Real money is an asset that you own.

 

A BRIEF HISTORY OF MONEY

Money, we are all familiar with it, most want more, some to the point of  excess. It has been described as the, "Root of all Evil".  Realistically, we do need a certain amount, but I would like to talk about a simple brief history of Money.

Originally, most financial transactions were a form of barter, "I'll trade you a goat for that woven shirt that one of your wives made". Or, "I am tired of goats, how about we trade for some of your sheep". This all worked out well and good, but eventually someone got the bright idea of converting wealth to some form of exchange.

There is some record of salt being a form of exchange, or round stones with holes,  but most items were quick to lose their value when someone either found a pit with enough salt to flood the market or a method to mass produce stones with holes.

Eventually they settled on gold and silver as a form of money. Early records show that, as early as 2150 BC, the Shekel and Talent were used in the middle east, These were measures of weight,  A shekel was .36 of a troy weight oz. A Talent was equal to 60 manehs and 3000 shekels. This standard of weight was used by Egypt, Babylon, Phoenicia, Greece, Persia etc.  The ratio was 15 shekel's of silver = 1 shekel of gold.  Everyone had a balance scale to do business.

Finally, as governments grew and became more sophisticated, the minting of money began. This consisted of coins which were of a standardized weight, usually embossed with the image of  the King or individual in power at the time. It made trade much simpler and must have caused a recession in the scale business.

As is usually the case, it did allow for some skullduggery, clipping and shaving of coins was known to happen. Then Kings sometimes made the coins smaller with the same designation. This may have been the first form of Government endorsed inflation.  "Honey, were did we put that old scale?"

Interestingly, the size and weight of coins varied over the years, but the ratio of gold to silver was fairly constant from 500 BC up to the 20th Century.

Biblical  times-  12-1             Rome          12-1         Europe     0-1492        10-1

Early Greece      13-1             Early Japan  8-1                          1492-1834   15-1

Alexander          10-1             Early China  12-1        England                       16-1

The United States settled on the ratio of 15-1  The Constitution stated that all money was to be gold or silver coin.

O course, we have been talking about gold and silver coins. What about paper money?

In medieval Europe, gold and silver was the medium of exchange. When someone had a little more than needed for survival, they often placed it with a Goldsmith, who had a natural need for security in his business.  He would account for their items and give them a receipt.  The Rothschild's started out this way.  Humans sometimes being a little lazy, and not too careful about things, began to exchange the receipts for other goods and services and leave the gold with the goldsmith.  Goldsmiths, who were a little sharper than the average person of the day, soon realized that his receipts were as good as gold, and no one knew how much gold he really had stored for people. He was able to purchase Real-Estate, finance explorers to the new world and many other endeavors with his own receipts that did not represent gold in his possession. I could expound forever about how they used this power, but I will resist.

There were many known instances were these early bankers got a little too greedy, rumors circulated that there was more receipts than gold, and a run for their gold started.  When they could not produce the gold,  he might have been found hanging somewhere.

Remember, Politicians and Governments always take note of a good idea to increase their power and wealth.

Early paper money was a receipt for a weight of gold or silver, In the USA. a silver dollar was .7734 troy oz. of silver.  20 silver dollars could be exchanged for 1 Oz. troy of gold, a $20 gold piece. This was a ratio of 15-1. I personally remember silver certificates, which were supposed to be redeemable for 1 silver dollar. Up to 1934 you could exchange a $20 bill for a $20 gold coin. The US dollar had the reputation of being, "as good as gold". The gold-silver ratio today is 72-1.

In 1914, with passage of the Federal Reserve Act,  money no longer represented an asset, but would now represent Government debt. A promise to repay by the government.

In 1934, President Franklin Roosevelt, by executive order, ordered all citizens to turn in their Gold Coins in exchange for paper $20.00 bills. Private possession, or exchange of gold was outlawed. When the government decided they had confiscated all the gold they were going to get, they raised the price of gold to $35.00 oz., this was used for trade between countries. Those wonderful paper dollars they exchanged with the citizenry just became worth 43% less than the gold coins they exchanged.  Citizens were threatened with $10,000 fines and 10 years in jail for not cooperating.  Gold ownership was again legalized in December of 1974.

Silver still circulated as coins till 1964,  when they were replaced by alloys with no intrinsic value.

So now all money that exists, has  no intrinsic value, but only the confidence that someone else will exchange goods and services for it. While there are many instances in modern history where that confidence evaporated, so far most people are still willing to accept modern currency.

Currency itself is now in the process of being replaced with electronic currency, Bitcoin, Debit and Credit cards etc.. Endless possibilities, that will make the ancient clippers, shavers and dishonest goldsmiths envious.

originally published Oct. 12, 2015

It appears we are now coming to the end of fiat currency era, that is currency without any real built in value. What will replace it is yet to be seen. Big government would of course love to have currency that is just a digital entry, that they could manipulate, block, or devalue with a click of a computer. It seems some of the world is exploring another option that would be some form of real money. There is one of those age old truths that good money will always drive out bad money. That is true as long as there is an option of good money available. I expect we will seeing the new options in the near future. 
5/8/23

We now see the plan to introduce a central bank digital currency. Indeed, a monetary unit without any intrinsic value, unable to be held personally. It will allow governments to view every transaction, determine what transactions should be allowed, confiscate all wealth with the click of a computer key and in effect give government ultimate power over the people. It will be the end of all freedom of choice in a free market. It will give government the ability to tax, inflate, confiscate and dictate what can and cannot be traded. It will create all kinds of methods to avoid this trap and will be accompanied with the penalties to enforce that this is the only alternative money.

8/24/23

We can expect the unsustainable debt and deficits of the United States, accompanied by the desire of other countries to flee the use of the dollar, to reach a crisis in the near future. It is very likely that it will soon be clear that this debt will no longer find those willing to risk this haven for their real money. We can expect schemes to rescue this situation with possibly forced investment by IRA and 401's into U.S. debt or a sudden crisis followed by the end of this current fiat money system. We expect the cure to be total control of all assets.

5/3/2024

The EU is pushing to get its CBDC launched this year. As the debt situation in most of the western world is escalating many predict some sort of reset of the financial system. It will most likely be preceded by a debt crisis and then the roll out of the promised solution.

9/27/2024

We now see flight from U.S. bonds from countries around the world. It seems that interest rates are now possibly needed to rise to sell this debt. Those liquidating U.S. debt seem to be buying Monetary metal. The answer to shoring up the U.S. dollar and debt market is a balanced budget. With a $2 trillion deficit either raising taxes or cutting spending will cause a economic recession at best.

