What derailed Iran attack?

 WILL THE RIGHT DECISION PREVAIL?

WAR NARRATIVE LIVES ON

Many marvel that the imminent attack on Iran was aborted at the very last minute, it is still not clear exactly what happened. While the narrative continues that an attack is still on, it is growing more unlikely as the days go by. So what happened?, we do have some solid evidence and a lot of speculation of what prompted the cancellation or postponement of an attack on Iran.

On the night of the attack, Iran had closed the air space over the country and the only planes flying were 2 Chinese aircraft incoming into Iran. It was reported that attack planes were in fact in the air and then suddenly recalled. No one has publicly stated what had happened. There are some facts that we know, Iran made it clear that any attack would be responded to with all out war from Iran. This was made clear to Israel, U.S. bases in the region and any Gulf countries allowing the use of their base or air space. This also threatened the closure of the straits of Hormuz. Some believe that the gulf countries withdrew their support for the use of their airspace and that made an attack much more complicated. There was talk of inquiring about using Pakistani airspace as an alternative. 

There were also reports that the U.S. military was very apprehensive about this plan and advised more assets were needed to insure a successful result. It seemed the plan was primarily an attempt to take out the military and political leadership and when they lost communication with assets on the ground, it would have then been impossible. This also coincided with an end to the major unrest in much of Iran.

Then there is the lingering rumors that Iran has acquired sophisticated electronic counter measures that made targeting and navigating aircraft unreliable. This was reported by Israeli pilots in an earlier attack. 

We now continue to hear that a carrier group is headed for the region and that after more assets are in the region another attack will commence. That contradicts the fact the the U.S. has now allowed personnel back into the gulf bases after evacuating them earlier. The reality is that no one is advising sending any ground troops into Iran and any attack will be responded to with a damaging response. Iran has already implemented a long line of leadership successors in case of the leaderships demise and an air attack will unlikely cause a replacement of the government.

The reality is an attack will likely disrupt oil supplies and cause a global economic crisis, possible severe damage to Israel and the gulf countries and is unlikely to result in regime change in Iran.   I suspect that everyone is now moving on to Greenland were there is much less risk.