No secret as to how to end Ukraine conflict.

 RUSSIA'S OBJECTIVES ARE CLEAR AND UNCHANGED

EVERY DAY UKRAINE'S FUTURE BECOMES DIMMER

We continually hear that Trump and others are disappointed that Putin does not agree to a ceasefire or is willing to end the conflict in Ukraine. It seems they are mystified as to what it will take to end this conflict. The reality is that they still believe they can prevail in this conflict even though Ukraine is destined to become a shadow of a country that it could have been without this conflict.

Russia's objectives are as clear today as they were in the months leading up to conflict, no NATO in Ukraine on its eastern border, no NATO troops in Ukraine, human rights guarantees for the Russian population and Ukraine a neutral, not militarily aligned country.. An agreement on those issues could have preserved Ukraine's territorial boundaries, with the exception of Crimea, 3 years ago. No one has yet to agree to those objectives, not Ukraine, not NATO and not the U.S. 

Trump and other have acknowledged that NATO membership could be negotiated, understanding that the U.S. would never allow a foreign military alignment in Canada or Mexico. Most American's are not that objective and their answer has been consistently, FU, Russia cannot make such demands. 

So the fighting goes on, Russia in the beginning, was disorganized and not very effective, they hoped that a show of force would convince Ukraine to accept its proposals and within weeks it appeared that a settlement had been reached, but Boris Johnson, we can assume, representing NATO convinced Ukraine to hold firm. Russia then retreated from areas that it felt it could not at that time defend and the rest is history. They have since increased their military, expanded production and are now a well honed fighting machine, far more formidable than when this began.

Russia, rather than invade deep into Ukraine have been able to keep the fighting close to their border. While many claim this is an indication of weakness, it is part of a strategy to decimate Ukraines fighting force and also force a long logistic route for Ukraine and for a possible NATO force. Russia would like to fight this battle on the eastern part of Ukraine, which was to their advantage in all previous wars in their history. 

This war could be ended quickly, if Russia's demands are agreed to, at present that is not the case. Trump's negotiations are dead after the using of negotiations as a cover for the drone attack on their strategic bombers. Russia is not going to agree to a situation with NATO troops in western Ukraine, with a ceasefire, that allow Ukraine to rearm and reorganize. At present it looks like this war will continue until Ukraine is totally exhausted and begs for mercy.

While the Europeans and Lindsey Graham threaten and dream of a massive European army, they do not have the internal will or resources to accomplish any of this. Trump does not support U.S. direct involvement with war with Russia. Proposed sanctions on China, India and Brazil and others will no doubt damage the U.S. and Europe more than Russia. These countries can not submit to such intimidation from the U.S. 

In the meantime, Ukraine is suffering terribly and is becoming smaller. It is likely to eventually lose Odessa, which will make Ukraine a dependent and third world country for decades to come. Dependent on the very engineers of this catastrophe, which will no longer see any value in supporting Ukraine.

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE QUESTION IS NOT IF, BUT WHEN? 

 

Watching the news we see economic crises worldwide. While we are not currently in a major downturn, we have been sort of treading water for the last 8 years. The  underlying problems with most economies, particularly western Europe and the United States, have not improved. In fact, the amount of debt and the future ability to deal with a downturn is a lot more unstable than before. The amount of debt held by Western countries, businesses and individuals, has actually increased since 2007. This election year we hear from some who believe if we just raise taxes on the wealthy all will be well. Others contend that all will be well if we can just instill confidence that a solution is near. Sorry. All will not be well. Taxes would have to be doubled in most cases, which will cause an economic collapse, or government spending would have to be cut in half, which will also cause a collapse.

Of course the problem is that there has been an accumulation of extraordinary debt by all governments, corporations, and individuals. There is not a precedent for this situation in human history. While the housing bubble was the symptom that was burst, when gas rose to $4.00 a gallon, in the US the massive debts held by everyone was the real problem. Debts of individuals can be traced to central banks that have not been willing to clear excess debts since the early 1980’s. Instead, they have encouraged and enabled individuals to borrow beyond their means to repay. We now see a classic debt collapse scenario where people are having a hard time servicing the debt they have and banks are raising standards to stop losses...with the economy stagnating until the debts are reduced to normal levels. This may take decades rather than years. 　

A far bigger problem is the debt of governments, particularly in Western Europe and the US. These debts are a direct result of massive spending and the whole idea of democratic socialism where votes were bought by promising unsustainable benefits...to individuals, spending on projects, surveys, studies, ad nauseum... to the well connected. When fulfilling these promises could not be sustained by raising taxes they just borrowed the money to be consumed. The spending on projects, etc. is more easily addressed by just saying "NO"...BUT the spending on benefits is much more difficult to address. The real culprit in all this is that socialism has been a dismal failure whenever it has been tried. I should qualify that by distinguishing between voluntary and involuntary socialism.

Voluntary socialism is self limiting. An example is fire insurance. If the incidence of loss becomes excessive, premiums go up and some people may refuse to buy insurance. If losses become excessive insurance companies may refuse to enter that market. There are natural limits for both parties.

The first instance of collectivist failure was recorded in the New Testament. The early Christians, thinking that the end was near, sold there possessions, dined together and shared with each other. It was not long until Paul, hearing complaints from the responsible members of the community, wrote to them saying, “He who does not work shall not eat.” Human nature and the voluntary basis of this experiment was a natural remedy.

Another example was the Puritans who landed in Plymouth in 1620. They formed the, "Mayflower Compact," an agreement to share all property and work in common. After 3 years of this experiment, they were barely able to survive. The Puritan's endeavor had been financed by investors in Europe who hoped they would reap a profit by the Puritans repaying their debts with furs and other goods. After 3 years of no return, investors refused to send any more support and the idea was scrapped. The Puritans then distributed land to each family and they were on their own - the result was the beginning of prosperity for all.  It was chronicled by William Bradford that while the number of people who were either too weak or incapable of work grew, and the young and motivated were increasingly unhappy with the communal arrangement, many who formally were unable to add much to the community instantly became more productive when they were able to keep the fruits of their labor.

Remember the 1960’s  communes, where a few self motivated people bought a ranch and lived off the land? It was not long until they were supporting a larger and larger number of new disciples, who agreed it was wonderful, except for the motivation part. Again it ended in a natural turn of events and human nature.

Now to involuntary socialism. Of course the greatest example has to be the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. This experiment was immediate total government control that in the end was a dramatic failure. It may take Russia several generations to recover from the debacle. While touted by Socialists as the wonderful system of the future, (including Eleanor Roosevelt who visited the country many times in the 1930s when the worst atrocities were being committed), Solzhenitsyn and others saw and reported the true nature of the experiment. It's interesting to note that from the revolution in the USSR in 1917 to its collapse in 1989 was 72 years. If we take 1935 as the "embrace of socialism" in western Europe and the US, we end up at 2007. Does it take roughly this long for the failures of socialism to become unsustainable? While we have not had total control by the governments of western Europe or the US, we have been progressing in that direction for decades...hence the term progressivism. It has been a slow incremental movement that has taken control of most industries through regulation and has encouraged dependency by promising a safety net to those displaced by their policies. The part of the private sector that has not been effectively controlled by the government is the food and energy sector. They are in the process of taking over the energy sector and when they can control food they will have complete control of the economy and the people. Remember the winners of socialist economies are the ruling class who often live well off on what they skim off of the redistribution schemes. Even in the Soviet Union they lived well in their dachaus and had access to  travel and benefits that could only be dreamed of by the rest of the population.

While it all appears wonderful in theory, Unchangeable Human Nature has not been taken into account. Humans will help each other to some extent, but most will not jeopardize their or their families well-being for others. On a voluntary basis, many are willing to help those in need, in danger, etc. but as soon as it becomes involuntary, there will be resistance. This is just the nature of human survival instincts. While it may not measure up to the expectations of the ideologues of socialism, it is probably superior to all other organisms on earth. The Soviet experiment ended when there were no longer any incentives left. The Russians who have weathered one form of dictatorship for their whole existence were noted to remark to each other, "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us." In the end the only prospering part of the economy was the black market and flea markets.

