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Thursday, January 19, 2023

Dnieper river bridges, indication of Russian strategy

 IS TALK OF MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE REAL?

OR IS RUSSIA COMMITTED TO ITS BAIT AND DESTROY STRATEGY


We have been hearing of a major Russian offensive that is supposed to begin any day now. While it is true that Russia has massed troops and equipment that could enable such an offensive, it remains to be seen if this is real or just posturing by the Russians to entice Ukraine and their benefactors to send more men and equipment to the eastern battlefield.

This eastern battlefield has been the scene of much of the action for the last few months and has been devastating to the Ukrainian military. Russia has made incremental advances, but no major push to take territory, it seems the Russian strategy has been not about territory but the elimination of the resources of Ukrainian men and the Wests equipment. It has been a bloody death mission for Ukrainians and a junkyard of western supplied equipment.

The Dnieper river is the dividing line between western and eastern Ukraine. Supplies of any size or weight have to cross this river. There are a total of 37 bridges from Kyiv in the north to Kherson in the south. Does anyone ever wonder, why Russia has yet to destroy these bridges? It is certainly within the capability of Russia to take out these bridges in a very short time. Do they want Ukraine to have the ability to move men and equipment to this eastern battlefield where they are close to the Russian supply line, enabling Russia to have a very efficient way of continuing this battle.

There are only 18 bridges across the Dnieper in the middle and southern part, these are big long bridges and it can be assumed much of the supplies have to cross these bridges. There are only 6 in the lower section around Zaporizhia and Kherson.

These bridges may be an indication, if a major Russian offensive is to take place. It also may be a way to trap the Ukrainian army on the east side of the river whenever Russia believes it has overwhelming advantage.

There is much talk of the west sending a couple dozen western tanks, most are leary of diminishing their already depleted supply of military equipment. Does anyone believe that a couple dozen more tanks will change the direction of this conflict. Will this just turn into a extension of the massive junkyard that is eastern Ukraine? Is this nothing more than symbolism to encourage the Ukrainians to keep fighting and dying. 

I suspect that time is running out for Ukraine. The present strategy of Ukraine fighting a proxy war for the west is coming to end. While we hear elitist talk of supporting Ukraine for decades, only out of touch bureaucrats with no consideration for the lives of Ukrainians would entertain such an idea.The question for western strategists is do they now commit the men and resources of the U.S. and NATO to an all out war with Russia? A war requiring a resumption of selective service in the west and the real danger of nuclear war. This is where the war will become real for the citizens of the western alliance.




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