Trade war heading to irreconcilable divorce.

 MULTIPOLAR ECONOMIC SYSTEM WELL UNDERWAY

A REAL NEW WORLD ECONOMIC ORDER

Everyday we see more evidence that the estrangement between the west and the rest of the world is heading for the creation of a separate and independent economic system.

Last week we saw the roll out of a separate settlement system based on banks in China, Brazil and Russia. This will allow international settlements between BRICS countries in their own currencies and seperate from the Western dominated SWIFT system. This rapid development, which was estimated to take years to accomplish, will undoubtedly be soon expanded to include much of the eastern and southern world.

At the same time we see sanctions and trade practices leading to retaliation and a withdrawal from any idea of free trade in the future. While both may very well operate separately and still trade with each other, it will eliminate any use of trade and finance from being used to intimidate and damage others in the future.

While some of these trends were already underway, the Russian/Ukraine conflict quickened the trend. When the idea of punishing Russia by sanctions and refusal to buy energy from Russia was used as a political weapon, other markets refused to adhere to the sanctions, while damaging Russia, they may be catastrophic for western Europe.  Russian oil and gas sales have continued to be made, just to others.

When Germany withheld the sale of autos to Russia, they were replaced by Chinese and Russian made autos. When the U.S. decided to restrict sales of silicon chips to China, they now make their own chips, and undersell the U.S. manufactures in price and in equal quality. These retaliations will inevitably damage western companies in the long game.

When the German government issued polices to German companies to restrict sales to China, China cancelled a $250 billion purchase of Autos.

China has cancelled huge contracts for the purchase of U.S. grain and moved those purchases to friendly Brazil and Argentina.

Recently China has also cancelled a huge purchase of U.S. autos while the U.S. companies are all on strike.

Most of the companies that pulled out of Russia, McDonalds, Mastercard etc have been replaced by Indian, Chinese or Russian companies which purchased these enterprises at fire sale prices, they will never return.

One of the sanctions on Russia was the freezing and confiscation of assets in western banks upward of $300 billion dollars. Russia has now placed an internal policy that any companies still in Russia can not be sold for more than 50% of the value and it will have a 10% tax. 

There are moves to force China to sell real-estate and other assets in the U.S. this may be very costly to the U.S. auto, aircraft and others with plants in China.

While many have the idea that this will bring jobs and business back to the U.S., it is impossible, without a restructuring of the regulations and focus on green industry. Not to mention the shortage of skilled willing workers.

China has now rolled out its new airliners to directly compete with Boeing and Airbus, it is likely they will dominate the sales in the rest of the world. At the same time they dominate the battery market for electric vehicles, and now produce 60% of the world EVS. They will have a distinct advantage for auto sales in the rest of the world.

Both China and Japan, the greatest holders of U.S. treasury debt have quickened their liquidation of this debt and this will raise interest rates and create problems in financing the exploding U.S. debt, estimated to now increase by $2 trillion dollars this year alone.

While the narrative will be that these countries are conspiring to damage the United States, the reality is that they no longer view trade and investment in the United states in the same way. They fear that at any time their investments can be sanctioned or confiscated. The reality is there is a strong desire from much of the world to move to a seperate system where they are not imperiled with intimidation and retaliation. It appears that is now too late to change the policies that prompted this situation.

Israel war will likely remain regional conflict.

 NO REAL COUNTRIES DESIRE A MIDEAST WAR

BEWARE OF THOSE WHO WANT TO PLACE BLAME TO OTHERS

The reality is that Hamas understands that their future is declining, that if the peace talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia became reality they would be out in the cold. This attack was an act of desperation to bring some other Arab country to their rescue. It is very unlikely to happen as the countries in the region are focused on the future, not being drug into a 70 year conflict without a real solution.

Beware of the U.S. intelligence community trying to link this conflict with Russia, China, Saudi Arabia or even Iran. They all have bigger goals for the future than this Israel issue. While they will voice support for the Palestinian people and supply aid if necessary they are not willing to get involved militarily.

