Trump's economic plan.

 THERE REALLY IS A PLAN

NAVIGATING THROUGH OPPOSITION AND GLOBAL POLITICS

I recently watched a speech by Jim Rickards, a well know investment analyst and commentator, which was given at Hillsdale college. He articulated an outline of the Trump administrations economic policy. While only a basic outline, it indicates that this is the plan that will be attempted by the this administration. 

Relaying this information by myself, is not an endorsement, but just an attempt to understand what is happening, concerning economic policy.

The primary long term goal is to move the nation to economic self reliance and reduce dependence on foreign imports. This will translate to increasing jobs at home, particularly manufacturing jobs. 

The first thing Rickards pointed out is the reduction in the price of oil and gas. If successful in reducing the cost of energy, it will eventually help to reduce the cost of all goods, as they are all highly based on energy costs, this applies to all goods, agricultural costs and transportation. There seems to be some progress in this.

The next big problem is the debt and deficits which may be the biggest threat to the nations future. The debt is now 123% of the Gross Domestic product a unsustainable number. The plan is to control increased spending and increase revenues, he emphasized that any dramatic cuts in spending or increase in taxes will lead to reduced economic activity. It is hoped that a combination of tariffs and increased investment to manufacture in America will hopefully bring that about. Tariffs will not be implemented on companies that build plants in the U.S. as an incentive. There is some indication that there is some progress in that area. The hoped for result is not necessarily a reduction of the debt but a reduction of the debt to GDP ratio to 121% in the first year. It is hoped that this progress will become more each year to bring the ratio down to an acceptable ratio without damaging economic activity.

It seems it is a long term plan to control spending and increase revenues by increased economic activity. 

While of course this is a very brief outline of the plan, my observation is that Tariff's, while a good bargaining tool to address abuses in trade policy by partners, as in Trump's first term, seemed to be productive. I also believe the idea of a flat 10% tariff on all imports could be effective, particularly if that revenue or at least the majority of it is designated for infrastructure improvement, ports, rail lines and interstate highways all a cost of moving imported goods.

The move to use tariff's as punishment's for political purposes undermines this strategy. The U.S. Senate has passed a resolution to impose massive tariffs on nations that trade with Russia. I expect this effort will cause more flight away from America and undermine any effort to use tariffs to increase revenue.

While it it is obvious that increase in taxes or dramatic cuts to domestic spending can cause a decrease in economic activity, there is no reason not to cut any spending in foreign counties, including the reduction of the 750 military bases and foreign aid and military hardware to numerous countries. Cuts to foreign spending will not negatively effect the domestic economy.

A reevaluation of the foreign policy of the last 30 years may be the answer to solving the long term economic problems, while it seems we are reducing the aid to Ukraine, we are still sending many $100's of billions out of the country in aid, military hardware and intervention schemes not to mention financial lubrication of foreign leaders in an effort to continue political support for these schemes. 

I suspect that there is tremendous pressure by many factions to keep the funds flowing and funds spent overseas seem to be the easiest to launder, often back to parties here in the U.S. Sadly I am not optimistic that any effort to right this ship by Trump or anyone else can be successful. Far too may are now addicted to federal money. 

Is Venezuela vs U.S. = to Ukraine vs Russia.

 LIVING LESSONS IN GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICT

MADURO SHIFTS FROM ACCOMMODATION TO DEFIENCE

The situation in the Caribbean is intensifying with the seizure of an oil tanker in  International waters. At the same time we see the rhetoric coming out of Venezuela shifting from attempts to defuse the situation to open defiance and possibly baiting Trump to attack. We have also heard of U.S. military aircraft flying into Venezuela airspace possibly hoping for some sort of challenge by Venezuela. It can be expected that Venezuela will not take the bait to engage the U.S. unless directly attacked.

Maduro's shift can be explained by the reality that there is no accommodation with the U.S. and he will die no matter what position he takes. This may have resulted in his now using the situation to picture Venezuela as the small defenseless nation being bullied by the oppressive U.S.. It is a message that will be positively received in much of Central and South America. It will be magnified by all those who will see an opportunity to cause condemnations of the U.S. 

A continued blockade will be showcased by the starving and suffering people of Venezuela, who undoubtedly will be pictured as the victims in this standoff. It will be very counterproductive, to the hoped for, Monroe 2 doctrine.

An attack will be welcomed by Venezuela's geopolitical supporters who will see this as a payback for the Ukraine project and challenges in the South China sea. A prolonged conflict in Venezuela will be an economic and political disaster for the U.S. 

It can be expected that material support will be provided by both China and Russia and the mountains and jungles of Venezuela are not the deserts of the middle east. It is estimated that both Columbia and Brazil have tens of thousands of rebel military groups that would come to the aid of Venezuela. Any prolonged conflict in this very large country would not be something that the U.S. is not in a position to sustain.

We can now assume this crisis is not about drug running or terrorist activity, it is about China's investment in the oil resources of Venezuela, it has invested in infrastructure  and even an offshore drilling rigs. It has provided a steady market for sanctioned Venezuelan oil. The U.S. considers its sanctions to be enforceable as international law. That premise is being challenged in many places, but in the Caribbean it is a very red flag to Washington, similar as, Ukraine in NATO, is a red flag to Moscow.

Some believe that the hope of obtaining access to Venezuelan oil is in direct relationship for the eventual war and overthrow of the government of Iran. At present a war with Iran will result in a catastrophic oil crisis within days. An ability to offset that with Venezuelan oil would provide oil for the western world and at the same time cut off oil supplies to China from both Iran and Venezuela. Understanding this, makes it clear that this is developing into a geopolitical standoff that can become very dangerous very quickly.

We can expect that Trump will be savaged by his political opposition and those who desire to sustain their power and control, no matter the direction this takes.

There is also one other possibility about this, could it be a show, to particularly the American electorate, that continued great power conflict can only result in disaster for everyone.  Must the world be on the edge of the precipice before the majority accept a new era of international order, based on cooperation rather than confrontation?

Economic realties shaping new global order.

 IRREVERSABLE SHIFT UNDERWAY

HOPE FOR MANAGED ACCEPTANCE

This week we see the U.S. set out to insure dominance over the western Hemisphere. This new focus is being caused by the realization that the U.S. can no longer dictate economic and political policies to the world. While there are many who would like to continue that ability, it is on an irreversible path to coming to an end. Attempting to force or intimidate others will only speed up that shift and isolate the U.S. in the future.

We have watched as Trump has attempted to continue that U.S. ability to require adherence with sanctions  and even punishing tariffs. In this hemisphere he is threatening regime change and military punishment. We can assume that there are factions advising everything from increased economic and political pressure to outright war, all will not stop the global shift underway.

We have watched as India openly refused to end oil purchases from Russia and then signed over 20 economic agreements with Russia. Looking at the map, we see they are neighbors, Russia has the resources that India needs and has had respectful and cooperative relations for decades. Threatening economic relations by the United States as compared to the growing economic opportunity in BRICS is a no brainer for India. They cannot damage their economic future for a tentative access to U.S. markets. This reality is materializing most everywhere.

Recently Japan was pressured by the United States to cut off some selective machine tools to China, this resulted in billions of dollars of canceled contracts by China. Those orders were then picked up by Russia and may never return to Japan. The U.S. then pressured Japan to stop buying oil from Russia, the new conservative president did not hesitate in saying, NO. With gulf oil supplies increasingly vulnerable, it will not commit economic suicide, even if it risks access to U.S. markets.

We can expect that this scene is going to be repeated in South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan and even Australia. These countries are all neighbors with China and Russia and a cooperative economic reality is essential to their future. China is the dominant trading partner with all of them and contrary to western narrative, they are not feeling militarily threated by China. 

The same is also true in Africa, were many are throwing off the last remnants of European colonialism in exchange for mutually advantageous economic development and prosperity. 

While the U.S. may attempt to force adherence in the western Hemisphere it will  not be any easy ride. Brazil is committed to economic trade with the BRICS and there is a lot of fence sitters watching what is happening all around the world. More false and disrespectful moves by the U.S. to force control, will likely cause them to move away from the U.S., both politically and economically.

Internally we watched as the fed lowered interest rates, as many hoped, at the same time in reaction, Gold moved to $4325 and silver to $64.10 a symptom of an increase flow out of dollars into metals, in expectation of a further decline in the buying power of the dollar. This is also going to relate to a further hard sell for the increasing U.S. debt, 

While most Americans pay little attention to the dismal situation that the U.S. is in, the rest of the world, adversaries and trading partners, do understand that hard times are in the works.

While many would like to blame Trump for this situation it is an accumulated reality caused by decades of corruption and mismanagement, it will not be saved by any single administration. There is no painless playbook, there is no magic formula, it is a whole spectrum of crisis all converging at once.

I believe the least effective way of dealing with all this is by threats, bluster and intimidation, those tactics no longer work and are counterproductive. The United States can adjust to the new economic realities and even prosper, it will not be painless, but doable. It will need to stop the anti-everybody propaganda and realize the United States does sit in a very secure position with vast oceans all around. Most of the world does not wish the country harm, but does desire a new economic and political reality that respects national sovereignty. 

