Intelligence as a tool, rather than facts.

 IT SEEMS MOST INTELLEGENCE IS NOW WORTHLESS

USED TO SHAPE POLICY RATHER THAN INFORM

We continue to hear about new negotiations and new breakthroughs in talks on important issues, yet there really is no progress. I suspect much of this has to do with negotiators acting on poor or intentionally misinforming intelligence. 

We can start with the Russia/Ukraine talks. Since even before the outbreak of hostilities the narrative has been the same. Russia will fold in weeks, it has no military resources, it will run out of ammunition, there will be a popular uprising at home. It has now been 4 years and no signs of any of this being true.  Within weeks of the onset of the present conflict Ukraine and Russia came to an agreement that would have left Ukraine intact, except for Crimea. It was sabotaged by the U.K. and U.S., telling Ukraine that Russia will be easily defeated. Every few weeks we hear of new efforts by negotiators going to Moscow for new talks. I suspect intelligence is telling these negotiators that Russia is now ready to quit, they will collapse any moment and nothing happens, because Russia's position is the same as it was in 2021. There will be no ceasefire, no end, until an agreement is reached that deals with the causes of the conflict. It will need to be in fact an actual treaty approved by the U.S. senate. Based on the quality of U.S. intelligence, that will never happen. 

In the middle east, lets face it, most intelligence comes for Mossad and it has proven to be tailored to accomplish goals of Israel rather than facts. From weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, to the present, Iran is within weeks of nuclear weapons,  has been the go to narrative for over 20 years. The goal is to get the U.S. into a major war with Iran that it has to fight to the end. I suspect that all intelligence coming out of Israel is suspect as to the truth. We hear that Iran is weak, now vulnerable and easy to defeat, once committed and with the loss of U.S. assets and troops, every president will be required to commit to winning at all costs.

We hear similar analysis about China, they are dependent on U.S. trade, in fact it seems many believe the world is dependent on U.S. trade. They believe that without U.S, trade the world economy will collapse. Are US trade decisions made on that assumption?   All negotiations and policies based on false assumptions and misleading information are destined to fail.

I suspect the Intelligence organizations in the west spend more time on interventions and covert actions and little on real intelligence gathering.  Much of the narrative is tailored by think tanks that are more in the business of fashioning policy than allowing elected officials to make informed decisions. The media reinforces these narratives by accepting leaks by these same intelligence operatives. I fear this will not be easy to correct until we all suffers a serious disaster.

Back to Iran, High tech vs countermeasures and mass.

 ANY WINNERS OR ONLY LOSERS

WILL TRUMP PULL THE TRIGGER THIS TIME?

We hear about the massive buildup of military assets for an expected attack on Iran, Again, it is only 1 week since the last aborted attack, is this another threat to demand submission or the real thing? It appears this time it is going to be a real conflagration and we will see who is standing, will there be a clear winner or just losers all.

The Israeli and U.S. demand that Iran not engage in any nuclear enrichment, even of electric generation or desalination, this demand was upped after Iran essentially agreed to end all higher enrichment. It is pretty clear that there really is no real effort at any negotiated settlement. The other major demand is that Iran essentially disarms its missile program, in effect, Iran agreeing to disarmament. This is the same tactics used in Libya and after Libya agreed, the country was destroyed and remains a failed state today. This is the hope, and it seems that Iran is not going to agree to these terms, and now it is going to be total military destruction. The remaining question is at what cost to those involved and the world economy.

The whole nuclear weapons narrative by Israel against Iran was as much a fake as the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. If Iran wanted nuclear weapons they would have had them long ago. Instead, they focused on a conventional weapons defense and that is also not acceptable.

So, it seems we are going to finally see a real life test of the U.S. technological superiority against the electronic counter measures to neutralize their effectiveness, that and a massive amount of missiles flying in all directions. Is it possible for all to not suffer major casualties? Will an attack end with regime change or will it just rally support from the Iranian citizens? Can Israel survive politically and economically? Will Egypt and Turkey and the many other groups in the region decide it is time for a final showdown? 

It seems that the gulf countries did refuse to let the U.S. use their airspace for the planned previous attack. That is why more aircraft carriers are now soon in position to launch this attack. I suspect they will also now be a major target for reprisals. The odds are high that his attack will draw in combatants from all around and lead to a major reginal conflict. Once the blood starts flowing it may not be easy to stop.

U.S. foreign policy, just transparent under Trump.

