New U.S. foreign policy strategy underway?

 ATTACK ON VENEZUELA MAY NOT BE NECESSARY

GLOBAL SPHERES OF INFLUNECE MATERILIZING

It is now appearing that the new U.S. strategy is underway, it is not up for debate. It seems that the U.S. has decided it cannot control the world, but hopes to control the western Hemisphere. Venezuela and the fleet that is currently there is an indication of this strategy. It is likely an agreement with Russia has already been made to withdraw from at least the Caribbean in exchange for the U.S. deciding that the Ukraine project is now a loser for the U.S. It does have the power to strangle Venezuela into submission, especially if its other options decide it is in their best interest to move on.

While the Caribbean may be an easy area for the U.S. to control, Brazil, a founding member of BRICS, probably will be another matter. We can assume that the U.S. can control all of North America, Central America and the Caribbean area, by the threat of military power. It may be able to coax much of South America by a combination of real diplomacy, respect and mutual cooperative economic prosperity. The question will be, can the U.S. engage in such a policy over an extended time. 

It is appearing that the Middle east strategy of the past that cost the U.S. near $10 Trillion and many lives, both our own and those of the region, is coming to an end. It has already been announced that U.S. troops are leaving Syria and one can expect the same will soon happen in Iraq. It is hoped that influence can be maintained by diplomacy and mutual cooperation, we will see if that is possible.

It is being acknowledged that the U.S. cannot contain China by economic means and military conflict is a gamble at best. China this week set an all time record of a $1 Trillion trade surplus with its trading partners. The U.S. has realized how dependent it has become on Chinese goods in most every sector. 

A key to the evolving spheres of influence can be indicated by a world map, something anyone who is interested should have. It can be predicted that the long term history of alliances and trading partners is reemerging as the impossible task of world domination by any one power comes to an end.

One might expect to see troop and base closings in more areas as the U.S. has over 750 bases around the world, more than can be afforded.

We are going to hear and watch as the accusations of surrender, treason and other allegations can soon be expected, but the reality is the big threat to the U.S. is not China or Russia, but an escalating debt and an unsustainable baked in fiscal policy coupled with an economy based on financial transactions rather than wealth producing manufacturing. It may take decades of unified discipline to turn this all around. The real challenge to the U.S. is mostly all at home.

U.S. proposes new National security strategy.

 OPENING TO NEW GLOBAL ORDER?

REALIZING THE NEW REALITIES?

Last week we witnessed a 30 page document that seems to indicate the Trump administration's opening attempt to bring about discussion and dialogue to a new view of the world order that has existed for the last 80 years. While only a sketchy outline, it does indicate a willingness to embrace the realities of a changing world and the limitations of Washington's position in the world.

It embraces the need for an end to the Ukraine conflict as being important to be able to address other very important issues. It essentially dismisses Europe as being now on a path of irreversible decline. It hints at a new upgraded Monroe doctrine for Washington's relations with the western Hemisphere. It is willing to downplay China's threats to an economic competitor. It also notes the dangers to any changes threatened by entrenched bureaucracies or "deep state " in the west. It is obviously a proposal for negotiation and dialogue, not an executive order.

Concerning Russia and it relationship with the west it admits NATO expansion is now to be reconsidered and may even coincide with Putin's often talked of  "new security architecture" to avoid big power conflict. One can expect that those lengthy meeting in Moscow are indeed talking about more than Ukraine. Some speculate that besides the trash talking with China there are other more serious talks ongoing.

While we can expect that we will soon hear about Trump's weakness in facing challenges from our adversaries and possibly a move by many to force him out, rather than embrace any changes in the U.S. foreign policy, the changes happening will not be ended or possibly even be delayed. Real  military confrontation is not desired by anyone, and these changes can be diplomatically embraced with a new spirit of cooperation and realizing the limitations now becoming a reality.

While many will say we need a new president and a tough stance to the world, the reality is the United States hegemony is quickly eroding and no new personnel will change that fact.

It is indeed a difficult period that, if to be successful, will require some bi-partisan cooperation to engage in a debate and negotiation balancing the best interests of the country with the realities tied to the massive debt and deficits which are now unsustainable and have eroded the economic and inevitably the military power of the United States. 

Political trash talkers, global rearmament.

 TALKING TOUGH, GOOD FOR ARMS BUSINESS

MANY SHOULD BE FIRED FOR LOOSE TALK

It is now almost a daily occurrence that some government leader or official makes threats of war. In most case it is trash talk, in an attempt to appear tough or decisive, it usually results in increased war preparation and worse diplomatic relations between all involved. We have many examples, George Bush 2 in his infamous declaration about the "Axis of evil" describing Iran, Iraq, and North Korea. At that time they had little cooperation or any real connection to each other. This statement was directly followed by the invasion of Iraq and the move by Iran and North Korea to obtain a nuclear deterrent. North Korea has since become a nuclear power, but Iran has decided it was not the direction they wanted to go, but the trash talking continues and it is wonder that they have not become a nuclear power. They have since become more cooperative with each other.