For the U.S. to be successful it will need to be united. Is that possible or will it be whipsawed by some sort of reaction to more authoritarian and socialist economic policy, similar to what is happening in the EU, that will really put a fork in the great American experiment.

 

Escalation in Venezuela, China fear root cause.

 CONTAINING CHINA IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE

RETALIATION INCOMING

The embargo of Venezuelan oil is now a reality, with the U.S. seizure of an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan oil in the Caribbean. It is now becoming more clear that the Venezuelan crisis is more about Chinese investments in the Caribbean than drugs or other supposed issues. 

Venezuelan oil requires special refineries and the only refinery that handled that oil is in Houston, Texas. That is why after the sanctions levied against Venezuela their oil output dropped dramatically, that was until China and India began buying Venezuelan oil and refining it in their refineries. Then China eventually invested in a cooperative agreement with Venezuela and built a refinery in Venezuela, a cooperative effort that benefited China and Venezuela. That, coupled with Chinese investments in Bahamian ports and other port facilities in the Caribbean has raised red flags in Washington, especially with the Monroe 2 doctrine attempting to limit others investing in the Western Hemisphere.

It could be pointed out that the U.S., rather than tilting a windmills around the world, could have been investing in cooperative agreement in the Caribbean for decades, but chose to engage in intimidation and sanctions rather than cooperative agreements.  Obviously there is need and a void of investment that is now being filled by those who have the investment capital. I suspect that much of the investment capital in the U.S. is tied up servicing its massive and increasing debt.

This seizure is going to have repercussions around the world, much like the seizure of Russian assets in 2022. We can now expect others, not only in South America, to increase their liquidation of U.S. debt and flee to alliances with those we hope to contain. We can expect that the repercussions may grow into a very costly and dangerous result. 

 

21st. Century strategies: Strategic patience and Attrition.

 OBTAINING OBJECTIVES WITHOUT ALL OUT WAR

STRATEGIES USED, BOTH ECONOMICALLY AND MILITARILY

We are now seeing the results of strategies that may be unique to the 21st Century, whether through necessity or planned strategies for long term results.

While it is always unpopular to quote hated adversaries, one must remember the admonitions of Osama Bin Laden who often repeated, but the west largely dismissed and ignored, public videos warning the U.S. and the west that their goal was the exit of western powers from the region. They promised that they would bleed the west into a realization of that objective, his warnings culminated in the 911 attack on the U.S.. Most would say that this attack was the objective, but the real objective was to bait the U.S. into a emotional response that resulted in the expenditure of near $10 trillion, the disruption of the entire European region through immigration, the repulsion of much of the U.S. electorate for more war and a massive increase in debt, always what precedes the fall of all empires.

Most considered Bin Laden a foolish and unsophisticated Arab running around the mountains in sandals and a AK., it is obvious to the objective observer that he has largely succeeded in his predictions. Afghanistan is now ruled by the same actors as pre 911, Iraq and Syria will soon be devoid of western troops. The U.S., by any objective standard, is bankrupt and western Europe is on the verge of economic and political collapse. While not having the military power to take on the west, he was able to understand the hubris and expected emotional response that would lead to self destruction.

One must wonder if Hamas, with little real power, did not take a lesson in Bin Laden strategy, understanding the polices and emotions of their enemy. Is Israel now in a better position than before the Hamas attack?

All this also requires strategic patience, after all, bin Laden is dead, as is many of Hamas, and decades have passed, but the result is now becoming obvious.

We see some of the same strategies used by the Russian federation. Intelligence portrayed Russia as weak and unable to withstand a unified coalition backing Ukraine, to bring about regime change and dismemberment. The strategists knew Russia could never accept Ukraine in NATO. Understanding this, they hoped Russia would react and roll deep into Ukraine, were they would be vulnerable to insurgent predation. This coupled with economic strangulation would soon bring down Russia. While Russia initially made a show of force to encourage negotiations, as soon as they realized there would not be negotiations, they wiredrew into defensive positions. Positions close to their homeland, easy logistic support, and a flexible line that would withdraw if needed, but then continue in a policy of attrition. Attrition of western equipment and Ukrainian manpower all the while discouraging the introduction of NATO troops, that would need to move men and materials 800 miles to the combat line.

They never took out the bridges and rail lines, intentionally allowing all this material to move east, where it inevitably would be destroyed. Attrition, not dramatic, not shock and awe, coupled with strategic patience has worn down the material capabilities of the west and by their own strategy of not buying Russian energy is now emaciating their manufacturing base and causing many of their citizens to turn to burning wood to stay warm this winter. Western Europe is now likely in the most vulnerable situation it has been in since WW2.

The Russian strategists had to swallow hard after attacks on their homeland and their strategic bombers, and even revolt among some at home to escalate and go to all out war. Their strategic patience was viewed by their adversaries as weakness and incompetence and we still hear that narrative today.  Then one must ask, is the west stronger today than in 2014 when this started? Is western Europe stronger economically and politically? Are they really capable of going to war with Russia?

New U.S. foreign policy strategy underway?

 ATTACK ON VENEZUELA MAY NOT BE NECESSARY

GLOBAL SPHERES OF INFLUNECE MATERILIZING

It is now appearing that the new U.S. strategy is underway, it is not up for debate. It seems that the U.S. has decided it cannot control the world, but hopes to control the western Hemisphere. Venezuela and the fleet that is currently there is an indication of this strategy. It is likely an agreement with Russia has already been made to withdraw from at least the Caribbean in exchange for the U.S. deciding that the Ukraine project is now a loser for the U.S. It does have the power to strangle Venezuela into submission, especially if its other options decide it is in their best interest to move on.

While the Caribbean may be an easy area for the U.S. to control, Brazil, a founding member of BRICS, probably will be another matter. We can assume that the U.S. can control all of North America, Central America and the Caribbean area, by the threat of military power. It may be able to coax much of South America by a combination of real diplomacy, respect and mutual cooperative economic prosperity. The question will be, can the U.S. engage in such a policy over an extended time. 

It is appearing that the Middle east strategy of the past that cost the U.S. near $10 Trillion and many lives, both our own and those of the region, is coming to an end. It has already been announced that U.S. troops are leaving Syria and one can expect the same will soon happen in Iraq. It is hoped that influence can be maintained by diplomacy and mutual cooperation, we will see if that is possible.

It is being acknowledged that the U.S. cannot contain China by economic means and military conflict is a gamble at best. China this week set an all time record of a $1 Trillion trade surplus with its trading partners. The U.S. has realized how dependent it has become on Chinese goods in most every sector. 

A key to the evolving spheres of influence can be indicated by a world map, something anyone who is interested should have. It can be predicted that the long term history of alliances and trading partners is reemerging as the impossible task of world domination by any one power comes to an end.

One might expect to see troop and base closings in more areas as the U.S. has over 750 bases around the world, more than can be afforded.

We are going to hear and watch as the accusations of surrender, treason and other allegations can soon be expected, but the reality is the big threat to the U.S. is not China or Russia, but an escalating debt and an unsustainable baked in fiscal policy coupled with an economy based on financial transactions rather than wealth producing manufacturing. It may take decades of unified discipline to turn this all around. The real challenge to the U.S. is mostly all at home.

U.S. proposes new National security strategy.

 OPENING TO NEW GLOBAL ORDER?

REALIZING THE NEW REALITIES?

Last week we witnessed a 30 page document that seems to indicate the Trump administration's opening attempt to bring about discussion and dialogue to a new view of the world order that has existed for the last 80 years. While only a sketchy outline, it does indicate a willingness to embrace the realities of a changing world and the limitations of Washington's position in the world.

It embraces the need for an end to the Ukraine conflict as being important to be able to address other very important issues. It essentially dismisses Europe as being now on a path of irreversible decline. It hints at a new upgraded Monroe doctrine for Washington's relations with the western Hemisphere. It is willing to downplay China's threats to an economic competitor. It also notes the dangers to any changes threatened by entrenched bureaucracies or "deep state " in the west. It is obviously a proposal for negotiation and dialogue, not an executive order.

Concerning Russia and it relationship with the west it admits NATO expansion is now to be reconsidered and may even coincide with Putin's often talked of  "new security architecture" to avoid big power conflict. One can expect that those lengthy meeting in Moscow are indeed talking about more than Ukraine. Some speculate that besides the trash talking with China there are other more serious talks ongoing.

While we can expect that we will soon hear about Trump's weakness in facing challenges from our adversaries and possibly a move by many to force him out, rather than embrace any changes in the U.S. foreign policy, the changes happening will not be ended or possibly even be delayed. Real  military confrontation is not desired by anyone, and these changes can be diplomatically embraced with a new spirit of cooperation and realizing the limitations now becoming a reality.

While many will say we need a new president and a tough stance to the world, the reality is the United States hegemony is quickly eroding and no new personnel will change that fact.