So what has happened in every case of involuntary socialism?  Those who believe they are taxed too much will resist by finding ways to pay less; those who believe they are restricted in some way will find ways around the restrictions. Too much tax will usually create less revenue, etc. At first this is accepted or minimally enforced, but as the deficits grow, enforcement must increase and we see a cycle of increased enforcement, then less activity, then less revenue and if left to follow a linear path to forced labor and slavery.

In the U.S. there was once a work ethic and pride of self reliance - many would not accept charity -but after decades of increasing regulation and taxation it seems all restraint has fallen off and everyone will take and pursue more benefits, even if liquidating assets and claiming poverty is necessary. The dam has broken. The tipping point has been reached. It will not likely be restored by government action, or by acts of Congress; the same applies to Western Europe.

So what is the solution? At this point there is no easy solution. All solutions will require much pain and suffering. It may be limited by economic suffering and the necessary austerity to liquidate the debt and begin a new start with liberty and self reliance the foundation...OR...it may be that more enforcement will be needed until we return to feudal type society where basic necessities will be provided to the productive and compliant and those that do not conform will be eliminated from society by the powers that be. This is the question that will be answered when the coming collapse reaches its fulfillment.

originally published 2/11/2016

update 9/1/22   We are about to see the fulfillment of this narrative, possibly within months in Western Europe and then on to the U.S.

update 3/10/2023  We see the new budget is increased by 1 Trillion dollars. Debt of over 31 Trillion. Inflation destroying buying power. It is all unsustainable. 

update 11/16/2023, all the problems are now more severe, $34 trillion debt, $2 trillion deficit. Bond market in trouble. Any attempts to fiscal responsibility labeled extreme. 

update 5/24/2024, U.S. now incurring debt at the rate of $1 trillion every 100 days. Gold $2450 oz. While all seems well, it is all unsustainable, Economic crisis on the horizon.

Update 2/19/2025. U.S. debt nears $37 trillion. Gold $2940. Trump and DOGE attempt to reform spending and fraud in budget. Many would rather go down with the ship than change this unsustainable course.

Update 7/21/2025. U.S. debt now over $37 Trillion. deficit near $2 Trillion. Gold $3300 per oz. All unsustainable.

A brief history of money.

A BRIEF HISTORY OF MONEY

Money, we are all familiar with it, most want more, some to the point of  excess. It has been described as the, "Root of all Evil".  Realistically, we do need a certain amount, but I would like to talk about a simple brief history of Money.

Originally, most financial transactions were a form of barter,"I'll trade you a goat for that woven shirt that one of your wives made". Or,"I am tired of goats, how about we trade for some of your sheep". This all worked out well and good, but eventually someone got the bright idea of converting wealth to some form of exchange.

There is some record of salt being a form of exchange, or round stones with holes,  but most items were quick to lose their value when someone either found a pit with enough salt to flood the market or a method to mass produce stones with holes.

Eventually they settled on gold and silver as a form of money. Early records show that, as early as 2150 BC, the Shekel and Talent were used in the middle east, These were measures of weight,  A shekel was .36 of a troy weight oz. A Talent was equal to 60 manehs and 3000 shekels. This standard of weight was used by Egypt, Babylon, Phoenicia, Greece, Persia etc.  The ratio was 15 shekel's of silver = 1 shekel of gold.  Everyone had a balance scale to do business.

Finally, as governments grew and became more sophisticated, the minting of money began. This consisted of coins which were of a standardized weight, usually embossed with the image of  the King or individual in power at the time. It made trade much simpler and  must have caused a recession in the scale business.

As is usually the case, it did allow for some skulduggery, clipping and shaving of coins was known to happen. Then Kings sometimes made the coins smaller with the same designation. This may have been the first form of Government endorsed inflation.  "Honey, were did we put that old scale?"

Interestingly, the size and weight of coins varied over the years, but the ratio of gold to silver was fairly constant from 500 BC up to the 20th Century.

Biblical  times-  12-1             Rome          12-1         Europe     0-1492        10-1

Early Greece      13-1             Early Japan  8-1                          1492-1834   15-1

Alexander          10-1             Early China  12-1        England                       16-1

The United States settled on the ratio of 15-1  The Constitution stated that all money was to be gold or silver coin.

O course, we have been talking about gold and silver coins. What about paper money?

In medieval Europe, gold and silver was the medium of exchange. When someone had a little more than needed for survival, they often placed it with a Goldsmith, who had a natural need for security in his business.  He would account for their items and give them a receipt.  The Rothschild's started out this way.  Humans sometimes being a little lazy, and not too careful about things, began to exchange the receipts for other goods and services and leave the gold with the goldsmith.  Goldsmiths, who were a little sharper than the average person of the day, soon realized that his receipts were as good as gold, and no one knew how much gold he really had stored for people. He was able to purchase Real-Estate, finance explorers to the new world and many other endeavors with his own receipts that did not represent gold in his possession. I could expound forever about how they used this power, but I will resist.

There were many known instances were these early bankers got a little too greedy, rumors circulated  that there was more receipts than gold, and a run for their gold started.  When they could not produce the gold,  he might have been found hanging somewhere.

Remember, Politicians and Governments always take note of a good idea to increase their power and wealth.

Early paper money was a receipt for a weight of gold or silver, In the USA. a silver dollar was .7734 troy oz. of silver.  20 silver dollars could be exchanged for 1 Oz. troy of gold, a $20 gold piece. This was a ratio of 15-1. I personally remember silver certificates, which were supposed to be redeemable for 1 silver dollar. Up to 1934 you could exchange a $20 bill for a $20 gold coin. The US dollar had the reputation of being, "as good as gold". The gold-silver ratio today is 72-1.

In 1914, with passage of the Federal Reserve Act,  money no longer represented an asset, but would now represent Government debt. A promise to repay by the government.

In 1934, President Franklin Roosevelt, by executive order, ordered all citizens to turn in their Gold Coins in exchange for paper $20.00 bills. Private possession, or exchange of gold was outlawed. When the government decided they had confiscated all the gold they were going to get, they raised the price of gold to $35.00 oz., this was used for trade between countries. Those wonderful paper dollars they exchanged with the citizenry just became worth 43% less than the gold coins they exchanged.  Citizens were threatened with $10,000 fines and 10 years in jail for not cooperating.  Gold ownership was again legalized in December of 1974.

Silver still circulated as coins till 1964,  when they were replaced by alloys with no intrinsic value.

So now all money that exists, has  no intrinsic value, but only the confidence that someone else will exchange goods and services for it. While there are many instances in modern history where that confidence evaporated, so far most people are still willing to accept modern currency.

Currency itself is now in the process of being replaced with electronic currency, Bitcoin, Debit and Credit cards etc.. Endless possibilities, that will make the ancient clippers, shavers and dishonest goldsmiths envious.

originally published Oct. 12, 2015

It appears we are now coming to the end of fiat currency era, that is currency without any real built in value. What will replace it is yet to be seen. Big government would of course love to have currency that is just a digital entry, that they could manipulate, block, or devalue with a click of a computer. It seems some of the world is exploring another option that would be some form of real money. There is one of those age old truths that good money will always drive out bad money. That is true as long as there is an option of good money available. I expect we will seeing the new options in the near future. 
5/8/23

We now see the plan to introduce a central bank digital currency. Indeed, a monetary unit without any intrinsic value, unable to be held personally. It will allow governments to view every transaction, determine what transactions should be allowed, confiscate all wealth with the click of a computer key and in effect give government ultimate power over the people. It will be the end of all freedom of choice in a free market. It will give government the ability to tax, inflate, confiscate and dictate what can and cannot be traded. It will create all kinds of methods to avoid this trap and will be accompanied with the penalties to enforce that this is the only alternative money.

8/24/23

We can expect the unsustainable debt and deficits of the United States, accompanied by the desire of other countries to flee the use of the dollar, to reach a crisis in the near future. It is very likely that it will soon be clear that this debt will no longer find those willing to risk this haven for their real money. We can expect schemes to rescue this situation with possibly forced investment by IRA and 401's into U.S. debt or a sudden crisis followed by the end of this current fiat money system. We expect the cure to be total control of all assets.

5/3/2024

The EU is pushing to get its CBDC launched this year. As the debt situation in most of the western world is escalating many predict some sort of reset of the financial system. It will most likely be preceded by a debt crisis and then the roll out of the promised solution.

