.S. foreign policy. Either way his credibility is destroyed with all negotiations, both concerning war or trade. This may have been the goal of the entrenched bureaucracy, that has fashioned U.S. foreign policy for the last 30 years. The policy of death and destruction.

It may now be evident to all the U.S. adversaries and new potential adversaries, which there may be many, that all negotiations are fruitless. The only options are submission and death or victory. This will be apparent to Russia and China, the biggest prizes in the regime change policy of world domination. 

Israel attacks Iran.

 IRANIAN MILITARY LEADERS AND SCIENTISTS KILLED

SHORT TERM VICTORY WITH LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES

In the last 12 hours Israel has attacked Iran's military leadership and some of its nuclear facilities. It is expected that more attacks will follow. So far, Iran has only launched some Drones in the direction of Israel, often just a means of identifying defensive positions for more serious retaliation from missiles.

The U.S. has denied involvement, which will be evident in the coming day, if true.

So far, it appears Israel's raid has been successful with limited casualties on the Israeli side.

Some believe such an attack can cause the overthrow of the present government in Iran, or it may just harden or confirm the support of the Iranian people, we will have to wait and see.

Iran has the ability to do extensive damage to Israel, the question may be that world public opinion, that Israel is increasingly out of control, may be more damaging than a Iranian counter attack.

Most of the Leaders in the region have condemned the attack and it can be expected that in the long run, the opposition to Israel will be hardened. 

The reality is that Iran is large country with near a 100 million population. It is well educated and has been in existence for 5000 years. One can expect that the possibility of a nuclear armed Iran will now be a certainty. In the modern world, only nuclear armed countries seem be able to avoid attacks.

A full scale response by Iran can be devastating and no one should believe that Israel will hesitate to use nuclear weapons if its survival is in doubt.

Very early in this story, we can expect repercussions around the world.

Iran war imminent, or more psych-ops.

 TRUMP EVACUATES MIDEAST EMBASSIES AND CIVILIANS

IRAN TARGETS U.S. BASES AND ISRAEL'S NUKES

Increased threats from Iran and Israel indicates war is imminent. Iran has refused to commit to give up its nuclear industry that provides power for electric and desalination plants. Earlier Iran and the U.S. has agreed to limit nuclear enrichment to limits for domestic energy. Russia had agreed to take possession of any highly enriched Uranium and an inspection policy was agreed to. Then at the insistence of Benjamin Netanyahu, the goal was raised to a total ban on any nuclear production. This led to a total rejection by Iran and has now set off another indication of an imminent attack by Israel. An attack that would be impossible without U.S. backup.

Iran and the U.S. are supposed to meet on Sunday in Oman for another round of talks, there is speculation that the evacuations and threats are another attempt to intimidate Iran to agree to a total ban, an unlikely possibility, as it would make Iran dependent on foreign powers for their resources.

Iran has indicated that any attack will result in a response by Iran against the bases of the U.S. and also targeting Israel nuclear facilities and nuclear weapons storage sites. Is does seem that Iran has the capability to cause severe damage to both.

An Iran war will have serious economic and political consequences for the world. A likely huge increase in oil prices, the possibility of other powers in the region becoming participants and the possibility that both Russia and China will intervene, if Iran's destruction becomes imminent.

There is also the possibility for serious if not existential damage to Israel. Iran is not Iraq of 1980, it has far more capability to launch a devastating counter offensive, that may overwhelm Israel's much touted air defenses. No one can predict the result of this possible war with Iran.

Trump has been trying to avoid this crisis, but it seems both the leadership of Israel and many of its supporters in the U.S. congress want a devastating attack on Iran, no matter the outcome, it will have a negative effect on the world.

Ukraine conflict end, key to solving most problems.

 SOLUTIONS TO MUTIPLE CRISIS DEPENDENT ON UKRAINE SOLUTION

PERMANENT RESOLUTION NEEDED

Today we have multiple crisis underway, everything from war in the middle east, economic collapse of the western countries and a new emerging alternative economic system. Too many difficult problems to address at one time.

In reality, the easiest situation to solve is the Ukraine problem. The solution has been there for years, but it is a solution that NATO will not accept. Ukraine, Georgia and other border countries with Russia cannot peacefully be incorporated into NATO, just like the U.S. would never accept a competitors military alliance in Canada or Mexico. This should not be difficult to understand, yet it seems denial and hypocrisy and hubris is overwhelming rational thinking in NATO countries. This coupled with the covetnesses for Russian resources has put the world on the edge of WW3 and complicated all the other crisis around the world.

The sooner this situation is resolved, the sooner cooperation by the west with Russia and others can focus on reasonable solutions for all these pressing problems. 

As this conflict continues, what was an easy situation has now become much more difficult. Russia is not going to return those areas with a predominate Russian population back to Ukraine, nor will they accept a NATO presence in Ukraine. While this a hard pill for those who put all their chips on this project, it is the reality.

Then there is the reality that prolonged warfare has created a future of economic crisis for the U.S. and other NATO countries. Much of the accumulated national debt of the U.S. is directly attributed to over 30 years of endless war. The sanctions involved in the Ukraine conflict has caused serious erosion of the economic situation in all of Europe and much of the world. Then there is the reality that Ukraine cannot win this conflict unless NATO is ready to usher in WW3. with all the consequences. 

The narrative that Russia wants to occupy Poland and the Baltic countries and then Germany and France is a ridiculous narrative, There is nothing these countries have that Russia needs or wants. Russia is motivated by national security on their western border, a historical reality for centuries. Most of the invasions, including the German invasion of WW2 were motivated by those coveting the resources of Russia not the other way around. 

While this situation is now much more difficult than a neutral Ukraine 10 years ago, it will require some humility and a return to reality to save the world from further disaster.

Democrats all in on open borders, huge political error.

 DEMOCRATS GIVE TRUMP MASSIVE POLITICAL OPPORTUNITY

IS THIS THEIR POLICY CENTER PIECE?

Six months since the last election and Democrats are still wandering in the wilderness in a search for political relevance. For 8 years they staked their fortune on anti-Trump positions and now they have yet to find any meaningful policy that resonates with the American people. If they are willing to stake their political future on supporting illegal immigration, they are destined for a dismal future. That battle has been fought and they have lost. 

They are also opposing all attempts to cut off medicaid for those not eligible, particularly illegal immigrants.  That and other social benefits that should be reserved for citizens and legal residents.

They have abandoned their traditional anti-war positions and now may be more pro-war than the Republicans. Even supporting huge increases in defense spending without any accountability.

Of course, they still oppose any budget reductions, as do many Republican's, even with a $2 trillion deficit and $37 Trillion in debt. 

I am not aware of any positive policies that they stand for, only more anti Trump. If he is for it, they are against it. More of the same polices of the last 8 years. 

While they have backed off of some of the woke agenda, I suspect that it is still brewing in the background. If they could, they would be pushing it as before.

So now it is opposition to deporting any illegal immigrants, even with lengthy criminal records, a loser position both politically and morally. 

Now, with protests and riots reminiscent of their last focus on destroying police and law and order, they have gone all in on this new effort to discredit Trump. A gift for Trump, who must have been awake at night hoping for the Democrats to take this position, they just cant help themselves in not opposing anything Trump. 

Trump will do all that is necessary in protecting ICE, border patrol, and federal buildings, it seems democrats will reflexively oppose him at every turn. 

Trump ends silence on Triad attack.

 DENIES KNOWLEDGE, CONDEMNS UKRAINES ACTIONS

U.S. CAN NO LONGER BE TIED UP IN UKRAINE

Over the weekend, Trump finally made a statement on the Ukrainian attack on Russia's nuclear deterrent. He claims he had no knowledge and condemned the action. He also stated that he understood Russia's retaliation. While this does add some clarification, it does not end the suspicion that U.S. intelligence was involved, possibly without White House knowledge. Some claim that it was assisted by U.K. intelligence.

The massive retaliation against Ukraine continued over the weekend and some believe any attacks on hotels or apartment buildings were attacks on NATO personnel, who often are housed in those facilities.