1/14/25

The purpose of this article is to hope to make people aware of what money is supposed to be. A store of value, an asset, not an instrument of manipulation by governments. 

3/17/2025

Gold is now $5200 an oz. silver $89.00 an oz. 57-1 ratio. No balanced budget in sight by any pollical party. The debt and deficits are unsustainable. The flight from fake paper money around the word continues.

2/27/2026

U.S. has 11 carriers, only 3 ready for deployment.

 HUGE DEFENSE BUDGET, NEVER QUESTIONED

HALF ARE SUPPOSED TO BE OPERATIONAL

As the U.S. is anticipating going to war with Iran in an operation that is very complicated and now is also of vital interest to all the major nuclear powers, it seems there is no real backup available for the those forces deployed in the region. While the forces deployed are massive, if it become prolonged, those force may be quickly placed in a catastrophic situation. 

It should be noted that in 1991 desert storm conflict the U.S. had 6 carriers deployed in the region. In 2003 it had 5 carriers in the region. Both those conflicts were for a situation in a country that was only 1/4 the size, a flat desert and an enemy with limited air defense, no satellite surveillance and not assisted by Russia and China. Iran understands that its country survival is threatened and is expected to use every available resource in retaliation.

Of the 11 major carriers in the fleet, we have the 2 in the region, we have 1, the George Bush, that has just left maintenance and in not yet considered ready. The JFK which is seaworthy, but not yet commissioned. 1 other, Nimitz being decommissioned and 6 in port for maintenance. Possibly in a desperate situation several could be deployed and arrive in several weeks. All would need to have planes put on board and supplied, no easy task.

Again, one must ask with a defense budget that dwarfs the next 10 countries in the world combined, how is this happening. Still no audit of the defense budget and no one even questioning why it is not happening.

I am no military expert by far, but is this adventure becoming a gamble, a gamble with the lives and resources of our country. Where is the risk assessment? Where is the anticipated casualty count? Is there a backup plan? What is the objective exactly? What is the exit plan?

I suspect it is mostly provided by Israeli intelligence, which claims, Iran is weak, ready to fall at any minute, it's population hates their government and is ready to fall like a house of cards. The same bullshit that applied to Russia.  We see the same players, John Bolton,  psychopath Lindsey Graham, and of course Bibi Netanyahu who has urged 4 previous presidents to go to war with Iran and all of them abstained, even when the country was in much better shape, militarily, and economically and Iran far less prepared.

I do believe Trump is searching for a way out, it may now already be too late, the momentum for war is moving and any hint of Trump not pulling the trigger will likely result in a false flag action by Israel or intelligence to make war impossible to resist. Even if Trump should mange to resist this war, the consequences will still be very serious for him. He is in a position that would take a political Houdini to escape.

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE QUESTION IS NOT IF, BUT WHEN? 

 

Watching the news we see economic crises worldwide. While we are not currently in a major downturn, we have been sort of treading water for the last 8 years. The  underlying problems with most economies, particularly western Europe and the United States, have not improved. In fact, the amount of debt and the future ability to deal with a downturn is a lot more unstable than before. The amount of debt held by Western countries, businesses and individuals, has actually increased since 2007. This election year we hear from some who believe if we just raise taxes on the wealthy all will be well. Others contend that all will be well if we can just instill confidence that a solution is near. Sorry. All will not be well. Taxes would have to be doubled in most cases, which will cause an economic collapse, or government spending would have to be cut in half, which will also cause a collapse.

Of course the problem is that there has been an accumulation of extraordinary debt by all governments, corporations, and individuals. There is not a precedent for this situation in human history. While the housing bubble was the symptom that was burst, when gas rose to $4.00 a gallon, in the US the massive debts held by everyone was the real problem. Debts of individuals can be traced to central banks that have not been willing to clear excess debts since the early 1980’s. Instead, they have encouraged and enabled individuals to borrow beyond their means to repay. We now see a classic debt collapse scenario where people are having a hard time servicing the debt they have and banks are raising standards to stop losses...with the economy stagnating until the debts are reduced to normal levels. This may take decades rather than years. 　

A far bigger problem is the debt of governments, particularly in Western Europe and the US. These debts are a direct result of massive spending and the whole idea of democratic socialism where votes were bought by promising unsustainable benefits...to individuals, spending on projects, surveys, studies, ad nauseum... to the well connected. When fulfilling these promises could not be sustained by raising taxes they just borrowed the money to be consumed. The spending on projects, etc. is more easily addressed by just saying "NO"...BUT the spending on benefits is much more difficult to address. The real culprit in all this is that socialism has been a dismal failure whenever it has been tried. I should qualify that by distinguishing between voluntary and involuntary socialism.

Voluntary socialism is self limiting. An example is fire insurance. If the incidence of loss becomes excessive, premiums go up and some people may refuse to buy insurance. If losses become excessive insurance companies may refuse to enter that market. There are natural limits for both parties.

The first instance of collectivist failure was recorded in the New Testament. The early Christians, thinking that the end was near, sold there possessions, dined together and shared with each other. It was not long until Paul, hearing complaints from the responsible members of the community, wrote to them saying, “He who does not work shall not eat.” Human nature and the voluntary basis of this experiment was a natural remedy.

Another example was the Puritans who landed in Plymouth in 1620. They formed the, "Mayflower Compact," an agreement to share all property and work in common. After 3 years of this experiment, they were barely able to survive. The Puritan's endeavor had been financed by investors in Europe who hoped they would reap a profit by the Puritans repaying their debts with furs and other goods. After 3 years of no return, investors refused to send any more support and the idea was scrapped. The Puritans then distributed land to each family and they were on their own - the result was the beginning of prosperity for all.  It was chronicled by William Bradford that while the number of people who were either too weak or incapable of work grew, and the young and motivated were increasingly unhappy with the communal arrangement, many who formally were unable to add much to the community instantly became more productive when they were able to keep the fruits of their labor.

Remember the 1960’s  communes, where a few self motivated people bought a ranch and lived off the land? It was not long until they were supporting a larger and larger number of new disciples, who agreed it was wonderful, except for the motivation part. Again it ended in a natural turn of events and human nature.

