Azerbaijan's dangerous gamble.

 QUESTIONING AZERBAIJAN'S NATIONAL INTEREST

LIVING IN A DANGEROUS NEIGHBORHOOD

Recently Azerbaijan has been in the news. It seems there are indications that they have been complicit in the recent attack by Israel on Iran. At the same time, it seems they have been looking to magnify its disputes with Russia and neighbor Armenia. Azerbaijan is in the process of selling gas and oil to the EU with pipelines through Turkey, a good thing for the EU and Azerbaijan. At the same time it seems that foreign intelligence operatives are present in massive numbers and has decided that Azerbaijan can be a pivotal player in the ongoing global gamesmanship.

Since the first choice for a southern front, Georgia, has decided that it's best interest is to stay a neutral party and cultivate good relations with its northern neighbor Russia and the west. The older citizens of Georgia decided they did not want to become a southern version of Ukraine.

Azerbaijan is a majority Shia nation, same as Iran. This in itself makes allying with Israel by its leaders as a very risky proposition. Then to its north is Russia who is very sensitive to any of its neighbors deciding to be a military ally of the west, another risky proposition.

It seems it is also putting a lot of faith in Turkey, who has its own designs for the region and has proved to be a notorious double dealer. One has to wonder what promises the leaders of Azerbaijan have been sold in exchange for this desire to enter the global chess game in this very dangerous neighborhood.

Since the conflict in Ukraine is not going well, it has been the desire of the western powers to open a southern front against Russia and at the same time a northern front against Iran. Azerbaijan is positioned geographically to serve as that conduit for both conflicts. A very dangerous proposition for the citizens of Azerbaijan, one has to wonder where it views the positive in a reward/risk analysis. 

I suspect we will soon find out as the Ukrainian situation is dire and the next round with Iran will be sooner rather than later.

Punishing BRICS validates its existence.

 ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIC SYSTEM INEVITABLE

TRADE IS BEING CONDUCTED IN NATIONAL CURRENCIES

We hear that Trump threatens to impose a 10% tariff on any country that is part of the BRICS economic group. This is just one more move added to sanctions and asset freezes that will encourage more countries to join the alternative to the present global trading system. While some call it an attempt to attack the dollar as the global reserve currency, it is alternative not a replacement. In fact the BRICS members are unanimous, at this point, that they do not want to replace the dollar with another national currency, as they fear it will just lead to same abuses that are plaguing the current system.

As for the dollar, the dollar is being threatened by the United States out of control and unsustainable deficits and debt. Producing countries are balking at taking, keeping or investing in a currency that is continually losing buying power. The dollar is no longer "As good as Gold". The move is to conduct cross border transactions in each nations own currencies in a new trading platform that is gaining acceptance. It is quicker and less costly that he current SWIFT system.

When the dollar became the global reserve currency, the United States was the undisputed manufacturing leader, the dollar could buy almost any item produced in the United States, that is no longer the reality. At the same time, keeping or buying U.S. treasury bonds is viewed as a  risky and losing investment. Any attempt to force or intimidate others to hold or use dollars will just validate the need for an alternative.

The latest U.S. budget with its continuing massive deficits sent a message to the world that there is no effort for the U.S. to address its financial irresponsibility. The bond market declined, interest on those bonds increased, and it will add to future deficits and debt. It also makes it unlikely that domestic interest rates can be lowered and in fact may be forced to rise. It also will likely result in increased inflation.

The United States can not force or intimidate others to accept the dollar, only by making the dollar a sound means of financial stability will encourage others to desire to hold that currency. 

Sex trafficking was not Epstein's motive, just a tool.

 

 NO ONE IS ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS

WHO WAS EPSTEIN'S EMPLOYER?

We again hear all the talk about who was on Epstein's airplane? Who visited his island in the Caribbean? Who attended his parties in New York or Who spent time in his New Mexico ranch? It is all a frivolous distraction from the real issues involved with the affairs of Epstein and Giselle Maxwell. Everyone wants to focus on sex and sex trafficking to important people. Every name that is listed is now called a client, an intentional distraction from what the real questions should be.

Where did Jeffrey Epstein's money come from? No one asks and no one has yet to unravel where all the money came from. It does not appear that Epstein or Maxwell received any money from his supposed clients. So we are to assume he just arranged all these meetings and extravagant parties just to rub shoulders with the rich and famous? A distraction from the real motives for sure.

Then we are to believe that every person that was involved with Epstein was interested in underage women. This is just a distraction from Epstein's far bigger operation. He was able to arrange funds for charitable groups, He was able to find funds for research into medical and other endeavors. He was instrumental in getting the Clinton foundation off the ground. In defense of Clinton he was involved with Epstein in his fundraising and political issues, no one knows if sex had anything to do with Clinton's association. 

