Is Trump conflicted on how to make America great again?

 NEEDS TO FOCUS ON HISTORY AND PRIORITIES

AMERICA DID NOT BECOME GREAT BY TRYING TO BE #1

It does appear that President Trump does desire to restore the country to its former dynamic and supreme place in the world. It is also evident that while he does want to restore the countries manufacturing base, possibly the most important factor in the countries former place in the world. He is also sometimes not yet able to form policies in international relations that will restore the countries integrity and  credibility. 

On an individual basis, few people become wealthy by focusing on making more money. The reality is they become wealthy by taking pride in providing a product or service that people want and are happy to purchase or use that product or service, they strive to provide the best they can. If they soon become focused on more money, quickly they often stray in quality or satisfaction of their customers and once that become evident they are destined to decline. Of course, then some hope to keep their success going by hoping to force the desire for their product by stifling competition either by sabotage or government collusion. Inevitably they would be better off by going back and understanding what made them successful in the first place. 

This allegory does apply to nations as well. America became wealthy and strong by providing a system that encouraged entrepreneurship and innovation, This was maintained by a system of law that protected individuals, and their property. It sought, by copyright and patents to ensure these good ideas would benefit those who developed the innovations. It has been a great success.

At the end of WW2 the United States had the greatest manufacturing output in the world. It was blessed by the protection of oceans on both coasts. It had a reputation of excellence and fair play with most of the nations in the world. Of course, we can always point to failings and mistakes, but generally that was the case.

Within 20 years of the end of WW2 the world began to change. Germany and Japan were recovering and both were focusing on manufacturing quality and desirable products for the world, rather than aggression. We saw Germany 's quality optics and manufacturing equipment increase in quality and desirability. We watched as Jaqan provided motorcycles and cars and other desirable products and both soon became increasingly wealthy. They accomplished much of that by mimicking U.S. policies.

The Soviet Union, which had adopted the popular idea of communism was increasingly seeing a lack of initiative and a failure of human fulment and the generation after the original revolutionaries sought to reform to a more capitalist or freedom of market place system. Actually reforms began immediately after the death of Stalin and continued and culminated with the end of the communist system in 1991.  Their hope was to also mimic and develop a system that would be as successful as that witnessed in the U.S. and Germany and Japan. They openly desired to become part of the world system and sought a reduction of nuclear arms by numerous treaties. There is a long list available at the U.S. state department web site. It was in fact a marvelous undertaking of peaceful transition that was one of the most amazing developments of the 20th century. This process has been attested to by some who were there in their hope of assisting the leadership in that transition. Jeffrey Sacks, a U.S. economist, is daily still pointing out this fact.

There were those in the U.S. who saw this growing increase in wealth by these former opponents as a dangerous trend. At the same time the U.S. economy was increasingly hampered by regulation and lack of incentive and began transitioning to a system focused on making money by acquisition and dismemberment, loaning money at interest for consumer goods, importing from cheaper producers and selling to higher standard of living consumers. Its focus was on making money. It is a policy that can only lead to debt, a lower standard of living and weak manufacturing base. While the end is inevitable, it can be a slow decline or possibly a drop over the cliff.

Policy makers, rather than go back to the basis for the U.S. success, decided its ability to stay on top should be insured by diminishing and containing its economic competitors either by sanctions, monetary manipulations or outright military power. Of course, this is a short summary, but in effect that is were we are and now our failure to address this decline is on the precipice of even being in the position that military power is being challenged and soon we will not have the capacity to endure a sustained conflict.  

The U.S. was the first nation to make a break from the age old system of plundering those who have what we want. From Greece to Rome to the British Empire it was focused on taking by colonialism both militarily or economic. Some  European powers still strive for those days and would like the U.S. to assist in their taking. I suspect that some in this country would gladly revert to that system. 

While we continually hear the demonization of Russia, China and others, the biggest threat is right here at home and hoping to be successful by diminishing others will not have any effect on making America great again. A policy of military confrontation needs to be replaced by a policy of cooperation and mutual prosperity, it is the only policy that will insure the wellbeing of all. 

Don't expect Ukraine deal immediately.

 NO CEASEFIRE, UNTIL DEAL COMPLETED

LOTS OF COMPLICATED DETAILS

While it seems many expect some kind of deal to be reached this week on the Ukraine conflict, it is highly unlikely that a deal will be consummated much before the end of the year. There are lots of complicated details to be reached and Russia is not going to scrap its present advantage for some undetermined outcome. 

Trump, and I am sure still in consultation with NATO, is hopeful to get a ceasefire, as Ukraine is now about to lose its last strongholds in the Donetsk region. When those cites fall, they are now near cut off from supplies and partly surrounded, there will be little fortifications between there and the Dnieper river. 

Whether anyone wants to admit it, this conflict is about Russia's desire for security, not about land, but land and geography are always important for security. Natural barriers, high ground and distance all are important in determining a secure border.

While much of the West desires more access to resources, Russia is not in need of resources, Russia has the most valuable and abundant resources in the world. Now and historically, their most vital concern is security. So, without a settlement that is able to make Russia confident in their security for the long term, there will not be a quick settlement.

At present both Ukraine and the EU are not ready for a serious settlement. They are still talking about mustering and sending troops into Ukraine. They may still attempt to derail any agreement or attempt a false flag plan with Russia. 

Russia still wants a no NATO pledge, no Western troops in Ukraine, no Western bases in Ukraine. there is little reason for trust by Russia, at present the west is building bases in Romania and interfering in the politics of Moldova to further expand NATO. It also building NATO bases in Finland. All this will likely be need to be resolved for any settlement or ceasefire. That is a lot of negotiating and it still needs to include more than just Trump and Putin. 

Before this conflict started, Putin had offered to negotiate a comprehensive security arrangement for Europe, the answer was FU. There is little indication that the answer is any different now, other than Ukraine is about to go belly up. 

Does anyone believe that Europe or the U.S. is really ready to negotiate a long lasting security arrangement for all of Europe. History and the present dialogue indicates the western goal is the hope of dismemberment and subjugation of the Russian federation.

While such an agreement would be in the best interest everyone, I suspect the EU,  NATO and the neocons in the U.S. are not ready to give up on their decades old plans and Russia is no longer naive enough to believe otherwise.

Will Trump get it right, after trying all options?

 TRUMP'S FIRST 6 MONTHS SEEM MUCH LONGER

ZIGGING AND ZAGGING, WITHOUT CATASTROPHE

So far, Trump has not yet made any permanent catastrophic decisions.  We see trial balloons for lots of ideas and we even see trial policies that often are either postponed or withdrawn. Sometimes we must wonder if Trump, who is undoubtedly being pressured and influenced by a host of  parties to go in one direction or another is hoping to discredit his adversaries by openly giving credence to their pressure.

Trump's entire political career has, whether intentional or just by his existence, exposed so much of the hypocrisy and corruption in many of the institutions of America. We could list the mainstream media, the Intelligence community and the bureaucracy in general. Some of these exposures have been more subtle and just seem to come about on their own. 

So far, Trump has successfully navigated the pressure to escalate the war in Ukraine. One must speculate that the war in Ukraine, if left to a natural conclusion will soon come to an end.  It will come to an end when all sides realize that further fighting is useless.  It appears that Ukraine is entertaining that idea, but the European powers, not yet. There will not be some dramatic breakthrough of diplomacy, but the just the grinding reality of an end.

Trump's use of tariff's to bring about negotiations to address unfair trade practices has a hope of being successful. This applies to Canada, Mexico and the EU who are the most dependent on U.S. trade. As for China, an adversarial approach will not yield results and China has a lot leverage to make such tariff's, mutually painful. Trump's approach with China in his first term, was much more respectful and more successful. Again, I suspect that Trump has a lot of pressure to be tough on China, trash narratives and disrespect will not be productive with China.

It is no secret that the use of tariffs as a weapon in the Ukraine conflict was pushed by the Senate and it will be dismal failure, it will be counter productive and needs to be walked back to avoid permanent damage to relations with India. Maybe the Senate can be blamed for this misstep and silenced for some time.

Then, of course, there is the pressure to go to war with Iran, Trump has, at least for now, sidestepped that pressure, by declaring victory and allowing Israel to feel the possible pain of all out war with Iran, especially without total support from the U.S. Again, time may hopefully help to resolve some of these issues.

Trump seems to have been successful in curtailing much of the illegal entrance into the country and removing the worst criminal elements. He has also exposed the cities who have resisted. I believe this is political loser for all those who defend illegal immigration.