9/27/2024

We now see flight from U.S. bonds from countries around the world. It seems that interest rates are now possibly needed to rise to sell this debt. Those liquidating U.S. debt seem to be buying Monetary metal. The answer to shoring up the U.S. dollar and debt market is a balanced budget. With a $2 trillion deficit either raising taxes or cutting spending will cause a economic recession at best.

1/14/25

The purpose of this article is to hope to make people aware of what money is supposed to be. A store of value, an asset, not an instrument of manipulation by governments. 

3/17/2025

Can interest on national debt be lowered by fed action?

 OR DO MARKET FORCES NOW CONTROL YIELD?

FED ACTION CAN INCREASE INFLATION

President Trump continues to criticize Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates. He believes that the Federal Reserve can save $1 Trillion in interest on the debt by lowering rates to 1%. While this all sounds very simple, it is unlikely that interest on the debt can be controlled completely by the federal reserve. 

If the Fed lowers rates it may cause a rebound in housing prices and building activity but it will also send a signal that higher inflation is ahead, especially in housing and building materials. The national debt, now $37 Trillion and rising by $2 Trillion a year is another matter. Interest rates rose after passage of the last budget as it sent the signal that inflation is going to increase, the buying power of the dollar is going to decrease and along with it the interest on the debt will likely continue to increase. 

Interest rates on the debt are set by market forces on treasury auctions and at present the only thing keeping them alive is that the rest of the world is also increasing debt and making the U.S. market somewhat stable by its size and history. Maybe the best of bad choices situation.

Foreign buyers of U.S. debt have been liquidating their holdings and moving into metals and other forms of assets. Much of this is in response to the massive deficits in the U.S. budget that indicate a continued loss of purchasing power for the dollar. While savers have enjoyed at least some return on their money within increased CD rates, I suspect much of this money is ending up in government debt, the fed can lower that rate, but it will be accompanied by another round of real estate malinvestment and speculation.

Real efforts to decrease government interest payments would be by actual fiscal responsibility and cutting deficits and lowering the debt, without that it is just another kicking of the problem down the road, when it may be very soon out of road.

Did Trump inherit Epstein's compromised assets?

 REVELATIONS WOULD DESTROY THEIR USEFULNESS

LEVERAGE FOR ANYONE WHO HAS THE INFORMATION

The Epstein saga continues, with more informations being revealed daily, along with much speculation. Most agree that Epstein was in the business of comprising influential people and also that the he was most likely working for one or more intelligence agencies, most likely Mossad. Other than that it seems the details have been very successfully kept hidden.

It is likely that the Trump administration, by controlling the FBI and other government agencies, has access to most of the details. Before being elected it was promised all would be revealed, but as we now see they are claiming to move on and that nothing is here. So, what has happened, has the administration been compromised by powerful forces or has the administration realized that this information is very valuable and may be able to actually protect them from powerful forces. Is this information now an insurance policy that can be leveraged to aid the administration in its fight with the so called deep state, both domestically and internationally.

The outcry from inside the base is very loud and real and is going to put enormous pressure on the Trump administration. The opposition who also was involved in keeping most of this quite, is now using it as weapon against Trump. I expect all this will continue, but It seems the decision has been made to keep this under wraps and move on, it is unlikely that will change.

This is of course is just another speculation along with others about what is happening here and is not an effort to look for justification. The reality is that we are in fact being lied to no matter the reasons, only time will tell if it all will be worthwhile in the end. 

Managing the warmongers.

 SO FAR, TRUMP HAS KEPT U.S. OUT OF DIRECT INVOLVEMENT IN WAR

BUT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO END INDIRECT INVOLVEMENT

We see that the war in Ukraine continues and most everyone believes Iran 2.0 is inevitable. Yet, so far Trump has been able to avoid direct participation in these wars, other than the dropping of some bombs on Iran, another effort to satisfy those desiring war.

Yesterday, we witnessed a white house meeting where Trump agreed to sell lots of weapons to NATO that are expected to be gifted to Ukraine, weapons that are actually not available in numbers to be very consequential. An effort that may keep the warmonger's silent at least for the next 50 days when Trump may be pressured agree to massive tariffs on China and India, an idea that will damage the U.S. more than Russia and will drive more countries into the BRICS union.

Then there is Netanyahu and the Israel lobby who spent days in Washington without, at least visibly, any commitment for the U.S. to go to war with Iran. It seems pretty clear that Trump does not want to go to war with Iran, a likely drawn out affair that would distract from more pressing issues.

It is clear that the powers in Washington desire to run foreign policy and are willing to allow presidents to have their way on domestic issues. This was very clear during the Obama and Biden administrations which seemed to have a free hand at racial baiting and then just plain domestic chaos as long as they could engage in war around the world. 

It must be very dangerous to outright reject these powers, hence the attempts to manage them without directly rejecting their desire for more war. The Ukraine thing may be more in the hands of the Russians at this point, as no amount of weapons without direct involvement of NATO will change the outcome.

As for Iran/Israel. Israel will need to regroup and resupply to re engage with Iran, which without the direct involvement of the U.S., would be a risky bet. It may take some time to produce defensive weapons for Israel to feel comfortable to attack Iran.

The reality is without U.S. involvement, war becomes a very risky affair. That applies to most of the world, at least for now. 

Trump may have a couple of months without massive pressure for war, we will see, but it seems those desiring war are very persistent and very devious in ways to trap presidents into more war.

Not THE List, but an Epstein list.

 MULTIPLE HUNDREDS ASSOCIATED WITH EPSTEIN

MANY MAY BE INNOCENT OF WRONGDOING

Below is a list of prominent people who were involved with Jeffrey Epstein, this list was compiled from court records or other public documents. It no way indicates that they were in involved in wrongdoing, but they may be able to shed light on what was the motive of Epstein's massive operation. 

from Sonar21

This is only a small number of the actual people who were involved with Epstein. I suspect more names will be coming out in the days ahead. 

The major questions still unanswered are:

1. Where did the Hundreds of Millions of dollars come from that financed this operation?

2. What was the motive of this operation?

3. Was this a massive foreign or domestic intelligence operation?

4. Explain the contradiction that if there are tapes of individuals involved with children as the AJ claims, they are guilty of breaking the law. There is a question even about if there were, so called, children, or just some under 18 individuals who were paid for their services. 

It should be noted that the age of consent in most states in the USA is 16, some are 17 and only a handful are 18. There has not been any indication that anyone was forced or restrained in these operations. While we continually hear of underage women, does anyone believe that this was the motive of this operation?

Many of those attending were there on scientific and other meetings that most likely did not have to do with sex. Where they there in an attempt to gain information about cutting edge technology? 

Lots of questions, and if nothing actually happened, why is Maxwell sentenced to 20 years. 

At present the consensus is growing that Epstein and Maxwell were involved with Israeli intelligence, as was Maxwell's father many years ago.

There are many indications that Epstein was murdered, not a suicide. I actually question if it is even possible to die by the methods described.  

I suspect that this whole affair is not going to fade away and will become a major scandal in U.S. history.

Is Israel's plan to settle the "Gazan Question" a rehash of "Madagascar Plan"?

 WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THERE IS NO PLACE TO GO

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF

One of the top items on the list in Netanyahu's trip to Washington was approval for the Israeli plan to move the population of Gaza out of the area. It seems there was no definitive agreement, at least not publicly.

This plan is openly being talked about in Israel and is intended to move the population of Gaza into a "concentrated area" in Rafiah. It is ironically being called a humanitarian zone. It is expected that it will be the only area were food water and other resources will be available in Gaza. It is also proposed this will be a staging area for the "voluntary" migration of these people out of Gaza.

There is speculation that this plan is going to be put into motion with or without Washington's approval, but the funding will be difficult without that approval.

No one answers where these people will be going and what will happen when they have nowhere to go or funding or war makes it impossible.

It is all reminiscent of the "Madagascar plan" proposed by some in Britain, Netherlands and Poland in 1937 as a solution to the "Jewish Question" going on in Europe at the time. The Germans sent teams to Madagascar to study the feasibility of the idea in 1940, but all efforts were scraped with outbreak of war.

That brought about the "final solution" and the rhetoric and the polices evolving in this situation are eerily reminiscent of the past.   

Azerbaijan's dangerous gamble.