It is indeed a difficult period that, if to be successful, will require some bi-partisan cooperation to engage in a debate and negotiation balancing the best interests of the country with the realities tied to the massive debt and deficits which are now unsustainable and have eroded the economic and inevitably the military power of the United States. 

Political trash talkers, global rearmament.

 TALKING TOUGH, GOOD FOR ARMS BUSINESS

MANY SHOULD BE FIRED FOR LOOSE TALK

It is now almost a daily occurrence that some government leader or official makes threats of war. In most case it is trash talk, in an attempt to appear tough or decisive, it usually results in increased war preparation and worse diplomatic relations between all involved. We have many examples, George Bush 2 in his infamous declaration about the "Axis of evil" describing Iran, Iraq, and North Korea. At that time they had little cooperation or any real connection to each other. This statement was directly followed by the invasion of Iraq and the move by Iran and North Korea to obtain a nuclear deterrent. North Korea has since become a nuclear power, but Iran has decided it was not the direction they wanted to go, but the trash talking continues and it is wonder that they have not become a nuclear power. They have since become more cooperative with each other.

Then of course there is the Russia/Ukraine situation, U.S. trash talkers run their mouths off contumely, demonizing Russia, boasting about killing Russians and encouraging Ukraine that they can prevail over Russia.  A disaster for Ukraine and a massive rearmament of Russia and NATO. This week we heard an Italian leader of NATO suggest that NATO should consider a pre-emptive strike on Russia, we can only assume he meant a nuclear strike.  Russia's response was clear and then also caused more trashing talking about Russia's aggression. We could only expect that Russia will push to shorten the time needed to respond to any such provocation. We also had a U.S. general in NATO brag that NATO could take over Kaliningrad, a Russian parcel in the Baltic, in days. He didn't mention what would happen after that. Both these high ranking bull shitters should have been fired immediately.

We can also remember a pacific operations U.S. air force general that predicted we would be at war with China by 2025. Then we complained and were astonished by a huge increase in Chinese military preparations. This guy should have been fired immediately.

Today, it's now South America were military preparedness is being increased by nations in the region often with the purchase of advanced weapons from Russia and China. Much of this trash talk is coming from the administration and the consequences will be an increase, if that is possible, in distrust of all things U.S.

While the long term diplomatic consequences are still unknown we can expect none of this talk produces a positive result. Of course, it will increase the debt of many of these nations and will be good for arms manufacturers, maybe that is what it is all about anyway.

Eu miffed at U.S. Ukraine position.

 TRUMP IS EXITING UKRIANE CONFLICT

NATO NO LONGER HAS A PLAN

It seems clear that the results of the 5 hour meeting in Moscow between Putin and Trump's negotiators has infuriated NATO. We can only assume that NATO now understands that Trump is distancing the U.S. from this conflict. It is understandable that having committed to the U.S. Ukraine project they are now in the position of dealing with the consequences. While many will blame Trump, the reality is that this conflict is now going poorly for all involved. Ukrainians are dying in massive numbers, the economies of western Europe can only decline without access to Russian energy and the U.S. is attempting to deal with a massive debt with its possible severe economic crisis. Russia is of course also suffering, but this is an existential threat to their survival and will not compromise on their objectives.

They have the choice of sucking it up, putting their hubris under a blanket and moving on or go to war with Russia. It is an easy choice, if you face the choices objectively and rationally. There are lots of players who still refuse to move on.

The U.S. is beginning to realize that the era of Pax Americana is coming to a close. We have squandered our sound dollar, our manufacturing base and are now left with a massive debt and deficits as far as the eye can see. Cutting spending like the proposals of Musk and DOGE will result in reduced economic activity, as much of the new economy is dependent on Government spending. Raising taxes while seemingly easy will also result in reduced activity and possibly a flight of capital out of the country. There is no EASY solution and the sooner that the U.S. realizes it cannot get past this with threats, intimidation and war, the sooner the country can adjust to the new reality of a changed world.

The whole focus of the Federal Reserve and the federal government will soon be to figure out how to service the debt and interest payments and avoid some sort of default or massive inflation. 

The U.S. cannot bring manufacturing back quickly, nor remedy decades of irresponsible financial policy.  It is going to be painful and extended and we will need the good will of our allies and competitors, whose best interest is to have the U.S. make a successful transition. We could probably get more cooperation from our adversaries than we will get from domestic political opportunists.

Sovereign debt at root of desire for war.

 IT WILL COLLAPSE WHEN THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH BUYERS FOR THIS DEBT

FINANCIAL COMPETITION WILL LEAVE THE WEST BEHIND

We continually hear of European nations planning for war, from talk of increasing their military numbers and spending more money on weapons. All this talk when their biggest problem is providing the services promised to their citizens, and finding buyers of their debt.  They are now talking of currency controls from outlawing cash transactions and forcing registration of  holders of gold and silver. At the same time metals are fleeing the continent for other places around the world. It is expected that  their plan to go to a Central Bank digital currency will accelerate the flight of assets out of the EU. EU nations are even encouraging the rearmament of Germany, something at one time would have been considered a bad idea.

Japan now admits that it central bank is the majority holder of its debt. Japan's debt is now over 200% of GDP. the highest in the world. At the same time it is being encouraged to rearm in an attempt to insure its position in relation to China.

The United States debt continues to rise at unsustainable rates, but still has the advantage of more financial freedom and while devaluing its dollar in 1933 and 1971 and a continuing devaluation by deficit spending and inflation has never completely ended it currency for something else, any attempt to introduce a CBDC or some other currency will result in a massive reaction. Quantitative easing and other fancy sounding names for Central bank purchasing its own debt is a indication that trouble is brewing.

Some assume that if there was not an alternative, all this spending and debt could go on indefinitely, but empires have historically ended when they could no longer repay their debt. Today there are alternatives rising with countries with little or manageable debt benefiting by the shift of assets into their countries. This includes China, Russia and much of Asian countries with high manufacturing and resource production, which creates wealth. 

While previous wars often put to work idle or underutilized manufacturing by countries expanding their debt, it is no longer the same situation. It may be difficult to expand an already massive debt, so one could expect efforts to raise taxes and expropriate assets from its citizens. It will result in a reaction and one can expect it difficult to rally national sacrifice to enable governments that no longer have the trust of their citizenry. This and the real ability to ramp up military production may make actually prevailing in an extended war very difficult. 

Possibly only a replacement of the current leadership in the EU and a new focus by the U.S., can prevent conflict and a transition to a peaceful co-existence.

It is in Russia's best interest to slow walk end of war.

 EU AND UKRAINE NOT READY FOR LASTING AGREEMENT

RUSSIA OWNS THE CLOCK

While we see Trump and the U.S. hoping to negotiate an imminent end to the Ukraine conflict, others are still not ready for a lasting settlement. We should expect this conflict to continue far into 2026. 

Trump is till battling the naysayers in the U.S. who still can't comprehend that Ukraine has lost and that as time goes by they will have little leverage for negotiation.

We still have those in the EU, with military forces that cannot in reality come to the aid of Ukraine and economies declining by the day. still talking of war, preparation for war and even pre-emptive strikes on Russia.

In Ukraine, Zelensky is becoming a lame duck that may not have the ability to negotiate an end to this conflict, there still ae many who want to fight on. Ukraine should be in the process of preparing for elections, it would give any possible negotiation more credibility. The problem is that most opposition have been exiled, imprisoned or worse and it would take many months to actually have an election.

Russia has been clear as to what is needed for lasting peace and the opposition is still not ready to accept defeat or any compromise. The EU and Ukraine have hopes of winning the peace by preparing for more war in the future. This reality will prevent any end to this conflict in the near future.

I suspect that Trump understands that an end to the Ukraine conflict would open up may possibilities for peace in other areas. It would allow Russia and China to cooperate in exerting strong influence on Iran to begin the process of lasting peace in that area. Again there are forces who do not want peace in that region. 

The reality is the western European countries are moving into a period of volatile economic, and social uncertainty, which will make them less likely to be able to wage war on Russia. Ukraine is physically exhausted and its supporters are near exhaustion, economically and in there ability to supply weaponry, They all have serious domestic political problems at home. Again, Russia owns the clock and the longer it keeps ticking the less likely of war against Russia. While Russia has suffered greatly from this conflict, it is in their best interest for its opponents to to decline until they are ready for a lasting peace agreement.

U.S. can't afford war anywhere.

 WAR WILL BE END OF TRUMP'S HOPES

DOMESTIC ISSUES BIGGEST THREAT

While it seems Trump has put Ukraine off of his priority list and also realizes that war with Iran will most likely cause a severe disruption of oil prices or worse, he is now in a lose, lose situation in Venezuela. Has he finally been trapped by those who desire an end to his presidency? I suspect it is a long list of those who hope that Trump fails, maybe even some in his administration.

The economic realities of deficits, debt and diminished manufacturing capacity are the biggest threats to the United States, that and the desire to keep the corrupt gravy train going as long as possible. The United States and Trump cannot afford war anywhere, it will trigger a far greater economic crisis that is brewing and smoldering, just waiting for such a match to blow it all up.