It is true that many of Trump's cabinet were not the most qualified, it is true they were picked for loyalty first. It is also true that in Trump's first term many of his picks were disloyal and in fact were motivated to undermine and damage him. 

Trump has sustained much criticism by adversaries and supporters, it is obvious that Trump does not have total unaccountable support from his supporters. He does have one quality, and that is the ability to change direction when it is obviously a failed path. Trump's path is lined with minefields and obstacles in abundance and it will not be straight path to a successful term. We can only hope that it will be successful.

Ukraine conflict, permanent negative results still expanding.

 UKRAINE, BIGGEST U.S. BACKED DIPLOMATIC FAILURE

REPERCUSSIONS ARE CHANGING THE WORLD

While the accepted narrative is that Russia invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked attempt to begin the process of restoring the former Soviet Union. Many observers do understand that this was in fact a calculated plan to force or bait Russia to protect its security and sovereignty by resisting at all cost further expansion of NATO on its borders.

The hope was that Russia could be drawn deep into Ukraine and systematically destroyed, resulting in a regime change and dismemberment of the Russian federation. The hope was to make its resources available and controlled by the western powers. It is ironic that possibly it will be more damaging to the perpetrators than to Russia.

Then hear the hypocrisy when anyone brings up the question, "What would the U.S. do if Russian or Chinese military bases would be installed in Canada or Mexico, it seems such an analogy is just not relevant to those who have been well programed for decades that Russia is evil and the U.S. is always right.

One other instance of the hypocrisy of U.S. policy was recently exposed when the U.S. general in Europe bragged that Kaliningrad, a small enclave of Russia in the Baltic, was surrounded by NATO nations and was vulnerable to be overrun in a short time. So much for NATO being a defensive alliance.

So, back to the long turn effects of this Ukraine conflict. The first casualty has been of course the people of Ukraine who have died at an alarming rate. It is now estimated that they have experienced 1.8 million casualties, some say that is actually those killed. Then there is near 10 million who have fled the country, many who will never return. It is also reported, by Ukraine that they have now 400,000 deserters, who also may never return. No one mentions those who are maimed and now disabled. Then of course there is loss of at least 25% of the country that will not be recovered.

Meanwhile Europe who has lost its availability of moderate priced Russian energy is slowly being deindustrialized and with the animosity toward Russia may never be available in same fashion in the future. Europe has a bleak future without access to Russian oil.

Geopolitically, Russia is now, by necessity, strongly allied with China and Iran. With the latest desperate effort to force India to stop using Russian oil it is forcing India, who has resisted taking sides, into the same alliance.  India is now in the process of buying Russian arms including air defense and now fighter jets. 

Then there is growing expansion of BRICS, which was formed in 2008, ironically when the U.S. first proposed NATO expansion into Ukraine and Georgia. It has expanded from 5 countries to now 10 members and 10 partners  combined it represents 56% of the world population and 44% of the world GDP. It is an economic alliance that is tariff free, and is increasingly transacting in their national currencies, rather than U.S. dollars. It also rejects sanctions as a political weapon. It has 30 other countries considering becoming affiliated.

Much of the world is moving away from domination of the western powers, this is happening from Asia to Africa and South American.

Much of this move is a reaction against war, intrigue and regime change politics, much of coordinated by the western powers intelligence agencies with full support of their governments. It is now possibly going to be very hard to reverse this trend.

Then there is the United States, laden with a $37 Trillion debt and growing, much of it accumulated in participating and financing war around the world. Most all, not in actual security threats against the United States, but a lust for power to rule the world. The same policies that have historically resulted in the end of Empires.

Trump's Senate forced deadline is a bust.

 SENATORS GO HOME AND TARGETS SAY NO

MORE SANCTIONS RISK ALIENATING INDIA

Senator Lindsey Graham claims he has 80 senators who want to put huge sanctions on any country that does business with Russia. The threat forced Trump to put a 50 day deadline on Putin to end the war or else. The deadline was then reduced to expire on this Friday. The sanctions would be in the form of tariffs of 100% on China, India, Brazil and others, the response has been an overwhelming rejection by all. The Senate went home without passing the bill.

Most importantly India, who has been fighting for years to position itself as a neutral and non aligned country, seems to be the major target, realizing that Brazil and China were always a no go.

The continued pressure on India, a country that has always had good relations with U.S., is soon going to be pushed further into an alliance with Russia and maybe even China. In the past few years we have witnessed an effort to cause internal problems in India by Canada making claims of assassinations of Indian dissidents in Canada, most likely orchestrated by U.S. intelligence. Recently we see actual fighting between India and Pakistan after a Pakistani terrorist attack on India. Pakistan's military is under control of the U.S. for decades and was instrumental in forcing its popular leader Imran Kahn out of power, attempting to assassinate him and he is now in prison. Khan offense was his hope of making Pakistan an neutral non-aligned country and spare his country from geopolitical intrigue.

This week, India has been airing all its complaints against the U.S. going back over 50 years. and is threatening to cancel its purchase of F-35's. If they do, will they be buying Russian or Chinese options? The outrage is India is becoming overwhelming and Trump is still promising big tariffs  on India for buying Russian oil.

India is exposing that the U.S.. has issued waivers on sanctions on U.S. importers of Russian Uranium, Palladium and fertilizer. It also points out that much Russian oil and gas still finds its way into the EU countries. Some believe it is more about the BRICS trade group than Ukraine.

So now we will see the risk of making deadlines that may be unenforceable or will cause some other escalation to save face. It is becoming apparent that the ability of the U.S. to force compliance from other countries by the use of sanctions may be coming to an end,  maybe it will be replaced with actual diplomacy.

Playing Russian roulette with the Russians?

 IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE OR ELSE

POOR PLAYERS ALWAYS WANT TO QUIT WHEN THEY ARE LOSING

It seems every day a message is sent that the west is about to escalate to the point of nuclear war. It is good that, so far, Russia has not taken them very seriously. We have seen an attack on the Russian nuclear deterrent air force, can Russia not wonder if this is a testing of its ability to respond.  Then the U.S.. makes it known that nuclear arms have now been positioned in the UK., can Russia not wonder if this is indeed preparation. This week the U.S. general in charge of Europe stated that they can and have practiced and are capable of invading and taking Kaliningrad in very short time. Kaliningrad is a small 40 mile wide of Russian territory in the Baltic. Does anyone wonder why or what would happen after that? Would Russia then come to their senses and surrender? Trump has also stated that he has sent 2 nuclear armed submarines to be stationed off the coast of Russia. I assume Russia has its own submarines stationed within striking distance of the U.S. and now maybe it will be time to up the preparedness level. This all seems to be an exercise in juvenile gunboat diplomacy.

All this trash talking and actual moving of nuclear resources can only indicate to Russia that in their desperation the United States is considering a pre-emptive strike against the the leadership of Russia. This is indicated when the former leader of Russia responded to trash talking from the United States when he commented to not forget Russia's "Perimeter " or "Dead Hand" system. This is a reference to a system designed to automatically launch nuclear missiles if it detects a pre-emptive strike, even if it decapitates the leadership. It is no secret that some delusional people in Washington believe that they could do a preemptive strike on Moscow and all their problems would be solved.

It will be a sad day for the world if Russia begins to take the U.S. seriously and believes that a pre-emptive strike is imminent, it will leave them only one option.

This is all about the fact that Ukraine is in very bad straits. The plea is made that they want to stop the dying, but I suspect that if the roles were reversed it would be a completely different story, It would be onward to Moscow and reparations and dismemberment. The reality is, as it has been since the beginning in 2014, Russia is not going to accept NATO expansion in Ukraine and it will not stop until that is reality. If the west insists that not happen, and continues to escalate there will only be one ultimate result. 

The other option is to admit a miscalculation, an error of judgement, and agree to a neutral Ukraine and save as much of Ukraine as possible. It is the only way to really stop the dying. Stop with the, "Russia want to occupy Europe nonsense", who would want to rule over that mess? Europe has nothing that Russia needs.  This fiasco has been a tragedy for Ukraine, a loss of resources and young men for Russia, a lose of economic viability for Europe and a drain on the heavily indebted U.S. taxpayers. Only vanity and hubris is keeping this going, if only everyone could declare victory and go home, but that is not the reality of this dire situation. 

Why is U.S. losing its economic leverage?

