It is never wise to try to corner a bear.

ARE DEMS AND NEO-CONS WILLING TO RISK WAR FOR THEIR POLITICAL ADVANTAGE?

ANYTHING TO STOP TRUMP

 

 

 

As predicted, Vladimir Putin is upping the anti against the United States, NATO and the west. We see Russian jets buzzing U.S. ships in the Black sea, Sweden  re-instituting the draft for both men and women, Russia re-deploying short range nuclear weapons and possibly restarting nuclear tests. Trump has been encouraged to call Putin a war criminal, murderer, and all kinds of personal insults just to prove to the left and the neo-cons that he will be tough on Russia.  This is all brought about, because Trump voiced the idea that there could be better relations with the Russians. This is last thing that anyone in establishment politics wants. Why?  

The policy of containment, instituted by the foreign policy experts that have directed our policy for the last 35 years do not want any Détente with the Russians. They believe they can push the Russians into a corner and box them in and keep them there. The Russians wanted to work to become a member of the world community, they probably would have had a better chance if they would have continued to embrace Communism. After all, China and Cuba, both still communist governments, seem ok with these same experts. Anyway, Putin has basically stated he will not accept being encircled by NATO, will resist attempts by the U.S. State department to interfere in the elections in Russia and their neighbors. He has made it clear he will interfere in the elections in the west, just as they have to them. So you can expect an escalation of tensions in Europe, with our armed forces in the Black sea and in the middle east. Do not be surprised if you see Russian ships in the Caribbean. I would expect we will hear John McCain exhorting Trump to shoot down some Russian planes that come too close to our ships. Then if he would do it, they would say he is trigger happy and about to start WW3. This would fit their narrative well.

Anyway, the idea is to restrain Trump from even talking to the Russians let alone make any overtures to minimize tensions. Expect things to get much worse, we may all be seeing civil defense drills with the kids under the desk, like we did in the 1950's. We have choices, are we willing to talk to the Russians and lessen tensions or will the Russian come to believe the only way to get respect and negotiation is to move the world to the brink of Nuclear war.

Pennsylvania Fiscal reform

CHANGES NEEDED TO HALT PENNSYLVANIA'S DECLINE

COMPETITION BETWEEN STATES TO INTENSIFY

A few months ago I took notice to a decline in enrollment at Northwestern Lehigh school district. There was a decline of 200 students in the last 10 years. This is close to 10%. At first I thought it was a situation unique to this rural district, the recession etc. Then it was revealed that only 2 districts out of 17 surveyed in the Lehigh Valley gained enrollment since 2009. Catasauqua declined 16.5%, Southern Lehigh 11.4%, East Penn 8.1%, Northwestern Lehigh is listed at -6.8%. Northampton and Northern Lehigh gained between 2 and 3%. I also talked to people in other parts of the state and the trend is state-wide. If you check live births in Pa. most counties are either flat or very slightly down, the few that are up are not up enough to cause an increase in population. The latest census estimate is that last year Pennsylvania's population was down .06%. The real numbers will be tabulated in 2020. While the population has been flat for some time, it seems that Pennsylvania may be losing the young, possibly most productive age group to better opportunities in other states. I come to this conclusion by looking at the school enrollment and live birth numbers.

The move of population from the northeast to the south and west has been going on for decades. In 1936 Penna. had 36 seats in the U.S. House. It is now 18 and has been losing an average of 2 seats every 10 years. This does weaken the political power of the state. Many may believe that it really doesn't matter, but we will find it does really matter. The state revenue is estimated to have declined this past year. The usual response of Politicians is to raise taxes on those who are still here. That is a recipe for disaster. That is the same tactics that have contributed to the decline of most major cities. It is time for a long hard look at what can make Pennsylvania more competitive in economic favorability.

Pennsylvania has the 10th highest overall tax rates in the country. The State is 50 out of 50 in keeping established businesses, 49 out of 50 in attracting new business. The state is 13th in property tax rates. Hi-tax California's property tax on a property assessed at $384,000 is $2839.00.  Pennsylvania has the second highest Corporate tax rate in the country at 9.99%. North Carolina the lowest at 4%. Pennsylvania is not competitive with their tax rates. I don't know about regulation competition, but I do know from my personal experience the regulatory environment in Pennsylvania, especially with the DEP, is one of confrontation rather than cooperation. All this may become more acute when President Trump decreases Corporate rates to be competitive with the rest of the world. This alone will make the USA a more attractive place to do business. While it may not bring business rushing back to our country, it will help to stop the bleeding out of the country. It will also increase the competition between states to bring the new business and expansions to their state. Why is Boeing now in South Carolina and not in Pennsylvania? Why is Intel's new plant in Arizona and not in Pennsylvania? Its not hard to figure out, because Pennsylvania politicians have been more focused on dividing the pie and increasing taxes, than in making the pie larger. In the end this will lead to financial crisis, with ever increasing public sector pension debt and less and less income in the future.

