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Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Ukraine now in military and political crisis.

 MILITARY IS DECIMATED AND DISSENSION RISES IN GOVERNMENT

EUROPEAN PARTNERS BALKING AT ESCALATION


It looks that a change in direction will soon need to be made in the Ukraine conflict. The military has been seriously degraded where most of their experienced well trained troops have been killed. While equipment is still being poured into the country from NATO it has fewer trained troops to use and maintain this equipment. Some of this being made up for with U.S., UK and Polish troops. If the tide of war is to be turned it will most likely require an increased number of NATO troops. This will then shift this from a proxy war between Russia and NATO to an all out NATO Russian confrontation. 

On the political side, the members of the Zelensky's cabinet are dropping one by one. The Secretary of Internal affairs, not interior by the way, was killed in a helicopter crash. His chief adviser was forced to resign after stating that the apartment building disaster was the result of air defense over a populated area. He has now spent the weekend being interviewed by numerous media and had a lot of criticism of the cause of the war and the direction of the war and the attacks by the government on the Church. Several other members have resigned for allegations of corruption.

It has also been reported that Zelensky has been advised by his benefactors to withdraw his troops to a more defensible position to save their lives to fight another day, so far he has refused. It seems the Russian's are moving to expand their offensive to the south and to keep up a slow calculated destruction of men and equipment.

Germany has still not agreed to send Tanks to Ukraine mostly because their analysts do not believe escalation will change the outcome of the conflict and will just increase the likely result of  permanent alienation of Europe from Russia. The Germans and others now realize they cannot really have economic success and be dependent on the U.S. for energy. Germany is the industrial leader of Europe in many areas and its economy will not succeed without a realizable source of energy.

Other NATO countries increasingly fear they are jeopardizing their security by thinning out their military equipment.

Turkey, the lone Muslim member of NATO, pledged it will never endorse Sweden into NATO after a weekend of anti Muslim demonstrations. They also do not want to be in a position to be permanently disengaged from Russia for obvious geographical reason. 

The Zelensky government has become increasingly authoritarian, no independent press, outlawing opposition political parties, even stripping the citizenship of his political opponents. An attack on the major religion of Ukraine may have been a major mistake.This coupled with forced service to the eastern front with large loss of life is going to put enormous political pressure to bear. Some predict the possibility of a coup or even civil war.

Whatever the near future brings for Ukraine it will be a serious crisis for the civilian population which is soon to enter their second year of escalating disaster.



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