The intentional attempt to tie Donald Trump to Epstein has been obvious, a couple of pictures from some gatherings, but no mention of Trump's barring Epstein from Mar-a-logo. Many people knew Epstein, many people attended functions with Epstein, but no one has yet testified as to what these connections entailed.

It has been reported that in Epstein's New York mansion, every room in the house was wired for video and sound with a control room maintained by a permanent staff. Has anyone ever interviewed this staff? Has anyone ever seen these recordings? It is also claimed this same situation was conducted on the island and the ranch. Are we to suppose that Epstein was blackmailing these people for money? It is unlikely that such a thing would have not gotten around in those circles.

If you see the list of contacts, we see judges, we see renowned professors, we see leaders in industry, elected officials, all people with recognition and possible influence. I would expect that many of them are very carful people who knew better than be placed in a compromising position, but if only a small percentage took the bait, whatever that bait was, girls, boys, money, drugs or bribery this information could be stored, maybe for years, until a favorable ruling was needed, or a treatise from some professor on some issue or a close vote in some parliament or senate. The question is, who was behind Epstein's compromise business? A very big business.

Intelligence agencies have been known to target people who may be successful in the future as early as college years. Time when many engage in youthful activities that they would refrain from later in life. Many are also recruited in college for different roles. They are always looking to who may be an important person in the future. Most of these files and information may be worthless, but a few may be very valuable in the future. 

Again, no one is asking what was Epstein and Maxwell's motives? Who was their employer and where did they get all that money? Where are all the tapes and recordings? Where are all the files? Was their employer a government agency like the CIA or Mi6 or both, or a private group with a more sinister motive? Again, it is easier to chase stories of innuendo concerning sex and moral failings of the rich and famous rather than even ask the real questions that should be answered.

Originally published 1/4/24

U.S. experiment in self government changed the world.

 SIGNALED THE END OF FEUDALISM

BECAME AN EXAMPLE FOR THE WORLD

While we have again celebrated the July 4th Declaration of Independence, I suspect many no longer realize the impact that event had on the world. "The shot heard around the world" from Waldo Emerson's poem that was a reference to the first battles of revolution and the beginning worldwide battle against colonialism. While the United States experiment provided opportunity and a huge increase in wealth, the nation grew from internal production and hard work, rather than the exploitation of foreign lands. It was an example to be envied by much of the world. 

While an example to be copied, the bad habit of colonialism continued and many countries were still fighting for independence in the middle of the 20th century and even today. George Washington's farewell address made note that the new country should avoid becoming entangled in European affairs, avoid permanent alliances and seek a neutral position and emphasized the importance of maintaining good faith and fairness in dealing with other nations. Such sound advice served the new nation well and was rewarded for embracing that policy and made the nation, " The light upon the hill"

While the country has always had its failures and flaws it was not until after WW2 that it began a policy of interventionism and an effort to control the rest of the world. Often influenced by the still colonial seeking countries of Europe, the country soon became the hammer to force submission or face the consequences. Then in the 1990's we hear the phrase the "only remaining Superpower" and the doubling down on exercising that power to fashion the world in some desired image, but not in the image of that new nation of 1776.

Many of the crisis existing today bagan by the policy of the English and French, in the  aftermath of WW1, in drawing countries boundaries and even creating countries to be exploited for their gain. This was done in Europe, the middle east Africa and Asia. The consequences of this arrogance is still being felt today.

We still see those that covet the resources of others and the power that wealth brings, but gained by war and taking, rather than work, perseverance and fair dealings with others. It has always historically been a path to destruction. 

The United States has been blessed with the protection of oceans on either side and an abundance of resources that allowed centuries of safety and prosperity. What we don't have we can buy and by hard work and ingenuity we can insure that safety and prosperity continues. 

We need to recognize that we have been led down a path that can only result in the end of this experiment. Nations need to abide by same rules as individuals. Fair and honest dealings do work in the long run. Might does not make right and it will end in the expected consequences. 

U.S. shifts air defense assets from Ukraine.

 SHORTAGE OF STOCKPILES WITH 2 FRONT WAR

ISRAEL WILL TAKE PRIORITY

It has now been officially announced that some weapons will no longer be shipped to Ukraine. The Pentagon is claiming that air defense missiles are now in short supply and causing a danger to U.S. national defense. 

Patriot missiles are being produced at a rate of 500 per year and money has been allocated to raise that number to 650 a year. Each missile costs $4 million and a system for a missile battery cost $1 billion.

The Thaad missile cost $12 to $15 million and production is estimated at 8 a month or 96 per year.