Now Trump has listened to his foreign policy geniuses who has assured him that threats and intimidation will send Maduro packing and that Venezuela is hoping to embrace him with waiting arms if he just squeezes them a little more. It is a familiar story that we have heard about Iraq, Syria and of course Russia, a repeated story that has cost the U.S. trillions and  involved millions of deaths. 

Now it seems Trump is sort of boxed in, just what his enemies want, attack Venezuela and set off an economic tsunami or back off and look weak and indecisive. It may be too late to expect Venezuela to save the day by some sort of negotiation and a narrative of victory. Time is running out for Trump to either pull the trigger on Venezuela and risk economic ruin or back off and focus on things where he has the power to make some positive gains.

He may be forced to show a little humility, a hard nut for Trump to swallow.

There is no savior of the country on the horizon.

 BETTER TO HOPE FOR THE BEST WITH WHAT YOU HAVE

COUNTRIES PROBLEMS CANNOT BE CURED BY ANY ONE MAN

It is now still 2025 and we see speculation on who is going to save the country in 2028. No man, is going to save this country from itself. There is no magic candidate, no reversal of present policies will save us. Most hope to just continue on the unsustainable path we are on, hoping to keep the things going, at least till they are done breathing.

Before we get to 2028, it will be made clear that the economic policies of many decades have led into a crisis with no magic way out. By 2028 we will see that we can no longer intimidate the rest of the world to submit to our desires or mandates. By 2028 we will find that we can no longer provide the benefits promised by many decades of selling votes for promises. In reality, all that is happening right now, if willing to see the situation, in a clear objective light.

So, forget about 2028, while Trump has been handed a plate with a myriad of insoluble problems, it will only be far worse for anyone who should want the job in 2028. Maybe only the delusional will even want the job in 2028.

I suspect that time is running out and 3 more years without any progress, inflamed by partisan lust for power, will lead to a situation of survival after the collapse caused by decades of failed policies.

A better plan would be to do the best that we can, with what we have, while often not what many would like, it is the only thing we have for the time we have left. Time that is ticking away. I hear lots of criticism, but I hear few solutions, because it is easier to blame others for insoluble problems, than to offer real solutions, especially when there are no painless solutions to be had.

Thanksgiving, truly an American holiday.

 STILL RELEVANT AFTER ALL THESE YEARS

WE ALL HAVE MUCH TO BE THANKFUL FOR

Another thanksgiving, for some the only time that family is all together and no matter the peril being experienced by some, we can all find many reasons to be thankful. It is a time to take a pause and count the blessing we have all experienced.

While the country may have many challenges in the near future, for now, we are all blessed to live in these United States. We can still worship as we are led, we can still pursue our dreams and hopes for the future. We have the ability to speak our mind as no where else on earth. We have all been blessed, probably more than we deserve.

As in the tradition of those who really had the reason to be thankful for their survival, we can in some way be empathic to understand how they understood to  offer up thanks.

For all Americans and also all our brothers and sisters around the world,  give a little prayer of thanksgiving for those blessings you have received, no matter how small.

Economic Strangulation goal in Venezuela.

 NAVAL BLOCADE, SANCTIONS AND TARIFF'S

$10 MILLION A DAY COST TO U.S.

While military attack may not be on the menu, unless Venezuela can be provoked into retaliation, economic death seems to be the goal. With an armada of warships discouraging ships from servicing the country and tariffs on anyone who does business with Venezuela, it may be a very hard future for the people of Venezuela.

With the excuse of labeling the country both a drug cartel operation and now a terrorist organization, I suppose we are all to demand the end of the government of Venezuela. This is nothing more than a warmed up John Bolton plan from the first Trump administration. It is obvious that the originators of the Bolton plan are still working within this administration.

The original Monroe Doctrine was meant to keep European influence out of the western Hemisphere, with the acknowledgment that the U.S. would stay out of European disputes. It was later modified by Theodore Roosevelt into "Speak softly and carry a big Stick" Now we have mostly given up on the soft speaking in our relations with others, in this hemisphere, as well with the rest of the world.

While, maybe, military action is not the goal, death and destruction by economic strangulation will still be the result. While residents of Washington and Wall street can rejoice at their win with the accompanying access to a largess of resources, I suspect the people of Venezuela will most likely not be better off. 

If this continues, and now may be irreversible, we can expect a new forced migration in the region, hostility from any country now effected or fearing they will be next. It will further add to decline of the image of the U.S. around the world.

One must wonder if this is now the alternative prize with the least risk by Washington after failing in Ukraine and deeming war with Iran too risky. It is like a predator choosing the victim who has been weakened by years of deprivation and is now an easy kill.

Perot & Buchanan's prophetic 1992 presidential campaign.

  REVILED AT THE TIME, THEY WERE RIGHT

TRADE AND DEBT WERE THE WARNINGS

The 1992 U.S. presidential campaign was a prophetic warning for the nation. In the Republican primary, Pat Buchannan warned of trade deals that would hollow out the U.S. economy, destroy the manufacturing base and pressure the middle class. He predicted what would later materialize and provide Donald Trump with some of the main issues in his campaign. He also warned about unlimited and lax immigration enforcement. After a strong challenge in New Hampshire, he was assaulted with  overwhelming accusations of racism and anti-Semitism. George Bush won the primary 72% to 23%. Bush 's popularity was weakened by his former pledge of " No new Taxes" which he quickly broke and his boasting of some kind of "NEW world Order" which raised alarm bells in some circles. Was this onset of the lone remaining super power ideology and endless war?

In the general election, Ross Perot, a Texas businessman,  ran as an independent, Bill Clinton was the Democrat and Bush. Perot was surprisingly very competitive, even rising to the top the of polls at one point. It was an indication of the growing discontent with the candidates from the entrenched parties. Perot was famous for his description and prediction of the "giant sucking sound" of jobs leaving the nation. He also was hoping to pay off the debt and stop deficit spending. When it seemed that Perot could actually win, he suddenly withdrew from the race claiming that his daughters life had been threatened, something that seemed outrageous at the time, but certainty not by today's standards.

While Perot reentered the race, his momentum had stalled and he ended with winning 18% of the vote, Clinton 43% and Bush 37%. some accused Perot of throwing the election to Clinton by his candidacy, but it seemed he was very sincere in hoping to move the nation in a new direction. 

Both Buchanan's and Perot's analysis of the direction of the country was very accurate, maybe they were just too far before their time and it was in an era were the media was of one mind and no alternative available. 

Clinton went on to approve NAFTA and GAAT that globalized trade and contributed to the decimation of the U.S. manufacturing ability. He pretty much did the same things that one could have predicted from Bush, regime change war in Yugoslavia, NATO expansion, and the policy of U.S. power expansion in the name of expanding democracy. He did cooperate with the opposition party to nearly erase the budget deficit and reform welfare, but in trade and foreign affairs he was like many, probably not in control of the ship.  

While Trump capitalized on the crisis of immigration, loss of manufacturing and regime change wars whose seeds were formed at the time of the 1992 election, it has now all blossomed into a myriad of problems that under the best circumstances will take decades to correct.

West on Ukraine: Out of sticks, and have no carrots.

 COMPROMISE OR GO TO WAR

TIME TO SUCK IT UP AND MOVE ON

We now have a 28 point peace plan, one that the West wants to negotiate and Russia will express interest, while devastating what remains of Ukraine's army. The reality is that NATO expansion has failed and any attempts to declare victory in defeat is just going to add to the costs. While many are looking for ways to declare victory, it will be a hard sell.  

While Russia has suffered greatly from this conflict, its suffering does have an expiration, when this conflict ends. One can expect the suffering in Eurozone will not expire but continue to decline into unpredictable internal problems. The entire west is suffering from unsustainable debt and deficits far into the future. Then in the Eurozone there is the inability to fuel their economies in a competitive way. Their green policies have devastated their economies and their savior, cheap Russian energy, may never come back. Then there is their massive immigrant problem that will be compounded by those same problems.

As for Russia, it has been able to forge new economic and even military alliances due to the wests obvious attempt to punish everyone who has either sided with Russia or even attempted to remain neutral. The political and economic damage will last for decades. Russia's position in the rest of the world has been enhanced and the BRICS economic union will thrive far into the future.

While the West has used up most of its sticks, except for outright war, which would be even a worse disaster, its attempts of offering carrots are now, too little, too late. Russia, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, hoped to become an equal economic partner in the global economic system. It was at first subtly rejected and then transparently rejected and offered the choice of submission or destruction. 

At this point, Russia understands that there will not be any cooperation, just a temporary peace until another opportunity for destruction is available. Offers of increased trade with the United States and a seat in the G7 are all without much attraction. There is now a better and more reliable economic union on the horizon and it will not be discarded for some fake offers of entry as a partner in the existing economic order as a inferior partner.

While the global south and most of Asia now have high hopes of a new economic order, it hopes to co-exist with the present system, much as one would with an ex-spouse, tolerance and accommodation when possible, an end to hostility, but mostly just a hope to keep it all at arms length.