Now to involuntary socialism. Of course the greatest example has to be the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. This experiment was immediate total government control that in the end was a dramatic failure. It may take Russia several generations to recover from the debacle. While touted by Socialists as the wonderful system of the future, (including Eleanor Roosevelt who visited the country many times in the 1930s when the worst atrocities were being committed), Solzhenitsyn and others saw and reported the true nature of the experiment. It's interesting to note that from the revolution in the USSR in 1917 to its collapse in 1989 was 72 years. If we take 1935 as the "embrace of socialism" in western Europe and the US, we end up at 2007. Does it take roughly this long for the failures of socialism to become unsustainable? While we have not had total control by the governments of western Europe or the US, we have been progressing in that direction for decades...hence the term progressivism. It has been a slow incremental movement that has taken control of most industries through regulation and has encouraged dependency by promising a safety net to those displaced by their policies. The part of the private sector that has not been effectively controlled by the government is the food and energy sector. They are in the process of taking over the energy sector and when they can control food they will have complete control of the economy and the people. Remember the winners of socialist economies are the ruling class who often live well off on what they skim off of the redistribution schemes. Even in the Soviet Union they lived well in their dachaus and had access to  travel and benefits that could only be dreamed of by the rest of the population.

While it all appears wonderful in theory, Unchangeable Human Nature has not been taken into account. Humans will help each other to some extent, but most will not jeopardize their or their families well-being for others. On a voluntary basis, many are willing to help those in need, in danger, etc. but as soon as it becomes involuntary, there will be resistance. This is just the nature of human survival instincts. While it may not measure up to the expectations of the ideologues of socialism, it is probably superior to all other organisms on earth. The Soviet experiment ended when there were no longer any incentives left. The Russians who have weathered one form of dictatorship for their whole existence were noted to remark to each other, "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us." In the end the only prospering part of the economy was the black market and flea markets.

So what has happened in every case of involuntary socialism?  Those who believe they are taxed too much will resist by finding ways to pay less; those who believe they are restricted in some way will find ways around the restrictions. Too much tax will usually create less revenue, etc. At first this is accepted or minimally enforced, but as the deficits grow, enforcement must increase and we see a cycle of increased enforcement, then less activity, then less revenue and if left to follow a linear path to forced labor and slavery.

In the U.S. there was once a work ethic and pride of self reliance - many would not accept charity, but after decades of increasing regulation and taxation it seems all restraint has fallen off and everyone will take and pursue more benefits, even if liquidating assets and claiming poverty is necessary. The dam has broken. The tipping point has been reached. It will not likely be restored by government action, or by acts of Congress, the same applies to Western Europe.

So what is the solution? At this point there is no easy solution. All solutions will require much pain and suffering. It may be limited by economic suffering and the necessary austerity to liquidate the debt and begin a new start with liberty and self reliance the foundation...OR...it may be that more enforcement will be needed until we return to feudal type society where basic necessities will be provided to the productive and compliant and those that do not conform will be eliminated from society by the powers that be. This is the question that will be answered when the coming collapse reaches its fulfillment.

originally published 2/11/2016

update 9/1/22   We are about to see the fulfillment of this narrative, possibly within months in Western Europe and then on to the U.S.

update 3/10/2023  We see the new budget is increased by 1 Trillion dollars. Debt of over 31 Trillion. Inflation destroying buying power. It is all unsustainable. 

update 11/16/2023, all the problems are now more severe, $34 trillion debt, $2 trillion deficit. Bond market in trouble. Any attempts to fiscal responsibility labeled extreme. 

update 5/24/2024, U.S. now incurring debt at the rate of $1 trillion every 100 days. Gold $2450 oz. While all seems well, it is all unsustainable, Economic crisis on the horizon.

Update 2/19/2025. U.S. debt nears $37 trillion. Gold $2940. Trump and DOGE attempt to reform spending and fraud in budget. Many would rather go down with the ship than change this unsustainable course.

Update 7/21/2025. U.S. debt now over $37 Trillion. deficit near $2 Trillion. Gold $3300 per oz. All unsustainable.

Update 2/25/2026. U.S. debt now near $39 Trillion, deficit near $2 trillion, 25% of budget. Gold over $5100 per oz.  A major economic event could trigger the crisis of the century.

Iran war, more complicated by the day.

 NO UPSIDE FOR THE UNITED STATES

WILL TRUMP MAKE DEAL ANNOUNCMENT TONIGHT?

It seems the world has been on the verge of war with Iran forever, actually it is becoming tiring, just listening to the litany of reasons why a war with Iran is necessary. We hear about Iran being on the brink of being a nuclear power for now 30 years. We hear that they are the number 1 sponsor of world terrorism. We hear that the government is a fanatical doomsday religious cult that is a threat to the world. We hear that they are irrational and can never be trusted with a nuclear weapon. I suspect that it is all bullshit. There are no nuclear weapons, they actually have not attacked anyone who did not first attack them. They have supported groups who are resisting the Palestinian situation, much like the U.S. support of violent groups all around the world.

There are two real reasons why Iran has been on the radar for 46 years, if not 83 years, one is oil, Iran has large reserves of high quality oil, the good stuff, not the marginal oil of Venezuela.  The U.S., with the prompting of Britain, overthrew their first elected government in 1953, because the new government believed that their oil reserves should be used for the benefit of their people, not the fading British empire. They propped up the Shaw of Iran until 1979, 26 years, until the Islamic revolution replaced the dictatorship of the Shaw. 

The Shaw's power was maintained by the CIA trained SAVAK that had unlimited power to brutally keep the Shaw in power and thus insure access by the west to Iran's oil. They not only surveilled Iran but dissidents around the world, likely assisted by western intelligence. It is one reason why Iran in modern times has had real reasons to be suspicious of the U.S. and western powers. It is now hilarious if not so disastrous that the west is now pushing the son of the former Shaw who has neve been in Iran, to now run the country.

The number 2 reason is Israel, Iran historically has been the largest and dominate power in the region for centuries, if not millenniums. Much of that power has been neutralized by western powers in the 20th century. While many don't accept the reality that Israel desires to be the strongest military power in the region, an impossibility without the power of the US. These two reason are the 2 dominate reasons and then there is a third. 

Iran sits geographically in a pivotal position for the evolving trade aspirations of the global south and BRICS economic union. Iran is very important to the nuclear powers of Russia, China and even India in their hope of becoming a independent and alternative world economic system. A system that does not desire the destruction of the present system, except to be free to do business without the intimidation and sanctions that has become the policy of the west led by the United States. These other major powers have real incentives to see Iran free of western dominance and they a closely monitoring the situation and also now providing satellite surveillance and electronic assistance. This makes war with Iran now much more complicated. 