 CHINA IS NOW THE DOMINANT TRADE PARTNER FOR 70% OF COUNTRIES

50% OF COUNTRIES HAVE DOUBLE TRADE WITH CHINA THAN US

We often hear how China is taking advantage of the U.S. in trade and the U.S. must now use its economic power to limit China's growth and economic expansion. A look at the 2 maps below indicate the difference in China vs U.S. trade performance with the world. I would say that horse is long out of the barn and the U.S. no longer has the economic leverage to block or diminish China's trading strength around the world. Sanctions and tariffs will not be able to stop the economic expansion of China nor will threats of war.

Lowy Institute graphic

The graphic is telling, but it also does not take into account that much of this growth has occurred in the last 10 years. It is no coincidence that this expansion has occurred after the onset of the U.S. wars in the middle east, efforts by several U.S. administrations to engage in trade accords with China and others. It is also interesting that this growth has occurred in spite of a U.S. policy of containment focused on China. A policy of sanctions, tariffs, embargo's of certain materials have all resulted in China actually becoming more self sufficient and continuing to expand.

Embargos of computer chips reversed China's $400 billion annual import of chips from the U.S to its being now a major exporter of computer chips at far less cost. It has been a negative effect on U.S. chip makers. Other efforts at embargos has resulted in China restricting the sale of vital rare earth minerals in response. 

The reality is that China has continued to enjoy a trading volume with the rest of the world, without threats, intimidation or sanctions, but by offering the best deal and opportunity for its partners to both prosper, always the best interaction in trade. 

The U.S. should take into account that the ability to buy low cost merchandise from China has kept the inflation rate low in the U.S. even with its habit of massive deficit spending. Sadly, China has enabled the U.S. federal government to be very fiscally irresponsible for all these years.

As for the U.S. losing its competitiveness, that is largely due to the massive repressive regulation and taxation that makes, made in the USA, increasingly prohibitive. If the U.S. would correct it all its disincentives to produce here it would take 30 years to become a positive reality.

While many will take this reality as offensive it is the world as it is today and requires a reexamination of policies both at home and abroad to ever hope to be successful. What is needed is more cooperation for mutual prosperity, rather than threats of economic or military force.

World support for Israel on life support.

 DENIAL AND RATIONALIZATION, NO LONGER WORKING

OWN POLICIES MAY BE ITS BIGGEST THREAT

It appears that a critical time in Israel's experiment may have now reached its most dangerous threat to its existence, not from Iran or other opponents in the region, but from its own policies that are in the process of alienating most of the world. The situation in Gaza and it seems a desire for endless war have piece by piece caused the biggest lose of world support in its history. 

While much of this is labeled as defensive strategies it is no longer being accepted by a growing majority of world opinion. Israel is a small country with a big powerful ally that has historically had the support of most of the world. Sadly that support has evaporated due to its polices in the last 2 years. Claims of opposition psych ops and other excuses are no longer credible. Israel needs a change of direction quickly or its future is going to be dire.

Not only has it lost world support, but it is fragmenting within, with an effort to keep its population up, but forbidding travel out of the country, other authoritarian measures and the economy is losing its vitality quickly. The country is likely in its most critical situation in it's history. 

The latest debate of whether people are starving in Gaza or not? If Israel is intentionally committing genocide or not? This is not the debate that will encourage support for Israel. 

Then there are public statements from high ranking Israeli politicians that state that the whole population of Gaza is Hamaa and should be treated as such. That babies will in 15 years  be terrorists and that food, water and medicine should be cut off until Hamas surrenders. All this is soon heard by the world.

Then there is the plan to displace the whole population of Gaza into a small area in the south in preparation for their removal to some still unknown place. There are reports that Israel and the U.S. is negotiating with Libya and some other African nations. Will these people actually end up being sold on the slave markets of Libya? Doesn't anyone realize that all this unacceptable, or have they come under some delusion, that everything is acceptable.

Today,  real solutions are harder than ever. The animosity is deeper and stronger than ever. It has been a great failing that real solutions have never been seriously attempted. Now the situation has deteriorated and it is doubtful if any of the population in the region will survive, including Israel.

More interesting facts about Epstein/ Maxwell case.

 LOTS OF UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

WHY DID BANKS PAY $365 MILLION IN DAMAGES

In the last few days it has been revealed that only 2 witnesses testified in both the Epstein and Maxwell Grand Jury trials. Only 1 FBI agent testified in the Epstein trial and the same agent testified in the Maxwell trial along with a N.Y. city policeman.

Epstein never went to trial but 4 victims also testified at the Maxwell trial along the same FBI agent. Maxwell never testified in her trial as both herself and her attorneys believed she would be acquitted.

It is interesting that J. P. Morgan Chase paid out $290 million dollars in compensation to over 100 alleged victims. Deutsche bank also paid out $75 million and the Epstein Estate paid out $121 million. This was all part of agreement that they would not seek any other action against the Epstein estate. One must wonder why these banks paid this money. 

One has to believe that Maxwell knows all about what went on in this affair, it appears she was around for much of the time cooperating with Epstein. It is reported that she was associated with Epstein from 1990 to around 2006 and she claims she was a property manager. It is not clear if she was actually involved after 2006, that is when Epstein was arrested and eventually received immunity from any other prosecution as part of his plea deal. This is why Maxwell is appealing to the Supreme Court claiming she is also covered by that Immunity agreement.

It seems that the allegations are concerning activities before 2006, It is not clear if any is concerning later activities, which lasted  for another 10 years.

Maxwell claims she wants to testify, but after a ruling by the Supreme Court, and also wants immunity for testifying. She cannot be forced to testify without the immunity deal. 

Many claim that there are hundreds, if not thousand of victims. Are we to believe that all these women were recruited for Jeffrey Epstein's personal activities?  Is that the accusation? If they were recruited to be coupled with Epstein's clients or guests, then they are accessories if not perpetrators. Are we to believe that Maxwell was able to recruit this massive number of women by herself ? All those associated are also accomplices. Sorry, the more that is revealed the more questions appear to be unanswered.

Maxwell was convicted of trafficking and sentenced to 20 years, are we to assume that all this was just to satisfy desires of Jeffrey Epstein?

I would expect that Maxwell could negotiate at least a commutation or a reduced sentence if she agreed to expose the whole truth. It is doubtful that the elite ruling class ever wants that to happen.

It will be interesting to see the how the courts and the legislature deal with these developments. We can only assume that many do not want any more revelations about this affair. Does anyone really believe the truth about the extent of this operation will ever be revealed?

Ukraine desperation, Will sanctions, tariffs work?

 TRUMP THREATENS RUSSIA, END WAR OR ELSE

THREATENING BRICS WILL SPEED ITS ADOPTION

Yesterday, Trump made it clear that he has shortened his ultimatum to Russia to now 10 or 12 days. One must assume that his analysts have made it clear that Ukraine is about to go belly up and that only a ceasefire will enable them to rearm and reorganize. Of course, Russia will not submit to these threats nor will the BRICS members, who Trump is threatening to put 100% tariffs on all of them. If enacted, it will be a signal to most of the world that the U.S. is desperate and it may be time to pull the plug on cooperation with the western world.

It should be clear that these new sanctions are to placed on Russia's trading partners, who are not going to jeopardize their economies to placate Washington.

It is unlikely that Trump will pull the trigger on these sanctions as it would be a dangerous gamble for the U.S. and western worlds economy. I suspect that Walmart, Amazon and other U.S. companies will advise him, that if enforced, it will destroy the U.S. retail market. Now that he has publicly made these threats, he is in a no win situation.

Then there is Europe, much of this Russian oil ends up in the EU market via India and others, if cut off, it will add to their economic woes. I also suspect that are not willing to put such tariffs on their BRICS suppliers.

So the danger is, that now that Trump has issued an ultimatum and he may not be able to enforce such a threat, he may be enticed to do some other escalation, like a long range attack on Moscow or an attempt take over Kaliningrad, Russia's territory in the Baltic. This coupled with the recent news that the U.S. has sent nuclear warheads to the UK, is again threatening to make a bad situation much worse.

Russia is not going to engage in a ceasefire without a plan to satisfy their security concerns and objectives. They have made this clear and should be believed.

The best outcome would for the west to swallow hard and make peace with Russia by insuring their security and thereby saving Ukraine from further devastation. That would need a large dose of humility and rational thinking, something that seems to be in short supply.

Navigating through a minefield of misinformation and disinformation.