" RULES BASED ORDER", WE MAKE THE RULES, JUST OBEY THE ORDERS

NO ONE COMPLAINED IN THE LAST 30 YEARS

It is interesting to watch the outrage in the European community concerning Trump's declaration that the U.S. and world needs Greenland for world security. We are supposed to believe that Russia or China is planning a long range effort to encircle everyone from the north. No one complained when the narrative was about Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and now Venezuela, Cuba and of course the greatest threat to mankind, Iran. Then there is always the big threats from Russia and China threatening world domination.

We see 30 years of rules set by the U.S., then enforced as international law with sanctions, internal intervention, sabotage, chaos and disruption and then military action. Can we soon see internal protests in Greenland, lobbying for freedom from Denmark, or is that now so unnecessary, we will take it one way or another, what are you going to do about it ?, nothing, so why the pretense.

I suspect that no matter who the president of the U.S. is, the foreign policy has been consistent since 1988, only the window dressing and nice words are replaced with expediency and transparency. The message is, it is all good as long as you talk nice and cloud your desire for world domination with talk of democracy, freedom, human rights and the rules based order. Our rules, just follow the orders.

In some ways the present over the top policies are now similar to some live Melodrama with the hyperbole to match. Sometimes I wonder, should we really be concerned or should we be resigned to enjoy the entertainment? Is Trump a real villain or a Shakespearian actor preforming for the world? Opening a window into the hypocrisy and absurdity of the so called civilized world that talks nice, but is willing to condone death, destruction and genocide and no longer has the ability to even recognize what once was clear moral choices and convictions. 

The reality is the U.S. cannot afford the price of Greenland, either in money or moral standing, let alone afford the spending associated with the "Golden dome", a fantasy that has the military contractors salivating and potential adversaries making jokes. Bankrupt and devoid of a moral compass, it will be a hard landing into reality.

What derailed Iran attack?

 WILL THE RIGHT DECISION PREVAIL?

WAR NARRATIVE LIVES ON

Many marvel that the imminent attack on Iran was aborted at the very last minute, it is still not clear exactly what happened. While the narrative continues that an attack is still on, it is growing more unlikely as the days go by. So what happened?, we do have some solid evidence and a lot of speculation of what prompted the cancellation or postponement of an attack on Iran.

On the night of the attack, Iran had closed the air space over the country and the only planes flying were 2 Chinese aircraft incoming into Iran. It was reported that attack planes were in fact in the air and then suddenly recalled. No one has publicly stated what had happened. There are some facts that we know, Iran made it clear that any attack would be responded to with all out war from Iran. This was made clear to Israel, U.S. bases in the region and any Gulf countries allowing the use of their base or air space. This also threatened the closure of the straits of Hormuz. Some believe that the gulf countries withdrew their support for the use of their airspace and that made an attack much more complicated. There was talk of inquiring about using Pakistani airspace as an alternative. 

There were also reports that the U.S. military was very apprehensive about this plan and advised more assets were needed to insure a successful result. It seemed the plan was primarily an attempt to take out the military and political leadership and when they lost communication with assets on the ground, it would have then been impossible. This also coincided with an end to the major unrest in much of Iran.

Then there is the lingering rumors that Iran has acquired sophisticated electronic counter measures that made targeting and navigating aircraft unreliable. This was reported by Israeli pilots in an earlier attack. 

We now continue to hear that a carrier group is headed for the region and that after more assets are in the region another attack will commence. That contradicts the fact the the U.S. has now allowed personnel back into the gulf bases after evacuating them earlier. The reality is that no one is advising sending any ground troops into Iran and any attack will be responded to with a damaging response. Iran has already implemented a long line of leadership successors in case of the leaderships demise and an air attack will unlikely cause a replacement of the government.

The reality is an attack will likely disrupt oil supplies and cause a global economic crisis, possible severe damage to Israel and the gulf countries and is unlikely to result in regime change in Iran.   I suspect that everyone is now moving on to Greenland were there is much less risk.

Will Greenland go up for sale? Part 2.

 WHAT IS GREENLAND WORTH?

THE ULTIMATE REAL ESTATE DEAL

We hear much talk now of the U.S. buying Greenland from Denmark. Then you hear that Greenlanders want independence from Denmark, that in itself is a complication. Would the Greenland citizens be more open to becoming part of the United States, likely a territory? Donald Trump Jr., someone with experience in the real-estate business, was in Greenland yesterday, was he talking to the Danish or the Greenlanders?