 QUESTIONING AZERBAIJAN'S NATIONAL INTEREST

LIVING IN A DANGEROUS NEIGHBORHOOD

Recently Azerbaijan has been in the news. It seems there are indications that they have been complicit in the recent attack by Israel on Iran. At the same time, it seems they have been looking to magnify its disputes with Russia and neighbor Armenia. Azerbaijan is in the process of selling gas and oil to the EU with pipelines through Turkey, a good thing for the EU and Azerbaijan. At the same time it seems that foreign intelligence operatives are present in massive numbers and has decided that Azerbaijan can be a pivotal player in the ongoing global gamesmanship.

Since the first choice for a southern front, Georgia, has decided that it's best interest is to stay a neutral party and cultivate good relations with its northern neighbor Russia and the west. The older citizens of Georgia decided they did not want to become a southern version of Ukraine.

Azerbaijan is a majority Shia nation, same as Iran. This in itself makes allying with Israel by its leaders as a very risky proposition. Then to its north is Russia who is very sensitive to any of its neighbors deciding to be a military ally of the west, another risky proposition.

It seems it is also putting a lot of faith in Turkey, who has its own designs for the region and has proved to be a notorious double dealer. One has to wonder what promises the leaders of Azerbaijan have been sold in exchange for this desire to enter the global chess game in this very dangerous neighborhood.

Since the conflict in Ukraine is not going well, it has been the desire of the western powers to open a southern front against Russia and at the same time a northern front against Iran. Azerbaijan is positioned geographically to serve as that conduit for both conflicts. A very dangerous proposition for the citizens of Azerbaijan, one has to wonder where it views the positive in a reward/risk analysis. 

I suspect we will soon find out as the Ukrainian situation is dire and the next round with Iran will be sooner rather than later.

Punishing BRICS validates its existence.

 ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC SYSTEM INEVITABLE

TRADE IS BEING CONDUCTED IN NATIONAL CURRENCIES

We hear that Trump threatens to impose a 10% tariff on any country that is part of the BRICS economic group. This is just one more move added to sanctions and asset freezes that will encourage more countries to join the alternative to the present global trading system. While some call it an attempt to attack the dollar as the global reserve currency, it is alternative not a replacement. In fact the BRICS members are unanimous, at this point, that they do not want to replace the dollar with another national currency, as they fear it will just lead to same abuses that are plaguing the current system.

As for the dollar, the dollar is being threatened by the United States out of control and unsustainable deficits and debt. Producing countries are balking at taking, keeping or investing in a currency that is continually losing buying power. The dollar is no longer "As good as Gold". The move is to conduct cross border transactions in each nations own currencies in a new trading platform that is gaining acceptance. It is quicker and less costly that he current SWIFT system.

When the dollar became the global reserve currency, the United States was the undisputed manufacturing leader, the dollar could buy almost any item produced in the United States, that is no longer the reality. At the same time, keeping or buying U.S. treasury bonds is viewed as a  risky and losing investment. Any attempt to force or intimidate others to hold or use dollars will just validate the need for an alternative.

The latest U.S. budget with its continuing massive deficits sent a message to the world that there is no effort for the U.S. to address its financial irresponsibility. The bond market declined, interest on those bonds increased, and it will add to future deficits and debt. It also makes it unlikely that domestic interest rates can be lowered and in fact may be forced to rise. It also will likely result in increased inflation.

The United States can not force or intimidate others to accept the dollar, only by making the dollar a sound means of financial stability will encourage others to desire to hold that currency. 

Sex trafficking was not Epstein's motive, just a tool.

 

 NO ONE IS ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS

WHO WAS EPSTEIN'S EMPLOYER?

We again hear all the talk about who was on Epstein's airplane? Who visited his island in the Caribbean? Who attended his parties in New York or Who spent time in his New Mexico ranch? It is all a frivolous distraction from the real issues involved with the affairs of Epstein and Giselle Maxwell. Everyone wants to focus on sex and sex trafficking to important people. Every name that is listed is now called a client, an intentional distraction from what the real questions should be.

Where did Jeffrey Epstein's money come from? No one asks and no one has yet to unravel where all the money came from. It does not appear that Epstein or Maxwell received any money from his supposed clients. So we are to assume he just arranged all these meetings and extravagant parties just to rub shoulders with the rich and famous? A distraction from the real motives for sure.

Then we are to believe that every person that was involved with Epstein was interested in underage women. This is just a distraction from Epstein's far bigger operation. He was able to arrange funds for charitable groups, He was able to find funds for research into medical and other endeavors. He was instrumental in getting the Clinton foundation off the ground. In defense of Clinton he was involved with Epstein in his fundraising and political issues, no one knows if sex had anything to do with Clinton's association. 

The intentional attempt to tie Donald Trump to Epstein has been obvious, a couple of pictures from some gatherings, but no mention of Trump's barring Epstein from Mar-a-logo. Many people knew Epstein, many people attended functions with Epstein, but no one has yet testified as to what these connections entailed.

It has been reported that in Epstein's New York mansion, every room in the house was wired for video and sound with a control room maintained by a permanent staff. Has anyone ever interviewed this staff? Has anyone ever seen these recordings? It is also claimed this same situation was conducted on the island and the ranch. Are we to suppose that Epstein was blackmailing these people for money? It is unlikely that such a thing would have not gotten around in those circles.

If you see the list of contacts, we see judges, we see renowned professors, we see leaders in industry, elected officials, all people with recognition and possible influence. I would expect that many of them are very carful people who knew better than be placed in a compromising position, but if only a small percentage took the bait, whatever that bait was, girls, boys, money, drugs or bribery this information could be stored, maybe for years, until a favorable ruling was needed, or a treatise from some professor on some issue or a close vote in some parliament or senate. The question is, who was behind Epstein's compromise business? A very big business.

Intelligence agencies have been known to target people who may be successful in the future as early as college years. Time when many engage in youthful activities that they would refrain from later in life. Many are also recruited in college for different roles. They are always looking to who may be an important person in the future. Most of these files and information may be worthless, but a few may be very valuable in the future. 

Again, no one is asking what was Epstein and Maxwell's motives? Who was their employer and where did they get all that money? Where are all the tapes and recordings? Where are all the files? Was their employer a government agency like the CIA or Mi6 or both, or a private group with a more sinister motive? Again, it is easier to chase stories of innuendo concerning sex and moral failings of the rich and famous rather than even ask the real questions that should be answered.

Originally published 1/4/24

U.S. experiment in self government changed the world.

 SIGNALED THE END OF FEUDALISM

BECAME AN EXAMPLE FOR THE WORLD

While we have again celebrated the July 4th Declaration of Independence, I suspect many no longer realize the impact that event had on the world. "The shot heard around the world" from Waldo Emerson's poem that was a reference to the first battles of revolution and the beginning worldwide battle against colonialism. While the United States experiment provided opportunity and a huge increase in wealth, the nation grew from internal production and hard work, rather than the exploitation of foreign lands. It was an example to be envied by much of the world. 

While an example to be copied, the bad habit of colonialism continued and many countries were still fighting for independence in the middle of the 20th century and even today. George Washington's farewell address made note that the new country should avoid becoming entangled in European affairs, avoid permanent alliances and seek a neutral position and emphasized the importance of maintaining good faith and fairness in dealing with other nations. Such sound advice served the new nation well and was rewarded for embracing that policy and made the nation, " The light upon the hill"

While the country has always had its failures and flaws it was not until after WW2 that it began a policy of interventionism and an effort to control the rest of the world. Often influenced by the still colonial seeking countries of Europe, the country soon became the hammer to force submission or face the consequences. Then in the 1990's we hear the phrase the "only remaining Superpower" and the doubling down on exercising that power to fashion the world in some desired image, but not in the image of that new nation of 1776.

Many of the crisis existing today bagan by the policy of the English and French, in the  aftermath of WW1, in drawing countries boundaries and even creating countries to be exploited for their gain. This was done in Europe, the middle east Africa and Asia. The consequences of this arrogance is still being felt today.

We still see those that covet the resources of others and the power that wealth brings, but gained by war and taking, rather than work, perseverance and fair dealings with others. It has always historically been a path to destruction. 

The United States has been blessed with the protection of oceans on either side and an abundance of resources that allowed centuries of safety and prosperity. What we don't have we can buy and by hard work and ingenuity we can insure that safety and prosperity continues. 

