Key Ukraine stronghold encircled.

 AVDIIVKA BATTLE NEAR END

KEY DONBASS CITY BEING EVACUATED

The battle for Avdiivka has been ongoing for many months. This city is within shelling range of the city of Donetsk and has been used by Ukraine for attacks on this city for 10 years. It now appears that this battle may be over in days. Russian forces  have now encircled 3 /4 of the city and several pockets of Ukraine forces have been completely surrounded. It is estimated that around 4000 Ukraine troops are cut off, except for 1 road that is within shelling range of Russian forces.

Mass evacuation by motorized vehicles may now be impossible and only small groups of soldiers on foot are able to escape. Many will now have only the choices to surrender or be destroyed.

While this is a major event in this conflict, hard fighting is continuing, but Russia is making increasingly large gains all along the conflict line. This event will likely have a psychological effect on many troops who are now realizing they are in an increasingly precarious situation. Still taking large casualties, and shortages of replacement manpower and ammunition, it is becoming more difficult to find encouragement in this fight.

Without serious air support, and a dwindling air defense capabilities, without some major interventions by other forces this conflict is destined to come to an end before years end. More money and more weapons is now unlikely to have any effect other than prolong the inevitable.

Sadly, it is now way past time for any positive negotiated settlement for Ukraine. It will most likely only get worse from here.