Denmark, says not for sale, but that is often the beginning of business negotiations. Denmark is 1822 miles from Greenland, but only 500 miles from Maine. Denmark has a population of 6 million and Greenland a population of 57,000. Denmark has GDP of $404 billion. Greenland GDP $3.24 billion. Greenland has an area of 836,300 sq. miles, that translates to around 535 million acres. Only the coastal areas are ice free, the rest is ice covered and sometimes as much as a mile deep.

So, what is Greenland worth? Let's face it, it is not ocean front property in southern California or even farmland in Iowa. There is a reason that it has only slightly over 50,000 inhabitants, very few people would ever be willing to live there. I expect the young leave as soon as they are old enough to set out on their own.

So, will Denmark ever consent to selling Greenland? What if an offer was made and it was put up for a referendum? At $100 an acres it would be $535 billion, more than the annual GDP of Denmark.  At $200 an acre it would be over $1 Trillion, approaching 2 1/2 times the GDP. That would be around $18,000 per man women and child in Denmark, or $72,000 for a family of 4. Does anyone doubt that such a deal is possible?

Would it be good deal for the USA? If you are die hard believer in global warming you should be ready to pay lots for waterfront property, just not too close to the water, as it is now.  We could expect the leasing for mineral rights would be a windfall for the U.S. 

What about Denmark? Well they have had this territory for decades and done very little with it. They may not have the financial ability to ever develop it. Can they get more for it? Maybe, what about an auction, Is anyone else interested in this prime re-estate? Maybe China or even Russia, who has lots of experience in developing in the arctic. Wow, Who knows what Denmark could get in a competitive bidding contest? It would be the biggest Re-estate auction in world history.

We will see, as of now it is just the beginning of this possible deal, but don't be too sure that it will not be sold.

Originally posted 1/8/25

Update 1/20/26 

As the talk of Greenland heats up we can expect an offer may be made soon, While many say it is not for sale, when actual money starts being considered, I suspect most Danes, who have never been to Greenland and have no plans in going and it would not be hard for someone to convince a majority of Greenlanders that the price is right.

Denmark could make it a world spectacular event if they put it up for auction to the highest bidder and televise the deal. It would out sell the super bowl. Trump and Xi with paddles and maybe an anonymous phone bidder. If Denmark is smart they will demand payment in gold, not a truck load of paper in a truck backed up to treasury. 

The latest reason is the fantasy of golden dome missile defense system. A modern day Maginot Line. A Reagan era redo that is mostly about the false reasoning of breaking Russia by out spending them into oblivion, something that we have already done, without Trillions for Greenland and more Trillions for a defense system that is impossible. 

Stay tuned we can only expect that more craziness is on the horizon with the focus now on the Arctic circle.

Economic and political incentives of illegal immigration.

 BIG CITY POLITICIANS NEED THE NUMBERS

MORE BODIES MORE SUBSIDIES

We watch in amassment at the efforts by big city politicians to defend and protect the illegal immigrants in their cities. If not for the rise in illegal immigration most of those cites would have a much smaller population and a smaller population translates to fewer representatives in Washington and less money flowing out of Washington to their cites and districts. Every dollar distributed to these immigrants helps to prop up the economies of many of these cities. It requires more bureaucrats, more police, more language teachers, so there is an incentive to keep these numbers up.

I believe it was Jeb Bush who embraced the idea of repopulating the cities whose populations had declined severely with deindustrialization, with as many new immigrants as possible. While many believe that this would be similar to what happened in the early 1900's. it is now a far different situation today. At that time anyone who arrived in the country, after being cleared at Ellis island, could find a job in days if not hours. A job that was available and a necessity for survival. There were jobs in steel, mining and the growing industrial economy that needed little skill, just the willingness to do what ever was needed, often for little pay and long hours. Most believed it was better than the opportunities in Europe and wherever they came from. 

Those new immigrants learned, adapted and within a generation or two were moving into the middle class. They were Americans in a short time and had little affiliation with their previous home. They had an attitude of optimism because it was true, hard work and responsible workers could move up and prosper.

Today, both here and in Europe we see immigrants often not being screened or legal residents moving to the countries and cities and states with the most liberal benefits. Jobs requiring little skill in industry are few, some move into construction where their are opportunities, but require hard work and a learning curve. Most are left in service and retail and fast food, with some opportunity for advancement but never enough for the huge number of new immigrants. It is easy to fall into the trap of government subsides and benefits and if not assimilated quickly can become a generational lifestyle.

Politically they are used, and with many areas offering liberal voting rules, are encouraged to vote for those who will continue their dependence. There dependence insures jobs for bureaucrats, teachers union numbers, all paid for with government money and debt. 