Iran is now in a position that they do not have to prevail over the United States and Israel, all they have to do is survive and inflict substantial damage on their adversaries, a very likely outcome. The prestige of the United States will be damaged if it cannot overthrow the government and partition up Iran. Can the United States easily replace the resources and equipment likely to be lost in this war? Much of the $39 trillion in debt of the U.S. can be attributed to previous military undertakings in the region, this will be the biggest, when the U.S. is the most fragile economically.

Then there was the interview with U.S., ambassador to Israel that stated that U.S. would not mind if Israel ruled the entire region. A political disaster at a pivotal time. To be realistic, the gulf allies of the U.S. are most likely a very fragile bunch, kept in line by military fear and unlimited dollars. Not to mention Turkey and Egypt, who I would not trust their support once there is blood in the water.

Then once the missiles and aircraft are in the air and the chaos of war begins, can the Chinese and Russian submarines feel they can accomplish plausible deniability of some limited assistance. 

So, Iran has made it clear, that they will negotiate terms that can insure, no nuclear weapons, but will not disarm its conventional defense or ability to be self reliant in nuclear energy. This deal was available over a year ago, but vetoed by Israel. Will Trump now proclaim victory, by announcing the deal of no nukes for Iran or risk the complications of war with Iran. We are now going to see his decision making result very soon.

Court reigns in Trump on tariff's.

 CONGRESS NEEDS TO ASSUME THEIR RESPONSIBILITIES

TRUMP HAD IT RIGHT IN FIRST TERM

On Friday the supreme court ruled that President Trump overstepped his authority with much of his tariff policy, it was a good decision. I suspect that Trump could have enjoyed a certain amount of leeway in his tariffs if he would have been consistent and keep tariff's as part of trade policy. His policy in his first term was to use tariff's as a tool to negotiate with trade partners to end their discriminatory tariffs on U.S. goods. It was a quicker way to balance fair trade without years of disputes in the World Trade organization, he had some success with that policy.

The idea of a flat 10% tariff on imported goods could be a good idea, if the revenue  would be used to improve infrastructure that is necessary to faciality trade, airports, ports, highways, all necessary for both domestic and international trade. A better way would be a flat assessment by percentage of trade with those that export to the country with a payment from those countries to the U.S. infrastructure fund, as a fee to gain access to U.S. markets. It would be non discriminatory and would be less likely to be paid by U.S. consumers. That and negotiations based on reciprocal tariffs, could be acceptable to all involved. The original idea was to negotiate to end tariffs.

In this term it seems Trump has gone astray with idea that he can effect foreign policy of both allies and competitors with imposing large tariff's to force compliance with issues other than trade. Some of this was forced by members of the Senate, one has to wonder if they hoped to effect change or damage Trump. Attempting to force others to not do business with Russia, at their economic damage, by oppressive and discriminatory tariffs. Tariffing India, but exempting China because China has more leverage than India, is likely to have a long term result of many just coming to the conclusion that trade with the U.S. is too complicated and even dangerous. The Idea inherited from previous administrations that there cannot be any country adopting a policy of neutrality, is bad policy. The idea that every country has to adopt the U.S. foreign policy objectives, even at their economic peril, will in the long run, force the much anticipated duel world economic systems, that will leave the western world behind.  

After one year of this policy, it is not too late to change course, the court has given Trump the out to move in a better direction, at least as far trade is concerned. If congress would assume their responsibilities, it could give him the out in ending of wars of regime change. Sadly, congress has morphed into efforts of short term political advantage, with little real policy or long term objectives. Most of them are  disgrace to their office.

Ready for WAR, time for congress to decide.

 TRUMP SHOULD DEMAND CONGRESS DECIDES

MAKE THEM VOTE

It seems the U.S. is now positioned to go to war with Iran. President Trump has indicated that it his decision, but constitutionally it is not, it is solely a decision to be made by congress. This should require several days of debate, with testimony from witnesses, They can even bring in some foreigners, like Netanyahu to make the case.

War needs a simple majority in both the House and Senate, but I would demand a 60% vote in the Senate, I think if 60% is required to pass spending bills, it should be required to engage in the biggest war since WW2. 

Trump should defer from making a recommendation, He should let the congress decide. Those advocating for war can be led by blood lusting psychopath Lindsey Graham, I am sure he would just love that job. 

Advocates and those opposed should have several days to call witness's to give their input, then a vote in the House and if passed then send it to the Senate to have a similar debate. That is the correct way to force the nation into a pivotal war that may have lasting consequences for all the citizens. It is their responsibility and it is high time they start to taking that responsibility, that they all seem to want when they decide to be representatives and senators. 

If it it approved, then it should be left to President to decide when such action should be taken or he could  veto their decision, it would then require a 2/3 vote to override, that is the right way to do this.

Trade wars and military action will never restore America.

 AMERICAS DECLINE IS ROOTED IN DEBT AND LOSS OF MANUFACTURING CAPACITY

THREATS AND FORCE ARE NOT THE REMEDY

While the country is in the verge of war, again, in the middle east, with a country that is not a real threat to the United States, but will cost the country billions in resources, no matter the outcome. Winning will not make us safer or more prosperous, but just add to the debt and loss of credibility in the world. 

For many years the United States has engaged in war, economic and military in an effort to sustain its global dominance. That dominance was earned post WW2 when the country was the number 1 producer of goods, the greatest manufacturing country and a dollar that was considered "As good as Gold" Sadly that is no longer the case. Its seems the policy for the last few decades is, that if we can contain, hamper or limit the success of our competitors we can sustain our dominance. It is a delusional and destined to fail policy.

While the  unrestrained rush to globalism has contributed to the problem, it cannot be remedied by attempting to limit others by denying them access either to the U.S. market or U.S. products. One example is that while China has become a dominant producer in certain areas it was willing to buy products from the U.S. that they did not have to expend resources to develop and it helped to limit the growing balance of trade deficit for the U.S., one was computer chips and also grain. Our genius policy makers decided that we should limit our sales to China of products that would assist in their development, the very products that helped us stay competitive at least in some areas. The most obvious was computer chips, which was a massive export by us to China, so we limited those sales in an effort to slow China down and they responded by establishing their own chip manufacturing and out produced and out sold our businesses, which then had less resources to keep up their dominance in that field. Our answer was for the government to subsidize those business's to keep them competitive.  More debt and dependence on government will most likely not keep them competitive. This will also add to the lose of our manufacturing base. Grain sales were replaced by other countries not engaged in containment policies.