Trump only has one more war to avoid.

 ONLY VENEZUELA IS STILL IMMINENT

PRESSURE TO PULL TRIGGER WILL BE MASSIVE

The pressure to go to war has been intense for the last 10 months, so far, Trump has avoided getting the U.S. into a major war. While we all witnessed the strike on Iran, many still believe it was a way to end the pressure by declaring victory. At present, the possibility of war with Iran by the United States or even Israel is much less. The ceasefire in Gaza, no matter how meaningless, is still a political reason to avoid war with Iran and Iran is now prepared in such a way that such a conflict could be disaster for Israel.

It is clear, that the United States is disengaging from the Ukraine conflict. While the EU countries still talk of entering the war, they will not, without the support of the U.S.. The latest peace plan, while a step to satisficing many of Russia's conditions, will not be, or can be, supported by Zelensky, as long the the hard right has the power to stop any peace plan. With the government is in disarray due to corruption revelations, Zelensky will most likely need to be replaced for any serious effort to stop this war. While Russia has not offered a position on the plan, they understand that Ukraine will  not accept any plan that gives up territory and saves them from rejecting the plan. Russia wants an end that will result in long term peace and security and that requires a WW2 type of ending.

Then there is Venezuela, this may be, at least for now, a situation that Trump needs an exit opportunity. One can speculate that his advisers have assured him that the threat of military force will pressure Maduro to flee or for the internal opposition to stage a coup. While there is opposition to Maduro, and many claims of voter fraud, it is still a 50/50 situation with the population, much like the United States. An attack will most likely rally support, giving Maduro a plurality and could be a disaster for Trump. Just what Trump's opposition dream of. 

Venezuela has rallied its military and other supporters, possibly enhanced it's air defenses with Russian anti-aircraft equipment and if started, will cost the lives of many on both sides. While ultimately the U.S. would  prevail, it would be a political disaster for Trump and the U.S..

We must all admit, Trump can be very slippery, either subtlety or even outrageously transparent. One can expect he can find a reason to declare victory one way or another, without going to war. It will be interesting to see if he can wiggle out of this without appearing weak or indecisive.

We are now all the audience to this global reality show.

 IT WILL CONTINUE EVEN AFTER TRUMP

AUDIENCE IS ALSO AN INTERACTIVE PARTICIPANT

We all witnessed the opening of this ongoing real life reality show with the introduction of Donald Trump as a main player in this ongoing saga. Many believe it was just Trump, but while he has savored this new ability to take center stage, it may have more to do with the internet, new alternative media and the ability to stream global events in almost real time.

In the past, we were at the mercy of the established media and often did not have access to real events until days or weeks after the fact and then it was often edited and manipulated to create the right narrative. While that still goes on, the manipulation is now part of the story. The media is also an interactive part of this ongoing real life drama.

While Trump may be the first to understand this new reality, I suspect other players are now recognizing this opportunity and making the most of it. Putin,  Zelensky, Xi, Khomeini, Netanyahu and Maduro are now also big players in this new story.  We can hear them and see them in near real time and they are able to become real participants and real people rather than just some caricature created by the media. 

The story, the play, the characters are real and come with all the human weaknesses, strengths and failings. We can watch all these human emotions and human nature on display, no less than in the best Shakespearean play. 

Much like the best theatrical production we have multiple plots and subplots some connected to a big picture cooperation, some isolated. Some are short lived and some continue for years. 

Then you have the ability of the audience to then become an interactive player in many ways, protests, coordination with the main actors and I suspect that it has led to an increase in voter participation fueled by emotions created by this new global reality show.

While we watch the show, we all must speculate what the ending of this show will be, as the plot thickens we are led in many direction and speculations as to what the end of the story will be. Then again, I suppose there will never be an end or final act as long as the internet and the ability to watch and participate continues.

Is the exodus of Ukrainian officials beginning?

 CORRUPTION SCANDAL AND LOOMING  ECONOMIC  COLLAPSE 

THE SO CALLED HANDWRITING ON THE WALL

The recent scandal involving graft and fraud in Ukraine has now led to the resignation of several government officials. At the same time others seem to be exiting the country for diverse places, including Zelensky's business partner, Timur Mindich who left for Israel the day before the corruption scandal broke. He has since been charged with running a corrupt organization, but there is no extradition treaty with Israel. 

It is also rumored that some official who are now in Turkey for negotiations will not be retuning, that will soon be determined.

The law that forbids the exit from country of those between 18- 60 does not apply to government officials. Any opportunity to conduct business out of the country could be used as an excuse to leave and simply not return.

It is also reported that over 100,000 men of draft age have fled the country in the last 3 months. While they are  considered to have broken the law, neighboring countries have been resisting forcing them to return to Ukraine.

It has been reported for years that all of the top officials have residences in other countries, often owned by sheltered corporations, the U.S. and Monaco have often been mentioned. Many of their families are already out of the country.

It seems that this latest corruption investigation has triggered some to consider that it may be the right time to exit. This and the uncertainty of the ability of the government to find the revenues or funds to sustain the government in the future.

Epstein story, salacious interest, but no real revelations.

 IT IS CLEAR, NO ONE IN POWER WANTS THE TRUTH

SEX IS NOT THE REAL STORY

While the Epstein story is now again prevalent in the news, there doesn't seem to be much interest other than sex. We all know that Sex sells, and the focus on this story, by people who know better, has always been on Sex. No better way to hide the truth about the Epstein Enterprise than shift the focus on what arouses everyone, Sex.

I suspect, most of the media, all of the political leaders, both democrat and republican, every intelligence agency in the U.S., and many foreign political and intelligence leaders know the truth about Epstein's activities. They all believe it is in their best interest to let this affair to just go away.

Any objective observer understands that Epstein's connections to the power base of this country was indeed very interesting. He was well known in  higher education with much influence at Harvard University,  particularly the scientific community. He was able to raise large sums of money for many diverse causes from grants for research, to establishing the "Clinton foundation" He has at his disposal massive amounts of money, owning the largest residence in Manhattan, a residence with its own video and sound recording system manned by several professional full time persons. Question, where are these people? Where are are all the tapes and videos? We hear talk of releasing files, but never mention of all the recordings.

He also owned properties in Arizona, and a island in the Caribbean, was supposed to be a master at investment advice, with no real information of any investments. No one has ever revealed where all his money came from. His money could be traced, if anyone really wanted to know.

His girl friend Ghislaine Maxwell, from the Uk, just shows up in Manhattan and hooks up with Epstein, her father Robert Maxwell, a politician and media person in the Uk had unquestionable connections with MI6 and Israeli intelligence. Robert Maxwell's suspicious death and then burial in Israel, where he was buried on the Mount of Olives and given a state funeral reserved for national hero's, attended by the highest ranking members of the political class, indicates he was very valuable to the state of Israel.

So, in effect we are told to believe that Epstein was a sex addict of some kind and all these women were procured by Maxwell to service his needs. The word pedophile is used everywhere, the definition is an attraction to prepubescent women or men. This is generally considered 12 for girls and 13 for boys. This is the standard definition, why is it continually used by the media, masters of good grammar. While many of these girls were under 18, I have yet see real evidence as to the age of these subjects. They are all listed as victims, but they were all paid. Does any one doubt that there are many millions of prostitutes under the age of 18 in this world.  We are told that there are thousands of  these victims, is there a list of these victims by age and sex, with of course redacted names? I have never heard anyone prove any of this.

We see Democrats want to connect republicans for political purposes, always about SEX, but they do not, or do Republican's, other than those who are now labeled traitors or wackos, ask the real questions. It is clear asking the real questions will lead to your marginalization, censure or worse. So media, politicians, and leaders stick to the focus on sex, it sells, and will keep the low brows imagination filled with visions of sexual gratification, while keeping the big secrets, secret.

 

New cold War: Not so cold and more dangerous.

 COLD WAR UNDERWAY AND ESCALATING

NOT JUST 2 PLAYERS, BUT MANY

No one can deny that a new cold war is now underway. This time it is often hotter, enlisting more players and hence much more dangerous. In fact, we could say that we are in the midst of a global cold war that could turn extremely hot at any moment.

The former cold war, that older folks like myself remember, and sadly most of younger generations do not, was mostly an ideological contest between Totalitarian Communism and Democracy, a very simplified description. It was the status quo for 45 years, a contest between the United States and its allies and the Soviet Union and its allies. It started out with the quiet understanding that nuclear war was probable and kept everyone tip toeing around, fearful of triggering such a conflagration. 

The United States engaged in limited wars in Korea and Vietnam, in an effort to contain the spread of Communist ideology. The Soviet Union supported communist governments and communist movements in many places.  At the same time there was an ongoing effort to keep up militarily with preparedness for any conflict arising from this competition. The continual fear of nuclear war kept the arms industry fat and happy without any major all out war taking place.