These immigrants are now a resource to insure the incomes of bureaucrats and politicians who serve to manage the redistribution of moony out of Washington and State capitals. 

Iran, a dilemma for 9 presidents.

 POSTPONEMENT OR RETHINKING ATTACK

REAL FEAR OF UNINTENDEND CONSEQUENCES

So far, the much anticipated attack on Iran has not happened. Is it just a postponement to insure success or finally a realization that attacking Iran can be a real loser for the world's economy and possibly consequences too devastating to take the gamble. War should never be a gamble, even so called, sure things, can go wrong, catastrophic and history making wrong. 

Iran, has been on the radar for every President since Dwight Eisenhower, I skipped Kennedy and Nixon, but I am sure that they had thoughts and meetings concerning Iran. While the U.S. had dealings before 1953, it was the overthrow of their first elected government by the CIA, approved by Eisenhower, with pressure from the UK, that started the adversarial relationship between the two countries. The Shah, propped up by the U.S., reigned for 26 years, the current government has been in charge for 47 years. The Shah was a dictator, never heard of calls from the west for democratic elections, and in fact still never hear for elections now, just install the Shah's son, who has not set foot in Iran since a child. No matter, we can run the country for him.

Most American's and Europeans still do not understand the relationship that has festered all these years. The return of the Ayatollah from France in 1979 was a reaction to the Shaw's rule and the increasing decadent influence of the U.S. The holding of the U.S. personnel as hostage's for over a year, probably as a precaution to avoid a U.S. attack, inflamed passions in the U.S. It was followed by an 8 year war, 1980 to 1988, between Iran and Iraq, supported by the U.S., that claimed millions of lives. We could say that it was proxy war that failed to defeat Iran.  Saddam Hussein was then under attack 2 years later, expendable by then.

Iran has been under economic warfare for all these years and it has been able to keep their economy from excelling. It may be that some have decided to just keep up the pressure rather risk the consequences of war. The risk is that if the current trend to an alternative economic system materializes, Iran will be increasingly immune from economic sanctions. The biggest opponent of this ever happening is Israel who believes Iran is a forever threat to their existence and, it may be true that the feelings are mutual. Israel has pressured at least 4 presidents to go to war with Iran, so far, they have all deferred, they may finally be successful with Trump, but it has not yet happened. They have all deferred because the risks were considered too high by all of them.

So here we are, much of the necessary assets are positioned for war, some believe they need more assets and more time to reposition. It has been reported that the military has doubts about the consequences, some believe Israel will be the focused target of retaliation and many do not believe they can prevail without using their nuclear weapons. There will be a world economic price to be paid, a price that many in the west, cannot afford. 

Some say that Netanyahu is threatening unilateral nuclear attack and Psychopath Lindsey, "no good Russians but dead Russians" Graham, appeared to be on the verge of tears on national television. The reality is, that Iran, Israel and the U.S. are all in a serious economic and political situation after 30 years of military action in the region. Will another war finally bring peace or mutual destruction.

End of START treaty and a nuclear Oreshnik.

 NUCLEAR LIMITAION TREATY TO EXPIRE ON FEB. 5, 2026

LAST OF THE NUCLEAR LIMITS TREATIES

In the late 1980's Russia and U.S. agreed to several nuclear proliferation treaties that reduced substantially the number of missiles and warheads of both parties, they were enforced with open inspections and other transparent measures. The U.S. withdrew from the intermediate range treaty in 2019, claiming that they would rather sign a new treaty that included China. This suspension was encouraged by John Bolton in the first Trump administration. Russia objected but continued to observe the limitations until withdrawing in 2025. That treaty covered 500 to 5500 km range missiles.

The last treaty still in effect is due to expire on Feb. 5, 2026. Russia has made it known it is willing to extend that treaty for another 1 year extension. So far, there has been silence on the subject by the Trump administration. This treaty covers long range ICBM's. Some believe that the announcement of a $1.5 trillion U.S. defense budget and no limitations on nuclear weapons will either intimidate Russia or cause them economic stress trying to keep up with U.S. increase. This is linked to the belief in the U.S. that the arms race caused the end of the Soviet Union.

Russia has upgraded its modern long range missile program and more missiles will not add to the ability to adequately destroy most of the civilized world.