China has the financial resources to focus and become competitive and even dominate in any field that they desire. The U.S. has near $39 trillion in resources tied up in debt that has financed prior spending. Until this situation is addressed, the U.S. will continue on a path of decline.

Then there is another group of geniuses who believe we can intimidate the rest of world to submit to our mandates, accept out debased currency, due to deficit spending, as payment, all under the threat of sanctions and military force. While we may have the most advanced and powerful military in the world, we should be seeing that it may be a hollow giant. How is it that insignificant Russia, "a gas station posing as a county" has been able to sustain and even out produce the whole of NATO in conventional weapons. Yet, we see the Defense budget increased and now hoping to increase it by 50% , without anyone asking the question, where is all the money going? A huge expenditure for a sector now considered "too big to Audit", sounds like a very similar excuse for excusing corruption.

U.S. stockpiles are admitted to be very depleted due to massive outlays of ordinance and equipment to Ukraine and Israel. While all this assistance may help the defense sector to be prosperous, will help most Americans? How dependent are we for vital material from the same countries we are trying to contain? Can the U.S. sustain a prolonged conflict without running out of ordinance?  A conflict that endures for months or years rather days? Can we replace ships and expensive equipment? I suspect that real military analysts are asking those questions, but are they being drowned out by donor paid for politicians.

I suspect that many of these questions will be answered in the near future.

 needed and did not have ot expend resources 

We can expect confrontation on the high seas.

 DO U.S. ORDERS TRANSLATE INTO INTERNATIONAL LAW?

LOOKING FOR THE DEFINNG MOMENT FOR WW3

One must wonder were the limits are to the U.S. control of the commerce of the world?   We all understand that the U.S. has the right to refuse to do business with anyone they don't approve. We understand that tariffs can be placed on anyone that the U.S. feels it wants to punish. Now it seems if countries just find other customers or trading partners we believe we can also damage their trading partners through tariff's and other economic warfare, that is possible, but should expect economic retaliation. 

Now since the use of an embargo or blockade of Venezuela and Cuba,  of course under the pretext of obeying international law, that now seems to be manufactured unilaterally by the U.S., we are seeing an attempt to expand the use of blockades and embargos around the world. No one questions that he U.S. has the most powerful Navy in the world. So far, no one has challenged this Navy since WW2. If the U.S believes that it can blockade advanced powers on the world stage without pushback, it has indeed gone down the path of delusional overreach.

It appears that the only nation that is willing to go down the path of WW3 is the United States. We will undoubtedly see either armed commercial vessels that will challenge being taken control of or escorted vessels in the near future. It is very likely that there will very well be an organized effort to preserve the right of navigation around the world. If this attempt to control commerce around the world continues there will be a confrontation in the near future. A confrontation that may be impetus to finally move this economic warfare to the real deal. 

The danger is growing by the day and when you put others in a existential threatening position, war will soon follow.

 Unbited /states.

There will be war, Just a question of who will start it.

 UNREALISTIC NEGOTIATIONS AND OIL EMBARGOS 

ACTS OF WAR, NOW EVERYDAY OCCURANCE

The most likely beginning of the next war is Iran. Indications are that Iran is willing to insure against obtaining nuclear weapons, but Israel has demanded that they must give up all nuclear energy enrichment and also their missile deterrent. While Trump at one time had an agreement with Iran on Nuclear weapons, that was rejected by Israel. It is reported that Trump was told by Netanyahu that either Trump destroys Iran's missile program or they will do it, and that the U.S. will then be forced by public opinion to join in. Under those conditions war is inevitable, Iran can never agree to disarm, especially at the instance of Israel. 

At the same time we have the increasing situation of the U.S. deciding to interfere in oil shipment worldwide. Besides the embargo on Venezuela oil, only to be sold to those approved by the U.S., they have begun to attempt to interfere with oil shipment out of Iran. This is likely to hamper Iran's monetary situation and also put pressure on China economically. These are now all act of WAR, which will inevitably lead to catastrophic results. Not only war with Iran, but China may also feel that interfering with their oil supplies is intolerable. There have also been attacks on Russian oil shipments in many places, some contend that it is a CIA operation.

Objectively, one must wonder why Iran has not yet initiated this war as it now seems inevitable and time is allowing more resources to become available against them, unless they feel time is on their side to prepare for this conflict and world public opinion will be unfavorable to the initiator.

At the same time, one must wonder how long Russia and China will allow interference of their vital commerce in international waters, both have substantial and effective submarine fleets capable of causing significant damage.

Some speculate that taking of Venezuela oil was a first step in preparation for a wide-ranging middle east war that will replace oil from that region. A wide-ranging middle east war will likely spread to a world war, with Russia and China realizing there is no plan for co-existence, only submission. It could be expected that every power in the middle east would quickly need to take sides and be involved, It would be a very unpredictable gamble as to where they would ally. 

It appears that he next few weeks may be a time of decision. Only a backdown by someone can now stop the rush to war. A backdown that is impossible for some and will have severe consequences for others.

The Epstein affair, reinforcing belief in deep state.

 BANKS TOO BIG TO FAIL, ELITE TOO BIG TO BE EXPOSED

The message is clear, there is a two tier system, where the elite movers and shakers are beyond the same rules as the average peasant.  I suppose that is one reason why all these important people flocked to the likes of Jeffery Epstein, so that they could qualify for this insulated status and set them on the road to prosperity and success. Lets face it, these people who willfully entangled themselves with Epstein are not victims, they are collaborators.

How Epstein amassed this power, or who he represented, may never be revealed, but it is clear that the "conspiracy theory" of a deep state has been clearly been revealed to be true.  

It explains why every president, regardless of party, adopts the same foreign policy of death destruction and chaos voiced by Epstein in some emails. Trump has been the only presidential candidate that voiced the policy of changing that direction, yet we witness daily the pressure and attempts to insure he does not stray from policies of the past. Policies that have set the country on a path of economic and political destruction. One must suspect that either he has been compromised or he will be eliminated if he doesn't produce the results envisioned by those who really run this country. I suspect that many of these coconspirators with Epstein are still active and powerfully moving their agenda. 

Some still have hope, that all this is still slowly being revealed and ultimately it will all come to light. Some still believe that a change of political parties in power will set the country on the road to renewal. Both parties, ultimately are controlled by those same people or organizations.   It seems they play a tag team with domestic policy, but in big issues they all are identical.

Nothing will change until this power structure is destroyed and leaders truly represent the citizens, rather than powers in high places.

 

Time for U.S. to focus on the Homeland.

