Looks like no escaping U.S. debt, deficit trap.

 UNWILLINGNESS TO ENDURE PAIN WILL HAVE CONSEQUENCES

ONLY SEVERE CRISIS WILL BRING REMEDY

The latest budget was a example of what happens when a country is caught in a debt, deficit trap. While some savings were enacted, the overall budget stayed unchanged and the deficit remained the same as the last budget. The logical reason for this is that if the budget actually decreases and the deficit shrinks it will be withdrawing government money from the economy and an accompanying decrease in economic growth. The other option is to raise taxes, which again takes money out of the economy and has an even worse effect, because it likely will have a greater decrease in economic growth. This illustrates the trap that systemic debt and deficits exert on the political policy makers. No one wants economic pain, it is unpopular, but will happen, likely in an uncontrolled and far greater way.

The best solution would be an oval office address that would lay out the problem, the eventual result, and a systematic approach to a remedy, in effect, telling the country the truth about the serious problem that will soon end in a crisis. The fear most likely is that such a  address would cause a reaction, a decline in the stock market, and other possible negative consequences, so as in the past, hope will replace serious effort to deal with the growing problem. This coupled with the extreme political division will most likely be used as a weapon by the opposition.

I suspect that the hope is that tariffs, increased domestic economic activity,  a lowered dollar will increase government revenues and hopefully make at least a symbolic cut in the deficit. Even then, the debt will grow substantially, and the yield or the cost of interest to the government on financing the debt will also grow, most likely wiping out any savings. This is what happens in a debt spiral, especially when fewer want to hold government debt, so interest has to increase to attract buyers. At the same time the government crowds out business and other borrowers as all savings end up financing the government debt rather economic activity.

This whole thing is aggravated by political tensions around the world, with over half the world moving to an independent economic system that will most likely grow and place democratic socialist countries with large debt in a precarious and declining situation. Fewer countries buying their debt, increasing cost of financing debt and eventually outright default. The positive result of default is that they will will have trouble selling new debt for a few generations.

In the EU, which is in a more vulnerable situation, we see currency controls, the hope to eliminate cash, a Central bank digital currency and the mention of tapping into citizens, "excess savings", this is the quickest way to see people who actually have savings to start moving their money out and into other assets. This is why you see efforts to control cash transactions and withdrawals from personal accounts. This will end badly, so the government then thinks they will control and tax all economic activity, but they will in effect stop all that individual activity that is very important to any economy. It will result in a severe economic decline.

Much could be learned by an objective review of the consequences of central economic control as was the fate of the Soviet Union. It discourages all entrepreneurship and is wet blanket on economic activity. It end in disaster and immense economic pain.

At present it looks the EU  is going to go down the road of more government control in an effort to keep the debt, deficit spiral going, it will undoubtedly end in economic disaster or as historically has been the case looking to war to save them, an unlikely effort, when many no longer have a manufacturing base to be stimulated by war. Hopefully the U.S. can move in a better direction.

Are the Warmongers prevailing?

 IRRATIONAL  AND DELUSIONAL DECISIONS WILL END IN TRAGEDY

HUBRIS AND AN INABILITY TO ADMIT FAILURE

The winds of war are growing more intense and a single incident may now ignite at the least a European holocaust if not a global infernal. European leaders seem to be competing for who can be the most bellicose and threatening in their desire for war with Russia. Trump appears to be joining in one day and talking peace the next. Some actually want war, believing they can engage in a conflict with Russia and prevail without it escalating into a nuclear war. Some believe that no one will ever resort to nuclear weapons and that they can browbeat and intimidate Russia into submission. Both are delusional and are not rational thinkers. 

Putin is the most rational and objective leader today, if you consider the facts without emotion or prejudice. It is now mostly admitted by all that this conflict is a NATO/Russian conflict and Ukraine is just the vehicle to accomplish their goal of the subjugation, dismemberment of Russia and satisfying their lust for the resources of Russia. They are too proud and arrogant to admit that their plan is failing and as in past history they may take down much of civilization rather than admit their grave mistake.

The conflict on the ground is going increasingly poor for Ukraine, they cannot prevail against Russia. Western leaders are threatening to escalate with long range missiles manned by NATO personnel, targeted with US satellite information. It then becomes an open NATO war and Ukraine is just the piece of ground to conduct the war. Russia will not and can not back down for existential reasons, this is not a policy of Putin, but a Russian policy.  

Ukraine under CIA and MI6 direction is also engaging in assassinations and car bombings in Russia of both military and political leaders. There has not as yet been any retaliation for these increasing actions. Last weeks incident with Ukrainian drones and Putin's helicopter could have been the trigger for all-out retaliation, by others in the Russian government. If the day comes that Russia believes their country is in immediate existential danger, there is only 1 rational choice for response and it will not be submission.  

Once this conflict goes to the next level, there will not be any negotiations or any ability to stop the escalation, at present, it appears the apparent substance abusing leaders of the EU will continue on their path to destruction, unless someone intervenes to end this escalation. 

WW3 possibility increases, Trump role dead.