Then there is the intermediate range missiles and Russia's new Oreshnik missile that has been used now 2 times. At present, it has been armed with hardened individual targeted warheads that are not nuclear or even explosive. They do substantial damage just from the kenotic energy expended at 10,000 mph speed. This missile has a range to hit every city in Europe and the UK. It can deploy up to 36 individual warheads and traveling at hypersonic speed is immune to any defense. We can expect that after Feb. 6, this missile, now being deployed with Russian and Belarusian forces, will be fitted with nuclear warheads. It will be a dramatic escalation of the nuclear arms race.

Did Trump stiff Bibi again?

 DOES ISRAEL HAVE A PLAN C?

IRAN HAS ROLLED UP MANY OF ISRAEL'S ASSETS

Lots of questions remain about the direction of the latest Iran campaign. While both Israel and the U.S. deny any involvement in the unrest in Iran, only diehard believers in their honesty and integrity are believing any of it. Has the window of opportunity for a military strike on Iran now passed again? Did Trump refuse to honor his commitment to attack Iran? 

In the June Israeli led attack on Iran it was clear that Israel had used internal assets to take down much of the leadership of Iran, along with their families and an estimated 1000 collateral damage. They then announced that a window of clear air space was opened and it can be assumed that Trump was supposed to then use U.S. forces to finish the job. He did nothing for 12 days, while Israel was taking severe damage every night. The U.S. hit the nuclear facilities without any Iranian resistance and declared victory and a ceasefire, a remarkable series of events in the last 24 hours. Then Iran made a attack on a U.S. airbase, after notifying the U.S. ahead of time, and all was well. What went on behind the scenes is anyone's guess as to how this ended up this way.

In the past week protests erupted in Iran after their currency was decimated by near 40% in one day possibly by an orchestrated attack by outside players. Then their are many real reports of infiltrators shooting protesters and police and the ensuing chaos, with much death and destruction. Iran claims that Israel and the U.S. coordinated these attackers, not the protesters, through the internet and Starlink. Israel and the U.S. deny this, but I am sorry, but it reeks of previous actions by both. Iran claims that it was able to monitor much of the communications and trace it back to those who were communicating with actors outside the country. If that is true, I expect they will be either out of the country or will come to a bad end. Either way, Israel will have lost a lot of their assets inside Iran.

So far Trump has taken no action and it does appear that the unrest in Iran has been brought under control. It is also been made very clear that any attack on Iran will cause a response without any restraint. Of course, the U.S. and Israel can prevail over Iran, but at what cost. Can Iran be overthrown and made to submit without causing a major disruption of the world economy, which could set off a chain reaction of economic disasters in many places? I suspect that is the dilemma now being faced, along with reported reluctance of U.S. military leaders to be able insure against major loses by the U.S. and Israel.

Iran cannot agree to give up their sovereignty by not being able to enrich Uranium for their nuclear energy. It will not agree to essentially disarm by handing over their missiles and risk being subjected to the Libyan plan of disarming and then being destroyed. 

We will see if Trump will take action, even a prearranged token event, I suspect he has only days to decide. Does Bibi have a plan C and can he survive the divisions growing right there at home?

Dueling narratives about Iran.

 IRAN REPORTS PROTESTS UNDER CONTROL

CLAIMS RECORDED COMMUNICATONS OF OUTSIDE COORDINATION

Information about what is happening in Iran is now very clouded, mostly due to the complete internet blackout. The protests were triggered by a dramatic decline in the value of Iranian currency claimed to be caused by outside financial manipulation. It is not clear how this came about, but Iran has been under continuous economic sanctions for 45 years. The protests began with merchants complaining about the rise in inflation and acknowledged by the government as a legitimate concern. Then it is has been reported from many sources that the protests were infiltrated with armed operatives shooting protesters and police and creating a chaotic situation with many casualties.

The government then shut down all internet service and has reported that the protests and riots were being coordinated through Elon Musk's Starlink. It has now been reported that the Iranian government has been able to also disable the Starlink system, which many claim requires a sophisticated electronic jamming equipment likely to have been provided by Russia or China. Iran also claims that it has been able to monitor and record the conversations over Starlink and has identified many of those who were communicating with operatives in the U.S. and Israel.

There are reports that the protests have mostly ended and have been replaced by supporters of the government, but there is limited ability to verify any of this. I suspect that much of this will be made clear in the coming days and verifiable communication becomes available out of Iran.

It is very possible that these riots were planned in coordination with the anticipated U.S. Israeli attacks on Iran. If these riots are actually ended, will this make an attack now less likely?

