Ukraine peace negotiations, NATO, cluster bombs

 INSINCERITY, DEMONETIZATION HAS CONSEQUENCES

RUSSIA WILL NOT BE SNOOKERED AGAIN

There are surfacing leaks about ongoing peace talks between the United States and Russia. Supposedly these talks have been going on since April of this year.  Russia has always stated that they were willing to engage in negotiations. The United States has often publicly stated that there needed to be pre-conditions of some sort by Russia. This often included giving up territory now occupied by Russian troops. Public posturing is not the same as political reality, which is now becoming very clear to the United States, NATO and eventually Ukraine, who will do whatever its handlers decide.  

We can expect that the hope of the West is to cause some kind of cease-fire that will allow them to create a Ukrainian air force and rebuild and resupply the Ukrainian military. Russia will not fall for this again, they will keep talking but they will also keep eliminating Ukrainian forces and western military equipment.

They believed the west were interested in a peaceful solution in the Minsk accords, but recently learned from public statements from Macron and Merkle that it was all a ruse to allow Ukraine to be armed and trained for war with Russia. This insincerity has resulted in tens of thousands of Russian deaths and 100's of thousands of Ukrainian deaths. I suspect Russia is determined to get this dispute over now with a permanent settlement.

While there is talk of a frozen conflict by the West, now that its clear that Ukraine cannot prevail in this conflict, that western Europe is dying under sanctions that have hurt them more than Russia. That the NATO countries cannot produce enough munitions and the Ukraine  army will soon experience a WW1 French army moment. It is all going to soon just cease, then Russia will be ready to negotiate a permanent resolution. A resolution that will be very close to what was proposed by Russia, before the conflict began, but was given the collective middle finger by the West. Whether this will be negotiated by the current leadership of NATO, the EU or the United States, or new leaders, will remain to be seen. 

The road to this conflict began when the United States reneged on its commitment to Russia, during the reunification of Germany, that there would not be an expansion of NATO. This promise was soon broken and it is clear it was never meant o be kept. Ukraine and Georgia allying with NATO is a serous red line that will be adhered to by Russia, even if it results in all out war with NATO. Russia has built it's fortification in what was eastern Ukraine in preparation for just such a conflict.  It will either be negotiated or it will be all out war. It is not entirely clear what the decision by the West will be.

Tomorrow, NATO has the beginning of it much heralded annual meeting, Ukraine wants membership, not likely, as it would be, in effect, a declaration of WW3. It will set the course for the future of Europe, NATO and the EU, and there is not the public unity that is so celebrated.

The United States has announced it will send cluster bombs to Ukraine, a desperate act, as they will have no change in direction of this conflict. Cluster bombs controversy come from the fact that fresh supplies, which these are not, have a dud rate of 15%.  This is small munitions that fail to explode, from landing in tress, soft ground or defects. They then can lay around for years, until small children decide they are interesting, then lose limbs or are killed, many years later.  It was decided that Ukraine would receive these because there are severe shortages of standard ammo.

The future of Russia, NATO and the EU will be decided in the coming months. It will be a peaceful permanent agreement, or World War. If only the West had real diplomats and statesmen rather than incompetent ideological amateurs.