While there is some talk of fiscal reform in Harrisburg most of it is tinkering around the edges. There needs to be a major evaluation of the fiscal  policy of the state to make it more competitive with the rest of the country.  It should start by lowering the state corporate tax rate to 5%, or better yet, eliminate all property taxes and raise the income tax to the same level for all taxpayers. Most new business coming to Pa. now negotiate tax abatements for some time. In Monroe county, business were leaving at a rate that the county has taken advantage of the, "Local Economic Revitalization Tax Abatement Act". This act does away with all taxes including school taxes for 5 years, it declines 20% a year. They believe it is helping to revitalize the tax base in the area. A similar program was recently used in Allentown. These programs are all temporary and what the long term success will be is yet to be determined.

Eliminating the archaic, discriminatory property tax would go a long way in making Pennsylvania a competitive place to establish a business. It would also encourage young educated productive workers to stay in the state. It would free up money to be spent on economic activity. It would spread the burden of taxes to a wider segment of the population not just property owners. This and regulatory reform where regulators help people comply rather than an adversarial mentality that hopes to stop development entirely.

While Pennsylvania has many advantages in open space, adequate water, access to an Atlantic port and a skilled workforce the State may be left behind by the rest of the country if it does not make an effort to make Pennsylvania an attractive place to live and do business.

Northampton County Republican Committee

LINCLON  DAY  BREAKFAST

SCOTT WAGNER GUEST SPEAKER

On Saturday February 18th, the Northampton County Republican committee had their annual Lincoln day breakfast. Over 200 guest attended and exhibited the same enthusiasm that helped the local party accomplish so much in the last year. They were fired up and anticipating the coming elections in the county. Lee Snover gave out much deserved awards to those that worked so hard in the last year. It would be a great thing if this organization and enthusiasm could be spread to the other county committees in the state.

 

 

 

The guest speaker  for the event was State Senator Scott Wagner, a York county resident who is President and owner of Penn Waste, Inc. and KBS Trucking in Thomasville, Pa.. He has been supporting conservative causes and campaigns for the past 30 years. In March, 2014 he took his experiences with him to Harrisburg after being elected to the State Senate for the 28th District in a historic write-in campaign.

 

As a State Senator, Wagner is Chairman of the Senate Local Government committee and Vice-Chairman of the Senate Labor and Industry committee, and sits on the influential Senate appropriations Committee as well as the Transportation and Intergovernmental committees.

 

Scott is not seeking reelection to the State Senate in order to give a 100% complete effort to share his message to the people across the state on how to reform and correct the mismanagement problems in the state.

 

 

 

Scott Wagner , candidate for Governor, addressing the Northampton County Committee.

Time to break out the polygraphs

FINDING LEAKERS SHOULD NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT

FOREIGN RELATIONS WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE

 

 

The Leaking of details of discussions of the President and foreign leaders must be eliminated now. Foreign policy will be impossible under these circumstances. No foreign leaders will engage in frank discussion until this problem is remedied. This is not all that difficult. Every employee of the CIA, NSA, or the FBI or any other agency engaged in national security must agree to take polygraph tests on request. It should be possible to determine which individuals had access to these recordings. Then line them for the polygraph, while it may not be used to prosecute them if they fail, they will be put into a situation that will make leaking much harder. And if enough evidence is there to prosecute, they should be prosecuted to the limit. This is not a situation of idle gossip that goes on in the private sector. These people know the rules when they accept employment. Their loyalty has to be to the administration and the country, not to former heads or political parties. If they cant stomach the administration and these restrictions, do the honorable thing and look for another job or transfer to the post office.  I would expect these leaks will be eliminated in the foreseeable future.

Whatever it takes, eliminate Trump is the goal.