 MORE INFORMATION AVAILABLE THAN EVER

DISCERNING THE TRUTH OFTEN DIFFICULT

The reality of the information world today is that we are bombarded with unlimited access to facts and also attempts to create a narrative that attempts to conceal or cloud what is true. There was a time when your news was limited to 3 Television channels and a local newspaper, while I am sure there was always attempts at disinformation, it seems that it was much more accurate in times past. Today the major news sources are now the most distrusted, because of their apparent partisanship. They have destroyed their own credibility by their own actions that eventually were exposed. 

At the same time, government agencies, that are often the sources of information, have also proved to be either clouding the truth or outright lying. Their credibility has also been enormously damaged, either motivated by partisanship or attempts to cover up wrongdoing. The reality is, that there is not much that can be trusted today.

It is not only what is reported falsely, but more often what is not acknowledged or reported on at all.

The internet does have access to many people who are on the ground around the world and is also accessible to most everyone on the planet. It seems everyone has access to the internet, except North Korea, and there is someone somewhere that is in close proximity to most every event that is newsworthy. It is a remarkable situation that allows for near instant access to events as they happen. It is increasingly evident that even these sources are being used by those in power to create a narrative that is in their favor. The internet is now the major source of information for most everyone, globally. It is, predictably, now a tool for those who seek the truth and those who wish to conceal it. 

There are no casual observer of the news, in fact, many have tuned out all news, feeling that there is nowhere that is honest or trustworthy. It is likely that no one source is reliable enough to be completely accurate. Only a wide range of sources allows some ability to gather a picture of what is really happening and then some sort of putting the pieces together, aided by experience and objective thinking will hopefully put one on the right path. This and hopefully the ability to admit error and not be locked into some sort of preconceived conclusion make everything a moving and evolving outcome. That is the reality of the world we live in today. 

Personally, having been an observer of things for 60 years, I do have an advantage over youth in that I remember many things that I can attest were facts, even when a different narrative is often put forth. Once you see things that you know are untrue, it is easier to question other things that are put forth. Then the methods and patterns are continually being reused and replayed, because they worked in the past and are more easily understood by those who have seen all this before. 

So, good luck, to all those who are interested in the world today and remember that, it is true, the truth does seem to prevail in the end, even when it often takes many detours and seems like a maze of dead ends and other roadblocks on the way.

West still all in on defeating Russia.

 POWER WITHOUT HUMILITY OR RESPECT WILL NOT SUCCEED

GOING DOWN WITH THE SHIP IS NOT GOOD POLICY

It seems at present there is a lull in the world conflict, but it continues in preparation for more activity. The Russians continue to steadily advance everywhere and the battle of Provosk is the next major battle. Russia has surrounded this city on 3 sides and it is promising to be a major pivotal battle. Again, Russia seems to be not motivated by time, just the same steady grinding conflict that has been their strategy. I suspect they believe that time is on their side.

Not much talk about Iran, who it seems is readying for the next fight expected possibly in September, after Israel is rearmed and reorganized. We continue to see attempts at destabilizing Arzebigan, Armenia and Georgia in an attempt to pressure Russia from the south and Iran from the north. Also the attacks by Pakistan on India must be noted that the Pakistani military is mostly controlled by U.S. intelligence and it is also likely an attempt to pressure India into siding with the west. Intense Psych ops in Iran, still hoping for revolution, but again, the Iranians have been dealing this for 45 years. 

It is also evident that the west still hopes it can persuade China to ally with the west against Russia or at least cut economic ties with Russia. A very unlikely expectation, as China understands that it is next, if Russia should succumb to west. 

Iran, China and Russia have the BRICS economic hope for their future and it is under threat in many places. Their hope is for an economic future not dependent or subservient to the west and it should be realized that no matter how the pressure increases, this alliance, now mostly economic, will not be broken.

Much has been made of the fact that neither Russia or China came to the military aid of Iran in the 12 day war. This was mostly because Iran refused an offer of a military alliance with Russia, claiming that they felt they could stand on their own. The reality is that if Russia or Iran appear to be on the brink of defeat, China will be forced to come to their aid as they understand they will be next.

We are in fact already in WW3, but at his time it is still mostly economic and political, because the west realizes it is not equipped, except for nuclear weapons, to prevail. Time is on the side of the opposition as the west has lost its manufacturing capacity, its unity and is losing its economic clout to force submission. 

As this conflicts continues Europe is weakened by shortages of energy and the U.S. is further damaged by a loss of military equipment, it cannot replace quickly. The rapidly increasing debt will soon create an economic crisis in most western countries, yet they still double down on their strategy, rather than seek a new era of cooperation and mutual prosperity. It seems they are destined to go down with the ship and possibly take the world down with them.

 

Will there be a real effort at "Russian collusion" accountability?

 TALKING ABOUT OBAMA AND CLINTON IS NOT HOW YOU DO REAL INVESTIGATIONS

INDICTMENTS START AT THE BOTTOM

We hear in the last week much talk about accountability for past administrations abuse of power and conspiracies to perform a soft coup on the president of the United States. While that is all likely true, we will know if it is serious, if we see indictments and actions taken from those at the lowest rung of the ladder. 

There is substantial proof that there was many instances of perjury from officials who signed FISA documents, when they knew it to be false. We have televisions proof of former DNI, James Clapper, lying under oath, in testimony to congress that the NSA does not gather information on all American citizens. Then the true whistleblower Edward Snowden, needed to flee the country, knowing he would be killed if apprehended for revealing just the opposite. Snowden should be pardoned if there is really an effort to make people accountable. I suspect that illegal collection of information is still ongoing.

How about the phony indictment by the Muller probe of Russian hackers, when they knew and there is documentation that there was never a hack of the Clinton emails or the DNC, but it was saved to a thumb drive and handed to Wikileaks. Julian Assange should also be pardoned and asked to testify. If you remember the Russian lawyers showed up and asked for disclosure to go to trial and Muller suddenly ended the indictment. Many of Muller's team knew they were chasing lies.

How about the documented proof that CIA director Pompano wanted to assassinate Assange and his family.

What about the 51 former intelligence officials who lied on the eve of an election that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation, many had first hand knowledge that it was not.

Then there is collaboration between Adam Schiff and so called White House whistleblowers who started the Ukraine impeachment hoax.

How about Vidman and others who leaked White House conversations to discredit the President when he asked crooked Zelensky about the Ukrainian corruption with the Biden's.

There is a long list of low hanging fruit down at the bottom of the ladder, that is where the real accountability needs to happen.

Then there is Victoria Nuland, instrumental in the $5 billion of U.S. funds spent on the Ukraine revolution and other regime operations. I suspect there is a long trail of money to be followed.

I could go on and on, the abuses and lying and disinformation will take years to unravel, this occurred in both Democrat and Republican administrations and has resulted in a serious loss of credibility both at home and around the world. The methods and disgraceful tactics taken around the world have come home and have become the methods used to retain power and damage adversaries, if not dealt with, no matter how painful, this country will not survive. 

The conservative movement will not end with Trump.

 PRESENT POLITICAL ALIGNMENT HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR 30 YEARS

IT IS NOT CONTROLLED BY ONE MAN

While many still believe the present direction of the nations politics will end with the end of the Trump presidency, they need to realize that Trump was able to tap into a movement that preceded him and will continue after he is gone.

The disillusionment of the electorate first manifested itself with the 1994 election, for the first time since WW2, Republicans took control of the Senate and House. In fact, Bill Clinton's election 1992 was a rejection of George Bush 1 who reneged on many of his campaign promise with months of swearing in. He also had to contend with internal opposition from Ross Perot and Pat Buchanan.

In fact in hindsight, Bush 1 began the series of forever wars in the middle east with the first war in Iraq. 

The electorate rebelled about National healthcare, gun control and gays in the military. Issues that were attempted to be forced upon the citizens without any common support. Clinton himself actually was able to work with the Republicans in an effort to balance the budget and reform welfare. His downfall was the baggage of the rest of his party and his wife.

Bush 2 was sold as more conservative than his father, but again, a disappointment to many and only was reelected because of the ongoing terrorist war at the time. much of it resulting from seeds sown in the first gulf war.

Obama was able to convince the electorate that he was a fresh outsider who would be more in tune with the electorate. He immediately set out to force through National health care by many unorthodox means without a broad consensus and destroyed many of the gains in race relations in a short time. He also reigned over regime change wars all over the middle east. His policies resulted in the 2010 rise of Tea Party and a decline in the unity of the country that continues. 