Both China and Russia have serious interest in Iran as a geopolitical geographic position in their future economic and BRICS expansion. One can expect they will do all they can short of direct action to protect the sovereignty of Iran.

Venezuelan and Iranian oil economic dilemma.

 CONFLICTING CONSEQUENCES

WAR WITH IRAN, HIGH STAKES GAMBLE

While Venezuela is still being sold as a positive development, it is way past the euphoria stage, reality is now sinking in. While some believed access to Venezuelan oil would offset any disruption of Mideast oil by the anticipated Iran war, it is now clear that this oil is a long term prospect at best. It will not, within the next 3 years, replace Mideast oil and it will not replace Mideast oil unless the market price of oil increase dramatically. This heavy oil needs a wide margin to make it profitable. An increase in the oil price will have very negative consequences for the Trump administration both economically and politically.

The other supposed benefit, was the denial of Venezuelan oil to China. China was buying this oil because it was being sold at real discounted prices, due to the U.S. sanctions, it was a lucrative price. At undiscounted prices it will not be that attractive on the world market. China bought this oil primarily to be used for the production of black top paving material. It also needed large quantities of Naphtha to thin the oil for pumping and the naphtha was imported from Russia. 

Then we have the expected attack on Iran, supposedly now imminent. An all out attack on Iran will likely cause a disruption of all exports from the gulf, causing the price to jump to over $100 a barrel. An oil disruption will cause a threat to the world economy, now under severe pressure in many areas. Of course, it may be possible that the neocons, enthused by their big win in Venezuela, believe they can overthrow Iran, with minimal damage to the oil business and no damage to Israel and U.S. personnel in the region. A long shot gamble even for these high rollers.

It is now clear that WW3 economic escalation is underway, Russia, after the U.S. backed attack on their nuclear control center and Putin's residence, understands that all supposed negotiations were just a load of subterfuge. China also understands that war with Iran, while much about ensuring Israel's quest for Mideast hegemony, is also an attempt to strangle China's energy supplies. We are about to see economic war move to the next level.

Today silver blew up to over $84. an ounce and Gold near $4600. an indication of the rush to hard assets around the world. It is possible to now see the flight from U.S. debt instruments increasing and the rise in debt interest rates. There is already a ongoing restriction of important minerals and it is likely to escalate. This, coupled with attacks on shipping can only lead to eventual military conflict. Conflict that is now considered by many in the west as a video game conflict, it will not, it will be real war and no one will be immune.

West losing influence in Africa?

 AFRICA HOPING TO END LAST VESTIGES OF COLONIALISM

WILL WESTERN MILTARY INTERVENTION RESUME?

In the last few years we have seen a growing list of countries attempting to separate themselves from their former colonial masters. This has been particularly focused on France with western Africa nations, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Senegal, Ivory coast and Central African Republic expelling or asking France to end military presence in their countries. Many of these countries ended their security agreements, often focused on counter terrorism by Islamic groups. Some claim that these terrorist's often were allied with France and the U.S. to cause division and disruption in their countries, whether this is true or not is probably not provable. These same countries have often hired private contractors from Russia and believe they have had better results.

The growing trend is to renegotiate contracts and agreements with western firms involved in resource development and pushing for maintaining a complete cycle of resources from extraction to refining to a finished product, rather than exporting raw materials and then being forced to repurchase refined products from abroad. They hope to then provide jobs and economic prosperity to their citizens. Some of this has been accomplished, but in some instances they could not reach a deal and it will inevitably lead to a conflict with France and other western powers. 

While Nigeria is closely allied with western countries it oil resources are exported as crude oil and then they repurchase refined product from out of the country. It is one example of them hoping to refine these products at home and be able to provide jobs and income from the country. This is a trend becoming widespread across Africa. 

The Sahel Union of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger now refine their gold at home and have begun trading in that gold. Mali has recently angered France over its Uranium resources, the main source for France. There is disputes over cobalt coming out of the Congo. It seems that many of these countries are getting better offers and better investment opportunities from China, which often agrees to build refineries and sign long term contracts that eventually allows these countries to own the assets and become more self sufficient.

While so far there has been an exodus of western military from Africa it can be expected that this may be due to being preoccupied with Ukraine and other crisis in other areas, they will attempt to exert influence again. We recently witnessed bombing by the U.S. over supposed Christians being killed in Nigeria, more likely a warning that they are becoming under economic scrutiny. Again, for now, Africa is not at the top of lists to be addressed with a whack a mole situation around the world.

Understand why the DOGE savings went to the Pentagon.