Meanwhile Zelenskiy is refusing to take possession of the 6000, deceased Ukrainian soldiers that Russia wants to hand over to Ukraine. It seems there is also a question if Ukraine is going to accept the over 1000 critically wounded and underage POW'S currently held by Russia. Maybe some deal could be struck for the UK and France and other NATO members to take them as a humanitarian gesture. They are ready to escalate the war, resulting in these dead and wounded, maybe they need to take some responsibility for the results of their support.

In a a nationwide speech in Tehran, Khamenei clearly stated that Iran will not be forced to give up its ability to enrich Uranium for energy and scientific purposes. That Iran will not accept dependence and it ability to be self reliant. No one expected that the recent demands to force total elimination of nuclear enrichment, even for peaceful purposes, would be accepted by Iran. The calls for an attack on Iran will now be expected to be increased. Russia has volunteered to help negotiate and join in supervising the inspection of nuclear facilities.

We continually hear about the majority of U.S. Senators want an attack on Iran and escalation with the war with Russia. Of course, they all want Trump to make that decision. Maybe its time for Trump to look to the constitutional mandate that war is to be declared by congress. If they want war, they should vote for war, not hope someone else takes the blame when it all goes to hell. If they want war, they should go on the record and vote for war.

 

Attack on Russia's nuclear deterrent requires severe retaliation.

 RUSSIAN DOCTRINE, ATTACK ON DETERRENT SAME AS NUCLEAR WAR

PUTIN IS WAITING FOR TRUMP'S CLARIFICATION

According to Russia's nuclear doctrine any attack on their nuclear deterrent is to be considered an attempt to weaken their response in a nuclear war, it requires a nuclear response. Putin made this clear in his conversation with Trump, but said, at this time, Russia is considering this attack as a  terrorist attack. This will be the case until he hears a clarification from Trump on the U.S. position or participation in this attack. Silence will most likely confirm that Trump and the U.S. participated and approved of this attack.

Most analysts believe that this attack was coordinated with Ukrainian actors, MI6 the CIA and possibly other intelligence agencies.

The question remains, did Trump know and approve, or was this attack done without his knowledge. If he approved, he will be on notice that any such attack in the future will be responded to as a nuclear attack. If he did not know, then there is deep trouble internally in the U.S., something that is already evident.

Considering Lindsey Graham's bluster in Kiev this weekend and some remarks by Trump, that if it was not for him, some bad things will happen to Russia, I expect somebody in the Trump administration knew about this.

As for now, we can expect a severe response on Ukraine, most likely a response far above what has been in the past. Russia has not yet attacked the bridges over the Dnieper or government buildings in Kiev. By declaring the Kiev government a terrorist government, Russia will consider those targets fair game. 

We can expect Trump will be notified by Russia as to their decision, although we will never hear of it. 

While Russia publicly considers Trump's efforts sincere, privately he is suspected of double dealing with Putin. a stupid good cop, bad cop attempt. If this is true, he will be in the same category with Starmer, Macron and the other NATO leaders. While negotiations will continue, his word will indeed be worthless, both with Russia and all those observing. While this may be the intent of those in the U.S. and NATO to undermine Trump, only actions by Trump can clarify what is true.

Trump may have a very small window to change this view.

China and BRICS big winner from Ukraine war.

 MOVE TO ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC SYSTEM ACCELERATES

EUROPE DESTINED TO DECLINE

While the U.S. and Europe continues to escalate the Ukraine conflict, the rest of the world is being convinced that a new and separate economic system is inevitable. This system is hoping to still cooperate with the west's dominated system, but no longer be abused and controlled.

The use of economic sanctions and the latest proposal to not only sanction Russia, but anyone who does business with Russia, will hasten and convince more nations to look to this new system. While all these sanctions are supposed to isolate Russia they are increasingly isolating the west. While the U.S. and Europe are big markets, there is a whole new growling global market that would like very much to get out from under the thumb of the existing system. A system that is now a negative foreign policy competing with a positive economic policy of Russia and China and the other BRICS members.

The existing system has morphed into a increasingly negative policy of sanctions, threats and punishment, not only with other countries but as for Europe even at home. China and the BRICS group have focused on mutual economic development and prosperity by building mutual beneficial economic enterprises. Increasing prosperity in Africa has then opened more markets for China and will allow them to replace difficult markets in the west. 

An example is in Ethiopia, a pivotal country with over 100 million, China has built a new modern port and then a series of textile manufacturing plants that has put many Ethiopian women to work manufacturing textile plants. They are increasing their standard of living and then providing a market for other Chinese goods. Africa is steadily moving away from their neocolonial rulers like France and looking for a better deal from other BRICS members. This is happening all over the emerging world.

In Europe we see increasing desperation, lack of resources, political turmoil that is increasing, increasingly moving toward an authoritarian policy, currency controls to stem the flight of money out of the region. They are on a path to decline and failure.

The U.S, has more options, but many of the same problems, only a reversal of the policy of negative sanctions and threats and a realization that the dominance of the west is ending. A realization and a shift to a positive era of economic respect and cooperation with the rest of the world will allow its many advantages to result in increased prosperity and peace. 

Ukraine's desperation, Trump's deafening silence.

 RUSSIA, STILL NO RETALIATION

IS THIS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM?

We have seen attacks deep into Russia, most likely a suicide mission by the personeel on the ground. We also see another attack on the Kursk bridge in Crimea and other bridges in Russia's borderland. So far, no military response from Russia, no clarification about who is running U.S. foreign policy, by Trump. Meanwhile, no ceasefire agreement from Russia, there will not be one, just the same steady eastward advance day after day.

We see Hegseth is not attending the big meeting in Brussels about Ukraine's need for more support, but will attend the NATO meeting on Thursday. Some clarification by the Trump administration is needed, silence will indicate he is no longer in charge of U.S. foreign policy, but most likely the same actors who have running the world for the last 3 decades. If that is the case, prepare for war.

We see dramatic declarations by Starmer in the UK that they are preparing for war. raising the army numbers form 74,000, to 76,000, a couple months worth of casualties in Ukraine. Expanding the youth or children corps by 30%, I suspect parents are standing in line to sign up their kids. This coupled with a list of new submarines, laser weapons and robots planned for the future, no mention of how the funding is going to be arranged. It appears to be the same kind of EU bluster that is all contingent on sucking the U.S. into a expanded war in Europe. A war that neither the EU or the U.S. is economically and politically capable of fighting. No matter, Russia needs to be beaten at any cost. 

The big NATO meeting is Thursday and it will be interesting to hear the same proclamations of supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes, much longer than originally expected. Calls for Ukraine in NATO and all the rest. all hoping for a miracle to turn to tide. 

How about retuning to reality and starting a conversation about co-existance and cooperation in moves toward peace. Russia seeks divorce, not conquest of Europe, Russia has no need for anything in Europe, just assurances that they no longer hope to dismember their country and make Russia a resource colony. 

 

Ukraine's euphoria will be short lived.

 A WELL COORDINATED AND EXECUTED PLAN 

WILL NOT AFFECT OUTCOME OF CONFLICT

Over the weekend Ukraine was able to inflict serious losses on Russia's strategic bomber fleet. A fleet the must be parked on open runway's as per international nuclear arms treaty. This provision was agreed to by both the United States and Russia so that everyone could know where these planes are by satellite and other surveillance means. It can be assumed that the United States provided that satellite information to Ukraine.

While a lose to Russia, these planes are a strategic part of their nuclear triad, Planes, submarines and ICBM's. They will have little effect on the war in Ukraine, unless it goes nuclear. One must wonder if this is a pre-emptive strike by NATO in anticipating that possibility.

Some seem to delusionally believe that Russia will now agree to a ceasefire and give up this conflict. It will not, and probably is now more hardened in their belief that only surrender by Ukraine will be acceptable. While talks will continue, there will not be a ceasefire that will rescue the Ukrainians on the ground. 

