Russia shifts from defense to offense in Ukraine.

 HEAVY FIGHTING, MUCH LOSE OF LIFE AND EQUIPMENT

ACTUAL RISE IN INTENSITY IN MOST AREAS

Almost 2 months into the Ukrainian counter-offensive there is still no major breakthrough of the Russian defenses. While the Ukrainians have made some gains in the southern area, they have been at great cost and have not resulted in any major breakthrough. It is believed the Ukrainians have lost at least 30% of their tanks, artillery and other equipment and possibly the same percent of their personnel.

In recent days Russia, who has been massing large numbers of troops and equipment in the northern area has made significant advances. It seems this offensive is measured and calculated to advance, then set up defenses and then advance again. A tactic that may insure that they will not overextend and then be damaged. We will see if this Russia's real offensive or just an attempt to force Ukraine to make decisions to call troops from other areas. It does appear that Russia is now ready to take more area moving west.

There are reports that Poland and Latvia are being encouraged to take part in this crisis in support of Ukraine. It would be a major escalation that would place those counties troops in serious jeopardy. 

This conflict has without a doubt exceeded the casualties of any conflict since WW2. Both Ukraine and Russia have paid a high price and that investment in blood will not be easily negotiated away.

At present, there does not look like any solution is available to rescue Ukraine from serious defeat. It is expected that Russia will advance at least until they control completely those 4 districts that have been incorporated into Russia. Those areas will not be part of any negotiations.

After that is accomplished, Russia will probably extend their occupation to the distance of the longest range weapons that are provided to Ukraine. The longer range, the smaller Ukraine will become.

So far, Russia has not engaged in all out war with Ukraine, while they have recently embargoed traffic out of and into Odessa, they still have not taken out the bridges over the Dnieper river or destroyed government buildings in Kiev. Other than the front lines, they have continued to strike ammo supplies, air defenses and equipment. Most of the damage to civilian infrastructure have been the result of air defense rockets of Ukraine, that if not hitting incoming target, have to land somewhere and no one can control where.

There is dissent and pressure within Russia to up the intensity of this conflict and get it concluded.  It seems the present strategy is attrition of the Ukrainian defenses and the pressure that is being experienced both economically and politically in western Europe. Russia may feel that a long extended conflict will in the end benefit it both politically and in the strategic long game. 

It appears this conflict will continue into the fall, unless there is a major development, it will then see problem's with food and energy particularly in western Europe.  This conflict will have major consequences for the world for a long time. It could have been avoided, if not for hubris and delusion by the architects of this crisis. Everyone will suffer from the consequences.