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Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Ukraine desperation, Will sanctions, tariffs work?

 TRUMP THREATENS RUSSIA, END WAR OR ELSE

THREATENING BRICS WILL SPEED ITS ADOPTION



Yesterday, Trump made it clear that he has shortened his ultimatum to Russia to now 10 or 12 days. One must assume that his analysts have made it clear that Ukraine is about to go belly up and that only a ceasefire will enable them to rearm and reorganize. Of course, Russia will not submit to these threats nor will the BRICS members, who Trump is threatening to put 100% tariffs on all of them. If enacted, it will be a signal to most of the world that the U.S. is desperate and it may be time to pull the plug on cooperation with the western world.

It should be clear that these new sanctions are to placed on Russia's trading partners, who are not going to jeopardize their economies to placate Washington.

It is unlikely that Trump will pull the trigger on these sanctions as it would be a dangerous gamble for the U.S. and western worlds economy. I suspect that Walmart, Amazon and other U.S. companies will advise him, that if enforced, it will destroy the U.S. retail market. Now that he has publicly made these threats, he is in a no win situation.

Then there is Europe, much of this Russian oil ends up in the EU market via India and others, if cut off, it will add to their economic woes. I also suspect that are not willing to put such tariffs on their BRICS suppliers.

So the danger is, that now that Trump has issued an ultimatum and he may not be able to enforce such a threat, he may be enticed to do some other escalation, like a long range attack on Moscow or an attempt take over Kaliningrad, Russia's territory in the Baltic. This coupled with the recent news that the U.S. has sent nuclear warheads to the UK, is again threatening to make a bad situation much worse.

Russia is not going to engage in a ceasefire without a plan to satisfy their security concerns and objectives. They have made this clear and should be believed.

The best outcome would for the west to swallow hard and make peace with Russia by insuring their security and thereby saving Ukraine from further devastation. That would need a large dose of humility and rational thinking, something that seems to be in short supply.



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