Lets start with China and Russia, because they do business and have relations with Iran, they conclude that they support Iran's support for radicals in the region. The fact is they want to cooperate with Iran because their location is vital in the Belt and Road initiative and other commercial enterprise planned for the future. These countries are part of BRICS economic arrangement and do not want to be forced to take sides in every political issue. Yesterday, Russia and China met in China to expand the Belt and Road initiative and announce the forming of an  alternative international payment system similar to the SWIFT system. It will allow neutral countries to trade and pay in their own currencies without the fear of sanctions and economic penalties for not taking sides. These countries will have the option of using both systems. Both Russia and China have very sound relations with Israel, with China being the second largest investor in Israel. I suspect that Hamas and Israel were not the major topic of their conversations.

Saudi Arabia has been enacting policies that are hoping to make the country a green country, with the use of desalination plants they are going to irrigate the desert and expand the countries economic future to become not dependent on only oil. Their vision is not including in engaging is pointless confrontations. They have entered into establishing a better relationship with Iran because of the possibilities of expanded economic cooperations.

Iran, while a supporter of Hamas would have a lot to risk for engaging in a war with Israel, it would interfere with their opportunities with Russia and China and after being economically isolated for 40 years they may be ready for a new direction. 

Egypt, the country that once ruled Gaza, does not want to engage in this either, they don't want Gaza back or the Palestinian people to be their responsibility. They also are now part of BRICS and will become the gateway to Africa. Their economic future may be very bright. 

Jordan is a friendly neighbor of Israel and has no desire to get into a military operation. 

Syria has been involved in a 10 year civil war and Russia has influence that would not support them in a war with Israel.

Hezbollah, is ruling Lebanon and is supported by Iran, but again their future in a war would not be a step for them in a good direction, while they may have some free lancers who want to go to war, the political operatives know it would not be good for their future.

So, while many would like to push the narrative that this conflict is part of some global conspiracy in the contest between the west and those countries who desire to separate from the western economic system it is more that they just want to be left to chart their own future without the interference of those who want to rule the world.

The opposition to the United States is a natural reaction to the mismanagement of the dollar, of the decline in the value of the dollar, and to the use of the western economic system to punish and control those that are not declared supporters of the economic, social and political agenda of the United States.

If Hamas lives, then terrorism wins.

 ISRAEL NEEDS TO VOICE A SOLUTION, WHILE ELIMINATING HAMAS

MAJOR COUNTRIES WANT A PATH OTHER THAN WAR

While we see riots everywhere, all part of the media campaign of Hamas and others to provoke war with Israel, it is time for proposals for lasting solutions.

I suspect that Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, the other gulf States and Egypt would like an end to the situation in Israel and Palestine. Of course, we can assume that the United States and western Europe would also like a solution.At present, the distraction is the imminent ground offensive into Gaza and the possible repercussions from the radical groups in the region. Of course,  these groups objective is to save Hamas. It could be assumed that the demise of Hamas could be an indication of their own future.

Israel must eliminate Hamas, they cannot be allowed to survive, and contrary to present narrative, they do not have to get in to prolonged ground war to succeed. Hamas may have several thousand fighters, I suspect they will have fewer after those who are willing to fight are dying. Israel needs to transparently voice their objective of eliminating Hamas, and they have the resources to accomplish that.

Israel has the technology to identify the location of the Hamas tunnel networks, they have the weaponry to suck all the oxygen our of these tunnels and seal them, making life impossible. Above ground resistance can be eliminated by Israeli air power. Will every Hamas members or supporters be eliminated? No, but they can be decimated to a non existent political power in Gaza.

Someone other than the United States needs to propose a serious solution to this 70 year conflict. Whether it is a cooperative effort from the gulf countries and other major powers it can be a proposal to end this once and for all. The United States can offer input, but any plan put up by the United States will be a non-starter for the Arab world.

One idea, a possible starting point, if nothing else to stimulate discussion and focus away from war would be a plan that would be two part.

Any independent Palestinian nation on the border with Israel will most likely be just a continuation of conflict forever. The best solution for everyone would be a new homeland for this population, one not on the border of Israel. While this sounds like an unrealistic idea, and would cost a lot of money, the present situation also costs a lot of money.

One part would be that Israel would agree to pay every head of household $500,000 for their present real estate in the west bank and Gaza. Israel could raise the money from contributions and loans.