That all changed in 1991 with the dissolution the Soviet Union, a major turning point in the geopolitical history, an unprecedented event, that while the west declared victory in the cold war, the former Soviet Union struggled to transition from totalitarian communism into a hoped for member of the world community. While it was a mostly peaceful transition, it caused great suffering and pain to the all those involved in the transition. It was a period of optimism around the world. In the U.S. we welcomed the new Peace dividend and the Russian federation proposed and cooperated in many significant arms reduction treaties that promised a more peaceful world. Russia, after disbanding the Warsaw pact and granting independence to those eastern European countries, even proposed Russia becoming part of NATO. The Soviet Union, the leader of the worldwide communist movement  for 75 years was no more and it was rejecting communist economics and moving to a hybrid democratic free market. 

The West with its massive defense network was now adrift, looking for relevance and a unifying threat to keep up the now dominant motivation for many. We saw a short lived focus of fighting drug cartels in Columbia, Panama and other places, but it just did not have the potential for a major unifying defense strategy. It was not long until a new enemy was to emerge to provide the threat and reason for the existence of maintaining a massive defense industry. The Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979 was the beginning of the new threat, Islamic fundamentalism and protecting the oil resources of the Mideast.

The Iranian revolution with the nationalization of their oil reserves controlled by British and U.S. oil companies and the holding of U.S. embassy staff as hostage's was the beginning of the new focus for the nest 45 years. One can speculate that the Iranians did the hostage affair, knowing that they could expect that military action was imminent, and the 1 year gave them time to organize a government.

The next event or action was the Iran/Iraq war which began in1980 with Iraq encouraged and supported by the west. the war lasted until 1988 and claimed the lives of over 500,000 with between 1 and 2 million casualties. Final peace did not take place until 1990. One must wonder if this was the beginning of a series of proxy wars in the global political game.

Saddam Hussein, leader of Iraq spent 10 years with the war with Iran and some suspect that he was made promises by the West, mostly by the U.S. and British. There is documented proof that April Glaspie, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, told Saddam that the west would not get involved in land disputes in the region. Iraq had lost much of its oil fields by the British creation of Kuwait in an effort to control the oil reserves in that region. One can then speculate that possibly because Saddam had not defeated Iran and he also may have been the first to be baited into war. Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991 and he soon found out that Glaspie or her masters had lied. This brought about a huge movement of U.S. troops to the middle east and the first Gulf war with the destruction and slaughter of the Iraqi military.

In 1979 Russia, who has advisers in Afghanistan, invaded in response to the public execution of 20 Russian advisers in Herat. The Russians were tied up until 1989 and it ended its support for other communist movements worldwide. The opposition was massively funded and supported by the U.S. and other western countries. The Islamic forces then became a proxy force that was used more times in the future, including Syria, Libya and Africa. It is estimated that 80% of the forces in Afghanistan were foreign.

All this coincided with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which actually may have created a void in the international balance of powers. This void was openly embraced by the war advocates in the U.S. who claimed the U.S. was the sole super power and began to use that reality to behave in a fashion not present in former U.S. history.

While Russia was immersed in chaos, poverty and struggling to transition to a new political and economic system the U.S. hoped to transform the world into its view of a "New World Order " to many, that phrase used by George Bush 1, awakened fears of world government and encouraged political opposition in the U.S. 

The first gulf war resulted in the permanent formation of U.S. bases in the middle east. An anathema to Muslims in the region and eventually was the reason for the 911 attack on the U.S. in 2001. This attack was organized by Osama Bin Laudon a former Afghanistan fighter against the Soviets. Bin Lauden prophetically predicted that if the U.S. continued to meddle in the middle east they would "BLEED" the U.S. to its eventual collapse. While the U.S. is still in the region  and continues to exert its power, it is shadow of the economic and military power force that it was in 1991.

While Russia struggled in its transition, the U.S. and NATO set out the process of extending NATO membership to countries from the former Soviet Union. Russia protested, but took no action. With the election of Vladimir Putin to the presidency of the Russian federation 2000, the first elected president, Russia was able to focus on the stabilization of the country. Putin is a nationalist with a nationalist view of Russia as a sovereign and independent country. I suspect that fact is one reason why he has been hated by western leaders, who all seem to be more interested in some global end game, even if it is damaging to their own people. That and as the former leader of the world communist movement, that rejected communism, is hated by those Marxists who still exist in those same western countries. The escalation really took off when George Bush 11announced in 2008, that Ukraine and Georgia would be invited to join NATO. 

While the propagandists in the west claimed that Putin wanted to reestablish the former Soviet Union, the reality is NATO expansion is a plan to encircle and eventually dismember Russia, a plan originating in the 1970's and now understood clearly by Russia. It is clear as to the intentions and it is clear that Russia will resist NATO expansion, as an existential threat to its sovereignty. There will not be a settlement that ends with Ukraine in NATO or western troops in Ukraine, even if it leads to nuclear confrontation.

So while the war in Ukraine became hot, and some believe this was the plan, bait Russia into war and then destroy it economically and militarily, it is not working out as planned, so far at least. 

The U.S went on with war against Iraq under the false premise of nuclear weapons and then proxy wars with Libya, Syria and failed attempts in Egypt and Tunisia. We also support conflicts in Chechia, Georgia and Africa provide massive military support to Taiwan and Israel.  Much of our national debt is directly related to new peace we discovered post 1991. That and a diminishing of our image around the world.

While this conflict is between NATO and Russia, we also have the desire to hamstring China economically, force fence sitters like India to become economic and military allies of the west and at the same time insure the protection of Israel by eliminating any power that can challenge its supremacy. This is the new Cold war, a global conflict in the hope of sustaining the supremacy of the western powers, economically, politically and militarily. a hope that may have already expired in reality.

After WW2 the U.S. was the undisputed leader economically, politically and militarily and also with an image of fair play and trustworthiness. The country is no longer the leader in manufacturing capacity, a must to be supreme. It is economically bankrupt, with massive debts, as is the whole western world. It is severely divided politically with no remedy in the near future. While still having equity in nuclear weapons,  the reality of the 21st century that third world countries, while not nuclear, are sufficiently educated technically that rebels in Yemen can stave off the U.S. fleet and air defenses in Venezuela could cause serious damage to U.S. air power. It is no longer the case that nations are unwilling to challenge the Western powers. 

While the EU talks about preparing for war, but has no economic base for such an undertaking, Russia has been preparing for war in reality. A war that no one in their right mind should even contemplate. The U.S. still a world power, but unlikely to do well in an extended long term conflict, would likely need to resort to nuclear weapons in a peer power conflict. So this is again, the new Cold war, a series of threats, intimidation, economically, militarily that serious people do not want to escalate to a real hot war. The resolution cannot come from war, but facing the new reality that world has changed, it can no longer be sustained as it has for the last 80 years. Only the realization that real peace is the only solution. A peace based on mutual respect and a similar realization that was present during the former cold war, that confrontation into real war will not end well for anyone.

Questioning Foreign policy is not racist.

 MORE DAMAGE FROM OVERREACTION

FIRST ISRAEL AND NOW ITS U.S. SUPPORTERS

In recent days we see what is being a called a civil war inside the MAGA supporters or the Republican party. Much of it has to do with the question, is the Trump administration more "Israel first" than MAGA and questions about the U.S. support of Israel have been raised, mostly prompted by the GAZA situation. 

The policies of Benjamin Netanyahu in Gaza is what has focused the world on Israel, Zionism and now the U.S. support for Israel. It is all now under a magnifying glass and details and questions are being raised concerning decades of mid-east war in general and even details about the Oct, 7 atrocity of the Hamas attack and how the best intelligence agency in the world did not see it coming. 

The response to these questions, first by Netanyahu himself, and then by supporters in the U.S.  has been to label anyone who questions the U.S. support as being anti-Semitic. a NAZI, and every form of vile adjectives that could be thought of. These labels have now been applied to even Tucker Carlson, Meghan Kelly and Candice Owens or anyone who should question the extraordinary support that the U.S. has given to Israel. In an effort to silence the questions they have now been spread with a megaphone around the world.

Mark Levin has especially been vile in his accusations, and in todays world his speech at an Israel/Republican conference is all over the internet. His speech just reinforces the arguments of those who question the Israel policy. While it may have played well at the select meeting, in todays world everything can be expected to surface and go viral within hours. The same for Netanyahu publicly calling those who question the policy "Right Woke" It bewilders me how they really believe that this approach will insure continued support from the United States. 

Then there are those who applaud any division in the republican party as a "WIN" no matter how dangerous and destructive. They are going to magnify the potential damage to the nation.

Everyone understand Israel's dependence on U.S. support and anyone with a knowledge of history and public relations should understand that what is happening will undermine Israel's support and sadly also may create real animosity to the Jewish population is general. Real antisemitism is nothing compared to what I have seen growing up in the 1950's, and now they are setting the stage by their false use of the term to create real antisemitism. 

Just as the policies of overreaction by Israel has been counterproductive, so is the vile over response by its supporter in the U.S. in setting the world on a dangerous path.

New corruption in Ukraine exposed.