We need to recognize that we have been led down a path that can only result in the end of this experiment. Nations need to abide by same rules as individuals. Fair and honest dealings do work in the long run. Might does not make right and it will end in the expected consequences. 

U.S. shifts air defense assets from Ukraine.

 SHORTAGE OF STOCKPILES WITH 2 FRONT WAR

ISRAEL WILL TAKE PRIORITY

It has now been officially announced that some weapons will no longer be shipped to Ukraine. The Pentagon is claiming that air defense missiles are now in short supply and causing a danger to U.S. national defense. 

Patriot missiles are being produced at a rate of 500 per year and money has been allocated to raise that number to 650 a year. Each missile costs $4 million and a system for a missile battery cost $1 billion.

The Thaad missile cost $12 to $15 million and production is estimated at 8 a month or 96 per year.

The reality is the very expensive missile defense systems can be depleted by large numbers of  drones and other projectiles in a short time. Making them more selective, will then allow drones and other less dangerous weapons to be even more effective. Many of these other weapons are manufactured at a cost in thousands rather than millions. Many small nations like Yemen have been able to produce effective offensive missiles creating a dilemma at to what defenses need to made to lower cost, increase production of air defense weapons. 

Israel was depleting its missile defenses at an alarming rate in the 12 days of war with Iran, it could not replace the number being expended, it is likely going to get every available missile from bases and assets as possible.

During WW2 the U.S was able to produce 300,000 planes in just 5 years attesting to its overwhelming manufacturing capacity. 

Germany it is acknowledged had the best and most sophisticated weapons, expensive and not easily produced in numbers, especially when it became subject to air attack.

Today we see politicians and other trash talkers continually making threats against China, a country, if motivated, that will be able to outproduce the U.S. by many multiples. Can anyone explain the logic in this policy. 

We see that the Defense budget has now been raised to over $1 trillion surpassing the next combined spending of the next 10 nations including China and Russia. While DOGE was finding waste and fraud in many places the Pentagon seems to have been exempt and rather than reevaluating what is needed, it seems that more money is the answer. More of the same, is unlikely to solve the dilemma in a very quickly changing world.

Focus shifts from Ukraine to Iran, Azerbaijan and?

 OBJECTIVE IS STILL MAINTAINING CONTROL

BRICS AND FINANCIAL DOMINATION 

The 2025 BRICS annual meeting is to be in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, July 6th. and 7th. While we see the Ukraine conflict now in its 3rd year and the Iran conflict still smouldering it needs to be mentioned that the big motive in much of the world unrest is the imminent loss of financial control by the West. The momentum for the reality of a alternative economic system moves forward steadily. The tactics of sanctions, fake negotiations and devious maneuvering just increase the speed of this alternative system becoming reality.

At the same time, the cost of attempting to maintain that control continues to grow, as budgets in the West all have massive deficits and growing unsustainable debt, the latest U.S. budget is a perfect example.

It has been the pattern in world history that empires always implode from over extension and massive debt. While historically, the United States was never an empire in the fashion of the Spanish or British empire, it created its wealth from internal enterprise and hard work, rather than in the age old method of Plunder and Colonialism. It seems that soon after WW2 the United States in cooperation with the economic power of the former British Empire, leadership saw opportunity in the rest of the world and slowly embraced the age old lust for world power and control. While the country lost its former internal wealth formation it seemed to replace that with the desire to control the world for financial gain. The results have always been historically the same, maintaining the empire soon leads to bankruptcy and disaster.

At present it seems those who desire to maintain that control are willing to cause the death of millions and destroy much in their quest to maintain control. The results of their quest, is in fact, insuring their demise and ultimate collapse.

So, as we watch unrest and violence around the world, be aware that the front shifts from Ukraine to Iran and then, we will see what will be next. A better idea would be to buy oil from the mideast and minerals from Russia and the result could be mutual prosperity. Prosperity seems to be secondary to the desire to control.

 

IAEA. Iran's catch 22.

 IAEA, JUST THE LATEST TO BE POLITICIZED

LOSING CREDIBILITY AND INDEPENDENCE

Iran, a signed member of the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty since 1970 is now in the midst of a serious dispute concerning the International Atomic Energy Agency. The treaty members have agreed not to be a nuclear military power and part of the agreement is inspections of nuclear facilities by IAEA. At present, since the 12 day war, Iran has not consented for the IAEA to resumé inspections inside the country.

As part of the original Trump deal with Iran, Iran had agreed to limit its enrichment to the percentage needed for domestic use in energy, desalination and medical purposes. They also agreed to monitoring by the IAEA. This deal was vetoed by Israel who wanted no ability for any nuclear enrichment and also near total disarmament of its missile program. This was unacceptable for Iran, and in hindsight a reasonable decision in the hope to insure their existence.

The first priority of Israel's attack on Iran on June 12 th. was Iran's leadership and nuclear scientists. It has been revealed that the IAEA had collected the names and addresses of these scientists and specifics about Iran's nuclear sites and passed them on to Israel's intelligence. Iran has been talking about arresting the current head of IAEA for being complicit in the attack that resulted in over 900 dead, many wounded, and much damage. Internally they will not be able to let the IAEA back into the country and, of course, this will be used as a reason for more military action. 

This could be remedied by the International community by replacing many in the IAEA in an effort to regain its credibility, but it seems that all is fair in the ongoing war with Iran and any others who may not be in favor.

I suspect we will be hearing much about this in the days to come.

Why quick ceasefire?

 MORE FACTS ABOUT WHO WANTED CEASEFIRE

PAUSE UNTIL NEXT ROUND?

Many were surprised to watch the 12 days of Iran/US/ Israeli conflict pause in a dramatic ceasefire. Let's look at the facts by all sides to see why this happened and if it is going to be a lasting end to the conflict.

Israel initiated this conflict, supposedly because of Iran's imminent ability to make nuclear weapons. This long planned attack was actually an effort to topple the government of Iran in a massive attack on the leadership of the country. It was successful in killing many of the leadership and also many in their scientific community. It was also designed to damage their communication and control and their air defense. It was successful and there were messages and speeches encouraging the citizens to rise up and overthrow the government. It became clear in a short time that this attack actually rallied support for the government of Iran. Iran was also able within 24 hours to reestablish command and control and begin a counter offensive with missle attacks on Israel. It appears that Israel hoped that the U.S. would quickly enter into this conflict, when it appeared they were winning.  

The Trump administration has been under extreme pressure from within the United States and Israel to attack Iran. Many were claiming that the government was weak and that there was little support for the government. It was claimed that a massive attack would cause an escalating collapse within the country. A very similar assessment of what would happen to Russia in such a crisis. It appears that Trump became convinced that Israeli intelligence had a better grasp of the analysis than the U.S. intelligence community. Trump has been apprehensive about getting involved in a drawn out war in the region as it would interfere with his bigger priorities both at home and on the world stage.

Iran has refused to take the bait numerous time and only responded in a limited way to numerous Israeli attempts to bait Iran into war. All with the hope that the U.S. would be forced to destroy Iran. Finally it appears that Israel made the decision to execute their long planned effort and gave Iran no other option but to respond. Below is a map showing the effects of the Iranian response on Israel. 

Sonar21.com

At the outset Iran sent massive numbers of drones and missiles that caused Israel to use large amounts of air Defense missiles, literally Billion of dollars of missiles. It soon became clear that Israel would soon become short of the required missiles and with the ports and airports closed it would soon become difficult to replace.  After some time, the number of missiles launched by Iran was reduced, but the percentage that hit, rose. After using up their obsolete and sometimes non warhead missiles they dipped into their more effective and larger missiles. some believe that at the rate things were going Israel would be in a very difficult position in a week or ten days. It was clear what was happening when Israel banned photos and videos from being taken. That's when the idea of a ceasefire became imperative.

Trump, who initially denied involvement in the attack, then when it was so successful, claimed partnership, then when intelligence showed where things were going, was all too willing to bomb the nuclear facilities, claim victory and a ceasefire.

As for Iran, they understood that if Israel's existence became threatened it would either draw in the U.S. or even possibly cause Israel to resort to nuclear weapons. Trump also offered some sanctions relief which he has since withdrawn.

Now, we are back to square one, some claiming the need to strike again, since the first strikes were not conclusive, from Israel, the domestic opponents and neocons. Trump would probably prefer to stay out, but the pressure is again going to be enormous.  Israel probably has some plan B strategy in mind. Iran is getting support from China with weapons and they may have made headway in world public opinion.  