In reality this conflict has, up to now, been a limited operation by Russia. They have not declared war or actually went to an all out war footing. There is much pressure on Putin, by the Russian military and other political leaders to get this over with, rather than a long drawn out incremental conflict. So far, Putin has prevailed, hoping that sooner or later NATO will find that they cannot continue this drain on their economies and political will. NATO still believes the same will apply to Russia, except that Russia knows this conflict is an existential threat to their existence and will continue, no matter how severe the consequences.

At the same time China, presently a bystander, knows that after Russia, they are next on the menu. Their fate is now strategically tied to Russia's. The same goes for Iran and many more of the countries not part of NATO. 

This is what the prelude to global war looks like.

Trump foreign policy, Duplicity or Sabotage?

 TRUMP'S FOREIGN POLICY IS ON LIFE SUPPORT

ONLY ACTION CAN SAVE IT

Just 2 weeks ago it seemed that Trump had succeeded in lowering the risk of WW3. A lot has happened in the last week to again move the world closer to the brink of global war. Some has to do with Trump's own doing by his failing to articulate a consistent message and then the reality of his words not matching actions by U.S. military and intelligence agencies.

Last week after Ukraine sent near 2000 drones into Russia including an incident with Putin's helicopter, Trump labeled Putin crazy for his response on Ukrainian drone sites and possibly U.S. and NATO personnel operating in Ukraine. When asked about the incident, concerning Putin's helicopter, Trump claimed to have no knowledge about the incident. This immediately raised red flags everywhere, that either Trump was lying or the U.S. military and intelligence are operating independent of Presidential authority. Either one is a death blow for any possible negotiations of a peaceful end to the conflict in Ukraine or the middle east.

The other possibility is that intelligence actors are intentionally attempting to sabotage any efforts by Trump to avoid war. War would undoubtedly end any attempts by Trump to reform the U.S. Government and those who have orchestrated U.S. foreign policy for the last 30 years. War may be a small price for these actors if it will neuter Trump for the rest of his presidency.

It is no secret that much of the intelligence, targeting and planning for Ukraine is being done by U.S. and NATO personnel on the ground in Ukraine. The last 2 weekends of serious attacks into Russia are aided by those personnel. After this weekends attack on airbases and highway and rail infrastructure we can expect a significant response from Russia against Ukraine and NATO personnel. This coupled with Lindsey Grahams visit to Kiev promising them that the U.S. will do all that it can for a win against Russia, a win that would end in nuclear Armageddon.

Then there is so called negotiations with Iran, after every agreement by Iran on the principles the anti is raised to make it impossible of Iran to ever agree to to a total disarmament and then the likely military destruction of their country. This is Netanyahu's Libyan policy, disarm, then assasinate and destroy. Most everyone is now aware of that plan. Under those conditions there will not be any agreement with Iran. Then it is being reported that over 70 U.S. senators have told Trump that the budget bill will not be passed unless he agrees to cooperate in an attack on Iran.  Trump has been again trying to avoid war with Iran, knowing that it will derail his presidency, just what powerful actors want.

It is clear that Trump is being boxed in to do as powerful force want or he will be destroyed. He has been here before, will it take another miracle for him to escape the machinations of those who desire his and possibly world destruction.

Looks like no escaping U.S. debt, deficit trap.

 UNWILLINGNESS TO ENDURE PAIN WILL HAVE CONSEQUENCES

ONLY SEVERE CRISIS WILL BRING REMEDY

The latest budget was a example of what happens when a country is caught in a debt, deficit trap. While some savings were enacted, the overall budget stayed unchanged and the deficit remained the same as the last budget. The logical reason for this is that if the budget actually decreases and the deficit shrinks it will be withdrawing government money from the economy and an accompanying decrease in economic growth. The other option is to raise taxes, which again takes money out of the economy and has an even worse effect, because it likely will have a greater decrease in economic growth. This illustrates the trap that systemic debt and deficits exert on the political policy makers. No one wants economic pain, it is unpopular, but will happen, likely in an uncontrolled and far greater way.

The best solution would be an oval office address that would lay out the problem, the eventual result, and a systematic approach to a remedy, in effect, telling the country the truth about the serious problem that will soon end in a crisis. The fear most likely is that such a  address would cause a reaction, a decline in the stock market, and other possible negative consequences, so as in the past, hope will replace serious effort to deal with the growing problem. This coupled with the extreme political division will most likely be used as a weapon by the opposition.

I suspect that the hope is that tariffs, increased domestic economic activity,  a lowered dollar will increase government revenues and hopefully make at least a symbolic cut in the deficit. Even then, the debt will grow substantially, and the yield or the cost of interest to the government on financing the debt will also grow, most likely wiping out any savings. This is what happens in a debt spiral, especially when fewer want to hold government debt, so interest has to increase to attract buyers. At the same time the government crowds out business and other borrowers as all savings end up financing the government debt rather economic activity.

This whole thing is aggravated by political tensions around the world, with over half the world moving to an independent economic system that will most likely grow and place democratic socialist countries with large debt in a precarious and declining situation. Fewer countries buying their debt, increasing cost of financing debt and eventually outright default. The positive result of default is that they will will have trouble selling new debt for a few generations.

In the EU, which is in a more vulnerable situation, we see currency controls, the hope to eliminate cash, a Central bank digital currency and the mention of tapping into citizens, "excess savings", this is the quickest way to see people who actually have savings to start moving their money out and into other assets. This is why you see efforts to control cash transactions and withdrawals from personal accounts. This will end badly, so the government then thinks they will control and tax all economic activity, but they will in effect stop all that individual activity that is very important to any economy. It will result in a severe economic decline.

Much could be learned by an objective review of the consequences of central economic control as was the fate of the Soviet Union. It discourages all entrepreneurship and is wet blanket on economic activity. It end in disaster and immense economic pain.

At present it looks the EU  is going to go down the road of more government control in an effort to keep the debt, deficit spiral going, it will undoubtedly end in economic disaster or as historically has been the case looking to war to save them, an unlikely effort, when many no longer have a manufacturing base to be stimulated by war. Hopefully the U.S. can move in a better direction.

Are the Warmongers prevailing?

 IRRATIONAL  AND DELUSIONAL DECISIONS WILL END IN TRAGEDY

HUBRIS AND AN INABILITY TO ADMIT FAILURE

The winds of war are growing more intense and a single incident may now ignite at the least a European holocaust if not a global infernal. European leaders seem to be competing for who can be the most bellicose and threatening in their desire for war with Russia. Trump appears to be joining in one day and talking peace the next. Some actually want war, believing they can engage in a conflict with Russia and prevail without it escalating into a nuclear war. Some believe that no one will ever resort to nuclear weapons and that they can browbeat and intimidate Russia into submission. Both are delusional and are not rational thinkers. 

Putin is the most rational and objective leader today, if you consider the facts without emotion or prejudice. It is now mostly admitted by all that this conflict is a NATO/Russian conflict and Ukraine is just the vehicle to accomplish their goal of the subjugation, dismemberment of Russia and satisfying their lust for the resources of Russia. They are too proud and arrogant to admit that their plan is failing and as in past history they may take down much of civilization rather than admit their grave mistake.

The conflict on the ground is going increasingly poor for Ukraine, they cannot prevail against Russia. Western leaders are threatening to escalate with long range missiles manned by NATO personnel, targeted with US satellite information. It then becomes an open NATO war and Ukraine is just the piece of ground to conduct the war. Russia will not and can not back down for existential reasons, this is not a policy of Putin, but a Russian policy.  

Ukraine under CIA and MI6 direction is also engaging in assassinations and car bombings in Russia of both military and political leaders. There has not as yet been any retaliation for these increasing actions. Last weeks incident with Ukrainian drones and Putin's helicopter could have been the trigger for all-out retaliation, by others in the Russian government. If the day comes that Russia believes their country is in immediate existential danger, there is only 1 rational choice for response and it will not be submission.  

Once this conflict goes to the next level, there will not be any negotiations or any ability to stop the escalation, at present, it appears the apparent substance abusing leaders of the EU will continue on their path to destruction, unless someone intervenes to end this escalation. 