Trump came on the scene and was immediately embraced as an outsider who was more intune with electorate. He promised a change of direction and rooting out of the corruption and excesses of Washington. While there much suspicion and cynicism about what happens in Washington, after only 6 months, the final outcome of things is still up in the air. 

Trump's political career will be over in 3 years, but I think the political world is forever changed, not by Trump, but by a progression of a movement that is ongoing for now decades. It has been aided by the death of the usual media, a rise in alternative sources of information and a new influx of a politically tuned young generation. While Republicans have benefited from this movement, they do not hold a lock on the new voters. Party affiliation is  now more about results than ideology.

Restoring trust should be U.S. priority.

 LOSS OF GOVERNMENT CREDIBILITY CAN BE FATAL

U.S. CREDIBILITY IS POOR, BOTH AT HOME AND ABROAD

The biggest reason that Donald Trump is now president is that the electorate was disillusioned with past presidents who made campaign promises and then after elected, proceeded to often do the exact opposite. Trump was viewed as an outsider, as was Barack Obama. Traditional candidates, like Jeb Bush, were rejected because they no longer had any credibility. Today the electorate, I suspect on both sides of the isle, are suspicious of and cynical about the credibility of all political leaders. With "Weapons of mass destruction" and other trumped up reasons for war and a lack of accountability for obvious law breaking, like the "Russian collusion hoax" the credibility of government at home and aboard is on life support.

Whether Trump's opponents will admit or not, Trump has made a sincere effort to enact his campaign promises. He has not involved the U.S. in war, as yet, even though the pressure from within and without has been enormous. From the border control to attempting to set a new course in foreign policy and hopes to improve trade fairness, he is at least trying.

Lately we have seen the uproar from his supporters concerning the Epstein situation, it is an example of the distrust of the electorate, who believe his administration has been less than credible. It is a red flag of, "here we go again", and is unacceptable.

We witness the same kind of duplicity and ham fisted amateur Machevealians in foreign policy. Sneak attacks while negotiating and other dishonest attempts, that will only exasperate any true negotiations in the future. Real diplomats must be trusted, and if there are attempts from within or from allies to discredit these negotiations, they need to be exposed. It is the only way to end these tactics.

The same applies to both sides of the isle, the past 10 years of government lies and chaos must be corrected, this includes exposing the attempted coup with the Russian collusion hoax, impeachments, lawfare, and obvious lying under oath by government intelligence official and others. There needs to be transparency and accountability, no matter how painful, to heal the distrust and lack of credibility of government. While those responsible will suffer, the country may be saved and that should the be priority of all Americans, if they hope to be unified to meet the challenges of the future.

No secret as to how to end Ukraine conflict.

 RUSSIA'S OBJECTIVES ARE CLEAR AND UNCHANGED

EVERY DAY UKRAINE'S FUTURE BECOMES DIMMER

We continually hear that Trump and others are disappointed that Putin does not agree to a ceasefire or is willing to end the conflict in Ukraine. It seems they are mystified as to what it will take to end this conflict. The reality is that they still believe they can prevail in this conflict even though Ukraine is destined to become a shadow of a country that it could have been without this conflict.

Russia's objectives are as clear today as they were in the months leading up to conflict, no NATO in Ukraine on its eastern border, no NATO troops in Ukraine, human rights guarantees for the Russian population and Ukraine a neutral, not militarily aligned country.. An agreement on those issues could have preserved Ukraine's territorial boundaries, with the exception of Crimea, 3 years ago. No one has yet to agree to those objectives, not Ukraine, not NATO and not the U.S. 

Trump and other have acknowledged that NATO membership could be negotiated, understanding that the U.S. would never allow a foreign military alignment in Canada or Mexico. Most American's are not that objective and their answer has been consistently, FU, Russia cannot make such demands. 

So the fighting goes on, Russia in the beginning, was disorganized and not very effective, they hoped that a show of force would convince Ukraine to accept its proposals and within weeks it appeared that a settlement had been reached, but Boris Johnson, we can assume, representing NATO convinced Ukraine to hold firm. Russia then retreated from areas that it felt it could not at that time defend and the rest is history. They have since increased their military, expanded production and are now a well honed fighting machine, far more formidable than when this began.

Russia, rather than invade deep into Ukraine have been able to keep the fighting close to their border. While many claim this is an indication of weakness, it is part of a strategy to decimate Ukraines fighting force and also force a long logistic route for Ukraine and for a possible NATO force. Russia would like to fight this battle on the eastern part of Ukraine, which was to their advantage in all previous wars in their history. 

This war could be ended quickly, if Russia's demands are agreed to, at present that is not the case. Trump's negotiations are dead after the using of negotiations as a cover for the drone attack on their strategic bombers. Russia is not going to agree to a situation with NATO troops in western Ukraine, with a ceasefire, that allow Ukraine to rearm and reorganize. At present it looks like this war will continue until Ukraine is totally exhausted and begs for mercy.

While the Europeans and Lindsey Graham threaten and dream of a massive European army, they do not have the internal will or resources to accomplish any of this. Trump does not support U.S. direct involvement with war with Russia. Proposed sanctions on China, India and Brazil and others will no doubt damage the U.S. and Europe more than Russia. These countries can not submit to such intimidation from the U.S. 

In the meantime, Ukraine is suffering terribly and is becoming smaller. It is likely to eventually lose Odessa, which will make Ukraine a dependent and third world country for decades to come. Dependent on the very engineers of this catastrophe, which will no longer see any value in supporting Ukraine.

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE QUESTION IS NOT IF, BUT WHEN? 

 

Watching the news we see economic crises worldwide. While we are not currently in a major downturn, we have been sort of treading water for the last 8 years. The  underlying problems with most economies, particularly western Europe and the United States, have not improved. In fact, the amount of debt and the future ability to deal with a downturn is a lot more unstable than before. The amount of debt held by Western countries, businesses and individuals, has actually increased since 2007. This election year we hear from some who believe if we just raise taxes on the wealthy all will be well. Others contend that all will be well if we can just instill confidence that a solution is near. Sorry. All will not be well. Taxes would have to be doubled in most cases, which will cause an economic collapse, or government spending would have to be cut in half, which will also cause a collapse.

Of course the problem is that there has been an accumulation of extraordinary debt by all governments, corporations, and individuals. There is not a precedent for this situation in human history. While the housing bubble was the symptom that was burst, when gas rose to $4.00 a gallon, in the US the massive debts held by everyone was the real problem. Debts of individuals can be traced to central banks that have not been willing to clear excess debts since the early 1980’s. Instead, they have encouraged and enabled individuals to borrow beyond their means to repay. We now see a classic debt collapse scenario where people are having a hard time servicing the debt they have and banks are raising standards to stop losses...with the economy stagnating until the debts are reduced to normal levels. This may take decades rather than years. 　

A far bigger problem is the debt of governments, particularly in Western Europe and the US. These debts are a direct result of massive spending and the whole idea of democratic socialism where votes were bought by promising unsustainable benefits...to individuals, spending on projects, surveys, studies, ad nauseum... to the well connected. When fulfilling these promises could not be sustained by raising taxes they just borrowed the money to be consumed. The spending on projects, etc. is more easily addressed by just saying "NO"...BUT the spending on benefits is much more difficult to address. The real culprit in all this is that socialism has been a dismal failure whenever it has been tried. I should qualify that by distinguishing between voluntary and involuntary socialism.

Voluntary socialism is self limiting. An example is fire insurance. If the incidence of loss becomes excessive, premiums go up and some people may refuse to buy insurance. If losses become excessive insurance companies may refuse to enter that market. There are natural limits for both parties.

The first instance of collectivist failure was recorded in the New Testament. The early Christians, thinking that the end was near, sold there possessions, dined together and shared with each other. It was not long until Paul, hearing complaints from the responsible members of the community, wrote to them saying, “He who does not work shall not eat.” Human nature and the voluntary basis of this experiment was a natural remedy.

Another example was the Puritans who landed in Plymouth in 1620. They formed the, "Mayflower Compact," an agreement to share all property and work in common. After 3 years of this experiment, they were barely able to survive. The Puritan's endeavor had been financed by investors in Europe who hoped they would reap a profit by the Puritans repaying their debts with furs and other goods. After 3 years of no return, investors refused to send any more support and the idea was scrapped. The Puritans then distributed land to each family and they were on their own - the result was the beginning of prosperity for all.  It was chronicled by William Bradford that while the number of people who were either too weak or incapable of work grew, and the young and motivated were increasingly unhappy with the communal arrangement, many who formally were unable to add much to the community instantly became more productive when they were able to keep the fruits of their labor.