Most believe that a resumption of war is very likely in the near future.

"That which doesn't kill you makes you stronger", Maybe?

 ADVOCATES FOR IRAN WAR ARE REGROUPING

EFFORTS TO SUCK U.S. INTO DESTROYING IRAN WILL CONTINUE

It is clear that Trump would like very much to declare victory in the Iran conflict and move on to much more critical items in his agenda. It may be a very difficult balancing act that he will need to navigate to not be lured into an extended war in Iran.  

Israel and its supporters are already regrouping and looking for a path to restart this conflict. While their military is overstretched and there is serious damage to their infrastructure, it is clear they feel that Iran is weakened and vulnerable to attack. The restraints on Israel may be from within and also U.S. public opinion is generally not in favor of a war in Iran. Trump may need a diversion to avoid being forced to resume the Iran war.

Iran in the meantime is purging any possible Israeli agents in the country, it is reported that over 800 arrests have been made and one can expect it will be a wide and deep dragnet for Mossad agents. Iran politically, at present, has been unified and strengthened. 

An issue is now appearing about the IAEA inspectors, who it has been revealed have used their ability to monitor Iran to pass security information to the U.S. and Israel. Many are now concerned that they have lost their credibility and effectiveness everywhere in the future. Iran's reluctance to again allow monitoring will, of course, be used as an excuse to refire the war.

Russia and China will be very likely assist in rebuilding Iran's anti-aircraft defenses and also political assistance in the international forum. Iran may have increased their world public opinion due to their restraint and Israel has lost their standing due to their methods and vicious attacks on public figures.

There are several factions that desire war with Iran. First, of course, is Israel which has portrayed Iran as the source of all their misfortune. Iran has countered that by being very restrained in its reactions to Israel's attempts to lure them into a response that will gain world support. Then there are the neocons who seem to advocate any war anywhere, often motivated by increased weapons spending and possible access to resources for profit. This would include the neocolonial forces in the U.K. and France whose economies are struggling without their colonial incomes for support. As their former colonies in Africa have been pushing them out they are looking for new sources of financial gain. Of course, all these are backed by international business that will also have access to these resources. Then there are the anti-Trumpers who anticipate a prolonged war in Iran will divert him from his goals for reforming government and moving to acceptinging a more co-existential foreign policy.

While the war is on a pause, the forces advocating war are working on many fronts to force a resumption of the conflict.

Is Israel safer now than in 2023?

 CAN ISRAEL OBTAIN PEACE BY MILITARY CONQUEST?

THEIR ROOTS SHOULD GIVE THEM THE ANSWER

Everyone understands the turning point in Israel's present policy as the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas.  The world shared their pain and their horror at what happened. The question is, are things now better due to the policies that were undertaken in reaction to that attack?

In 2023, the Abraham accords had been working to move the Arab world into normalizing relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia, a leader in that world, was about to normalize those relations with Israel. It would have been a giant step in that direction.

At the same time, Iran was in the process of improving relations with Saudi Arabia, not an alliance of Sunni, Saudi Arabia and Shia, Iran to make mischief in the region, but for the desire for economic cooperation and mutual prosperity.

At the same time Iran and Saudi Arabia were considering membership in the BRICS economic group and both would have been put under pressure to moderate their policies to be able to cooperate with the other members including Russia and China.

China was interested in massive cooperation and investment in Israel and was already a major factor in their economy.

While Iran has been labeled, the," Greatest supporter of Terrorism in the world", the label was more appropriate to be placed on Sunni, Saudi Arabia. Most all terrorist acts in Europe and the U.S. including 911, were funded by people in Saudi Arabia. Much of that changed when Mohammed bin Salman, became the de facto ruler of the Kingdom. He orchestrated a major purge of those funders of terrorism and made many reforms in the country. He is much more focused on cooperation and economic development in the region.

Hezbollah, supported by Iran, was moving to be more of a political party in Lebanon and was in fact the government in Lebanon.

Then there is Hamas, the elected government in the Gaza strip. Supported to some extent by Iran but it is unlikely that they were directly under the control of Iran. Hamas, with the changes occurring all around the region, was not in anyone's great favor and was most likely facing a future of irrelevancy. That all ended on Oct,7, 2023 with the attack on Israel. Hamas knowing the past policies of Israeli leadership may have performed yet another baiting of someone similar to the objectives of the 911 attack.

Israel's Mossad is often touted as the most effective intelligence in the world, so much so that many U.S. presidents have accepted their analysis over their own. Amazing that Hamas, could plan for year for an attack and Israeli intelligence was  caught off guard. I could go on with more, but this article is just an analysis of, Is Israel in a better position today than in 2023.

In the aftermath of this attack, Israel could not restrain its lust for revenge and kill multitudes times the number of Israelis' killed. The war on Hamas is still ongoing today, near 2 years, resulting in the death of near 60,000 people living in Gaza and insure the outrage of everyone in the region. Israel lost the greatest political opportunity in the world to gain the compassion and support of much of the world. They lost the opportunity to show their good faith and ask for the support of the world. The kind of support that could have isolated Hamas and possibly turned many to a more favorable image of Israel. The deaths in Gaza provided the excuse for Hezbollah, the Houthis and others to attack Israel. It is still going on even while Israel is declaring victory.

In contrast, Israel is now considered as the perpetrators of Genocide by much of the world, has diminished recognition by its neighbors, engaged in a perpetual attempt to insure their safety by military conflict and only by reliance on the United States and nuclear weapons is their existence insured. Economically they are declining, their population is decreasing as many are seeking to emigrate out, and it can be assumed, by the rhetoric out of Israel, it is going to continue. 

Their future cannot be insured by military might, they can be the greatest military power in the region, but still fail to survive by the costs inside, economically, politically and demographically.

I always refrain from quoting the Torah or the books of Moses in the Christian and Muslim world, but I suspect the answer to their dilemma is more there than in the faith in military might.

Trump has silenced the warmongers, at least for now.

 RESULTS OF ATTACK IRRELEVANT

HAS REGIME CHANGE BEEN CANCELED?

Obviously no one at this time understands what the results of the attack on Iran and the subsequent ceasefire will be in the long term. At least for now, Trump has fulfilled the desires of Netanyahu and the crowd advocating for an attack on Iran. He has fulfilled their demands and possibly kept the U.S. out of a protracted war with Iran. What has gone on behind the scenes between Iran, Russia, China and the U.S. may never be revealed, but it appears some kind of plan is in the works. 

At present, Iran, Israel and the U.S. are declaring victory. What all this means is still not very clear for the long term future of the region.

The Netanyahu plan was that an attack on Iran would inevitably require the assistance of the U.S. What transpired was that Trump watched and waited, instead of immediately joining in the attack on Iran. 12 days of nightly Iranian attacks were in fact depleting Israel's defensive ability and time was on Iran's side to cause severe damage to Israel's infrastructure and economic viability. Iran's leadership was seriously injured but it would take assistance from the U.S. for Israel to prevail in defeating Iran. The time was ripe for a ceasefire and the strike on Iran's nuclear facilities allowed Trump to declare victory and allow for an end of the hostilities, at least for now. Whether the facilities are completely destroyed, is now irrelevant, it appears there will not be any future U.S. attacks at this time.

It is no secret, that there was U.S. communications with Iran, probably through intermediaries, there was no resistance to the attack and everyone was evacuated and possibly some of its equipment. Iran communicated with the U.S. before its response attacks on U.S. bases, everyone was evacuated and no one was injured, face saving for Iran's domestic audience. Within hours a ceasefire was announced, amazing and reeks of some preconceived agreement. 

We can only assume that Iran has been given some assurances going forward. In the UN it is being debated, that according to international law, Iran has the right for peaceful use of nuclear energy, actually the same guidelines as the first agreement, between Iran and the U.S. In the future a UN vote may give the U.S. some cover to enact that agreement. We will have to see.

The reality is that Iran has been portrayed in much of the world as the victim in this affair, Israel coupled with the situation in Gaza has been seriously losing in the world public opinion and in the United States.