WW3 possibility increases, Trump role dead.

 BOXING EVERYONE IN FOR WAR

MUCH LIKE WW1, BUT U.S. MUST SAY NO

Fact, Ukraine cannot prevail over Russia in this conflict. Only NATO intervention can save Ukraine from defeat and defeat of Russia will end with nuclear war in Europe. While Trump has attempted to act as mediator and co combatant at the same time, it is not possible, without the U.S. getting out of this conflict. That means stopping support of this war now. Sadly the political and internal pressure is much like what happened in WW1, the pressure to save Europe for so called democracy will be enormous.

WW1 started by a series of  incidents and the result of alliances. Germany did not start WW1 but felt obligated by its treaties and alliances. The war was at a standstill and a end was in sight, until the U.S. came to the rescue of Europe and an armistice was declared. Then over a year later the sanctions and financial obligations laid on Germany was the cause of WW2. WW2 was an extension of WW1. The reality is many in Britain and France wanted to keep Germany down as a power in Europe and it was their opportunity. Today they want to keep Russia down, a third world country and access to its enormous resources. It appears that if they cannot do it economically it will be war and they again need the U.S. to be the power to make it happen. 

Zelensky is obligated first to the UK and France. He was not the candidate of the US, the U.S. backed Poroshenko, but Zelensky won by promising the Ukrainian people a peaceful settlement with Russia, then proceeded to commit to retaking Crimea and the breakaway oblasts by military force. Ukraine was backed by all of NATO and they have not prevailed. Now they have to negotiate a resolution or go to all out war. It appears that they are leaning for all out war, especially if the US commits to come to their rescue. Only a NO from the US can stop WW3.

The conflict has been a NATO/Russian war with Ukraine as the provider of bodies. Russia has viewed this as a civil war between brothers and has been restrained in its conduct of this war, contrary to the media narrative. An actual conflict with Germany and NATO will be another matter, it will be the worst bloodbath, likely worse than WW2 and most likely a nuclear exchange. The new leader in Germany seems to be ready to rekindle the WW2 hated for Russia and it is a mutual hatred that if awakened will be deadly. This will be the case with or without Putin, Putin may be the most pragmatic leader in Russia, any replacement will be pushed to be far more aggressive.

It is now a pivotal moment in history.  If the US agrees to be part of a war with Russia, it will be WW3.  Only the US. can avoid this war, by ending all support for the war now. Continuing this war will lead to the worst bloodbath in history.

Attempt on Putin? Massive escalation.

 THOUSANDS OF AIR ATTACKS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND RUSSIA

EU THREATENS LONG RANGE MISSILE OK

In the last week Ukraine has launched over 1000 drones towards Moscow. It is reported that on May 20th during Putin's unannounced visit to the Kursk region his helicopter was swarmed with a large flight of drones. It is also reported that this attack coincided with a increase in U.S. surveillance activity in Romania and over the Black sea. It seems this incident is being downplayed by most of the media, if mentioned at all.

It the last few days Russia has launched hundreds of drones and missiles toward Kiev and other Ukrainian cities. It appears that these have mostly targeted drone manufacturing and other military targets and some speculate that many have targeted NATO personnel in Ukraine. All these attacks by both sides result in debris from anti-aircraft missiles falling and injuring civilians in the area. 

What exactly is going on is unclear, but some conjecture that there is an effort to derail any decisions that would end U.S. support for this conflict or that it is all an effort to increase negotiation leverage. 

On the ground, the Russians are advancing everywhere and now also in northern Ukraine in Sumy and toward Kharkiv, It does not appear that Ukraine can slow or stop the Russian advances. The northern plan is to secure a security zone all across northern Ukraine to deter attacks with drones into Russia.

In Europe yesterday, Merz of Germany stated that Uk, France and Germany along with the U.S. is removing any limitations on long range missile use into Russia. This has not been verified by those countries and it is unclear if Merz is a spokesmen for these countries.

If long range missiles are fired into Russia there will be a serious retaliation and whether anyone wants to believe it, Russia still has been reserved in it spproch to this conflict. They have yet to take out all the rail and highway bridges over the Dnieper river or targeted government buildings in Kiev. They have not targeted government leaders in Ukraine. Further escalation will not change the outcome of this conflict, but will cause much more death and  destruction, furthur hobbling any future for Ukraine. 

Tax bill should stimulate domestic economy, but?

 WILL ECONOMIC BENEFITS INCREASE REVENUES?

DOES NOT REDUCE DEFICIT OR DEBT

The 2026 budget has passed the House and it is likely to pass the Senate, but we can expect modifications. It appears that this bill will have a positive effect on the domestic economy, but does not address the biggest threat to the country, the unsustainable deficit and debt.

There have been numerous cuts in discretionary spending totaling over $160 billion, most of this is grants, surveys, and nonessential spending, but will have an effect on someones present occupation.

We see that the elimination of income tax on tips will be a positive for the restaurant business as it may help to incentivise more people to take those jobs, many have been struggling to have enough personnel. This tax has always been unenforceable and favored restaurants with cash over credit card payments. I suspect that social security and medicare tax will remain. We can expect similar treatment to the elimination of tax on overtime. I guess this is a little justice for those who work 60 hours as opposed to those who work 40 hours a week.

Deductible interest on domestic car loans may help the domestic car business.

There really is not a cut in taxes, just the making of the 2017 tax cuts permanent. These taxes going up, would have been a negative for the economy.

The new incentives and reforms are looking positive except for 1 thing, it does not address the debt and the now permanent deficit spending. This will add to inflation, the cost of the interest on the debt and the possibility of a debt crisis spiral.

With the cuts to the spending they could have sent a message to the world that they were serious about addressing the fiscal mismanagement, but instead they moved the savings to the bloated defense budget. A budget that has never been audited and appears to be giant slush fund for contractors and political donations. I suspect that it's just another threatening message to foreign opponents that we are preparing for war. A better message would have been that we are making the necessary reforms to make the dollar and America a strong nation from within.

I doubt that any Senators will dare to question the defense budget, but will succumb to the narrative that Russia and China are a threat to our survival, when it is they, who through their irresponsibility, is the biggest threat to the nation.

There will not be a ceasefire in Ukraine.

 CEASEFIRE ONLY AFTER PEACE AGREEMENT

ONLY CAPITULATION WILL END THIS CONFLICT

Much was made about a 2 hour phone call between Putin and Trump, but nothing new has been revealed. Russia's terms for ending this are the same as they were in 2022 before the beginning of the conflict. They are they same as they were in 2022 in negotiations in Turkey. The reality is Ukraine in NATO is considered an existential threat to their security and they are willing to continue until some sort of lasting agreement is concluded.

We still here about 30 day ceasefires and western troops in western Ukraine, just NATO expansion by another name, Russia will not consider either.

Somehow the west still believes that Russia will become tired or exhausted and give up and allow a frozen conflict or some other indecisive end to this conflict. It will not happen. While Russia is willing to talk about possibilities and possible trade agreements in the future, they will not back down from their goals in Ukraine. It seems that Trump believes that a relief of sanctions and the carrot of trade with the U.S. will be an incentive to compromise, it is not going to happen. 

Russia has already made the decision that they are on the road to a permanent divorce from economic and political ties to the west. They are looking to the rest of the world for their future business and cooperation. All they want from the west is a security zone to their west and that is Ukraine.

The nonsense that Russia has eyes on Poland or the Baltic states is just nonsense, Russia needs nothing from the west and attempting to be concerned about Russia occupying anything other than a security zone is just foolish talk.

The EU and NATO still want to expand into Romania and Moldova and are still hoping to defeat Russia, yet we see no conscription or serious preparations, still hoping to rope the U.S. into getting involved in a war with Russia. 

This conflict could end very quickly, if the west and Ukraine come to the conclusion that Ukraine will be a neutral country maybe even a member of the EU, but never a member of NATO and no western troops or bases in Ukraine. Until that happens, Ukraine will continue to become smaller, bit by bit, and only when the west decides to give up on NATO expansion will the dying and destruction end.

