DOES ISRAEL HAVE A PLAN C?
IRAN HAS ROLLED UP MANY OF ISRAEL'S ASSETS
Lots of questions remain about the direction of the latest Iran campaign. While both Israel and the U.S. deny any involvement in the unrest in Iran, only diehard believers in their honesty and integrity are believing any of it. Has the window of opportunity for a military strike on Iran now passed again? Did Trump refuse to honor his commitment to attack Iran?
In the June Israeli led attack on Iran it was clear that Israel had used internal assets to take down much of the leadership of Iran, along with their families and an estimated 1000 collateral damage. They then announced that a window of clear air space was opened and it can be assumed that Trump was supposed to then use U.S. forces to finish the job. He did nothing for 12 days, while Israel was taking severe damage every night. The U.S. hit the nuclear facilities without any Iranian resistance and declared victory and a ceasefire, a remarkable series of events in the last 24 hours. Then Iran made a attack on a U.S. airbase, after notifying the U.S. ahead of time, and all was well. What went on behind the scenes is anyone's guess as to how this ended up this way.
In the past week protests erupted in Iran after their currency was decimated by near 40% in one day possibly by an orchestrated attack by outside players. Then their are many real reports of infiltrators shooting protesters and police and the ensuing chaos, with much death and destruction. Iran claims that Israel and the U.S. coordinated these attackers, not the protesters, through the internet and Starlink. Israel and the U.S. deny this, but I am sorry, but it reeks of previous actions by both. Iran claims that it was able to monitor much of the communications and trace it back to those who were communicating with actors outside the country. If that is true, I expect they will be either out of the country or will come to a bad end. Either way, Israel will have lost a lot of their assets inside Iran.
So far Trump has taken no action and it does appear that the unrest in Iran has been brought under control. It is also been made very clear that any attack on Iran will cause a response without any restraint. Of course, the U.S. and Israel can prevail over Iran, but at what cost. Can Iran be overthrown and made to submit without causing a major disruption of the world economy, which could set off a chain reaction of economic disasters in many places? I suspect that is the dilemma now being faced, along with reported reluctance of U.S. military leaders to be able insure against major loses by the U.S. and Israel.
Iran cannot agree to give up their sovereignty by not being able to enrich Uranium for their nuclear energy. It will not agree to essentially disarm by handing over their missiles and risk being subjected to the Libyan plan of disarming and then being destroyed.
We will see if Trump will take action, even a prearranged token event, I suspect he has only days to decide. Does Bibi have a plan C and can he survive the divisions growing right there at home?
Trump encourages Iranians to protest, and Americans to stand down. Although in the past I was a fan of Netanyahu, I hope that he loses his coalition. He and Trump are two of a kind. If that happens tomorrow, it will still take years for Israel to regain the high road.
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