 BOXING EVERYONE IN FOR WAR

MUCH LIKE WW1, BUT U.S. MUST SAY NO

Fact, Ukraine cannot prevail over Russia in this conflict. Only NATO intervention can save Ukraine from defeat and defeat of Russia will end with nuclear war in Europe. While Trump has attempted to act as mediator and co combatant at the same time, it is not possible, without the U.S. getting out of this conflict. That means stopping support of this war now. Sadly the political and internal pressure is much like what happened in WW1, the pressure to save Europe for so called democracy will be enormous.

WW1 started by a series of  incidents and the result of alliances. Germany did not start WW1 but felt obligated by its treaties and alliances. The war was at a standstill and a end was in sight, until the U.S. came to the rescue of Europe and an armistice was declared. Then over a year later the sanctions and financial obligations laid on Germany was the cause of WW2. WW2 was an extension of WW1. The reality is many in Britain and France wanted to keep Germany down as a power in Europe and it was their opportunity. Today they want to keep Russia down, a third world country and access to its enormous resources. It appears that if they cannot do it economically it will be war and they again need the U.S. to be the power to make it happen. 

Zelensky is obligated first to the UK and France. He was not the candidate of the US, the U.S. backed Poroshenko, but Zelensky won by promising the Ukrainian people a peaceful settlement with Russia, then proceeded to commit to retaking Crimea and the breakaway oblasts by military force. Ukraine was backed by all of NATO and they have not prevailed. Now they have to negotiate a resolution or go to all out war. It appears that they are leaning for all out war, especially if the US commits to come to their rescue. Only a NO from the US can stop WW3.

The conflict has been a NATO/Russian war with Ukraine as the provider of bodies. Russia has viewed this as a civil war between brothers and has been restrained in its conduct of this war, contrary to the media narrative. An actual conflict with Germany and NATO will be another matter, it will be the worst bloodbath, likely worse than WW2 and most likely a nuclear exchange. The new leader in Germany seems to be ready to rekindle the WW2 hated for Russia and it is a mutual hatred that if awakened will be deadly. This will be the case with or without Putin, Putin may be the most pragmatic leader in Russia, any replacement will be pushed to be far more aggressive.

It is now a pivotal moment in history.  If the US agrees to be part of a war with Russia, it will be WW3.  Only the US. can avoid this war, by ending all support for the war now. Continuing this war will lead to the worst bloodbath in history.

Attempt on Putin? Massive escalation.

 THOUSANDS OF AIR ATTACKS BETWEEN UKRAINE AND RUSSIA

EU THREATENS LONG RANGE MISSILE OK

In the last week Ukraine has launched over 1000 drones towards Moscow. It is reported that on May 20th during Putin's unannounced visit to the Kursk region his helicopter was swarmed with a large flight of drones. It is also reported that this attack coincided with a increase in U.S. surveillance activity in Romania and over the Black sea. It seems this incident is being downplayed by most of the media, if mentioned at all.

It the last few days Russia has launched hundreds of drones and missiles toward Kiev and other Ukrainian cities. It appears that these have mostly targeted drone manufacturing and other military targets and some speculate that many have targeted NATO personnel in Ukraine. All these attacks by both sides result in debris from anti-aircraft missiles falling and injuring civilians in the area. 

What exactly is going on is unclear, but some conjecture that there is an effort to derail any decisions that would end U.S. support for this conflict or that it is all an effort to increase negotiation leverage. 

On the ground, the Russians are advancing everywhere and now also in northern Ukraine in Sumy and toward Kharkiv, It does not appear that Ukraine can slow or stop the Russian advances. The northern plan is to secure a security zone all across northern Ukraine to deter attacks with drones into Russia.

In Europe yesterday, Merz of Germany stated that Uk, France and Germany along with the U.S. is removing any limitations on long range missile use into Russia. This has not been verified by those countries and it is unclear if Merz is a spokesmen for these countries.

If long range missiles are fired into Russia there will be a serious retaliation and whether anyone wants to believe it, Russia still has been reserved in it spproch to this conflict. They have yet to take out all the rail and highway bridges over the Dnieper river or targeted government buildings in Kiev. They have not targeted government leaders in Ukraine. Further escalation will not change the outcome of this conflict, but will cause much more death and  destruction, furthur hobbling any future for Ukraine. 

Tax bill should stimulate domestic economy, but?

 WILL ECONOMIC BENEFITS INCREASE REVENUES?

DOES NOT REDUCE DEFICIT OR DEBT

The 2026 budget has passed the House and it is likely to pass the Senate, but we can expect modifications. It appears that this bill will have a positive effect on the domestic economy, but does not address the biggest threat to the country, the unsustainable deficit and debt.

There have been numerous cuts in discretionary spending totaling over $160 billion, most of this is grants, surveys, and nonessential spending, but will have an effect on someones present occupation.