Israel's frustration with this long running conflict is understandable, and it is hoped some kind of better situation can be attained. New leadership in Israel may be the opportunity to seek real solutions for the long term, obviously the current path will most likely bring about the demise of the Israel experiment, as protracted war is unsustainable, economically, politically and militarily.

Declaring Victory and moving on?

 IS THIS CEASEFIRE REAL?

OR KABUKI THEATER

In an amazing turn of events, at least a pause in the Iran/Israel/U.S. war is underway. Yesterday, Iran, after informing the U.S. of it intentions, fired missiles at U.S. bases, without much reported damage.Then a ceasefire is reported to go into effect in the coming days. We will have wait to see what is really going on.

Iran has ministers in Russia for consultation and we can expect the behind the scenes conversations have been going on, what exactly is happening is anyone's guess.

It is now widely accepted that the U.S. attack on the nuclear facilities had unverified and less than a decimating effect. It seems that some now want to declare victory and move on. 

Of course, Iran has suffered serious damage to its leadership and Israel has been subjected to 12 days of daily attacks with significant damage to its infrastructure and its ability to run its economy. There is also an exodus of citizens out of the country. It is also reported that its air defenses are in critical need of restocking. If this ceasefire holds, it will allow Israel to resupply, and Iran to receive aid from Russia and China.

Is this the end, or just a pause in preparation for the next round?

There is just too many unknowns to be able to really understand what is going on behind the scenes. 

While Iran has not blocked the straits of Hormuz, it is reported that traffic has been severely slowed, by a combination of Tanker owners being apprehensive about moving in the region, insurance costs dramatically increasing and it will take some time to be brought back to normal under the best of conditions.

While there may be a ceasefire and talk of negotiations, have the demands of no nuclear facilities for Iran and total disarmament changed? Are the advocates for Regime change now being suppressed? Has anything really changed from 2 weeks ago, or is it just a performance to satisfy the desires of all temporarily?

 

Trump, "Time for Peace"?

 IS IT THE END OR JUST THE BEGINNING?

CONSEQUENCES WILL BE WIDE AND LONG LASTING

While the western world celebrates the beginning of the latest war in the middle east, the results of the many precedents set by this project will be long lasting. The war is far from being about Nuclear weapons, just as the war in Iraq was not about "Weapons of Mass destruction" it is just the cover for a far more complicated world conflict.

While many anticipate Iran to strike U.S. forces, it is most likely they will not, at least not for now.  They will concentrate on taking apart Israel piece by piece and making Israel a very unfriendly place to live. It is going to be a war of attrition. While ultimately Iran may lose this conflict, it is likely they will both be ultimate losers. Israel does not have a bright future.

The goal is not the end of Iran nuclear industry, if that was the case, the Iranians had accepted a workable agreement that would have insured no nuclear weapons in exchange for a more normalized relations. The goal  is regime change, the biggest regime change plan, except for Russia and eventually China. In fact, overthrowing and controlling Iran will be considered a huge win against Russia and China. Israel's goal is dominate military power over the entire middle-east as it is the only nuclear power. It also desires for expansion in Gaza, the west bank, parts of Syria and Jordan.

The only ones who seem to not understand this reality is, as usual, most Americans, who accept their governments claims of Sainthood and the promotion of Democracy and fair play around the world.

The precedent that have been set by this whole Iran tragedy is that the United States credibility, which was not too great to begin with, may have been permanently destroyed. No one will enter into negotiations with the U.S. after watching the duplicity and deceit that was displayed in the Iranian negotiations. The negotiations were a scam, never meant to be consummated. The world was watching.

The unspoken rule about assassination of the leadership of another country, is now gone. Politicians and leaders of any government, including the U.S., are now going to be considered fair game.

We can expect that the much touted trade agreement with China will never be fulfilled. China would be a fool to provide any strategic rare earth products used for U.S. arms manufacturing, that ultimately will  be used against them. 

Russia will never enter into serious negotiations with the U.S. after watching what happened to themselves and to Iran while negotiations were in progress.

The policy of smuggling drones into a country for an attack can be perpetrated against any country on earth, including the United States, by countries, groups and individuals.

India has refused to come for a meeting with the White house.

Japan has cancelled negotiations with U.S. after the U.S. tried to force them to dramatically increase their defense spending, by buying weapons from the United States and in effect, provoking China.

At one time, the United States was considered the Light upon a hill. An example to be envied by much of the world. A reputation of fair play and cooperation. As the world has prospered and many counties have become wealthy, the U.S., which has lost much of the source of its prosperity, a huge manufacturing base, has attempted keep its top role in the world by intimidation and threats, attempting to damage the economies of competitors or if necessary and ultimately, brut force.  And even neo-colonialism, does anyone ask who if receiving the benefits of Iraqi, Syrian and Libyan oil revenues?

It has made enemies where there were no enemies and anyone who does not submit is labeled an enemy and subjected to propaganda and demonization.  

Donald Trump promised a new policy, ending the endless wars and embracing a policy of mutual respect and cooperation, many saw hope in negotiations with both Russia and Iran, but he engaged in duplicity and deceit and the possibilities of future negotiations with anyone are dead. Violent confrontation is all that is left.

Rather than accepting the new reality in world affairs and seeking cooperation and coexistence, It seems the U.S. policy is on an unsustainable attempt to rule the world by force, a policy that has always ended in tragic results.

Trump not the only one trapped.

 NETANYAHU NOW CAUGHT IN A DEADLY SQUEEZE

INTERFERING IN OTHERS DOMESTIC POLITICS CAN BE DANGEROUS

Several weeks ago there was speculation that Benjamin Netanyahu had enough influence in the United States Senate to hinder the passage of Trump's budget bill. At the same time there was enormous pressure from inside the United States for the U.S. to attack Iran. A venture that was equally resisted by Trump's base of support. A support that has, in the last week, become possibly critical for Trump's future as president.

This attack that Israel undertook 9 days ago was most likely taken with Trump's awareness, but was not with a feeling of confidence in it's outcome. We watched as Israel, by covertly smuggling drones and saboteurs into Iran was able to kill much of the Iranian leadership, also able to damage Iran's defenses. Within days Israel was stating that there was now an open corridor into Iran, a message to the U.S. that it was now all clear for the U.S. to take out the nuclear facilities. This may have been the plan to start the destruction of Iran, that Israel is incapable of carrying out on its own.

There is now questions about how clear this airspace is, Iran has reported that they have taken down 5 F35's. Israel claims they have not lost any planes, some may question that. There are also reports that most of Israel's attacks are being accomplished with standoff attacks often outside of Iranian airspace. I suspect that U.S. intelligence has a clear picture of the situation. The plan was for an immediate U.S. attack on the nuclear facilities, Trump is talking about 2 weeks. Can Israel absorb daily hits to its infrastructure for another 2 weeks? It has lost 2 of its 3 refineries, only 1 airport is functioning and its main harbor has had severe damage. Israel has shut down much of reporting from inside and has banned the exit of citizens from the country. It is also running low on defensive missiles.

Politically, Netanyahu won a no confidence vote by only 2 votes only days before this attack. Israel is not winning with world public opinion. This attack has broken numerous UN rules and laws. At the same time, it appears a U.S. attack will indeed trigger a serious response from Iran that will plunge the U.S. into a prolonged and daily escalating conflict that will end the effectiveness of the Trump presidency. Netanyahu has been advocating for an attack on Iran for 30 years. It has always been that Iran was within weeks of a nuclear weapon. It may true, but crying wolf for 30 years has consequences. An attack on Iran by Bush 2 was rejected because the cost benefit analysis was very bad. Same for Obama, same for Trump first term, same for even Biden, I expect that an objective analysis is the same, the costs to the U.S. and world far exceed the benefits.

Will Israel now orchestrate an attack on U.S. bases and blame it on Iran, a deadly serious and risky operation with much of the world now focused on the activities in the region? Is it possible to now pass the budget bill quickly as an incentive for Trump to take action? 

Every day that goes by adds to the decimation of Israel. It also raises the possibility of more desperate actions that will end in more death and destruction. Many claim that Iran has been planning for just such a situation since 2003 and will not surrender or go down without a fight. 

A very precarious situation for Israel and for the U.S. 

Trump trapped, No way out.