 A STRONG AND UNITED HOME, CRITICAL FOR SUCCESS

POLICING THE WORLD, WHILE THE HOUSE BURNS DOWN

It has been a pattern for U.S. presidents that they invariably get bogged down in interventions and entanglements in many diverse places, while the domestic situation disintegrates. For decades this country has allowed its manufacturing base to deteriorate, its fiscal situation become unsustainable and has continued to focus on managing the rest of the world. A world, for the most part that seems to be managing itself more successfully, often in spite of U.S. interventions. 

With a debt near $39 trillion, often as result of these interventions and meddling, a manufacturing sector that is now only 10% of GDP, 750 military bases around the world and a proposed increase in the military budget of 50% to $1.5 trillion. A deficit that is 26% of the 2026 budget. That translates that over 1/4 of the spending this year will be financed by borrowing. Yet if you listen to the debates in congress it is mostly about how much more money we need to spend to protect the U.S. from all those adversaries plotting our destruction. We do not need any adversaries, we are furthering out destruction very well on our own.

It seems some believe we can make our situation better by attempting to weaken or destroy our adversaries whether economic or political. Is prosperity now a relative thing, as long as others are worse off, we are better off. That mentality is not how America became a great nation. Do we need to break the leg of our opponents in the hope of winning the economic race. Everyone will end up poorer.

There was hope of focusing on the western hemisphere as a region of mutual prosperity, were all would cooperate in an effort for mutual betterment, that hope has morphed into some perverted effort at neo colonialism, were the U.S. will prosper at the expense of its neighbors by military force if necessary. A losing proposition, all will become poorer and will demonstrate to the rest of the world that doing business with China and others is more in their interest. Much of the rest of the world does have a vision of mutual prosperity, not, lets knock everyone else

down so we will look prosperous.

Then there is the effort to force the continued use of the dollar as the reserve currency. An insane effort, the dollar became the reserve currency because it was considered "as good as gold", which is no longer the case. Indications are, and the word takes notice, there is no effort in congress or the executive to resuscitate the dollar from it imminent death, just a lot of threats and innovative financial schemes.

It is becoming more obvious by the day that the country is torn in many directions by those who want to sow death, destruction and chaos in the hope of reaping  some perverted profit. Are we now focusing our manufacturing on producing arms in the hope that they can all ultimately go up in flames and require more of the same. Is that what this country has become?

If this country is to survive there needs to be national reevaluation, how can we get our house in order? How can we again be a example to the rest of the world? An example in a positive image, rather than what no one should want to become.

 

Peace negotiations will have no result.

THERE IS NO CREDIBILITY LEFT

ALL ABOUT HOPING FOR THE IMPOSSIBLE

We were all in anticipation that a new administration would have a point of view that could make for serious changes in U.S. foreign policy. After one year, we now see that no new policies are possible in U.S. foreign policy. What is possible is that U.S. foreign policy will only change when it can no longer function economically and even militarily. That time is coming and it is understood by those on the other side of these negotiations, better than the American people.

U.S. foreign policy has not changed in any way, it is till the belief that the U.S. is the center of world and everything needs to revolve around its interests. Negotiations are only used when it is hoped to either deceive the other party or gain time to pursue other paths to supremacy. 

The latest is the ongoing negotiations between Iran and the United States. Only a agreement that would end the sovereignty of Iran and allow them to be disarmed would be acceptable. What is desired is what has been know as the Libyan or Ghadaffy plan. Promise that all one has to do to be an acceptable member of world society is give up your weapons and all will be well, then proceed to destroy the country and leave it in a state of chaos and destruction. It seems the world is now wise to this scheme and no longer bites at this ruse. Much of the world has already understood that western non government agencies, all mostly CIA fronts, intent on creating division and chaos from the inside. The only reason war has not begun is that Iran has acquired enough defensive missiles to make war very costly both to the United States and Israel. If those missiles are eliminated or easily protected from, war would ensue quickly. It has also become a practice in negotiations with the U.S. that one can expect attempts at assassinations of negotiators and leaders while negotiations are on going. That has happened in both negotiations with Iran and Russia. The world has witnessed these practices and now understand the situation.

Middle east countries many who have been allies of the United States now understand that if Iran falls they may be next on the menu. Concerns are now being floated that Saudi Arabia may have nuclear weapons and that Turkey could be a threat to Israel. It is reported that talks are beginning between these countries of a unified defensive origination, similar to NATO. A natural result of the endless conflict in the region.

While I expect that most Americans believe that all is fair in war and conflict, it will in the long run fully destroy any trust that is the basis for any meaningful negotiations, whether political or economic.

While many in Washington believe that they can prevail in global relations, the other side understands that they do not have to defeat the U.S. militarily, they just need to run out the clock and the country will continue to self destruct economically, and eventually militarily. The U.S. has expended itself on attempting to rule the world and will continue to do so until it no longer can. 

 wise to this 

Lots of Epstein dialogue, but no revelations.

 NOT ONE INSIDER HAS DARED TO SPILL THE BEANS

IT APPEARS THE POWER BEHIND EPSTEIN IS STILL POWERFUL

We continuously hear debates and email snippets about what was going on with Epstein's empire of global elite leaders. We understand that most all the leaders in politics, science and finance had connections with Epstein. Most of the scrutiny is focused on young women and sex, but little is focused on what was this empire and what was its purpose?. Many assume blackmail, but not one person, in all these years has admitted to being compromised by Epstein. While we hear of accusations of rape etc., it seems that the victims consented to what was going on. While we hear much about under age, I have yet to see a list of the ages of these victims, of course without their identities. 

There are strong indications that Epstein and Maxwell had connections to numerous intelligence organizations, mostly Mossad and Mi6, it can only be assumed that the CIA and FBI knew what was going on with Epstein.

What is becoming obvious is that all the participants were willing and enthusiastic participants and not one has ever yet conveyed their personnel experiences and interactions with this elite Club. What did they gain by this networking? Why were they there? We are being distracted by the allegations that all this was about sex, I suspect that the powers behind Epstein still retain that power and most likely the networking is still going on, but much more descreatly.

We have yet to hear from the technicians who operated all the video and audio equipment.  It seems the only testimony is by women who were used as entertainment for these meetings. No one, as far as I have heard, has revealed what  these meetings were about and of course who financed all this.  Then we hear the feeble attempt to claim it was financed by Russian intelligence, another weak attempt at discraction. 

I suspect that we are being entertained by a dog and pony show about sex, always something that will captivate the interest of the masses. I doubt that there any serious attempts, even by those who claim to be the maverick investigators, to ever reveal what was and still is the workings of this elite club of global leaders.

