TRUMPS FUTURE SUCCESS AT RISK
ESTABLISHMENT WANTS SAY ON VICE-PRESIDENT, APPOINTMENTS
The negotiations have begun as to what kind of power the establishment republicans and donors will be able to exert in a possible Trump administration. Contrary to what you hear, the possiblility of a Kasich candidacy is not going to happen. Look at Kasich's financial report and we see his super-pack is $4,228,668 in the red. His campaign has a balance of $1,476,642. He has only raised $8,000,000 in the whole primary. He won his home state where he is the sitting governor, this is hardly a movement that big money is about to invest in. Contrary to what you hear about the principles of conservatism, I doubt you will see anyone contribute money to keep this campaign alive. He will not be able to win any substantial delegates going forward.
Ted Cruz has $13,645,419 in his campaign and $25,000,000 in his super-pack on March, 7. I doubt he has that much now, and I suspect the money will soon start to dry up. He will be able to campaign on but without major wins he will not be able to get to the delegate count needed.
Donald Trump, is the leader, needing 500+ delegates to get to the magic number. It can be done especially if momentum shifts in his favor, which it has. He has been subjected to over $40,000,000 in negative ads in the last 2 weeks without having much effect on his numbers. I would bet it will be increasingly hard for the Romney/Bush Stop Trump super-pack to raise money. Trump has pledged to finance his campaign in the primary and has spent the least amount of money of any of his past or present competitors.
So, the negotiations have begun, it will be interesting to say the least. I suspect Trump will run them around awhile while he gains more strength. When it looks like he is going to make the numbers, they will be ripe for a favorable deal, this could be sooner than most people think. The Jeb Bush people would love to get a vice president pick and some other major appointments. I expect Trump is wise to this, as they will undermine his presidency if they can. He will need to bring on board people he can accept who will be on his side. So we expect the debate in public will continue that they are going to take the nomination at the convention, this is nothing more than negotiating leverage. Trump will need to give them something, so they can save face, but I doubt that Trump will sacrifice his future presidency by caving when he is winning.
Ted Cruz has $13,645,419 in his campaign and $25,000,000 in his super-pack on March, 7. I doubt he has that much now, and I suspect the money will soon start to dry up. He will be able to campaign on but without major wins he will not be able to get to the delegate count needed.
Donald Trump, is the leader, needing 500+ delegates to get to the magic number. It can be done especially if momentum shifts in his favor, which it has. He has been subjected to over $40,000,000 in negative ads in the last 2 weeks without having much effect on his numbers. I would bet it will be increasingly hard for the Romney/Bush Stop Trump super-pack to raise money. Trump has pledged to finance his campaign in the primary and has spent the least amount of money of any of his past or present competitors.
So, the negotiations have begun, it will be interesting to say the least. I suspect Trump will run them around awhile while he gains more strength. When it looks like he is going to make the numbers, they will be ripe for a favorable deal, this could be sooner than most people think. The Jeb Bush people would love to get a vice president pick and some other major appointments. I expect Trump is wise to this, as they will undermine his presidency if they can. He will need to bring on board people he can accept who will be on his side. So we expect the debate in public will continue that they are going to take the nomination at the convention, this is nothing more than negotiating leverage. Trump will need to give them something, so they can save face, but I doubt that Trump will sacrifice his future presidency by caving when he is winning.
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