COORDINATED EFFORT TO REMOVE TRUMP FROM OFFICE

IMPEACHMENT OR WORSE IS THE GOAL

The strategy has not changed since June of 2015, when Trump announced he was running for president. First it was to deny him the nomination by any means possible. His first opposition was the Never-Trumpers who are still at it today. They represent those who have run the foreign policy of the United States for the last 30 years. It has been the same policy no matter who is in office, it is the behind the scenes manipulators who profit by control of foreign policy. Does anyone except these entrenched bureaucrats and so-called public servants believe they have had a foreign policy that has increased the safety and position of the United States? Or have they created chaos all around the world? Whether it is intentional or just incompetence is a good question? Even incompetents or the blind should have a 50% record. It looks more and more like intentional malfeasance. While Trump is a novice, his goals to take a new look at our foreign policy is a breath of fresh air, except for those who believe staying on the same course is the only path.

Then you have those making billions on the import of goods made in third world countries and could care less about people who are inclined to work and produce things. For them the answer is just subsidize and keep them complacent with food stamps, welfare benefits and legalized drugs.

Then you have democrats who believed this would be the election when they would finally put the opposition into the dustbin of history. Their goal is to overwhelm the conservative vote in the country with millions of new constituents who they hoped to make citizens and give them the right to vote. They could care less about making them independent self supporting citizens, it would be better to keep them dependent on the largess they confiscate from other Americans.

Then you have the nomenclature or bureaucracy who live by the redistribution provided by the so-called public servants who may start out with good intentions, but after a short time become self servants for themselves and their cronies. Trump has promised a hiring freeze and a reduction by attrition of Washington bureaucrats by 20%. This motivates the Government sector unions to sabotage whatever they can.

Then you have the media controlled by the same people who hobnob with the public servants and the entrenched who feel they are all part of the elite clan that run the country. They believe they are much smarter and wiser than those mushroom Americans out in the hinter land. Most have not had an original thought in their lives, but have succeeded by becoming talking puppets, repeating the litany of the day or week. Their number 1 goal in life is looking for a story to bring down Trump and become a hero with their peers.

Before being inaugurated, we heard that no one was willing to work in the cabinet, they were not picking the usual public servants. Then they attempted to threaten and coerce the electors to switch votes, the only switches were some Hillary electors. Then they set out to disrupt the inauguration. Then slow walk and delay his cabinet confirmations, even when it was known they would all pass. Then criticize the administration for not being up to speed quick enough. Then actually leaking recorded calls of the President with foreign leaders. The escalation continues. The next step is to strip Trump of his loyal advisers and replace them with the establishment, whose goal will be to subvert his agenda. The  Democrats and their supporters calling for impeachment, which started before he was inaugurated. Assassination has become acceptable conversation in public.

I am sure many are cheering at this mayhem, but have any thought of the consequences. What do these people believe will happen if Trump should be impeached or assassinated? Do you think we will then have a peaceful transition to a new Obama like administration? No one will be spared if this country goes down that road.

There are times in history were people become emotionally out of touch with the consequences of their actions. The actions being taken today may very well have consequences that once unleashed will not be easily contained.

Why travel ban now?

TRAVEL BAN IS LINKED TO EXPECTED INCREASED PRESSURE ON ISIS

TERRORIST ACTIVITY MAY ESCALATE

While we see the hysteria created by the administration's temporary ban on travel from Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Iran. It should be noted than only Iran has a functioning government. How can anyone coming from those countries be properly vetted if the originating country is in a state of chaos? While this is advertised as a temporary ban, depending on events, it may last indefinitely.

If we remember correctly, Trump has promised to take action against ISIS and Al Qaeda. He also has asked his military leaders to report back with a plan or plans in the next 30 days. What occurred this past weekend may be an indication what the future holds for the region and countries affected by the travel ban. This weekend's raid in Yemen, a combination  air and ground attack on an Al Qaeda hideout, may just be a preliminary to what is likely to come in the next few months. While drone strikes have been effective they have not eliminated the threat. Many fear an all out war with large numbers of U.S. troops on the ground, as this may play into extremists' hope of spreading their cause. Many small in and out operations focused on the leadership is a good start to weakening the extremists to the point that the local governments will be able to retake control.

If the plan is to take out every identifiable leader of the radical Islamic movement by small individual operations the only retaliation left to the enemy will be to attempt terrorist attacks in the home countries of the attackers. This has been predicted by most analysts, who expect an increase in terrorist attacks as ISIS and Al Qaeda are decimated. A travel ban will help to make it more difficult to get into our country.