 NO FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY, JUST BRUTE POWER

REALLY MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN IS JUST TOO HARD

Many were bewildered when the $165 billion in DOGE savings were immediately added to the defense budget, without any accompanying audit or accountability, it is now clear, Trump has sided with the Neocons and placed all his hopes for maintaining U.S. hegemony on military and economic power. Forget fiscal responsibility, forget a new diplomacy, it is now all about intimidation, threats, economic sanctions and military force. Just the same old tired foreign policy that created a $38 trillion debt and destroyed the U.S. credibility around the world.

Just yesterday, he has proposed raising the defense budget to $1.5 trillion another 50% increase. Obviously it is not a defense budget, but a war budget. The U.S. is now acknowledging it is preparing to go to war with the world to maintain its global supremacy.

In fact, it appears that this administration has adopted the New Monetary policy, the darling of the left, but with the new twist that the ever expanding money supply, and the disregard of any issues with the interest on the debt, or even debt at all. This policy will forgo creating money by selling bonds and resort to just plain money creation in any amount felt needed. This massive money creation will be used to bribe and force others to continue to accept diminishing dollars or else. There is no other way to increase the spending in the traditional manner. 

We can expect that all diplomacy is now ended, it will be sanctions, monetary weaponization anywhere needed, accompanied by internal subversion by an army of infiltrators and saboteurs, all financed with truck loads of $100 bills, just created out of thin air. Produced by the pallet and handed out worldwide, until they they will only be used for toilet paper and fire lighting. 

We can expect that the accompanying inflation at home will be blamed on China and Russia or any other country not submitting to U.S. power.

At the same time we have seen repeated attempts to kill people we are supposed to be negotiating with, this has been with Hamas, Iran and Putin. I would expect any feeble attempts at negotiations are now at an end. In fact, with war with Iran now front and center and the possibility of actually becoming active in Ukraine, it would not be surprising for those opponents to believe it is in their best interest to take pre-emptive action, as all these disputes are now to be settled by military action.

It is indeed the desperation of a dying empire, devoid of moral authority, without conscience, now destined to end very badly. While many will blame Trump, and rightly so, it seems it is now the real America, just finally coming to the fulfillment  of it's evolution to this position in the last 3 plus decades. While many boast we are the greatest military in the world, we are bankrupt, divided and have lost all moral integrity, dependent on our adversaries and while able to win in short intense battles, do not have the financial or manufacturing base to endure a prolonged contest. It seems we are hell bent on ruling the world or taking it all down if we are not the ultimate ruler.

Big power standoff developing on the high seas.

 U.S.  FOLLOWING RUSSIAN FLAGGED TANKER IN THE NORTH SEA

PREPERATIONS FOR BOARDING UNDERWAY?

The saga of the Bella1 tanker that resisted U.S. navy boarding off the coast of Venezuela and later ran up the Russian flag and became listed by Russia as the Mariana continues. The ship now in the North Atlantic and headed for the Russian port of Murmansk is being pursued by a U.S. coast guard cutter and it is reported that assets out of the UK are expected to attempt an intercept. It is supposed to be also being followed by a Russian submarine and that Russian surface assets are expecting to escort this ship through the Baltic sea.

At the same time as many as 16 other tankers and ships have left the Venezuelan waters in violation of the U.S. blockade. It seems they are traveling together making it difficult to stop or board. The U.S. may be resigned to allow departing shipping to leave the region and instead focus on incoming vessels. 

It seems that now all shipping through the Caribbean has begun to be more costly due to increased insurance rates and expected delays.

The status of the Mariana will be resolved soon as it will soon enter the Baltic sea, but the increase in sabotage of Russian tankers, some claim as CIA operations, will likely result in a confrontation sooner or later. Not just between Russia and the U.S. but possibly in the south China sea or the straits of Hormuz. The U.S. is not a party to the Freedom of Seas treaty and may feel it can enforce U.S. sanctions anywhere in the world. 

The U.S. considers sanctions equivalent to international law and considers any attempt to bypass those sanctions as enforceable by military action. It may become reality in the Caribbean, but will be challenged in other parts of the world.

Maduro was delivered up by insiders.

 MILITARY STOOD DOWN

WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NOW?

It is becoming clear that the former Vice President, now President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez collaborated with the Trump administration to arrange for the abduction of Maduro and his wife. Rodriguez and her brother, Jorge, president of the National assembly, are politically powerful. As this becomes common knowledge, there is a high chance that opposition to them may become very strong, In fact there are reports of gunfire and explosions near the president palace in the last day.