Ukraine, testing ground for evolution of drone warfare.

 DRONES NOW ACCOUNTING FOR MOST CASUALTIES

DRONES HAVE ALLOWED UKRAINE TO HANG ON

The Ukraine war has become the testing ground for the use of Drones in warfare. Ukraine was the first to extensively use improvised drones to use as surveillance and then to carry small bombs. Russia while having drones, they were behind in this technology, but have now become very sophisticated in the manufacture and use of drones. In fact, both countries have most likely surpassed the western countries in done tactics and manufacturing.

Today drones have surpassed artillery as the leading cause of casualties in this conflict.

Besides drone manufacturing and tactics the evolution of electronic  countermeasures and other sophisticated approaches for defense from drones is evolving.

Ukraine began with improvising cheap Chinese drones to carry small munitions often rigged together in basements and on the fly. They have learned and become much more sophisticated as they adapted to the countermeasures  introduced by Russia. Both countries are using common electronic components supplied from China. Ukraine is dependent on Starlink and Russia has their own independent satellite system.

Russia began by using Iranian drones and some of their own creations, but now may be the leader in these small battlefield drones, produced cheaply and in massive numbers. A $1000 drone can disable a $4 million fighting vehicle or a $20 million tank. Then leaving them vulnerable to artillery fire. 

Now drones can be placed in enemy territory and just lay there until needed, then activated, or they are being manufactured to be able to communicate with other drones and all converge on a target. Soon drones may be able to become autonomous and no longer need to be controlled from some other location which makes them vulnerable to electronic countermeasures.

Today, many of these drones are controlled from locations deep inside Russia by former gamers and non military personnel, a practice that the U.S. has been using for years with larger very expensive drones, which are mostly controlled from bases in the U.S.

There is no other testing method than can offer the experience gained in real battlefield conditions. This war between two sophisticated peer equipped militaries, Ukraine with all the best of NATO and Russia, have had the ultimate proving grounds for drone warfare.

Birthright citizenship, deserves another look.

 GRANTED CITIZENSHIP TO FORMER SLAVES

PRESENT UNDERSTANDING RIFE WITH ABUSE

The Supreme court is going to review the present understanding of birthright citizenship, it is really way past time. The 14th. amendment was proposed in 1866, 1 year after the end of the civil war, it was ratified in 1868. This amendment was proposed to stop abuse by some states that denied citizenship to some former slaves or questioned their citizenship. It was primarily an amendment that gave full citizenship to all former slaves and those who were born to former slaves.

Today we see lots of abuse in the interpretation of this law, in reality many pregnant women migrate to the United States with the purpose of their newborns to be become instant citizens, then opening the door for other family members. This was never the purpose of the law. In 1868 the country did not have a socialist welfare system. There was little advantage to U.S. citizenship except for the opportunity to have a better life. That has all changed, the immediate financial benefits to being a citizen are enormous and has advantages for anyone who is related to this new citizen.

I do not believe any other country on earth has this interpretation of birthright citizenship. The clause that makes a new interpretation possible is, "subject to the jurisdiction", indicating that those in question parents are legal residents, not persons who have entered the country illegally.

It is very possible that after referring to the arguments made about this amendment when enacted, they will find that this should not apply to the children of illegal immigrants. It would be expected that all those who have received citizenship in the past would be exempt from a new interpretation, but it would clarify the original intent of the amendment in the future.

U.S. debt downgraded.

 U.S. LOSES AAA RATING

INTEREST RATES TO RISE

On Friday Moody's rating agency dropped the AAA rating of U.S. debt. It was the fourth and final rating agency to lower the credit worthiness of U.S. debt. The first was in 2011. This will result in a lowering of U.S. treasury prices and a rise in interest rates. It will also add to the cost to service the massive U.S. debt and add to the deficit. It has the risk of setting off a debt crisis spiral with further downgrades and increased cost of servicing the debt.

The proposed budget for the next year, estimated at $6.8 trillion, did cut $163 Billion in discretionary spending, but added most of that to the proposed defense spending budget of $1.1 trillion. The 2026 budget is expected to remain flat with a deficit of $1.7 Trillion. That translates to 25% of the budget in added debt. The proposals are too little too late to remedy the future of the dollar and the ability of the U.S. to sustain its spending and servicing its debt.

The big blowout this year is the huge increase in defense spending, dwarfing the defense spending of the combined spending of all industrial countries. China spent $314 Billion in 2024 and Russia $149 billion in 2024. While it may be more for 2026 it is no where near the budget of the U.S.. Many expected an audit of the U.S. defense industry, but it looks like it is not going to happen. Just another $150 billion in spending with no accountability. A unsustainable policy that may be the biggest threat to the United States. Our fiscal irresponsibility is a greater threat to this country than Russia and China.

The budgets of both China and Russia would most likely be lower if not for the threats and trash talking engaged in by US. administrations for decades. 

The U.S has 750 bases in over 100 counties, the Russians and Chinese maybe a dozen. Much of this defense spending is paid to foreign countries in the maintenance of these bases and bribes paid to keep them there. Military personnel numbers are the lowest in modern history. U.S. military numbers haves declined 36% since 1980. 

How is it that Russia has been able to produce munitions above the levels of the combined levels of the U.S. and NATO with a budget of near $150 billion. How is it that no one in congress or the media has yet to ask that question?

I suspect that the dependence on U.S. government spending by a an ever increasing number of Americans will not be remedied, but will only be addressed when it all collapses. Congress needs to become responsible, not enablers of this addiction to government spending.

Ukraine and EU still not serious about peace talks.

 CEASEFIRE, JUST PLAY TO CONTINUE WAR

 NO CEASEFIRE, UNTIL PEACE IS IN SIGHT

The media today all had the same headline, Putin did not show for talks in Turkey. There was never a possibility that Putin would go to Turkey to talk to Zelensky. It is unlikely that Putin will ever engage in talks with Zelensky. These types of negotiations will not involve the major leaders until all the details have been concluded, which is not on the horizon.

The reality is, that Ukraine does not want to end the war, until it is in a favorable position, it did not happen with the much touted counter offensive or the incursion into the Kursk region and is evaporating by the day. The EU leaders and Zelensky want a 30 day ceasefire to reposition, rearm and fight some more, there is no incentive for Russia to engage in a ceasefire.

Watching Macron, Starmer and Zelensky in last weekend's coke fueled euphoric conclusion that ended with a demand for 30 day ceasefire was just another delusional attempt to find some way to continue this war. In the next few days it is likely that much of the world will see the sham that is underway. We can expect that the media will continue to try to spin some positive view of the whole thing.

While all this is going on, the delusional leaders of the EU are hoping that Ukraine can keep fighting until Russia is exhausted, then they will bring their envisioned new army to conclude the defeat of Russia. It is yet to be concluded, who will be exhausted first, the EU or Russia. 

New leadership is needed in the EU before any real peace deal can be accomplished in Ukraine, they are surely willing to fight to the last Ukrainian and keep engaging in delusional strategies, hoping for some miracle. Their citizens should be demanding mandatory drug testing for all of them.

Trump makes progress to coexistence.

 POSITIVE PROGRESS UKRAINE, IRAN, CHINA 

MIDEAST TOUR AND NORMALIZATION WITH SYRIA

This week has resulted in positive results on many fronts. Direct talks in Turkey between representatives of Ukraine and Russia, a possible step in the right direction. We can expect this to be a lengthy negotiation, but at least there is hope of ending this conflict within the year. The conflict is almost determined, but the details will be important for future peace in the region.

Progress on a trade deal with China, undoubtedly the toughest nut to crack in Trumps tariff negotiations. Also a warming of the political narrative in an effort to avoid confrontation with China.

It is way past time to demand an end to the trash talking by politicians and some members of the administration, this applies to every conflict, it is not productive and is in fact just juvenile behavior.

Trump's business dealings with the gulf countries is very important in establishing a framework for cooperation with the coming bipolar economic situation. A alternative economic system is going to happen, it does not have to be exclusive situation for either group, but can be a cooperative, respectful and continued economic interaction situation. There can be mutual prosperity without any side dominating.