 $100 MILLION, WHOSE MONEY WAS THIS?

LABLED THE MOST CORRUPT COUNTRY FOR A REASON

Yesterday it was revealed that the head of the Justice department and the energy department in Ukraine have been accused of graft and corruption to the tune of $100 million. I suspect that this is only the tip of the iceberg when in comes to corruption in Ukraine. Way before the present conflict, there have been reports of very fringy business in Ukraine, much of it illegal by international law.

Ukraine has been hoping for a nation status for centuries, it was always under the control of neighboring countries, Ukraine actually means borderland or frontier in Slavic languages. It has been part of Lithuania, Poland and of course, Russia and the Soviet Union. Sadly its hope of a nation state is now more dire than it needed to be.

The country is acknowledged to be very diverse in its culture, eastern Ukraine is culturally closely associated with Russia, western Ukraine with the west. During WW2 western Ukraine sided with Nazi Germany and fought against Russia. Many of the prison and camp guards were Ukrainian. After WW2 western intelligence agencies cultivated this fact to organize internal dissent against the Soviet Union.  The now godfather of Ukraine Stepan Bandera was a Ukrainian nationalist who cooperated with Nazi's in a hope of forming a Ukrainian nation. The Nazi's arrested him and sent him to prison, but was released in 1944. After the war he fled to Germany and was assassinated by KGB agents in 1959. He is revered in Ukraine for his hope of an independent nation state.

Corruption in Ukraine has been notorious, before this conflict it was understood to be a haven for internet servers that were available for rent to anyone who wanted to engage in activities illegal in their country.  Scammers and even political consultant groups used these servers to create some anonymity and avoid authorities in more organized legal countries.

We are all familiar with the pay-offs to Hunter Biden by Ukrainian energy companies and also scams laundering political funding for democrats. We can assume these activities were not isolated to any one party or even to just the United States. Much of this occurred before the country was at war.

Wartime it a prime time for all sorts of corruption to flourish, skimming of massive amounts of foreign money and chaos of war, make it all so easy. Then one must wonder what the CIA was doing in eastern Ukraine with dozens of Bio-labs that we can expect were not possible in the U.S. We have seen no effort to reveal what they were doing and why? Then there are the reports of organ selling from injured young Ukrainian soldiers and also other human trafficking.  We may or we may not ever understand the scope of this corruption even when this conflict ends. We can now expect the Russians will have some answers to these questions, of course, they will be easy to dismissed as Russian propaganda.

I suspect like most places there a lots of honorable and honest citizens in Ukraine, but it is clear that they have never had a government that was up to the standards of a law based system. Most Ukrainians wanted to remain unified and hoped for an independent country, it was demonstrated with votes for Yanukovych, who feared what would happen if the country sought NATO membership. Even Zelensky campaigned as an outsider who wanted to peacefully come to some sort of accommodation with Russia, that's how he won over the U.S. candidate, Poroshenko. It now appears the Zelensky was the MI6 candidate and the poor Ukrainians never had a real choice in their hope of an independent country. Their leaders have been bought and paid for by the western powers in their effort to dominate in this geopolitical game. 

The poor Ukrainians are now encouraged to keep fighting until none remain, to save the images of Lindsey Graham and John McCain and those other western leaders who gambled the future of Ukraine in their lust for the resources of Ukraine and Russia.

While the corruption in Ukraine is the focus of today, the complicity of U.S. and other western leaders in the tragedy of Ukraine, should not be minimized. 

 

Attempting to contain China is a loser.

 TARIFF'S AND SANCTIONS NOT WORKING

CHINA IS NOT DEPENDENT ON THE U.S.

Our leaders in Washington are alarmed that China has grown into a industrial giant. We hear claims that they are cheating, overproducing or selling below costs in an effort to dominate economically.  The realty is they are already dominating in many sectors and are now self sufficient with their many partners around the world.

We cannot restrain China's advancement by attempting to limit what they can buy from us or limiting what we will buy from them. Such practices may cause a slight dip in their GDP, but will soon be meaningless, by being replaced with business in other parts of the world. We will soon find, we will be more damaged than China. 

China has at least 5x the industrial capacity compared to the United States. Its steel production is 12x the United States and now most of the world is buying Chinese steel. It is true that their standards are sometimes not up to our standards, but if demanded they can produce quality steel. 

Our first attempt at containment was an embargo on certain silicon chips, which China was very large customer of U.S. producers. China responded by investing in their own production and is now beginning to dominate in the world market. Our producers are now suffering from the loss of business and the competition. The attempt to put large tariffs on their products led to them restricting export of rare earth minerals that China has a dominant position and will have that position for another decade. 

Japan was their biggest supplier of high quality machine tools with billions in contracts. The U.S. convinced Japan to limit those sales to China and China cancelled its business with Japan and replace it with tools from Russia. Yes, Russia does produce such tools and even U.S. manufactures had to scramble to replace those supplies when we embargoed Russian machined products.

China also retaliated against U.S. grain exports, replaced it with grain from Brazil, Russia, Ukraine and Argentina. 

China has world class modern manufacturing capacity and much of the machinery was purchased from Germany, which is now suffering from massive increases in energy costs due to the embargo on Russian energy.

I could go on and on about the failure of efforts to contain China. The reality is it is not going to happen, we can not raise our stature by weakening theirs, we need to look inward and find ways to compete and become self sufficient.

We can listen to all the propaganda about how China wants to rule the world, but the reality is that China is all about business. They have mastered business, like the U.S. once did in the past.  They have invested much in improving the quality of life for their citizens and while we always claim that they earn slave wages, they have a 30% savings rate and Chinese tourists are all over the world and they are not spies subsidized by the government.

China has money to invest, earned by manufacturing everything and anything. The U.S. government sucks up most of investment money in this country by financing its massive debt, spent not on investment but on consumption. U.S. citizens save a miniscule amount of their incomes, if any.

Then there is competitiveness, we built the Northeast extension of the Pa. turnpike in 3 years in the 1950's, this runs from Philadelphia to near the northern border. Today the planning would take ten years and the project would be a decade or more. They have been improving the interchange in Hamburg for ten years and it is still not done, by the time it is done, it will need to be upgraded, a perpetual job.

We convinced Taiwan Semi conductor to build a plant in Arizona, The plant was delayed because labor issues and regulatory hurdles and when completed is having union other labor problems it does not have in Taiwan. 

Then many are alarmed at China's now big increase in Military production, much of it stimulated by U.S. generals trash talking China and predicting war by 2025. The U.S. is now infamous for big mouthed politicians and generals threatening the competition and then being alarmed when they respond by building up their military. It is time the U.S. leaders realize they can no longer intimidate others into submission, when it is unlikely such a war could be fought or won.

A new policy needs to be implemented and soon, This country needs to look inward and realize we are not the country of 40 years ago, we have lost our manufacturing capacity and willingness to be competitive, we are bogged down with bureaucracy, regulation and a declining work ethic.  

Any attempt to keep us on the top of the heap by limiting others, will be a dismal failure.

The political winners feel good, but no real achievement.

 AMERICANS ARE LEARNING, BUT LONG WAY TO GO

NO CONSENSUS FOR FUNDAMENTAL REFORM

Last week we saw Democrats rejoicing for winning in N.Y. and Virginia and securing their government benefits and voting rules with generous judges in Pa., but no move to do what is needed to salvage the country.

Yesterday, the Republican declared victory in the budget standoff that resulted possibly in a small decrease in the budget totals. An insignificant victory in remedying the path to insolvency of the federal government.

Emotional victories that will do little to do the massive reforms needed to save the country.

While there is hope in that we see many Americans and younger Americans, who are not programmed into party emotionalism, beginning to reject this nonsense, but the country still is not ready to face the daunting challenges on the horizon.

It seems the least focused on actually facing those challenges is the entrenched bureaucracy that just wants the gravy train to keep on running. I suspect they may understand the perilous reality of the future, but believe that they will be retired on the ranch by the time that happens. Most Americans are, sorry to say, economically illiterate, and assume everything is good if the stock market is up and 401K is increasing. Everything is good, until it is not, and then the chances of reform or remedy will be very very painful.

We see cuts to the budget by DOGE that immediately were moved over to the bloated bureaucracy in the Pentagon. A entrenched bureaucracy that is always in need of more money without any accountability or audit. It is considered too big to be held to account. I suspect this could be applicable to many other bureaucracies. 

While many have become numb to the debt and deficit figures, because many have been warning about this for decades, with no serous negative results. We now live in a changing world, the US is no longer the undisputed manufacturing leader in the world, the basis of real wealth creation. The dollar, which will continue to be used, but it is going to be eclipsed and will not be the global reserve currency, not because of foreign conspiracy, but it non longer deserves that status due to the government irresponsibility and fiscal mismanagement. Deficits translate into inflation and a reduced buying power of a currency and an evaporating store of wealth.

The attempt to lure the country into war by the war profiteers and the foreign entanglements in Europe and the middle east, who use our military as their bully big brother, with us paying or borrowing the funding and the blood of our young men, seems to be ever present. It is increasingly being rejected by the younger generations of Americans, a step in the right direction. 