Remember the 1960’s  communes, where a few self motivated people bought a ranch and lived off the land? It was not long until they were supporting a larger and larger number of new disciples, who agreed it was wonderful, except for the motivation part. Again it ended in a natural turn of events and human nature.

Now to involuntary socialism. Of course the greatest example has to be the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. This experiment was immediate total government control that in the end was a dramatic failure. It may take Russia several generations to recover from the debacle. While touted by Socialists as the wonderful system of the future, (including Eleanor Roosevelt who visited the country many times in the 1930s when the worst atrocities were being committed), Solzhenitsyn and others saw and reported the true nature of the experiment. It's interesting to note that from the revolution in the USSR in 1917 to its collapse in 1989 was 72 years. If we take 1935 as the "embrace of socialism" in western Europe and the US, we end up at 2007. Does it take roughly this long for the failures of socialism to become unsustainable? While we have not had total control by the governments of western Europe or the US, we have been progressing in that direction for decades...hence the term progressivism. It has been a slow incremental movement that has taken control of most industries through regulation and has encouraged dependency by promising a safety net to those displaced by their policies. The part of the private sector that has not been effectively controlled by the government is the food and energy sector. They are in the process of taking over the energy sector and when they can control food they will have complete control of the economy and the people. Remember the winners of socialist economies are the ruling class who often live well off on what they skim off of the redistribution schemes. Even in the Soviet Union they lived well in their dachaus and had access to  travel and benefits that could only be dreamed of by the rest of the population.

While it all appears wonderful in theory, Unchangeable Human Nature has not been taken into account. Humans will help each other to some extent, but most will not jeopardize their or their families well-being for others. On a voluntary basis, many are willing to help those in need, in danger, etc. but as soon as it becomes involuntary, there will be resistance. This is just the nature of human survival instincts. While it may not measure up to the expectations of the ideologues of socialism, it is probably superior to all other organisms on earth. The Soviet experiment ended when there were no longer any incentives left. The Russians who have weathered one form of dictatorship for their whole existence were noted to remark to each other, "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us." In the end the only prospering part of the economy was the black market and flea markets.

So what has happened in every case of involuntary socialism?  Those who believe they are taxed too much will resist by finding ways to pay less; those who believe they are restricted in some way will find ways around the restrictions. Too much tax will usually create less revenue, etc. At first this is accepted or minimally enforced, but as the deficits grow, enforcement must increase and we see a cycle of increased enforcement, then less activity, then less revenue and if left to follow a linear path to forced labor and slavery.

In the U.S. there was once a work ethic and pride of self reliance - many would not accept charity -but after decades of increasing regulation and taxation it seems all restraint has fallen off and everyone will take and pursue more benefits, even if liquidating assets and claiming poverty is necessary. The dam has broken. The tipping point has been reached. It will not likely be restored by government action, or by acts of Congress; the same applies to Western Europe.

So what is the solution? At this point there is no easy solution. All solutions will require much pain and suffering. It may be limited by economic suffering and the necessary austerity to liquidate the debt and begin a new start with liberty and self reliance the foundation...OR...it may be that more enforcement will be needed until we return to feudal type society where basic necessities will be provided to the productive and compliant and those that do not conform will be eliminated from society by the powers that be. This is the question that will be answered when the coming collapse reaches its fulfillment.

originally published 2/11/2016

update 9/1/22   We are about to see the fulfillment of this narrative, possibly within months in Western Europe and then on to the U.S.

update 3/10/2023  We see the new budget is increased by 1 Trillion dollars. Debt of over 31 Trillion. Inflation destroying buying power. It is all unsustainable. 

update 11/16/2023, all the problems are now more severe, $34 trillion debt, $2 trillion deficit. Bond market in trouble. Any attempts to fiscal responsibility labeled extreme. 

update 5/24/2024, U.S. now incurring debt at the rate of $1 trillion every 100 days. Gold $2450 oz. While all seems well, it is all unsustainable, Economic crisis on the horizon.

Update 2/19/2025. U.S. debt nears $37 trillion. Gold $2940. Trump and DOGE attempt to reform spending and fraud in budget. Many would rather go down with the ship than change this unsustainable course.

Update 7/21/2025. U.S. debt now over $37 Trillion. deficit near $2 Trillion. Gold $3300 per oz. All unsustainable.

A brief history of money.

A BRIEF HISTORY OF MONEY

Money, we are all familiar with it, most want more, some to the point of  excess. It has been described as the, "Root of all Evil".  Realistically, we do need a certain amount, but I would like to talk about a simple brief history of Money.

Originally, most financial transactions were a form of barter,"I'll trade you a goat for that woven shirt that one of your wives made". Or,"I am tired of goats, how about we trade for some of your sheep". This all worked out well and good, but eventually someone got the bright idea of converting wealth to some form of exchange.

There is some record of salt being a form of exchange, or round stones with holes,  but most items were quick to lose their value when someone either found a pit with enough salt to flood the market or a method to mass produce stones with holes.

Eventually they settled on gold and silver as a form of money. Early records show that, as early as 2150 BC, the Shekel and Talent were used in the middle east, These were measures of weight,  A shekel was .36 of a troy weight oz. A Talent was equal to 60 manehs and 3000 shekels. This standard of weight was used by Egypt, Babylon, Phoenicia, Greece, Persia etc.  The ratio was 15 shekel's of silver = 1 shekel of gold.  Everyone had a balance scale to do business.

Finally, as governments grew and became more sophisticated, the minting of money began. This consisted of coins which were of a standardized weight, usually embossed with the image of  the King or individual in power at the time. It made trade much simpler and  must have caused a recession in the scale business.

As is usually the case, it did allow for some skulduggery, clipping and shaving of coins was known to happen. Then Kings sometimes made the coins smaller with the same designation. This may have been the first form of Government endorsed inflation.  "Honey, were did we put that old scale?"

Interestingly, the size and weight of coins varied over the years, but the ratio of gold to silver was fairly constant from 500 BC up to the 20th Century.

Biblical  times-  12-1             Rome          12-1         Europe     0-1492        10-1

Early Greece      13-1             Early Japan  8-1                          1492-1834   15-1

Alexander          10-1             Early China  12-1        England                       16-1

The United States settled on the ratio of 15-1  The Constitution stated that all money was to be gold or silver coin.

O course, we have been talking about gold and silver coins. What about paper money?

In medieval Europe, gold and silver was the medium of exchange. When someone had a little more than needed for survival, they often placed it with a Goldsmith, who had a natural need for security in his business.  He would account for their items and give them a receipt.  The Rothschild's started out this way.  Humans sometimes being a little lazy, and not too careful about things, began to exchange the receipts for other goods and services and leave the gold with the goldsmith.  Goldsmiths, who were a little sharper than the average person of the day, soon realized that his receipts were as good as gold, and no one knew how much gold he really had stored for people. He was able to purchase Real-Estate, finance explorers to the new world and many other endeavors with his own receipts that did not represent gold in his possession. I could expound forever about how they used this power, but I will resist.

There were many known instances were these early bankers got a little too greedy, rumors circulated  that there was more receipts than gold, and a run for their gold started.  When they could not produce the gold,  he might have been found hanging somewhere.

Remember, Politicians and Governments always take note of a good idea to increase their power and wealth.

Early paper money was a receipt for a weight of gold or silver, In the USA. a silver dollar was .7734 troy oz. of silver.  20 silver dollars could be exchanged for 1 Oz. troy of gold, a $20 gold piece. This was a ratio of 15-1. I personally remember silver certificates, which were supposed to be redeemable for 1 silver dollar. Up to 1934 you could exchange a $20 bill for a $20 gold coin. The US dollar had the reputation of being, "as good as gold". The gold-silver ratio today is 72-1.

In 1914, with passage of the Federal Reserve Act,  money no longer represented an asset, but would now represent Government debt. A promise to repay by the government.

In 1934, President Franklin Roosevelt, by executive order, ordered all citizens to turn in their Gold Coins in exchange for paper $20.00 bills. Private possession, or exchange of gold was outlawed. When the government decided they had confiscated all the gold they were going to get, they raised the price of gold to $35.00 oz., this was used for trade between countries. Those wonderful paper dollars they exchanged with the citizenry just became worth 43% less than the gold coins they exchanged.  Citizens were threatened with $10,000 fines and 10 years in jail for not cooperating.  Gold ownership was again legalized in December of 1974.