The reality is the very expensive missile defense systems can be depleted by large numbers of  drones and other projectiles in a short time. Making them more selective, will then allow drones and other less dangerous weapons to be even more effective. Many of these other weapons are manufactured at a cost in thousands rather than millions. Many small nations like Yemen have been able to produce effective offensive missiles creating a dilemma at to what defenses need to made to lower cost, increase production of air defense weapons. 

Israel was depleting its missile defenses at an alarming rate in the 12 days of war with Iran, it could not replace the number being expended, it is likely going to get every available missile from bases and assets as possible.

During WW2 the U.S was able to produce 300,000 planes in just 5 years attesting to its overwhelming manufacturing capacity. 

Germany it is acknowledged had the best and most sophisticated weapons, expensive and not easily produced in numbers, especially when it became subject to air attack.

Today we see politicians and other trash talkers continually making threats against China, a country, if motivated, that will be able to outproduce the U.S. by many multiples. Can anyone explain the logic in this policy. 

We see that the Defense budget has now been raised to over $1 trillion surpassing the next combined spending of the next 10 nations including China and Russia. While DOGE was finding waste and fraud in many places the Pentagon seems to have been exempt and rather than reevaluating what is needed, it seems that more money is the answer. More of the same, is unlikely to solve the dilemma in a very quickly changing world.

Focus shifts from Ukraine to Iran, Azerbaijan and?

 OBJECTIVE IS STILL MAINTAINING CONTROL

BRICS AND FINANCIAL DOMINATION 

The 2025 BRICS annual meeting is to be in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, July 6th. and 7th. While we see the Ukraine conflict now in its 3rd year and the Iran conflict still smouldering it needs to be mentioned that the big motive in much of the world unrest is the imminent loss of financial control by the West. The momentum for the reality of a alternative economic system moves forward steadily. The tactics of sanctions, fake negotiations and devious maneuvering just increase the speed of this alternative system becoming reality.

At the same time, the cost of attempting to maintain that control continues to grow, as budgets in the West all have massive deficits and growing unsustainable debt, the latest U.S. budget is a perfect example.

It has been the pattern in world history that empires always implode from over extension and massive debt. While historically, the United States was never an empire in the fashion of the Spanish or British empire, it created its wealth from internal enterprise and hard work, rather than in the age old method of Plunder and Colonialism. It seems that soon after WW2 the United States in cooperation with the economic power of the former British Empire, leadership saw opportunity in the rest of the world and slowly embraced the age old lust for world power and control. While the country lost its former internal wealth formation it seemed to replace that with the desire to control the world for financial gain. The results have always been historically the same, maintaining the empire soon leads to bankruptcy and disaster.

At present it seems those who desire to maintain that control are willing to cause the death of millions and destroy much in their quest to maintain control. The results of their quest, is in fact, insuring their demise and ultimate collapse.

So, as we watch unrest and violence around the world, be aware that the front shifts from Ukraine to Iran and then, we will see what will be next. A better idea would be to buy oil from the mideast and minerals from Russia and the result could be mutual prosperity. Prosperity seems to be secondary to the desire to control.

 

IAEA. Iran's catch 22.

 IAEA, JUST THE LATEST TO BE POLITICIZED

LOSING CREDIBILITY AND INDEPENDENCE

Iran, a signed member of the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty since 1970 is now in the midst of a serious dispute concerning the International Atomic Energy Agency. The treaty members have agreed not to be a nuclear military power and part of the agreement is inspections of nuclear facilities by IAEA. At present, since the 12 day war, Iran has not consented for the IAEA to resumé inspections inside the country.

As part of the original Trump deal with Iran, Iran had agreed to limit its enrichment to the percentage needed for domestic use in energy, desalination and medical purposes. They also agreed to monitoring by the IAEA. This deal was vetoed by Israel who wanted no ability for any nuclear enrichment and also near total disarmament of its missile program. This was unacceptable for Iran, and in hindsight a reasonable decision in the hope to insure their existence.

The first priority of Israel's attack on Iran on June 12 th. was Iran's leadership and nuclear scientists. It has been revealed that the IAEA had collected the names and addresses of these scientists and specifics about Iran's nuclear sites and passed them on to Israel's intelligence. Iran has been talking about arresting the current head of IAEA for being complicit in the attack that resulted in over 900 dead, many wounded, and much damage. Internally they will not be able to let the IAEA back into the country and, of course, this will be used as a reason for more military action. 

This could be remedied by the International community by replacing many in the IAEA in an effort to regain its credibility, but it seems that all is fair in the ongoing war with Iran and any others who may not be in favor.

I suspect we will be hearing much about this in the days to come.