A warming of relations with Russia and China will have a positive influence on negotiations with Iran. No one will gain with a war with Iran, it is in the worlds best interest if some sort of normalization with Iran can be made. Iran has the opportunity to move into a better place in the world political system, a certain amount of trust needs to acquired by all those involved. Iran has an opportunity for a prosperous future, hopefully they take that opportunity.

A step to normalize relations with Syria and hopefully bring some peace to this devastated country.  It is in the best interest for everyone in the region to have a prosperous and safe Syria for the population. It is just a hopeful beginning, but it will take some time to see if this can be accomplished.

This week we did see a step back from a possible WW3, just a step, but we can hope it will continue.

Paying for access to the biggest consumer market.

 MOST MARKET ACCESS IS NOT FREE

MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE MUST BE PAID FOR BY SOMEONE

It is a fact that every time sellers and buyers are offered a forum to conduct business there are costs, usually to the seller, to pay for the infrastructure. This applies to shows and markets where buyers and sellers meet to conduct business.

Another fact is that grocery stores often charge sellers shelf space that is often in the 100's of thousands of dollars per year. These cost help to defray their overhead in providing a place where buyers can easily find the products offered by sellers.

On a national level, the United States is, without a doubt, the largest consumer market in the world. If you have things to sell, this is the market you want to access. Should this market be free to anyone who wants sell their products here?  The reality is this market it supported by a massive infrastructure that is primarily paid for by U.S. taxpayers. 

Domestic sellers help pay for this infrastructure through taxes, fees, permits and other costs. Should foreign sellers assume some of the cost associated with the maintaining of the infrastructure for this massive market?

This infrastructure includes roads, railways and airports all used for the importation of goods to be sold in the USA.

So, how can Americans recoup some of these costs from foreign competitors who have enjoyed access to this lucrative market.

Direct annual payments from sellers to the U.S. would be the fairest possibility. maybe a percentage of their sales. Or maybe their government should assume costs in some way. The other option is a tariff on all goods entering the country.

At present, Trump has placed a 10% tariff on all goods entering the country. It appears this tariff is going to remain, all the other tariffs are negotiating incentives that are expected to be temporary until satisfactory agreements are concluded.

The tariff, while a good idea, maybe not the best solution because everyone will pay for this except domestic manufacturers. This gives the domestic manufactures at least a little repayment for all the costs they have with maintaining this infrastructure. 

The point is, trade is not free, it has lots of associated costs that need to be paid by someone. All partners need to help pay for the costs of this market.

The Secession threat in Canada is real.

 ALBERTA IS LEADING THE DISILLUSIONED

POLLING SHOWS BIGGER PROBLEM THAN JUST ALBERTA

On May 5, the Premiere of Alberta Canada, Danielle Smith,  gave a speech to fellow Albertans and to the leadership in Canada laying out the plans for Albert's future.

According to Smith, Alberta is forming a committee to meet with the leadership in Ottawa to lay out their demands for resolution of grievances that have been festering for at least the last 10 years. Then in the next year the results of these negotiations will be put to referendum to the people of Alberta and included in that referendum will be a vote on whether to have a vote on Secession. 

Smith made it clear that she hopes that the concerns of Albertans will be taken seriously by the leadership in Ottawa. Smith claims the western regions of Canada are the main income producing parts of Canada, and in effect they are subsidizing the eastern part of the country. The other issue is that the policies that have been coming out of Ottawa do not recognize or take into account the concerns of Albertans. These policies have hampered and obstructed Albertans in their economic pursuits and Ottawa seems to have a low opinion of the working people of Alberta. 

The speech made it clear that this is a serious concern and in the end the people of Alberta will be voting on their future by 2026.

Canada is a resource country, one of the largest in the world, most of its GDP come from resources and it seems the eastern elite would, in effect, like to end that as it seems to be below their idea of how life should be conducted.

Polling shows that Alberta is not alone, the citizens of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and northern British Columbia have very similar opinions. It is likely that if Alberta goes down this path, more will follow very quickly. 

Western Canadians are conservative and all very independent, a secession from Canada would most likely be a vote for independence, I would expect they would not be interested in exchanging masters in Ottawa for masters in Washington.

It seems much will depend on the ability of the new government to appease the western Canadians or will they double down and insist on obedience. It does appear that pivotal diplomatic decisions on the future of Canada are going to have to be made.

EU demands immediate ceasefire OR?

 SANCTION EXPANSION TO MORE COUNTRIES

DESPERATION LEADS TO DUMB TALK

This weekend, Zelensky, Starmer, Macron and several others had a meeting and decided that they needed to demand that Russia engage in a 30 day unconditional ceasefire. Their threat, if not accepted, is that they will impose crushing sanctions on Russia. I am amazed that they have any more sanctions to impose on Russia. I suspect they are now considering placing sanctions on China, India or any other country that is trading with Russia. It will have the same effect as former sanctions, further destruction of their own economies with no result to end the conflict in Ukraine.

Russia's response was that they are willing to engage in direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul. It is no secret as to their position, it is the same as it was before the conflict began, only that everyday Ukraine loses more ground that Russia does not desire to return. 

Zelensky then made his demand to have face to face negotiations with Putin, another non starter. I suspect that Putin will never engage in talks with Zelensky, who Russia believes is an illegitimate leader since his term expired a year ago. If talks happen, it will be the usual lower level negotiators. I am doubtful that talks will happen as Zelensky and his allies in the EU are not ready to admit defeat. 

An unconditional 30 day ceasefire is an obvious attempt to allow Ukraine to reorganize and refresh it supplies and manpower to fight some more. Without serious offers to end the conflict, Russia will not enter into such a ceasefire, even if there should be negotiations.

As for Trump bringing an end to this conflict, it is clear that no American president can act as a co-combatant and a mediator at the same time. While Erdogan of Turkey is a notorious double dealer, he is the closest thing to a non partisan actor in the region.

At one time there were neutral player in Europe, but that is now past, there is no one that can act as a mediator, who has not taken sides.

It should be expected that this conflict will continue for some time, until someone,  probably Ukraine, is in a position similar to WW2 Germany or Japan. It is likely the only solution that can end in lasting peace.

Who won WW2 and who was the winner?

 POLITICAL NARRATIVE CAUSES DIVISION, EVEN ABOUT WW2

WHILE SOME REMEMBER VICTORY, OTHERS HATE CONTINUES

President Trump created controversy when he stated that the U.S. won WW2, he did add that the U.S. manufacturing capacity was a big part of that victory. The reality is that it was a joint victory and with any one part being absent the outcome could have been different.

The battle of Britain, primarily an air war, was instrumental in maintaining a base for the distribution of supplies from America to the allies.

The United States was indeed the "Arsenal of Democracy" and without that aid, particularly early in the war, the Germans massive and most productive industry in Europe would have been hard to beat. Eventually Britain was able to produce large amounts of aircraft and the Russians industry produced massive amounts of tanks and equipment.

As for the actual fighting and dying, the Soviet Union accounted for 80% of the german military deaths, estimated at 5 million, while losing a combined 26 million military and civilian deaths. 10 Million military and the rest from bombing, starvation and disease deaths. The German deaths on the western front were estimated at around 600,000 military and near 500,000 civilian casualties from bombing. Uk deaths 385,000, U.S, deaths in Europe 250,000. Polish deaths over 5 million. The facts don't lie, without the fact that the majority of war was fought on the eastern front and in effect that fighting crippled the German military machine, which allowed the western allies to build and prepare for the retaking of western Europe. I would wager that if there was no eastern front, there would not have been a D-day.

Yesterday we saw Russia celebrate in Moscow the 80th anniversary of the end of WW2. Many in the west opposed the celebration, even boycotted and forbid the mention of Russia in western countries, a sad display indeed. If not for the Russian effort they would all be speaking German.