 CONFLICT IS LIKELY TO LAST FOR THE REST OF HIS PRESIDENCY

BOOTS ON THE GROUND MAY BE INEVITABLE

While many seem to believe that the Iran invasion has been successful and that Iran has no choice but to surrender, recent mid-east history should be a window into where this going. We can all remember Bush 2 declaring "mission accomplished" after a week of the Iraq war that lasted many months and years after that. 

So, Trump has declared that he will decide within 2 weeks how to proceed in this war, that he has now become at least part owner of all that is to come. The present decision is whether to bomb Iran's nuclear sites, a mission that will need to be accomplished by U.S. troops. This will then become a war with Iran and the U.S. with all the that goes with it. If this war is about ending Iran's nuclear program then he really has no choice in this decision. 

While the euphoria of Israel's success continues in the media, the fact remains that every night Iran is able to do some damage to Israel. The number of missiles incoming is declining, but the success percentage is increasing and many believe that Iran used many of its dummy and inferior missiles to deplete Israel's defenses. If this continues, Trump will be lobbied to come to the aid of Israel by U.S. direct military action. Israel has sustained over $500 billion in infrastructure damage, a lot for small country. At present, all filming is being restricted in an attempt to make much of this damage deniable.  Trump will be forced to come to the direct aid of Israel. It is also reported that many Israelis of means are exiting by any way possible, mostly by way of the Mediterranean by boat.

Again the stated goal is to destroy Iran's nuclear capability, it is being debated if this is even possible, even with the much touted bunker busting bombs.  If unsuccessful, only ground action will be able to accomplish this goal. 

While this is the stated goal, the goal really is the "Libyan Plan" a process of disarming Iran either by submission or military action then making Iran a wasteland similar to what has become of Libya, once the most prosperous country in Africa. This and the handing over to western interests its oil resources as reparations. Iran knows this and will not take that route.

Then there is the growing complications internationally. Pakistan and the 6 gulf countries has refused to grant its territory as bases or air for war against Iran. Many of those bases are being evacuated by the U.S. This will force the U.S. to take action by predictable paths making them more vulnerable.

China has now moved surveillance ships into the Persian gulf to assist Iran with surveillance and targeting information. It is also reported that Chinese planes are in the process of steady flights of unknown equipment into Iran. The Chinese and Egypt have also been communicating and some believe that Iran may strike the Suez canal to hinder traffic through the canal. Both the U.S. and Israel have been warned by Pakistan and Russia that the use of nuclear weapons by Israel or the U.S. will trigger a response. A long drawn out conflict will look like Ukraine in reverse.

No action by Trump may now be politically impossible and any action will result in an dramatic escalation with the loss of life and destruction increasing by many multiples. A typical trap that seems to be a pattern that has made war impossible to avoid.

While the U.S. engages in war, the rest of the world moves on.

 136 COUNTRIES MEET TO TALK ABOUT  ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND PROSPERITY

2025 ST. PETERSBURG INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC FORUM

Yesterday, most of the western world was watching the Iran war and the speculation concerning this war. It is concluded that the U.S. and Israel have complete control of the skies and can attack Iran anywhere at anytime. It is now expected that the U.S. will enter this conflict and use its sophisticated weapons to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. Yesterday Iran was only able to hit only 4 targets in Israel, it is expected that the worst is now over. 

It is still anticipated that the Iranian people, who are now enraptured with a new love for Israel and the United States, will soon complete the overthrow of the existing government and welcome back the descendants of the last Shah of Iran. We will have to see how all this works out.

In the meantime, Russia is hosting the 2025 St. Petersburg economic forum. It is being attended by 22,000 participants representing 136 countries. There are 193 nations that are members of the United Nations. While mentioning all this will most likely deserve the label of a Russian apologist or an anti-Israel advocate, I as an American believe the it is important for all Americans to see what is going on outside of the orchestrated media narrative.

I suppose all those 136 counties will soon be labeled enemies of the United States and rebels against the "rules based order". The reality is most of the world does not want to damage or destroy the United States, but it is mostly advocating a peaceful divorce from its abusive partner. While the United States continues to seek out dragons to slay, at an enormous cost and financed with borrowed money, the majority of the world is hoping for a new economic reality guided by mutual cooperation and prosperity. While they would like to do business with all of the world, they realize that may be far better off just confining their business with those that share their hope for mutual prosperity.

Yesterday during Tucker Carlson's interview with Ted Cruz, Cruz made it clear that the U.S. opposed Russia selling oil to the EU mostly because Russia was increasing their prosperity from the exchange. The fact that Europe was also prospering was irrelevant, Russian prosperity must be hindered in any way possible, very enlightening.  Even blowing up the joint Russian EU pipeline project was justified as long as it hindered Russia.

So now we see Russia selling their oil to the other parts of the world, the non important, and even Japan, who will now be a target of proposed senate sanctions.

If Americans could understand and observe that the last 30 years of regime change and a policy of death and destruction in an effort to sustain the unsustainable attempt to rule the world by threats, intimidation and war are a losing battle. A losing policy for the United States and if taken to its end result a losing battle for the world.

Trump, from peacemaker to Netanyahu clone.

 DIRE FUTURE FOR TRUMP AND ISRAEL

SHORT TERM EUPHORIA WILL BE SHORT LIVED

The combined forces of the U.S. and Israel can destroy Iran as a viable country, but unconditional surrender is very unlikely. We will most likely be in for years if not decades of conflict just in the middle east. Military victory will not secure peace, but most likely will add to the isolation of the U.S. and Israel for the foreseeable future.

While the long term goal of Netanyahu can be reached, the future of Israel as a viable country is in doubt. Will the population decline, as the young and talented leave? Will Israel have any stable economic relationships in the future? If Iran is eliminated, will it solve the Palestinian problem? Will the final solution for the Palestinians be the ultimate solution? Who will be the next enemy to be eliminated, Turkey or Egypt, whose populations are outraged? The hopes of the Abraham accords are dead, because emotion and lust for vengeance has overridden any rational policy.  

As for Trump, he has destroyed his credibility as a negotiator for peace and coexistence, his only alternative left will be brute force, just another extension of the last 30 years of foreign policy. The world now knows, that the objective is still submission or death and destruction. 

We can expect the fence sitters in the non western world, 80% of the world's population, to now understand the realities of the West, hoping to sustain their ultimate control of the planet. It will be submission, never coexistence and cooperation.

The opposition will avoid war at all costs, but the resistance will be subtle and earthshaking at the same time. A slow and steady degradation of economic and political power, the seeds which have been sown for decade by hubris, irresponsible economic policy and the failure to respect anyone, but their own desires for power. Time alone will allow the self destruction from within to become reality. A bigger defense budget will not insure survival.

The question is not the inevitable decline, but will the lashing out in despair take the world down, rather than accept that the past power is no longer sustainable. 

U.S. prepares to enter war.

 GLOBAL WAR RISK INTENSIFIES

END OF NEGOTIATIONS

The U.S. is rushing several carrier groups to the Persian gulf and aerial refueling planes are in route to Europe. It is clear that the U.S. is about to join in the destruction of Iran. While many cheer today, the repercussions are going to be long lasting and now lessen the chances of any negotiated settlement anywhere. It is now clear that the U.S. policy of death and destruction is alive and thriving. 

Yesterday, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, announced their neutrality and forbade the use of U.S.bases to be used for attacks on Iran. This will limit U.S. forces to operate from aircraft carriers and from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, hence the need for refueling planes. Whether they will be able to use airspace over Turkey is still not clear.

At present, there are 3 tankers burning near the straits of Hormuz after collisions and there are multiple reports of navigational GPS signals being scrambled.

The U.S. state department has cancelled furthur diplomatic talks with Russia.

Israel has blocked live videos for Haifa and other sites. 

The introduction of assassination of political leaders and professors and civilian scientists is now to become much more common, as this precedent has now been put in motion. No country will now be immune for such attacks.

We can now expect that China will restrict the export of all critical materials to western countries. This may also be spread to other suppliers of critical materials. It will be done quietly, but it can be expected. The cessation of trade from China may become a real possibility. We may soon find out who is dependent on Chinese trade.

There may be massive liquidation of U.S. treasury's. 

One would expect that Russia will be on high alert for a preemptive strike by western powers and visa-versa, the chance of nuclear confrontation is now at the highest level in history. We are now entering the uncharted waters of who will want to use a pre-emptive strike first.

The world is on the edge of catastrophe and it seems there is no turning back.