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Monday, February 5, 2024

Kiev chaos as Russian advance accelerates.

 WILL IT BE ZELENSKY OR ZALUZNY?

RUSSIAN INCREMENTAL ADVANCE MOVING EVERYWHERE


While the drama of who is being fired in Kiev unfolds, and the intense fighting all along the 600 miles of conflict line continues, it is steadily moving in favor of the Russian offensive. Many expect that there soon may be a collapse of the Ukrainian defense in one or several locations.

The reports of Zelensky attempting to fire the head of the Ukrainian Army, Valerii Zaluzny, and Zaluzny refusing to be fired or resign, are not good reports for Ukraine. It seems there is now open disputes about the conduct of this conflict. At this point Zaluzny is more popular than Zelensky, and if elections would be held, Zaluzny is rumored to be a candidate.

It seems the debate is about the mobilization of everyone between 18 and 60 and also the pressure on Zelensky and his American backers to go on the offense. It is clear that Ukraine can not successfully engage in any offensive operations on a large scale as they are experiencing shortages of manpower and ammunition. Actually an election would be the best thing to happen in Ukraine to defuse what could end up with a military revolt against the government.

While the U.S. interest is to continue this conflict, to at least after the November elections, it is going to be difficult to extend this for 9 more months. It will also result in a further loss of the manpower of Ukraine but also put Russia in an even stronger negotiating position. Sadly, there are so many conflicting interests involved that are not in the best interest of Ukraine.  

This conflict is now placing the western Europeans in an increasing hazardous social environment, much of it exacerbated by the green movement and complicated with the shortages caused by sanctions and the Ukraine war. It is doubtful that they can last another 9 months without serious upheaval.

This conflict is just one result of 30 years of western attempts to control by force the internal politics of much of the world. It is now all coming together from Ukraine to the middle east without any sign of rethinking the policy of intimidation, coercion and military intervention. This policy is entrenched in the U.S. and UK bureaucracy and unless reevaluated and discarded, with an effort at coexistence, it is going to end very badly.





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