Bibi's coming, Will it now be war?

BIBI'S VISITS USUALLY PRECEDE VIOLENT ACTION 

IS HE COMING TO ENCOURAGE OR FOR SAFETY?

Bibi Netanyahu is coming to Washington tomorrow, his appearance in Washington usually indicates that some sort of violent action in about to transpire in the middle east. One must wonder why a phone call would not suffice or other secure communications, always a personal appearance.  Is Trump recording all these private meetings for posterity? never a leak of these meetings.

Some speculate that Bibi is concerned that Trump is going to make a deal with Iran concerning nuclear enrichment that allows them electric generation or other peaceful enrichment, but promises of no nuclear weapons. This has been the narrative for decades, "no nuclear weapons for Iran". It has been the enduring litany that Iran is within days of having nuclear weapons and if they obtain them they will immediately eradicate Israel and then the United States. After all, Iranians are by nature religious fanatics that need to be marginalized or even eradicated if possible. There is lots of evidence that Iran discontinued their weapons program in 2003, primarily because their wacko religious leader believes nuclear weapons are immoral, astonishing that any leader in todays world would believe that anything is immoral.

In their first negotiations the goal was to guarantee no nuclear weapons, but allowed for the enrichment for electric power and other uses, Iran agreed, but Bibi nixed the plan insisting that Iran could not engage in any nuclear enrichment, which everyone understood was impossible for Iran to accept. Then after Israel attacked Iran in June 2025 and assassinated their scientists and political leaders, Iran had the audacity to inflict serious damage on Israel with missile attacks. That has now caused Bibi to insist that Iran cannot have a conventional missile program either. It is not acceptable that a nation of 90 million should have any deterrence against a nation of 9 million. 

So, tomorrow we will see what's up, Trump has been reluctant to engage in war with Iran, mostly for practical reasons that U.S. forces will likely suffer some casualties or even many casualties, Israel will be hit hard with a missile response from Iran, that will encourage escalation and the world oil supply will be effected causing a world economic crisis. So far, Trump has evaded this war against pressur from the cheer leaders for war in the Senate, and Israel, who believe in the invincibility of U.S. and Israeli military power, a theory that will be tested if war ensues.

Then again the decision for war may have already been made and Bibi is just here to join his family in safety until their theories are tested.

NFL can't help being political.

 SPANISH HALF TIME SHOW

IS THE NFL NOW AN INTERNATIONAL SPORT?

Until last night, like many of the entertainers on Super Bowl half time shows, I never heard of Bad Bunny.  One has to wonder what is going on with the organizers of these half time shows, or their sponsors, they just cant help using these shows to make political statements.

First off, it seemed the whole show was in Spanish, without any appropriate translation at the bottom. I guess if you are not Spanish speaking this show was not aimed at you. Do they really think that they made a positive effect on any dialogue about immigration or was it just an opportunity to stick a thumb in the eye of non Spanish speaking watchers, who I assume was the vast majority. Was this all about attempting to provoke Trump, is that what the Super Bowl is now about? 

It also appeared that the majority of adds featured non white actors. In fact many had no white actors at all. Is the viewership of the super bowl no made up of a majority of nonwhites? Does this really aid in inclusion or encourage division?

So, it does prove that WOKE politics is not dead and much of the major media is still in some sort of a biased anti-American mind set. A mind set that believes that the world has a new home in America, if they choose, with all the privileges of citizenship, but requires citizens to provide the funding or assume the debt required to sustain all these inhabitants. They have a dream of a world without borders, without rules or consequences, as long as someone else is paying. It might be good idea for citizens to take note of these advertisers and scrub them from the list of products or services they purchase. 

I suspect this type of messaging will not have a positive effect on any dialogue about immigration, it just reinforces the need for escalated enforcement of immigration law.

 to  to take note to all those advetisers and eliminate them form their  

What is the plan for Cuba?

 IF YOU BREAK IT, YOU WILL NEED TO FIX IT

LIKELY TO BE A U.S. DEPENDENT

It is seems there is much anticipation of the end of present Cuban government. The embargo surrounding Cuba has left the island without reliable electric and even a scarcity of food. Proponents believe that the present government cannot last much longer. One has to ask the questions, how is this going to be accomplished and who is going to take over politically in Cuba?

I don't see a viable opposition political movement ready to step in, if the present government falls. I doubt that the population of real Cubans, that is the Cubans who live there now and have lived under the present system, are the same culturally as the Cubans of pre 1960. They have been born and raised under a socialist dictatorship and culturally are far removed from their ancestors in Miami. I suspect very few pre-1960 Cubans are still alive. 

I recall in 1959 listening to my radio as I went to bed of Castro marching into Havana and Batista fleeing to the Dominican republic and then to Spain. I also recall the rejoicing in the U.S. with parades of excitement in New York city. Of course I have no idea what was behind the rise of Castro, one must believe that the CIA knew who Castro was and likely supported his revolution. They has already engineered regime changes in Guatemala and Iran. One has to wonder where they played by Castro or did their agreement go bad.

After 66 years of the present government, which seems to be much more laid back than under the original revolutionaries, the island, from watching travel documentaries, appears to be run down in every way and the population seems also to be very laid back, living the life hoped for by many U.S. socialists. One has to wonder if these real Cubans really want to be saved by the U.S. 

Saving Cuba, of course has been a dream for many U.S. politicians and former Cubans whose ancestors once lived there. Most of the Miami Cubans have never set foot in Cuba.

Again, the question is, who is going to run Cuba in the future? Will it be real Cubans or transplants from Miami? What will happen if Cubans receive the right to vote and then vote for people not acceptable to the U.S. government? Will it be back to sanctions and threats? Do the Cubans of today want their island to be filled with Casinos and resorts or offshore investment havens? Maybe they do, I really have no idea, but has anyone asked them?

No matter what, Cuba has no oil, just sugar and Cigars, both out of favor in the 21st century. Cuba is going to need billions of investment in infrastructure without the means to provide that, so it will be the responsibility of the U.S. to provide that investment, probably for decades. Cuba has primarily been dependent on the Soviet Union and then Venezuela, so it may be the U.S. turn to take over that responsibility. After all, we are the richest country in the world, and saving the Cubans is worth the cost. 

Last nuclear limitation treaty expires.

 ARE THESE DECISIONS BASED ON FALSE ASSUMPTIONS?

