JEB  BUSH'S  LAST  HOPE

It is not a secret that the establishment republicans support Jeb Bush to be the Republican nominee for 2016. Most of the republican consultants, political operatives, and elected officials are either openly or quietly behind the Bush candidacy. Fox news management is openly for Bush.  Many on Wall Street and International business would gladly support either Jeb Bush or Hillary Clinton.

 

It has recently been reported that a massive media campaign is about to commence to knock down Donald Trump and Ben Carson or anyone else not part of the establishment network.

 

Both Republican and Democratic members of the political class will most likely go all out to destroy anyone not a member of the club. This may very well also include Bernie Sanders, whose political positions are too far out for me, but at least he is an honest person who is not trying to play bait and switch with the American electorate.

 

It is all about the money, party members love a candidate who is going to generate a huge flow of money around the party, from county organizations, state party organizations etc.

 

Consultants and Communication companies live for these campaigns,  It is like their Christmas, but only comes once every four years.

 

Candidates like Trump, Carson, and Sanders  often refuse to use the party endorsed companies.  It is reported the Trump Campaign is going to use a Florida media Company who has no experience in political campaigns. This is a wise move to avoid sabotage of his message. 

 

It is very possible that a frontal attack from the establishment will backfire and these candidates will enhance their positions. Their hope is to at least lower their delegate count.

 

If this fails, they have one last stand, a brokered Convention. This could happen if a single candidate fails to win a majority of delegates. You have two coalitions,  Trump, Carson and Cruz on one side, Bush, Kasich, Christie, Rubio, Graham, Pataki, on the other, with the rest not known.
 

           Establishment           Leaning Establishment          Outsiders            Wildcards
              Bush                             Huckabee                         Trump                   Paul
              Kasich                          Santorum                          Carson                  Fiorina
              Christie                         Jindal                                Cruz
              Pataki
              Graham
              Rubio

The republican party changed the way delegates are allocated before the primaries began, they were looking ahead.

Florida, Ohio and New Jersey are winner take all. Most anticipated that the Governors or former governors of those states would have a good chance to win, of Course that is Bush, Christie and Kasich. Only 4 other states are winner take all. The rest have a form of proportional allocation, where it is possible for even minor candidates to acquire a few delegates.

Now you see why candidates who have no hope of winning will remain in the race to the end. You have to compliment Perry and Walker who would have surely won some delegates, but chose not to play this game.

A brokered convention would be a trading of delegates for promises of positions, jobs, etc.
I do believe, if this goes to such a convention, it will most likely be the demise of the republican party as we know it.