The Arab nations could find a suitable piece of land that could be purchased in the region, possibly in the Sinai and pay Egypt or some other country, the value of this real estate. It would be a very worthwhile investment. Then this group could arrange infrastructure investment and start building. The population could then purchase land in this new country from their payment from Israel. It could be an opportunity for the peace seeking displaced population for a future, one without war and death. 

Would everyone in the these lands want this solution, of course not, some would like to continue fighting for ever, or until Israel is eliminated, just as the situation has been for decades. I suspect the vast majority would welcome a chance to begin a new life by a new opportunity for the future.

Any offer of a solution can began a process for a lasting solution, while the one above may never materialize, without offers of serious plans, it will be a future of just more death and destruction. I think most would agree that it is a ripe time for solutions that do not hinge on the destruction of Israel. One that would let both parties live in peace and opportunity without continuous conflict with each other. 

While congress debates speaker, we are safe.

 250 YEARS OF LEGISLATION IS TOO MUCH

REFORM OF CONGRESS IS BADLY NEEDED

There is a lot theatrics coming out of Washington because the Republicans have not yet named a new speaker. Do not worry, we are safe when they cannot pass any new legislation. Much is made about the amount of legislation that needs to be passed, Why? Does anyone ever question the functioning of congress and the real need of endless piles of legislation, more every year, huge bills that have diverse consequences and no one has time to read.

Legislation passed is always a bragging item by legislators, more laws that inevitably effect either our money or our freedom or both. It is time to question the passing of endless legislation, more laws, never recinding anything, always laden with pork for contributors and constituents that are not in the best interests of the country. Is all this legislating good for the country? Can we get along without endless new laws?

It is time for voters to demand some changes in congress that would make politicians more responsive to the voters and less responsive to the special interests. 

First they should be forced to move out of Washington and to reside and work in their district. With internet access they should now work from their home district. They should only journey to Washington to vote and that should be limited to 2, 30 day sessions. Temporary housing should be provided by the government.

They have 5 months to decide what legislation is to be considered for a vote in the the next 30 day session.  All debate and work should be by internet or zoom and be recorded. This debate should  be able to be viewed by the voters. All legislation coming up should be readied 1 month before the vote is taken. This way they can actually read it and understand what they are voting on.

Laws are not trophies or prizes for politicians, while occasionally we may need a new law, they should be few and some time should be spent eliminating laws that are no longer  relevant.

In reality, congress would have us believe that our lives can not go on without their ability to continually be passing legislation. In fact, we need very few new laws, and this would give congress  more time making government more efficient, more responsive and to scrutinize what they are legislating and how they are spending money. 

We need to bring them all home, so they can view the results of the laws they have have passed in real life, not in the theoretical bubble in Washington.

Ukraine offensive over, U.S. weapons to Mideast.

 RUSSIA CONTINUES WAR OF ATTRITION

UKRAINE PLANNING ASSAULT OVER DNIEPER

The Ukrainian counter offensive is now mostly over and Russia has upped the intensity of its offensive by forcing Ukraine to defend its lines in numerous places. It seems Russia is not in a hurry, but wants Ukraine to move troops in defending one place after another, then continues to slowly and methodically destroy men and equipment of Ukraine. While Russia is taking loses it is no where near the casualties of Ukraine. The latest estimates from numerous sources estimate that Ukraine has had between 450,000 and 500,000 killed and the severely injured may be double that. The Ukrainians continue to put up a strong fight, but it is amazing that they have continued for this long. 

There are reports that Ukraine is planning an assault across the Dnieper river near Kherson. It seems to be common knowledge, and if so, I assume the Russians have a plan to inflict heavy loses on the Ukrainians. The logistics of such an assault do not make much sense. 

There are also reports that some U.S. weapons sent to Ukraine had been sold and moved out of the country via grain exports to the middle east. Both Russia and some Ukrainians have claimed this is the case. There are reports that these weapons have turned up in the hands of Hamas. It seems that Hamas has used these weapons against Israeli tanks and aircraft. So far, Israel has not verified these accusations and they may be under pressure not to reveal any such information. If it is the case, Hamas will likely use these weapons in any Israeli ground assault in Gaza.