NO LIMITS, NO TRANSPARENCY, COLD WAR 2

Yesterday, the strategic nuclear arms treaty expired, it had been in place since 1991. Originally this treaty limited Nuclear warheads to 6000, then reduced them to 1550 in 2010. It was the last remaining treaty that came about after the breakup of the Soviet Union, All the treaties were ended by the United States.

Trump ended the intermediate range arms treaty in his first term. It was ended, with the advise of John Bolton in the supposed hope of eventually including China in the treaty. Other treaties that have expired is one that limited conventional arms in Europe and one that allowed open flights over each others territory to insure compliance.

Putin has proposed several time that Russia was willing to extend the current treaty for 1 year. His proposals were never responded to by Trump or any of his administration.  

There are indications that this administration is being advised that a new cold war will force Russia into economic problems by not being able to compete in an arms race with the United States. This philosophy is based on the prevailing narrative that the Soviet Union collapsed because it could not keep up with arms spending by the United States, ironically the nation with a $39 trillion debt and a marginal manufacturing base. Of course, a new arms race will be very profitable for those who live by war, death and destruction.

Policies based on false intelligence and false assumptions which usually fail can also be very destructive. In this case it sends the message to the world, that it can expect little efforts at real peace treaties, and only that prevailing in military power will disputes be settled. 

The assumption that military spending brought about the end of the Soviet Union rather than a realization by the leaders of that country that Communism or Socialism was a dead end street and made the appropriate but painful effort to change their economic and political polices. An example that would serve most western nations well, as they flounder in an attempt to preserve their former status.

Looks like ICE is preparing for eastern Pa.

 WILL LARGE TASKFORCE SOON BE ACTIVE IN EASTEN PA.

SEVERAL NEW FACILITES TO AID IN DEPORTATION

ICE must be planning on upping the anti on immigration enforcement in Eastern Pa. The new facility they just purchased in Berks county can only be used when a enhanced presence comes to eastern Pa. It could be expected that this facility could also be used for processing migrants from New Jersey and New York. 

At present it seems most ICE activities have been in the Midwest and West coast, a least by large numbers of  organized forces. While ICE activities are ongoing all over the country, including in eastern Pa., it does appear that large organized efforts are in the process of moving to specific areas and then when all the low hanging or easy to find suspects are rounded up, then moving on to other high priority places. 

While many believe that bad publicity and high profile incidents will slow enforcement, that probably is not the case. As time goes on and policies are perfected we can assume that they have a long list of potential places for high propriety focus. It seems they are taking particular interest in voter roles as a means of choosing those priorities. We can assume there are also other ways of them prioritizing their efforts.

In Pa. most of the law enforcement agencies have good communications with ICE and alert them when they apprehend illegal migrants. We can assume that ICE task forces will soon identify were that is not case and make their decisions accordingly.

Areas with political obstruction may be the places that they feel a task force approach is needed.

It may be the case that areas were politicians make the most effort to protect illegal migrants will be placed on the priority list for high profile task force enforcement. They may be better served to at least give the appearance of cooperation rather than making transparent challenges.

  

Are Epstein files now becoming another propaganda tool.

 DOES ANYONE REALLY BELIEVE THAT EPSTEIN WAS FINANCED BY RUSSIA?

INTENTIONALLY DISCREDITING EVERYTHING

The latest headline on Drudge report is that Epstein was financed by the KGB. Drudge once a source of valid revelations has long been just another purveyor of disinformation. Their latest attempt to shift the power behind Epstein to Russia and the KGB, an organization that hasn't existed since 1991, when it was disbanded, is as outrageous and simply a desperate attempt to hide and shift the attention away from what is now common knowledge. Epstein was an agent for Mossad and likely British intelligence.

This ham fisted attempt is likely to now put into question the validity of much that will now be released or is it being manufactured in present time. Can we soon be told that Iran, China and Venezuela are also coconspirators in the Epstein saga. I suppose many would feel better if that was the case.

The KGB was disbanded in 1991 after organizing a coup in Moscow, it was replaced by the FSB in 1995 after a thorough cleansing, something that it appears needs to be done in most of the western intelligence agencies. It seems their function is no longer to provide real time intelligence of leadership to make informed decisions but to assist in an agenda either self promoted or orchestrated by others.

Epstein had contacts with every nation, and may have contacts in Russia, but common sense tells us in that time period Russia was in the process of survival and renewal and hardly had the resources to support honey pot schemes in the western world, especially with operatives that had obvious ties to Israeli and British intelligence.

One possibility is that many Russian children were adopted by westerners in that time period and some may have seen this as an opportunity to acquire unfortunate children for their devious purposes. That is a very real possibility that should be investigated.

Can Trump wiggle out of war with Iran.

 CHOICE BETWEEN APPEARING WEAK AND ECONOMIC CRISIS

WILL IRAN GIVE HIM AN EXIT?

As days go by it appears that Trump is looking for an off ramp concerning the so called imminent attack on Iran. One must wonder why he believed that Iran would cave on the Israeli demands that they give up all nuclear enrichment, even for peaceful electric generation and essentially disarm.

We can expect that he is being told by Mossad and U.S. intelligence that Iran is ready to collapse at any moment and a little shove is all that is needed. At the same time, Israel is claiming that they will not be a part of any attack on Iran, hoping that they will be spared in the expected retaliation by Iran. The same goes for all the gulf countries claiming they will not allow their bases and airspace to participate in any attack. Operatives in U.S. media claim that Iran is weak and has no ability to harm anyone with retaliation. Trump is now in a no win situation, exactly were several different factions want him. 

It seems Iran is ready to engage in a standoff, and there is little room for negotiations to satisfy the demands of the U.S. and Israel. It will either be a back down by Trump or regional war with all the consequences. A win, win, for Trump's domestic enemies. A back down will unleash many forces to remove him from office, both domestic and from Israel.

The other possibility is that Trump may believe he can use this Armada to embargo oil shipped out of Iran, this would further damage Iran's economy and also cause pain for China. It is unlikely such an attempt to blockade Iran will not result in military conflict, not only with Iran but those who buy Iranian oil. It would also cause escalation with economic reprisals from China. We should expect to see a further sell off of U.S. debt by most foreign holders of that debt. 

We have also watched as China inked a trade deal with Canada and the UK and some expect soon with Mexico that will allow Chinese autoes to soon be readily available in North America. These autos will take market share from U.S. auto's.

The attempt to enforce U.S. sanctions and economic threats will inevitably lead to war or an understanding that the world is changing and the U.S. needs to adapt and manage those changes  in a cooperative and peaceful manner.