The reality is we no longer can afford the wars, the generous benefits, or the fraud, waste and financial abuse and irresponsibility. The rest of world understands this much better than Americans. 

What is needed is for a President to have an oval office speech, laying out the future realistically, calling on the nation to unite and rally to make the reforms now, before it is too late. Sadly, it cannot happen, the nation, like an addict, is not yet at the bottom, the partisans would eat him alive, and his pole numbers would go to 20%. Like Jerimiah, he understands they want to be told smooth and nice things, victory and winning and an ever bright future, until it is not. 

Healthcare focus should be on cost reduction.

 SUBSIDIES AND THIRD PARTY PAYERS 

NO INCENTIVE FOR COST REDUCTION

It seems there may be some sort of short term agreement on the budget. The big obstacle has been the elimination of subsides for policies based on income for those who purchase a plan on the Obama exchange. Extending subsides and other ideas that help to pay for plans do not address the outrageous cost of so called, "healthcare" in the United States.

The Cost of healthcare in this country is not balanced in relation to peoples ability to pay. It has exploded way over what it should be as a proportion of peoples income. The cost is now 18% of the GDP, near double of the cost in other countries, the cost in 1960 in the U.S. was 5%. Many of these countries have government provided healthcare and it seems it inevitably lead to a decline in service. The per person cost in this country is now near $14,000 a year. 

In is no secret that the cost of healthcare rise is directly associated with the introduction of Medicare and Medicaid. When Medicare was first started, it paid the prevailing rate for service, but as the use of Medicare quickly increased, due to the fact that the cost was paid for by someone else, it quickly led to efforts of the government to cut costs by reducing payments for service. This instigated the practice of cost shifting, where insurance and self payers costs were increased to offset the cutting of payments for Medicare. This practice by government and the reaction by providers has been incrementally continued and increased  for many yeas. This created another problem with increased insurance costs that made many unable to afford insurance at all. Of course the answer is again, more government intervention and the pressure to go to government funded healthcare which will not fix this problem.

Most people get insurance coverage through their employer, the rise in cost has contributed to the non competitiveness of U.S. based companies. It has also raised the cost of education and government through very generous benefits. The co-pays have also increased dramatically. When people have third party payers they will show up for service for the most minor issues,. if they had to pay, they would do a cost analysis for many of these issues. 

The focus of government needs to be shifted from attempting to find ways to pay more to finding ways to cut costs. Only real market forces can do that. It is interesting that non insured elective surgeries have remained much more reasonable were individuals have to pay for the procedure, breast implants and laser eye surgeries are good examples.

There needs to be some new thinking, like employers giving employees a lump sum to purchase insurance. Really create market incentives in the market. Require up front estimates for surgeries and other services, patients could then make some choice based on the charges. It is the only thing we do with no up front revelation, just a massive bill at the end and negotiations either by self payers or insurance companies. Realize, that insurance companies often do not pay the bill that you see, it is often negotiated.

So, the best idea would to gather representatives of all interested parties and look for ways to cut the costs. Providers are saddled with massive amounts of red tape and efforts to get paid. I suspect there is much we don't understand about why these cost have exploded, find solutions to cut costs.

I think Kennedy is correct about focusing on prevention, starting at an early age through diet and exercise. I suspect we will reanalyze the heavy incentives for drug therapy that is costly and often leads to other problems created by the drugs. We need far more education about the dangers of the use of prescription drugs. With 20% of GDP spent on healthcare, we must be the most unhealthy people on the planet, not only physically but economically.

 

Election volatility, voters searching for real representation.

 ELECTIONS ARE SYMPTOM OF CHANGING WORLD

WORLDWIDE PHENOMENON

The election in New York city has many bewildered, how can a openly socialist candidate win this election? Of course, many have still not understood why Donald Trump has been able to win 2 elections for president. Much of this is not so much the allure of the candidate, but the rejection of the existing power structure that is now the being questioned, no only here but around the world. 

In fact, Obama was the pictured by many as a outsider candidate, but soon proved to have the same policies, especially in foreign policy, as the rest. Trump immediately went to the front against a bunch of traditional candidates because he was an outsider, then the outrage and universal opposition of the power structure, media, politicians and experts, just added to that outsider image. The reality is many people, and with 75% of the people under 30 voting for Mamdani, are rejecting the traditional candidates. They are being rejected because most believe they will not change course from the existing policy. A policy that in this country has resulted in a $38 Trillion in debt, and growing, a foreign policy of death and destruction that has not positively effective their lives and the perceived reality that none of them represent them once elected. 

In Europe the leaders of the the UK, France and Germany are under 25% approval  and they are openly attempting to disqualify any opposition candidate or party. There will be huge changes coming to the Eurozone one way or another. 

We see the same thing in central Africa, were traditional candidates are being replaced by those that are shedding themselves of the last remnants of colonialism and are being threatened from outside powers.

There is a strong desire for a change of direction and it is always dangerous because that direction may also not be exactly what people desire. It is obvious that the world order that existed since WW2 is coming to an end. The leading nations of that order are weighed down with massive debts and a loss of direction, other than attempting to keep the whole thing going a little longer. This debt and failure to address issues at home are now becoming evident everywhere. It will require new policies and new thinking, something that has not as yet become solidified into real policy.

Is Venezuela preparing for a serious conflict?

 CAN RUSSIA MAKE THIS INTO A HEMISPHERIC PROXY WAR?

IT APPEARS IT MAY BECOME MORE THAN A FEW DAYS CONFLICT

Reports are increasing of Russia, China and Iran supplying Venezuela with sophisticated drones and other equipment to at least give the United States some sort of damage if it attempts to attack Venezuela. Or will it actually put the cost high enough for the U.S. to rethink any attack at all?

No one believes that Venezuela can prevail against the U.S. if a serious effort is made to win a war. Many wonder if this whole thing was not a bluff to force Maduro to exit the country, if so, it now appears that is not going to happen. This will put Trump in a difficult position, if no attack is made he will appear weak and if he does and suffers casualties and even ships damaged it will not be a positive. It appears Venezuela is making preparations to seriously defend and the introduction of foreign assistance is another escalation, now in the western hemisphere.

The Russians and Iranians may consider this a payback for the support that the U.S. has been providing against them for years. The U.S. has assisted in the death and destruction of their countrymen in their part of the world.

Will this become another Cuban crisis in the effort to challenge the U.S. at home for leverage in what many believe is a system being proposed to concede spheres of influence in an effort to minimize nuclear armed conflict?

We will soon find out, as every day Venezuela becomes more prepared and the cost to the U.S. of maintaining this force is increasing every day. One might expect some sort of negotiated victory for Trump, to avoid actually risking some sort of prostrated conflict with losses for the U.S. military. 

Anticipating war, now the new normal.

 MAYBE LOTS OF POSTRUING, BUT NO ACTION

IS THIS TRUMP'S STRATEGY?

For months, there have been reports of war being imminent, Israel/Iran, long range missiles to Ukraine and now Venezuela. Lots of logistics, lots of assets moving into position, but so far, no action. Is the hope that threats of military action, will cause surrender by Iran, Russia or now Venezuela. If that was the plan it is obviously not working.

In Iran, since the last action in June, Iran has reinforced and strengthened is defenses, its offensive capacity has also been reinforced. Israel is in a far less positive political. economic and military position and the devastation from the last encounter with Iran is now finally being revealed.  The window to attack Iran may be closing, is this Triumphs strategy in these conflicts, procrastinate until the possibility of an attack is far more risky.

While we still hear reports from Ukraine and the U.S. media how Russia is losing and Ukraine is winning, it is clear that Ukraine is about to lose its last pivotal defense hub in Pokrovsk and is losing ground everywhere. While Ukraine still makes valiant attempts to resist they are usually resulting in more loses. While EU continues to talk of escalating, it is clear they do not have the political, economic or military to actually enter this conflict. I suspect Trump and Putin have agreed that they will not risk going to war over Ukraine.

The latest imminent conflict is Venezuela, where the U.S. has moved large numbers of assets into the region, indicating that war with Venezuela is in the works. Trash talk, encouraging Maduro to leave while he can and other threats have resulted in Venezuela taking action, including new defensive weapons from Russia and China to prepare. While the air power and naval power is massive, it would require at least 50,000 troops to invade. I do not expect that Trump wants to get mired in a ground war in South America, it would be magnet for all kinds of anti-American factions to get involved. What would an air campaign accomplish, except alienate most of South America from the U.S..

One must wonder if Trump, really is reluctant to get involved in any wars, but is stalling the neocons in Washington, who seem willing to go to war everywhere, Netanyahu who has been desiring destruction of Iran for decades and the same neocons in the EU who would love to rope the U.S. into war with Russia.

If this Trump's strategy, it will soon become clear, then those in favor of war will either escalate the pressure with false flag attacks or direct pressure on Trump. It is a high stakes game that is costing money, but not as much as war.