We see that the elimination of income tax on tips will be a positive for the restaurant business as it may help to incentivise more people to take those jobs, many have been struggling to have enough personnel. This tax has always been unenforceable and favored restaurants with cash over credit card payments. I suspect that social security and medicare tax will remain. We can expect similar treatment to the elimination of tax on overtime. I guess this is a little justice for those who work 60 hours as opposed to those who work 40 hours a week.

Deductible interest on domestic car loans may help the domestic car business.

There really is not a cut in taxes, just the making of the 2017 tax cuts permanent. These taxes going up, would have been a negative for the economy.

The new incentives and reforms are looking positive except for 1 thing, it does not address the debt and the now permanent deficit spending. This will add to inflation, the cost of the interest on the debt and the possibility of a debt crisis spiral.

With the cuts to the spending they could have sent a message to the world that they were serious about addressing the fiscal mismanagement, but instead they moved the savings to the bloated defense budget. A budget that has never been audited and appears to be giant slush fund for contractors and political donations. I suspect that it's just another threatening message to foreign opponents that we are preparing for war. A better message would have been that we are making the necessary reforms to make the dollar and America a strong nation from within.

I doubt that any Senators will dare to question the defense budget, but will succumb to the narrative that Russia and China are a threat to our survival, when it is they, who through their irresponsibility, is the biggest threat to the nation.

There will not be a ceasefire in Ukraine.

 CEASEFIRE ONLY AFTER PEACE AGREEMENT

ONLY CAPITULATION WILL END THIS CONFLICT

Much was made about a 2 hour phone call between Putin and Trump, but nothing new has been revealed. Russia's terms for ending this are the same as they were in 2022 before the beginning of the conflict. They are they same as they were in 2022 in negotiations in Turkey. The reality is Ukraine in NATO is considered an existential threat to their security and they are willing to continue until some sort of lasting agreement is concluded.

We still here about 30 day ceasefires and western troops in western Ukraine, just NATO expansion by another name, Russia will not consider either.

Somehow the west still believes that Russia will become tired or exhausted and give up and allow a frozen conflict or some other indecisive end to this conflict. It will not happen. While Russia is willing to talk about possibilities and possible trade agreements in the future, they will not back down from their goals in Ukraine. It seems that Trump believes that a relief of sanctions and the carrot of trade with the U.S. will be an incentive to compromise, it is not going to happen. 

Russia has already made the decision that they are on the road to a permanent divorce from economic and political ties to the west. They are looking to the rest of the world for their future business and cooperation. All they want from the west is a security zone to their west and that is Ukraine.

The nonsense that Russia has eyes on Poland or the Baltic states is just nonsense, Russia needs nothing from the west and attempting to be concerned about Russia occupying anything other than a security zone is just foolish talk.

The EU and NATO still want to expand into Romania and Moldova and are still hoping to defeat Russia, yet we see no conscription or serious preparations, still hoping to rope the U.S. into getting involved in a war with Russia. 

This conflict could end very quickly, if the west and Ukraine come to the conclusion that Ukraine will be a neutral country maybe even a member of the EU, but never a member of NATO and no western troops or bases in Ukraine. Until that happens, Ukraine will continue to become smaller, bit by bit, and only when the west decides to give up on NATO expansion will the dying and destruction end.

Ukraine, testing ground for evolution of drone warfare.

 DRONES NOW ACCOUNTING FOR MOST CASUALTIES

DRONES HAVE ALLOWED UKRAINE TO HANG ON

The Ukraine war has become the testing ground for the use of Drones in warfare. Ukraine was the first to extensively use improvised drones to use as surveillance and then to carry small bombs. Russia while having drones, they were behind in this technology, but have now become very sophisticated in the manufacture and use of drones. In fact, both countries have most likely surpassed the western countries in done tactics and manufacturing.

Today drones have surpassed artillery as the leading cause of casualties in this conflict.

Besides drone manufacturing and tactics the evolution of electronic  countermeasures and other sophisticated approaches for defense from drones is evolving.

Ukraine began with improvising cheap Chinese drones to carry small munitions often rigged together in basements and on the fly. They have learned and become much more sophisticated as they adapted to the countermeasures  introduced by Russia. Both countries are using common electronic components supplied from China. Ukraine is dependent on Starlink and Russia has their own independent satellite system.

Russia began by using Iranian drones and some of their own creations, but now may be the leader in these small battlefield drones, produced cheaply and in massive numbers. A $1000 drone can disable a $4 million fighting vehicle or a $20 million tank. Then leaving them vulnerable to artillery fire. 

Now drones can be placed in enemy territory and just lay there until needed, then activated, or they are being manufactured to be able to communicate with other drones and all converge on a target. Soon drones may be able to become autonomous and no longer need to be controlled from some other location which makes them vulnerable to electronic countermeasures.

Today, many of these drones are controlled from locations deep inside Russia by former gamers and non military personnel, a practice that the U.S. has been using for years with larger very expensive drones, which are mostly controlled from bases in the U.S.

There is no other testing method than can offer the experience gained in real battlefield conditions. This war between two sophisticated peer equipped militaries, Ukraine with all the best of NATO and Russia, have had the ultimate proving grounds for drone warfare.