ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC SYSTEM INEVITABLE
TRADE IS BEING CONDUCTED IN NATIONAL CURRENCIES
We hear that Trump threatens to impose a 10% tariff on any country that is part of the BRICS economic group. This is just one more move added to sanctions and asset freezes that will encourage more countries to join the alternative to the present global trading system. While some call it an attempt to attack the dollar as the global reserve currency, it is alternative not a replacement. In fact the BRICS members are unanimous, at this point, that they do not want to replace the dollar with another national currency, as they fear it will just lead to same abuses that are plaguing the current system.
As for the dollar, the dollar is being threatened by the United States out of control and unsustainable deficits and debt. Producing countries are balking at taking, keeping or investing in a currency that is continually losing buying power. The dollar is no longer "As good as Gold". The move is to conduct cross border transactions in each nations own currencies in a new trading platform that is gaining acceptance. It is quicker and less costly that he current SWIFT system.
When the dollar became the global reserve currency, the United States was the undisputed manufacturing leader, the dollar could buy almost any item produced in the United States, that is no longer the reality. At the same time, keeping or buying U.S. treasury bonds is viewed as a risky and losing investment. Any attempt to force or intimidate others to hold or use dollars will just validate the need for an alternative.
The latest U.S. budget with its continuing massive deficits sent a message to the world that there is no effort for the U.S. to address its financial irresponsibility. The bond market declined, interest on those bonds increased, and it will add to future deficits and debt. It also makes it unlikely that domestic interest rates can be lowered and in fact may be forced to rise. It also will likely result in increased inflation.
The United States can not force or intimidate others to accept the dollar, only by making the dollar a sound means of financial stability will encourage others to desire to hold that currency.
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