The west still cannot understand the concern of Russia for its security on its western border. Some may call it paranoia, but it has experienced a history of western invasion, by France under Napoleon, The British in Crimea, the basis for the famous "Charge of the Light Brigade" and then the devastating damage from the Germans. These invasion are etched deeply on the combined memory of Russians.

You can decide who won the war, but the big winner from the war was the United States. Most of the world was devastated, it industrial capacity destroyed and only the U.S. stood untouched with a massive industrial capacity and its Gold Reserves swelling by 400 % from the payments from lend lease transactions with the allies.

It took at east 20 years for Japan, Germany and even Britain to recover. That was helped by U.S. aid in investment and protection, enabling that recovery.

Most of present day Americans have benefited from the U.S. standing in the world and the U.S. has thrived for most of the 20th century. The reality is that the U.S. has squandered its good reputation and its industry and it financial power with mismanagement and hubris and a lack of moral standing in its relations with much of the world in the last 30 years. 

The first step in regaining that standing is admitting its failures and its errors, without that recognition it will continue to have far greater problems in the future.

Houthi/U.S. Ceasefire?

 U.S. TO STOP BOMBING, HOUTHI TO STOP TARGETING U.S. SHIPS

NO MENTION OF HOUTHI ATTACKS ON ISRAEL

President Trump announced yesterday that the Houthis' and the U.S. have mediated a deal through Oman to end hostilities between the two countries. Goal seems to be to facilitate shipping through Suez canal. 

Before the U.S. intervention the Houthis were targeting ships destined for Israel, after the intervention no shipping was going through the Suez canal. 60 % of this traffic is headed for the Europe and one can expect they were also pressuring for an end to this conflict.

Of course, it is likely that both have incentives to abide by this agreement. The Houthis' were suffering damage to infrastructure and death to its citizens. The U.S. involvement was costing billions in limited ordinance that is in big demand and also needed for U.S. security. A continued conflict raised the possibility of eventually costing the U.S. the loss of a valuable ship and many lives. There is a growing reality that in today's use of modern missiles and drones, sea power is much more vulnerable than in the past.

This experiment was a learning experience to the U.S. that it is not as easy as in the past to project power through sea power. The Houthi seem to have developed a sophisticated missile program, what kind of problems would sea power have against a peer opponent? 

It seems there was no mention of Houthi attacks on Israel, It seems that Israel will now have to deal with this situation on their own. In fact they immediately conducted an attack on Yemen's airports in response to Houthi attacks on Israeli airports. Maybe they will now have to negotiate their own ceasefire.

Trump ends funding for "Gain of function" research overseas.

 U.S. RESEARCH UNDER REVIEW

IS THE U.S. THE LEADER IN THIS RESEARCH?

It is reported that President Trump has issued an executive order ending funding for "Gain of Function" research overseas. This research is an endeavor to aid in the ability of animal viruses to be able to infect humans. So far, I have yet to hear a reasonable excuse for the reason for this research.

President Obama made a similar effort to ban research in the United States, then the National Institute of Health funded the research in Wuhan, China, were it is  suspected that the Covid-19 virus leaked from the lab. Again, no one is willing to answer the big question, WHY is this research being conducted.

In the last year, a University in Boston made the statement that they had been successful in creating a much more deadly and more infectious strain of Covid virus, no explanation as to value of this research.

We also learned that the U.S. has operated dozens of Virus and communicable disease labs in Ukraine, near the Russian border. Again, never a real explanation as to what they are doing.

One must wonder if this country is still engaging in dangerous biological warfare or population control research?

While Trump's order bans funding for overseas labs, it does not ban funding for domestic research, but does put it under review, hopefully we will get some explanation of the purpose of this research.

I would hope that not only funding is ended but the research should be banned worldwide, it does not appear to have any positive impact on the human race, only the increased chance of another leak or possibly intended use of these agents for negative consequences for humanity.

The present money system is unsustainable.

 THE WORLD IS AWASH IN DEBT

FIAT CURRENCY ALWAYS ENDS IN DISASTER

It seems everyone and every country is in ever increasing debt. The United States, while not he worst offender, leads the world in overall debt. The total private and public debt has increased from $28.6 Trillion in 2000 to $93.5 Trillion in 2022. What has allowed the United States the ability to amass this debt is the fact the Dollar is the world's reserve currency. This situation was enabled by the Bretton Woods conference in 1944. At that time the dollar was considered, "as good as Gold" and was backed by actual silver and gold reserves. That came to an end in 1971 when the U.S. ended the gold backing. $1 dollar in 1971 is equivalent to $7.90 today an inflation rate of 689%.

There is no currency in the world today that is backed by anything of real value, this allows governments to produce as much currency as it feels it needs without any limit. 100 years ago, all currencies were backed by some amount of silver and gold. This present situation robs savers of their labor and encourages everyone to spend their earnings, rather than face higher prices in the future. Many today do not have any substantial savings, but large amounts of debt. The situation today is far worse than in 2008 when the last debt bust was encountered. In fact, the situation was prolonged by encouraging more debt both public and private to keep things going.

One of the problems is the systematic failure of Democratic Socialism to engage in responsible fiscal policy. Promises of more benefits, in exchange for votes has become the norm,  not only from the private sector, but defense contractors and others who have their hopes on government expenditures. There is an endless line of lobbyists with their hand out for some sort of government funding. It is unsustainable and no one has the fortitude to tackle this impending crisis.

The Bond market it he biggest market in the world, not energy or food or all commodities combined. The buying and selling of government and corporate debt is by far the biggest enterprise in the world. That alone should tell us that something is wrong with the present situation. The trading of worthless paper with the hope of repayment is were much of commerce exists today.

It can and will most likely all implode in the very near future. In the U.S. the interest on this debt will soon be the government's biggest expenditure. This coupled with much of the world organizing a separate system, not dependent on the dollar, because of this irresponsible behaviour, will be the downfall of the present system that cannot be sustained.

The real answer is a return to currency being redeemable in something of real value, this limits the ability of nations to engage in deficit spending, stops inflation and encourages saving.  Anyone who suggest asset backed currency is accused of retuning to this archaic system of the past and that it would be impossible. It is difficult and painful, but not impossible.

The alterative that is going to be offered is a Central bank digital currency, something without any real value, just a computer entry. The dream of all authoritarian governments, that can monitor, tax, confiscate and control all financial transactions.The end of all liberty, and the ability to resist oppression.

I suspect somewhere in the near future this idea will be attempted to be sold, as the answer to the coming crisis. 

Only changes of EU leadership can bring peace in Ukraine.

 THEY ARE ALL ON THE WAY OUT

NEW THINKING AND NEW APPROACH NEEDED

This weekend we see that the anti-war candidate has won convincingly in Romania. This after the EU voided the last election after the winner won 23% of the vote, the replacement candidate has won 40% of the vote. Romanian voters are beginning to understand that they do not want to become pawns in the west's war with Russia. 

In the UK, we see the reform candidates won a large number of seats and that the present 2 party system is declining in appeal, no wonder, when no matter who is in power the policy stays the same. Will they soon be locking up the leadership of the reform party?

France is on its way to outright civil war after removing Le Pen from the ability to run for election and now Germany wants to outlaw the leading opposition party AFD.

The smell of desperation is getting more intense with every damaging exertion of raw political power. Democracy is just a pleasant phrase, but not a reality.

Trump's window is closing on his ability to change U.S. policy that was at the root of the Ukraine war. He has some credibility since he is a new face, but the forces within are continuing to hamper any changes in U.S. foreign policy. Changes that are needed, if the U.S. is going to partake in the evolving global economic order.

Much is made of liberal globalist candidates winning in Canada and Australia, not surprising, they are still basically part of the British Commonwealth or Empire and have not realized their path is destined to fail.

The existing forces may prevail and control the western policies, but they will end in failure, they no longer have the industrial, economic or military power to control the world. If they continue to the point of failure, the future of the west will be far poorer without a recognition of a need for coexistence and cooperation.

Waltz, Kellogg, Ukraine mineral deal.