Silver still circulated as coins till 1964,  when they were replaced by alloys with no intrinsic value.

So now all money that exists, has  no intrinsic value, but only the confidence that someone else will exchange goods and services for it. While there are many instances in modern history where that confidence evaporated, so far most people are still willing to accept modern currency.

Currency itself is now in the process of being replaced with electronic currency, Bitcoin, Debit and Credit cards etc.. Endless possibilities, that will make the ancient clippers, shavers and dishonest goldsmiths envious.

originally published Oct. 12, 2015

It appears we are now coming to the end of fiat currency era, that is currency without any real built in value. What will replace it is yet to be seen. Big government would of course love to have currency that is just a digital entry, that they could manipulate, block, or devalue with a click of a computer. It seems some of the world is exploring another option that would be some form of real money. There is one of those age old truths that good money will always drive out bad money. That is true as long as there is an option of good money available. I expect we will seeing the new options in the near future. 
5/8/23

We now see the plan to introduce a central bank digital currency. Indeed, a monetary unit without any intrinsic value, unable to be held personally. It will allow governments to view every transaction, determine what transactions should be allowed, confiscate all wealth with the click of a computer key and in effect give government ultimate power over the people. It will be the end of all freedom of choice in a free market. It will give government the ability to tax, inflate, confiscate and dictate what can and cannot be traded. It will create all kinds of methods to avoid this trap and will be accompanied with the penalties to enforce that this is the only alternative money.

8/24/23

We can expect the unsustainable debt and deficits of the United States, accompanied by the desire of other countries to flee the use of the dollar, to reach a crisis in the near future. It is very likely that it will soon be clear that this debt will no longer find those willing to risk this haven for their real money. We can expect schemes to rescue this situation with possibly forced investment by IRA and 401's into U.S. debt or a sudden crisis followed by the end of this current fiat money system. We expect the cure to be total control of all assets.

5/3/2024

The EU is pushing to get its CBDC launched this year. As the debt situation in most of the western world is escalating many predict some sort of reset of the financial system. It will most likely be preceded by a debt crisis and then the roll out of the promised solution.

9/27/2024

We now see flight from U.S. bonds from countries around the world. It seems that interest rates are now possibly needed to rise to sell this debt. Those liquidating U.S. debt seem to be buying Monetary metal. The answer to shoring up the U.S. dollar and debt market is a balanced budget. With a $2 trillion deficit either raising taxes or cutting spending will cause a economic recession at best.

1/14/25

The purpose of this article is to hope to make people aware of what money is supposed to be. A store of value, an asset, not an instrument of manipulation by governments. 

3/17/2025

Can interest on national debt be lowered by fed action?

 OR DO MARKET FORCES NOW CONTROL YIELD?

FED ACTION CAN INCREASE INFLATION

President Trump continues to criticize Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates. He believes that the Federal Reserve can save $1 Trillion in interest on the debt by lowering rates to 1%. While this all sounds very simple, it is unlikely that interest on the debt can be controlled completely by the federal reserve. 

If the Fed lowers rates it may cause a rebound in housing prices and building activity but it will also send a signal that higher inflation is ahead, especially in housing and building materials. The national debt, now $37 Trillion and rising by $2 Trillion a year is another matter. Interest rates rose after passage of the last budget as it sent the signal that inflation is going to increase, the buying power of the dollar is going to decrease and along with it the interest on the debt will likely continue to increase. 

Interest rates on the debt are set by market forces on treasury auctions and at present the only thing keeping them alive is that the rest of the world is also increasing debt and making the U.S. market somewhat stable by its size and history. Maybe the best of bad choices situation.

Foreign buyers of U.S. debt have been liquidating their holdings and moving into metals and other forms of assets. Much of this is in response to the massive deficits in the U.S. budget that indicate a continued loss of purchasing power for the dollar. While savers have enjoyed at least some return on their money within increased CD rates, I suspect much of this money is ending up in government debt, the fed can lower that rate, but it will be accompanied by another round of real estate malinvestment and speculation.

Real efforts to decrease government interest payments would be by actual fiscal responsibility and cutting deficits and lowering the debt, without that it is just another kicking of the problem down the road, when it may be very soon out of road.

Did Trump inherit Epstein's compromised assets?

 REVELATIONS WOULD DESTROY THEIR USEFULNESS

LEVERAGE FOR ANYONE WHO HAS THE INFORMATION

The Epstein saga continues, with more informations being revealed daily, along with much speculation. Most agree that Epstein was in the business of comprising influential people and also that the he was most likely working for one or more intelligence agencies, most likely Mossad. Other than that it seems the details have been very successfully kept hidden.

It is likely that the Trump administration, by controlling the FBI and other government agencies, has access to most of the details. Before being elected it was promised all would be revealed, but as we now see they are claiming to move on and that nothing is here. So, what has happened, has the administration been compromised by powerful forces or has the administration realized that this information is very valuable and may be able to actually protect them from powerful forces. Is this information now an insurance policy that can be leveraged to aid the administration in its fight with the so called deep state, both domestically and internationally.

The outcry from inside the base is very loud and real and is going to put enormous pressure on the Trump administration. The opposition who also was involved in keeping most of this quite, is now using it as weapon against Trump. I expect all this will continue, but It seems the decision has been made to keep this under wraps and move on, it is unlikely that will change.

This is of course is just another speculation along with others about what is happening here and is not an effort to look for justification. The reality is that we are in fact being lied to no matter the reasons, only time will tell if it all will be worthwhile in the end. 

Managing the warmongers.

 SO FAR, TRUMP HAS KEPT U.S. OUT OF DIRECT INVOLVEMENT IN WAR

BUT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO END INDIRECT INVOLVEMENT

We see that the war in Ukraine continues and most everyone believes Iran 2.0 is inevitable. Yet, so far Trump has been able to avoid direct participation in these wars, other than the dropping of some bombs on Iran, another effort to satisfy those desiring war.

Yesterday, we witnessed a white house meeting where Trump agreed to sell lots of weapons to NATO that are expected to be gifted to Ukraine, weapons that are actually not available in numbers to be very consequential. An effort that may keep the warmonger's silent at least for the next 50 days when Trump may be pressured agree to massive tariffs on China and India, an idea that will damage the U.S. more than Russia and will drive more countries into the BRICS union.

Then there is Netanyahu and the Israel lobby who spent days in Washington without, at least visibly, any commitment for the U.S. to go to war with Iran. It seems pretty clear that Trump does not want to go to war with Iran, a likely drawn out affair that would distract from more pressing issues.

It is clear that the powers in Washington desire to run foreign policy and are willing to allow presidents to have their way on domestic issues. This was very clear during the Obama and Biden administrations which seemed to have a free hand at racial baiting and then just plain domestic chaos as long as they could engage in war around the world. 

It must be very dangerous to outright reject these powers, hence the attempts to manage them without directly rejecting their desire for more war. The Ukraine thing may be more in the hands of the Russians at this point, as no amount of weapons without direct involvement of NATO will change the outcome.

As for Iran/Israel. Israel will need to regroup and resupply to re engage with Iran, which without the direct involvement of the U.S., would be a risky bet. It may take some time to produce defensive weapons for Israel to feel comfortable to attack Iran.

The reality is without U.S. involvement, war becomes a very risky affair. That applies to most of the world, at least for now. 

Trump may have a couple of months without massive pressure for war, we will see, but it seems those desiring war are very persistent and very devious in ways to trap presidents into more war.

Not THE List, but an Epstein list.

 MULTIPLE HUNDREDS ASSOCIATED WITH EPSTEIN

MANY MAY BE INNOCENT OF WRONGDOING

Below is a list of prominent people who were involved with Jeffrey Epstein, this list was compiled from court records or other public documents. It no way indicates that they were in involved in wrongdoing, but they may be able to shed light on what was the motive of Epstein's massive operation. 

from Sonar21

This is only a small number of the actual people who were involved with Epstein. I suspect more names will be coming out in the days ahead. 

The major questions still unanswered are:

1. Where did the Hundreds of Millions of dollars come from that financed this operation?

2. What was the motive of this operation?

3. Was this a massive foreign or domestic intelligence operation?

4. Explain the contradiction that if there are tapes of individuals involved with children as the AJ claims, they are guilty of breaking the law. There is a question even about if there were, so called, children, or just some under 18 individuals who were paid for their services. 