Trump has stated many times that as President, he would not advertise his intentions to the enemy and that he believes in the element of surprise. He also pledged to destroy ISIS and he has been doing his best to fulfill his promises. We will see in the next few months how it all works out.

January 18 NW Lehigh Board meeting

NORTHWESTERN LEHIGH SCHOOL BOARD VOTES TO KEEP TAX INCREASES WITHIN ACT 1 LIMITS.

POSSIBLE DILEMMA ON BUILDING PROJECT

 

 

Last nights school board meeting contained a discussion on the possible elimination of property taxes by the state. While only in the preliminary stages, there is a good possibility that a similar bill to Act 76 will pass the legislature this term. If this should happen, property taxes for school financing will be eliminated and funding will be replaced with increases in state income and sales taxes, this would spread the burden of school funding to all residents, not just property owners. If this law should be passed, school districts will be allowed to keep taxing property to retire their existing debt. Debt that is incurred after Dec. 31, 2016 will not be eligible to be paid for by property tax receipts.

 

This encouraged the administration to recommend that the school board pass a resolution to ask for a exception to the Act 1 limits on tax increases. The Act 1 limit for this year is 2.9 %, with the exceptions, taxes could be raised to near 6%. The  school board voted 8-0 to keep taxes within the Act 1 limits. This does not mean that taxes will be raised, but that they can be raised up to 2.9% this year. The reason that Act 1 came into existence was to put a restraint on school boards excessive raising of property taxes. While well  intentioned, it encouraged school districts to raise taxes by the Act 1 limit every year and bank the proceeds for future spending. It has been the unrestrained spending that brought about Act 1 and now Act 76. The property owners in Pennsylvania have been an easy touch for more funding, just produce 5 board members and in four yours you can raise taxes by near 12%, if you qualify for exceptions you can raise taxes by 25 % in 4 years. Everyone likes to keep local control of funding, but the abuse of property owners has resulted in this situation.

 

The other vote last night was to proceed with the funding options for this project, the vote resulted in a 4-4 tie. which stalls this decision until the next board meeting. Voting to proceed were, Willard Dellicker, Todd Hernandez, Joe Fatzinger and John Casciano. Voting no, Paul Fisher, Phil Toll, Darryl Schafer and Charlene Rauscher.

While this district has not raised property taxes for the past 6 years, the future does not look so bright. This school  district has shown in the past that it can live within its means, if it has the discipline to control spending. It has been able to make improvements to buildings, including a new heating system, energy savings project etc. and at the same time increase the fund balance without raising taxes. While there is a consensus that renovations and remodeling is needed to protect the citizens property and maintain the existing building, the over expansion with no educational benefit is the issue.

The district now has existing building debt of $44,139,298, the new expansion project, in a time in enrollment decline, will add at least another $11,700,000 of new debt and diminish the fund balance by $4,000,000. This will bring the building debt to $55,839,298. This does not include pension debt of $56,933,624. The income of the school district is $39,658,705. This produces a building debt to income ratio of 140%. This compares to the districts closest neighbors, Parkland at 94% and Northern Lehigh at 80%. . Even the existing building debt is 111% above income for Northwestern Lehigh .

So, the dilemma is, if the school district borrows $11.7 million in new debt it will not be able to be paid for with property taxes if Act 76 passes.  It will have to be paid for out of the fund balance. the remaining questions are what limitations may be put on fund balances in the new act.

There also is the question, if the school district is in danger of losing its ability to raise taxes, what are the considerations placed on lenders, whether through bond offerings or bank loans. There will need to be a complete re-evaluation of the credit worthiness of School Districts. Present debt levels will be an issue with lenders. The prudent thing for the board to do, would be to suspend the present project or at least limit it to $4 or $5 million dollars that would address the most pressing needs, this could be paid for out of existing revenue or fund balance. There is definitely going to be a period of uncertainty for the foreseeable future.

Former board member Joseph Reiter stated, that many legislators in other parts of the state are under pressure to eliminate the property tax, as many older and less wealthy citizens are loosing their ability to own a home.

Whether Act 76 passes this year or not, school funding through property taxes is going to come to an end. It will be necessary to keep the state competitive with other states in the future. Gov. Wolf is in a tight box, if he vetoes such a bill, he will most likely loose his re-election and the bill will be passed by the next Governor. If he passes this bill he may loose the support of his biggest support, the education industry. This should be a very interesting year in state politics.