 WALTZ OUT, NO TO ATTACK ON IRAN

UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL, MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING

Yesterday we hear that Mike Waltz, national security director was moved to Ambassador to the UN. It was no surprise, this was baked in after Waltz caused a big stir by having a reporter on his email chat. He and his associate are both out as of yesterday. Marco Rubio is going to temporarily take over his duties. One must believe this move is a silent NO, to attacking or supporting attacks on Iran. This move and the placing of more sanctions on Iran give more credence to the fact that Trump does not want to start a war with Iran and for good reason.

One must expect there will be other changes coming, one is Keith Kellogg who is supposed to be the Ukraine envoy, but seems to spending his time in Europe talking to the EU representatives and Ukraine with deals that are never going to be acceptable to Russia. This position is irrelevant, unless he is just to keep the Europeans hoping on a settlement that will insure their economic interests in Ukraine.

Then there is the much touted Ukraine mineral deal that both sides seem to have differing opinions what it means. Hopefully it will be more clear when it is made public.

Most of the areas were there are minerals are now under Russian control and it is very unlikely that situation will change. Trump considers this as a payment for past support, Ukraine that it insures future support. The reality is that it just looks like some sort of insurance to contest the UK's 100 year deal on the same minerals. It may also just be an attempt to show that some progress is being made, when in fact little is happening other than Russia continuing to move the conflict line steadily to the west.

The real situation is that there will not be a Ceasefire and that the motto,"As long as it takes" may eventually apply more to Russia than the west.

Israel/ Iran asymmetric war?

 WAR, ONE WAY OR ANOTHER

IS MAJOR CONFRONTATION UNAVOIDABLE?

In the last week we have seen 2 major explosions in Iran, both having to do with military supplies. Iran was quick to describe these incidents as accidental, but many are speculating that is just some covert actions by Israel.

Now we see major fires all around Jerusalem and one must wonder if this is a retaliation for the incidents in Iran.

The reality is that Israel does desire a major confrontation with Iran, but only if it is backed up by the United States. One must wonder if Israel is hoping for a response from Iran that will give Israel an excuse to attack Iran. 

Provocations from Israel like the assassination in Tehran of a Hamas leader on inauguration day in Iran, that Iran let go without a response, lead some to speculate that Iran is weak and afraid to respond to Israel. Others have a different opinion and believe that Iran is not going to take the bait and attack Israel, because it is indeed well prepared and feels time is on it side.

Iran is well connected with Russia and China as a pivotal part of the BRICS economic group, because of its geographic location for trade between the major BRICS countries. We can expect that there is communication and council that time is on the side of Iran. 

Israel has squandered its opportunity for global sympathy and support by its response to the Hamas attack near 2 years ago, It is still engaged in military action, serious domestic division, a floundering economy and a decline in population as this crisis continues. One may say that Israel took, the soon irrelevant, Hamas bait and is now in a unsustainable situation. Iran will evade a conflict with the U.S.and Israel as long as possible. Will Israel have to be blatant in its attacks to get a response and are they sure that Iran does not have the capability to do severe damage to their country?

It seems that Israel may feel that only war with Iran will end this situation. There doesn't seem to be any peaceful resolution possible and sadly military action will unlikely change the situation in the long run. It is the classic dilemma that leads to major war, a war with no winners in the end.

What is your share of the national debt?

 WILL THE DEBT TRANSLATE INTO POORER AMERICANS?

WE ARE GOING TO REALIZE THAT THE DEBT IS NOT MEANINGLESS

For decades many have been warning of the dangers of the growing national debt. We have heard from many that we owe it to ourselves or that it is just a number without any relevance. The only real consequence has been the depreciating buying power of the dollar, indicated by continuous rising prices.

It seems the consequences of the debt are now becoming relevant in that some kind of adjustment is going to be made to either eliminate this debt, mandate a balanced budget or some other real dealing with this debt. Every real policy to control or eliminate this debt is going to be financially painful for everyone.

It is estimated that every man, women and child 's share of the debt is over $106,000. Every households share is $273,567. Of course, probably at least half the households in America do not have a positive net worth, so the share would fall on those who do have a positive net worth, which could translate into twice that number.

Of course, we are not going to correct this situation by directly having Americans kick in their share of the debt, but we can expect that it is going to cost us all, in one way or another. 

To default on the debt would be a decrease in the investment value that is tied to pensions, 401Ks and bank accounts of all Americans who have any savings or investments. While a direct default is unlikely, some sort of measures are going to be taken to deal with this debt in the very near future.

The ability of the federal government to engage in deficit spending is coming to an end and that alone will translate into less money flowing from government to individuals. That would be a fix on the growing of the debt.

Then there is matter of servicing the existing debt, the interest is going to become the biggest budget item in the near future. That is going to require more creative management, like devaluing the dollar, which will make all dollar holders poorer, but increase the ability of the government to pay off debt. 

This could be done by revaluing the dollar at some extreme dollar to gold ratio, like $40,000 an ounce, then the debt could be paid off with gold. It would be actually an accounting gimmick, but it would wipe out the debt and no one would have much recourse but to take the payoff and assume the loss of purchasing power of their investment. It would result in the inability of the government to sell more debt, which may be a good thing. The government would be required to act in financially sound way in the future. It would sort of be a national bankruptcy that would pay off the creditors with devalued dollars, actually at least fair to all in the return on investment would be equal, but less value.

It will most likely be a combination of all these ideas and more, but the result will be an end to the deficit spending inflationary cycle and will result in most Americans becoming poorer, but possibly with a more stable economic future and the avoidance of an overall economic collapse.

100 days of Trump.

 THINGS WILL NEVER BE THE SAME

THE INEVITABLE IS BEING ACCELERATED

I am sure there will be many opinions about the first 100 days of the new Trump administration. The Trump haters are still hating and will pile on with every possible catastrophic result of Trump's politics. While 100 days may have been very important in the past, I suspect we will all have to wait a little longer to judge the results of many of these novel policies.

What is coming in the next 4 years is going to be momentous history making period for the world with or without Trump. It is the end of an era, and what comes next will be either managed or we will be the victim of the changes. One good thing about Trump is that he is able change directions, and in an era that has no guidelines, some things may have to go to option B or C or whatever will work the best. The reality is that we need to be hopeful that we end on our feet with the least bad result.

So, First, Trump, as he promised, did focus on regulating the border and deporting criminal elements that are in the country illegally. While deporting them all will take time, it does appear that the border is now much tighter than in the past.

Trump's attempt to end the war in Ukraine, while there are discussion that did not happen in the past 3 years, no solution has been accepted by those involved. If you face the positions of Russia, compared to Europe and Ukraine, only military defeat will end this conflict. Of course, it will all end in negotiations, but not until defeat is staring someone in the face. Trump is best to end U.S. military involvement, it can not have any positive result for the U.S. 

Same goes for the Iran/Israel situation, Many realize that a U.S. assisted attack on Iran will be the end of Trump's presidency and some believe that is preferable to any negotiated peace with Iran. Iran does not have nuclear weapons and it seems that they can defend their country very well with conventional weapons, a reality that many want to dismiss. War with Iran will usher in a global economic crises and may be so devastating to Israel that they will consider using nuclear weapons.

Tariffs, Trump said he was going to use tariff's to bring about balance in trade. The long term result is till out, but it looks like it will be a very painful result one way or another. Would a one by one negotiation have been better, maybe, but this approach has indeed captured everyone's attention. I suspect we will know if this is working in the next 100 days.

The biggest threat to the future of the United States seems to be not the focus of much of the country and that is the debt bomb, ready to explode at any moment. The dollar reserve currency status is ending, with the need for major financial, budgetary restraint by the U.S.. The period of overspending, overbuying and under producing resulting in massive debt is coming to an end. This would be happening, no matter who would be running the country and can no longer be kicked down the road.

The world is awash in crisis, It would be best if the country was united in admitting its failures of foreign policy, fiscal irresponsibility and work to manage the severe changes coming. These changes are coming and will be very painful. Buckle up, and don't make the mistake of partisan politics and believe these problems are the result of Trump. We all better hope that we can get the best result in a difficult no win situation.