Azerbaijan's dangerous gamble.

 QUESTIONING AZERBAIJAN'S NATIONAL INTEREST

LIVING IN A DANGEROUS NEIGHBORHOOD

Recently Azerbaijan has been in the news. It seems there are indications that they have been complicit in the recent attack by Israel on Iran. At the same time, it seems they have been looking to magnify its disputes with Russia and neighbor Armenia. Azerbaijan is in the process of selling gas and oil to the EU with pipelines through Turkey, a good thing for the EU and Azerbaijan. At the same time it seems that foreign intelligence operatives are present in massive numbers and has decided that Azerbaijan can be a pivotal player in the ongoing global gamesmanship.

Since the first choice for a southern front, Georgia, has decided that it's best interest is to stay a neutral party and cultivate good relations with its northern neighbor Russia and the west. The older citizens of Georgia decided they did not want to become a southern version of Ukraine.

Azerbaijan is a majority Shia nation, same as Iran. This in itself makes allying with Israel by its leaders as a very risky proposition. Then to its north is Russia who is very sensitive to any of its neighbors deciding to be a military ally of the west, another risky proposition.

It seems it is also putting a lot of faith in Turkey, who has its own designs for the region and has proved to be a notorious double dealer. One has to wonder what promises the leaders of Azerbaijan have been sold in exchange for this desire to enter the global chess game in this very dangerous neighborhood.

Since the conflict in Ukraine is not going well, it has been the desire of the western powers to open a southern front against Russia and at the same time a northern front against Iran. Azerbaijan is positioned geographically to serve as that conduit for both conflicts. A very dangerous proposition for the citizens of Azerbaijan, one has to wonder where it views the positive in a reward/risk analysis. 

I suspect we will soon find out as the Ukrainian situation is dire and the next round with Iran will be sooner rather than later.