At present Russia has made incremental gains moving west in Ukraine. Ukraine's advances have been stopped. It seems Russia is content to force Ukraine to defend, then back up and pound any concentration of troops. It is a strategy to minimalize loses and keep Ukraine under continuous pressure. Ukraine is now drafting women and hunting down any able bodied conscripts they can find. Most analysts have concluded this war is in effect over, but dying will continue until there is some form of negotiated settlement. That does not seem to be in the immediate future.

West seems to always preserve terrorists.

 LET ISRAEL ELIMNATE HAMAS

STOP THE NAYSAYING, ISRAEL CAN END HAMAS IN GAZA

This weekends litany of all the reasons Israel should not enter Gaza to end the rule of Hamas is very similar to the same rhetoric that we heard when ISIS was near extinction and Russia and Syria were about to finish them off in Idlib province. Too many civilian casualties, too much destruction, instead let them live and fight another day. Just recently they sent a drone attack on a wedding in Syria killing the couple and 100's of their guests. When you have the ability to end these terrorists it is wise to bite the bullet and get it done.

While no one wants to face the truth, these terrorists are often paid to do things western armies do not want to do, they are often useful and used. Whether it is to sow discontent and instability in targeted countries or just to be used for leverage in some issue, they will work for money, even if they hate you.

Israel is expected to commence it ground operation into Gaza as soon as the visibility is good for air support. Without air support it would be a  difficult task. We hear the naysayers warning Israel that they can expect Hamas to be prepared to use traps and urban warfare to take a toll on the Israeli forces. This may be true, but Israel can not let them live to plan their next terrorist attack. The Gaza residents will be more safe after they are gone.

If Hamas engages they will be destroyed by air power, if they hide in tunnels, they will be buried in those same tunnels, deprived of oxygen and trapped forever. I expect Israel has a plan devised to seal those tunnels and make them uninhabitable.

The unified orchestra of Hamas supporters and those who want to have a continual ongoing terror threat have been unified and very active in the media and on the internet. Israel has the obligation to its citizens to end these threats if they are able. A better day for Israel and the civilian population in Gaza will be impossible without the elimination of Hamas.

Sympathy, empathy, but no viable Israeli solutions.

 NO NEIGHBORING NATION WILL END VIOLENCE

THE ONLY SATISFACTORY SOLUTION TO PALESTINIANS IS THE DESTRUCTION OF ISRAEL 

This week witnessed the endless commentary of the roots of the present violence in Israel and its neighbors. The rejection of the endless cycle of violence that continues to perpetuate this 70 year crisis. Much of the analysis is true, but no one has yet to offer a viable solution. 

The fact is that the Palestine population wants its own homeland and it is the same real estate that is now the Israeli homeland. The idea of a two state solution, is a far fetched utopian dream that will not solve the problem. Does anyone believe that a nation in the west bank and Gaza would  change the cycle of violence, but just make it between different governing bodies.

Then there are those who believe in a one state solution where Israel would welcome unrestrained immigration and equal rights for the new residents. Israel would cease to exist after a few election cycles and when the Jews would become the minority they would most likely be annihilated in short order.

Then there is rehashing of the original mandate by Britain and the UN that allowed the formation of this nation. Water long over the dam. The decisions by European powers to draw demarcation lines around the world are being fought over everywhere today. None of them have proved to be an easy fix, but this one in Israel is the most difficult.

Even providing shelter for the civilian population of GAZA on the southern border is a dilemma. Egypt fears that if this population comes into Egypt, they will never go back and then they will have deal with this unsolvable problem.

Placing the burden on Israel to solve this without accepting the dissolution of Israel is an unrealistic hope. Israel can not solve this problem. Any new nation on the Israeli border will just be a continuation of the present situation just with nation status.

Then you have a growing faction in Israel who want to reinstitute the historical biblical boundaries of Israel, that is the the present west bank. Another issue without a good solution.

The only hope and a very remote one, would be some kind of a solution arrived at between the parties and the neighboring nations. One that would provide a homeland for the palestinians not on the border of Israel. It would be a cheap investment for the nations to put up the money and help in such a establishment. It would provide an opportunity for those who now have none. Again, another utopian idea that will not likely be acceptable.