It should be noted that the age of consent in most states in the USA is 16, some are 17 and only a handful are 18. There has not been any indication that anyone was forced or restrained in these operations. While we continually hear of underage women, does anyone believe that this was the motive of this operation?

Many of those attending were there on scientific and other meetings that most likely did not have to do with sex. Where they there in an attempt to gain information about cutting edge technology? 

Lots of questions, and if nothing actually happened, why is Maxwell sentenced to 20 years. 

At present the consensus is growing that Epstein and Maxwell were involved with Israeli intelligence, as was Maxwell's father many years ago.

There are many indications that Epstein was murdered, not a suicide. I actually question if it is even possible to die by the methods described.  

I suspect that this whole affair is not going to fade away and will become a major scandal in U.S. history.

Is Israel's plan to settle the "Gazan Question" a rehash of "Madagascar Plan"?

 WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THERE IS NO PLACE TO GO

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF

One of the top items on the list in Netanyahu's trip to Washington was approval for the Israeli plan to move the population of Gaza out of the area. It seems there was no definitive agreement, at least not publicly.

This plan is openly being talked about in Israel and is intended to move the population of Gaza into a "concentrated area" in Rafiah. It is ironically being called a humanitarian zone. It is expected that it will be the only area were food water and other resources will be available in Gaza. It is also proposed this will be a staging area for the "voluntary" migration of these people out of Gaza.

There is speculation that this plan is going to be put into motion with or without Washington's approval, but the funding will be difficult without that approval.

No one answers where these people will be going and what will happen when they have nowhere to go or funding or war makes it impossible.

It is all reminiscent of the "Madagascar plan" proposed by some in Britain, Netherlands and Poland in 1937 as a solution to the "Jewish Question" going on in Europe at the time. The Germans sent teams to Madagascar to study the feasibility of the idea in 1940, but all efforts were scraped with outbreak of war.

That brought about the "final solution" and the rhetoric and the polices evolving in this situation are eerily reminiscent of the past.   

Azerbaijan's dangerous gamble.

 QUESTIONING AZERBAIJAN'S NATIONAL INTEREST

LIVING IN A DANGEROUS NEIGHBORHOOD

Recently Azerbaijan has been in the news. It seems there are indications that they have been complicit in the recent attack by Israel on Iran. At the same time, it seems they have been looking to magnify its disputes with Russia and neighbor Armenia. Azerbaijan is in the process of selling gas and oil to the EU with pipelines through Turkey, a good thing for the EU and Azerbaijan. At the same time it seems that foreign intelligence operatives are present in massive numbers and has decided that Azerbaijan can be a pivotal player in the ongoing global gamesmanship.

Since the first choice for a southern front, Georgia, has decided that it's best interest is to stay a neutral party and cultivate good relations with its northern neighbor Russia and the west. The older citizens of Georgia decided they did not want to become a southern version of Ukraine.

Azerbaijan is a majority Shia nation, same as Iran. This in itself makes allying with Israel by its leaders as a very risky proposition. Then to its north is Russia who is very sensitive to any of its neighbors deciding to be a military ally of the west, another risky proposition.

It seems it is also putting a lot of faith in Turkey, who has its own designs for the region and has proved to be a notorious double dealer. One has to wonder what promises the leaders of Azerbaijan have been sold in exchange for this desire to enter the global chess game in this very dangerous neighborhood.

Since the conflict in Ukraine is not going well, it has been the desire of the western powers to open a southern front against Russia and at the same time a northern front against Iran. Azerbaijan is positioned geographically to serve as that conduit for both conflicts. A very dangerous proposition for the citizens of Azerbaijan, one has to wonder where it views the positive in a reward/risk analysis. 

I suspect we will soon find out as the Ukrainian situation is dire and the next round with Iran will be sooner rather than later.

Punishing BRICS validates its existence.

 ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC SYSTEM INEVITABLE

TRADE IS BEING CONDUCTED IN NATIONAL CURRENCIES

We hear that Trump threatens to impose a 10% tariff on any country that is part of the BRICS economic group. This is just one more move added to sanctions and asset freezes that will encourage more countries to join the alternative to the present global trading system. While some call it an attempt to attack the dollar as the global reserve currency, it is alternative not a replacement. In fact the BRICS members are unanimous, at this point, that they do not want to replace the dollar with another national currency, as they fear it will just lead to same abuses that are plaguing the current system.

As for the dollar, the dollar is being threatened by the United States out of control and unsustainable deficits and debt. Producing countries are balking at taking, keeping or investing in a currency that is continually losing buying power. The dollar is no longer "As good as Gold". The move is to conduct cross border transactions in each nations own currencies in a new trading platform that is gaining acceptance. It is quicker and less costly that he current SWIFT system.

When the dollar became the global reserve currency, the United States was the undisputed manufacturing leader, the dollar could buy almost any item produced in the United States, that is no longer the reality. At the same time, keeping or buying U.S. treasury bonds is viewed as a  risky and losing investment. Any attempt to force or intimidate others to hold or use dollars will just validate the need for an alternative.

The latest U.S. budget with its continuing massive deficits sent a message to the world that there is no effort for the U.S. to address its financial irresponsibility. The bond market declined, interest on those bonds increased, and it will add to future deficits and debt. It also makes it unlikely that domestic interest rates can be lowered and in fact may be forced to rise. It also will likely result in increased inflation.

The United States can not force or intimidate others to accept the dollar, only by making the dollar a sound means of financial stability will encourage others to desire to hold that currency. 

Sex trafficking was not Epstein's motive, just a tool.

 

 NO ONE IS ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS

WHO WAS EPSTEIN'S EMPLOYER?

We again hear all the talk about who was on Epstein's airplane? Who visited his island in the Caribbean? Who attended his parties in New York or Who spent time in his New Mexico ranch? It is all a frivolous distraction from the real issues involved with the affairs of Epstein and Giselle Maxwell. Everyone wants to focus on sex and sex trafficking to important people. Every name that is listed is now called a client, an intentional distraction from what the real questions should be.

Where did Jeffrey Epstein's money come from? No one asks and no one has yet to unravel where all the money came from. It does not appear that Epstein or Maxwell received any money from his supposed clients. So we are to assume he just arranged all these meetings and extravagant parties just to rub shoulders with the rich and famous? A distraction from the real motives for sure.

Then we are to believe that every person that was involved with Epstein was interested in underage women. This is just a distraction from Epstein's far bigger operation. He was able to arrange funds for charitable groups, He was able to find funds for research into medical and other endeavors. He was instrumental in getting the Clinton foundation off the ground. In defense of Clinton he was involved with Epstein in his fundraising and political issues, no one knows if sex had anything to do with Clinton's association. 

The intentional attempt to tie Donald Trump to Epstein has been obvious, a couple of pictures from some gatherings, but no mention of Trump's barring Epstein from Mar-a-logo. Many people knew Epstein, many people attended functions with Epstein, but no one has yet testified as to what these connections entailed.

It has been reported that in Epstein's New York mansion, every room in the house was wired for video and sound with a control room maintained by a permanent staff. Has anyone ever interviewed this staff? Has anyone ever seen these recordings? It is also claimed this same situation was conducted on the island and the ranch. Are we to suppose that Epstein was blackmailing these people for money? It is unlikely that such a thing would have not gotten around in those circles.

If you see the list of contacts, we see judges, we see renowned professors, we see leaders in industry, elected officials, all people with recognition and possible influence. I would expect that many of them are very carful people who knew better than be placed in a compromising position, but if only a small percentage took the bait, whatever that bait was, girls, boys, money, drugs or bribery this information could be stored, maybe for years, until a favorable ruling was needed, or a treatise from some professor on some issue or a close vote in some parliament or senate. The question is, who was behind Epstein's compromise business? A very big business.

Intelligence agencies have been known to target people who may be successful in the future as early as college years. Time when many engage in youthful activities that they would refrain from later in life. Many are also recruited in college for different roles. They are always looking to who may be an important person in the future. Most of these files and information may be worthless, but a few may be very valuable in the future. 

Again, no one is asking what was Epstein and Maxwell's motives? Who was their employer and where did they get all that money? Where are all the tapes and recordings? Where are all the files? Was their employer a government agency like the CIA or Mi6 or both, or a private group with a more sinister motive? Again, it is easier to chase stories of innuendo concerning sex and moral failings of the rich and famous rather than even ask the real questions that should be answered.

Originally published 1/4/24