WILL EUPHORIA BE SHORT LIVED?
THIS WAR MAY BE TRIGGER TO BEGIN GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS
Today is the third day of war with Iran. It is the result of over 75 years of conflict concerning Iran. We are already hearing boasts of victory and anticipation that Iran will surrender very quickly. While Iran will suffer greatly, it should be noted that air wars without real boots on the ground has had poor results even in disputes between major modern powers and less well equipped opponents.
After over 2 years in Gaza, Hamas is still surviving. The conflict with the Houthis and the U.S. ended with the U.S. declaring victory and leaving the Houthis still operational. I can't recall any major war that ended with surrender after an air campaign. To really conquer Iran may require at least 800,000 ground troops. Lindsey Graham is already suggesting U.S. special forces go in to encourage internal revolution, He should volunteer to lead these troops.
There are now a myriad of complicated incentives at work that could very well make this a regional months long conflict, if not longer. Trump is hoping that Iran will want to negotiate in days, Iran has now made it clear that they expect to continue until Israel and the U.S. experience enough pain to desire a permanent resolution, with Iran remaining a viable country. They admit that they may fail, but will not surrender.
Israel hopes that Iran can be destroyed and dissected into small manageable parts. They have stated that they can weather 700 missiles fired into their country, we will see. They have also threatened the nuclear option, Armageddon for the region for sure.
Trump believes Iran will quickly sue for peace and cave to Israel's demands. The U.S. military resources, depending on the intensity of their consumption, will be experiencing shortages in several weeks. Iran's first focus has concentrated on U.S. bases in the gulf, attacking bases in 8 countries, bases necessary for resupply.
The gulf countries are now experiencing unexpected disruption of revenue with air traffic suspended in the whole region. This plus the closing of the Hurmuz strait will soon have global economic consequences. Iran can keep this closed one way or another.
While much is made of the attacks on Iran, this has been mostly tomahawk and cruise missiles fired off shore of Iran. Attack aircraft are not flying over Iran. There is a limited supply of these missiles and ships need to port to restock. At present the ships are 800 miles from Iran and all ports are within range of Iran's missiles.
This conflict will definitely have a clock running, which will either require much escalation or another way out.
While Russia and China will not directly get involved, they will be happy to assist in the bleeding of U.S. assets through supply and operational surveillance and targeting information, very similar to what NATO does with Ukraine. For them the longer the war goes, the better. Shortages of Oil will raise revenues for Russia and have more customers lined up to purchase oil.
Today gold and silver are way up, oil has already risen to $74 a barrel and is expected to increase to $100 soon. This is without a doubt going to cause global economic havoc.
The killing of 87 year old Khomeini is going to have long term consequences, it will harden the resolve of Iran, It is already causing unrest in Iraq and Pakistan and will also have consequences internally in the gulf countries. The boasting of his death is despicable.
He was the internal roadblock to Iran's acquiring nuclear weapons, no none knows what his replacement's policy will be.
Khomeini was the spiritual leader of Shia Muslims, 200 million worldwide. They are majorities in Iran, Iraq, and Asia, but have populations in every Muslim country. Despite the demonization of him by the west, He was revered by Shia's, I expect the vast majority of people in the west never once listened to his speeches, he spoke well, very reasonable, and man of spiritual faith. Heresy to speak that way in the west. He was comparable to the Pope to Catholics.
Sadly Americans are historically illiterate and are unwilling to listen to what anyone has to say other than their propaganda narrative. I suspect most American leaders suffer from the same problem, lots of talking, but little listening.
It is taking its toll, lets hope it ends well.