Yesterdays outrage was voiced by much of the world and an interesting speech by Jeffrey Sacks at the U.N. security council made a clear portrait of the U.S. relations in central America and around the world since 1947. He stated that the U.S. has engaged in 70 documented regime change operations between 1947 and 1989 and all of them left the countries in question and their citizens in a far worse place, often for decades.

It seems the debate in the U.S., expressed by John Bolton, is that the Trump administration did not go far enough and needed to depose all of the government in Venezuela. This would have required extensive military action and occupation, possibly for years. Is this outrageous action by Trump now considered too moderate by neocon insiders?

It seems this country often talks about democracy, but when another country chooses leaders or political systems not approved it is then necessary to overturn those results. While the last election in Venezuela has had questionable results, as had many elections in the U.S., Romania, Moldova and a long list of countries, earlier elections were the will the people. 

As for the dire state of the Venezuelan economy, it has been under sanctions and economic warfare for years, With a normal economy, they may have been able to pay the awards for money owed to former owners of assets. No one defends the political system that they chose, but it is their right to make those choices and when the external and internal subversion increase then it seems they always end up in becoming more authoritarian and seek outside allies. Then they are also labeled a national security threat, because they sell their sanctioned resources to someone else. 

In this case they have even been accused of being a base for Iran's supposed terrorist activities in the western hemisphere, an absurd accusation. What terrorist activities in the western hemisphere?

Maduro is also indicted for having a machine gun in his possession, a absurd charge for a President of any country, not subject to any U.S. law. I guess they assume everyone in the world is subject to U.S. law. 

It can be assumed that this endeavor is just in its beginning, not a done deal, and can the U.S. really impose its will without many thousands of troops to enforce that will?,  or will Venezuela now fade into the background as other bigger fish, like Iran, come onto the menu for regime change operations?

  

Naked Resource grab will not make America great.

 U.S. ADOPTS EUROPEAN COLONIALISIM

NOT HOW TO MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN

I suspect many are praising the overthrow of Venezuela's government and the anticipated benefit of now having control of the worlds largest oil reserves. We are now going to be subjected to the narrative of how we have saved the Venezuelans from themselves and how we are going to rebuild the country for their benefit. We heard the same logic when we took over the oil in Iraq, and the Iraqi's, after over 20 years, are still not benefiting from their oil revenues. It is just a fancy picture of the naked aggression of empires of old, from the Romans to the the British Empire and now the United States. While it may be a short term feeling of Euphoria, it will hasten the rejection and repulsion of America in most of the world.

It seems this was an orchestrated overthrow with the cooperation of many of the insiders in Venezuela, a result of decades of NGO and CIA infiltration. The reality is that the socialism embraced by the Chavez and Maduro regimes is always destined to fail, it is usually best to let it fail of its own weight, rather than the approach that has culminated this weekend. In fact, we are seeing this failure right here at home and in Western Europe, it is decay from within.  Corrupt, immoral and exposed very transparently.

America became a great nation from the adherence to our constitution, the great opportunity for all to prosper and the greatest manufacturing country in the world, coupled with a currency that was as good as gold. None of those attributes apply anymore and we are reduced to the desperation of naked power and subversion to maintain the illusion of greatness. The United States even with its failures and flaws was the "Light upon the hill", the envy of the world.  It seems American's are the last to see the dismal reality of America viewed by most of the world.

So now that oil resources are captured to maintain the U.S. and western Europe, the next target will likely be Iran, the other great oil resource not under western control.  Oil also STOLEN from the west after their 1979 revolution. 

While it seems the hoped for access to Russian resources is not going exactly as planned, they have not entirely given up. The Venezuela regime change operation should make it clear that there is no negotiation that will ever be productive, it is submission or else. This applies to Russia, China, Africa and anywhere that is not under the control of the great power structure.

We should expect that much of the world will increase their efforts to flush out western NGO's and intelligence operatives, it could become much more dangerous for innocent westerners in much of the world. We will also see an acceleration in the flight from dollar linked oil and the flight from the dollar reserve currency. Much of this, along with military power, is the anchor of that world power. It cannot be maintained with exploding debt and a dismal manufacturing base.

Some time ago, I speculated that Trump would soon need to make his policies clear, he has, it is the same as the long line of leaders before him, war, intimidation and naked power, rather than mutual cooperation. Presidents come and Presidents go, but the post WW2 foreign policy has only become more immoral and more aggressive. I suspect that is signifying the last dying gasps of the American experiment.