Then of course there is the Russia/Ukraine situation, U.S. trash talkers run their mouths off contumely, demonizing Russia, boasting about killing Russians and encouraging Ukraine that they can prevail over Russia.  A disaster for Ukraine and a massive rearmament of Russia and NATO. This week we heard an Italian leader of NATO suggest that NATO should consider a pre-emptive strike on Russia, we can only assume he meant a nuclear strike.  Russia's response was clear and then also caused more trashing talking about Russia's aggression. We could only expect that Russia will push to shorten the time needed to respond to any such provocation. We also had a U.S. general in NATO brag that NATO could take over Kaliningrad, a Russian parcel in the Baltic, in days. He didn't mention what would happen after that. Both these high ranking bull shitters should have been fired immediately.

We can also remember a pacific operations U.S. air force general that predicted we would be at war with China by 2025. Then we complained and were astonished by a huge increase in Chinese military preparations. This guy should have been fired immediately.

Today, it's now South America were military preparedness is being increased by nations in the region often with the purchase of advanced weapons from Russia and China. Much of this trash talk is coming from the administration and the consequences will be an increase, if that is possible, in distrust of all things U.S.

While the long term diplomatic consequences are still unknown we can expect none of this talk produces a positive result. Of course, it will increase the debt of many of these nations and will be good for arms manufacturers, maybe that is what it is all about anyway.

Eu miffed at U.S. Ukraine position.

 TRUMP IS EXITING UKRIANE CONFLICT

NATO NO LONGER HAS A PLAN

It seems clear that the results of the 5 hour meeting in Moscow between Putin and Trump's negotiators has infuriated NATO. We can only assume that NATO now understands that Trump is distancing the U.S. from this conflict. It is understandable that having committed to the U.S. Ukraine project they are now in the position of dealing with the consequences. While many will blame Trump, the reality is that this conflict is now going poorly for all involved. Ukrainians are dying in massive numbers, the economies of western Europe can only decline without access to Russian energy and the U.S. is attempting to deal with a massive debt with its possible severe economic crisis. Russia is of course also suffering, but this is an existential threat to their survival and will not compromise on their objectives.

They have the choice of sucking it up, putting their hubris under a blanket and moving on or go to war with Russia. It is an easy choice, if you face the choices objectively and rationally. There are lots of players who still refuse to move on.

The U.S. is beginning to realize that the era of Pax Americana is coming to a close. We have squandered our sound dollar, our manufacturing base and are now left with a massive debt and deficits as far as the eye can see. Cutting spending like the proposals of Musk and DOGE will result in reduced economic activity, as much of the new economy is dependent on Government spending. Raising taxes while seemingly easy will also result in reduced activity and possibly a flight of capital out of the country. There is no EASY solution and the sooner that the U.S. realizes it cannot get past this with threats, intimidation and war, the sooner the country can adjust to the new reality of a changed world.

The whole focus of the Federal Reserve and the federal government will soon be to figure out how to service the debt and interest payments and avoid some sort of default or massive inflation. 

The U.S. cannot bring manufacturing back quickly, nor remedy decades of irresponsible financial policy.  It is going to be painful and extended and we will need the good will of our allies and competitors, whose best interest is to have the U.S. make a successful transition. We could probably get more cooperation from our adversaries than we will get from domestic political opportunists.

Sovereign debt at root of desire for war.

 IT WILL COLLAPSE WHEN THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH BUYERS FOR THIS DEBT

FINANCIAL COMPETITION WILL LEAVE THE WEST BEHIND

We continually hear of European nations planning for war, from talk of increasing their military numbers and spending more money on weapons. All this talk when their biggest problem is providing the services promised to their citizens, and finding buyers of their debt.  They are now talking of currency controls from outlawing cash transactions and forcing registration of  holders of gold and silver. At the same time metals are fleeing the continent for other places around the world. It is expected that  their plan to go to a Central Bank digital currency will accelerate the flight of assets out of the EU. EU nations are even encouraging the rearmament of Germany, something at one time would have been considered a bad idea.

Japan now admits that it central bank is the majority holder of its debt. Japan's debt is now over 200% of GDP. the highest in the world. At the same time it is being encouraged to rearm in an attempt to insure its position in relation to China.

The United States debt continues to rise at unsustainable rates, but still has the advantage of more financial freedom and while devaluing its dollar in 1933 and 1971 and a continuing devaluation by deficit spending and inflation has never completely ended it currency for something else, any attempt to introduce a CBDC or some other currency will result in a massive reaction. Quantitative easing and other fancy sounding names for Central bank purchasing its own debt is a indication that trouble is brewing.

Some assume that if there was not an alternative, all this spending and debt could go on indefinitely, but empires have historically ended when they could no longer repay their debt. Today there are alternatives rising with countries with little or manageable debt benefiting by the shift of assets into their countries. This includes China, Russia and much of Asian countries with high manufacturing and resource production, which creates wealth. 

While previous wars often put to work idle or underutilized manufacturing by countries expanding their debt, it is no longer the same situation. It may be difficult to expand an already massive debt, so one could expect efforts to raise taxes and expropriate assets from its citizens. It will result in a reaction and one can expect it difficult to rally national sacrifice to enable governments that no longer have the trust of their citizenry. This and the real ability to ramp up military production may make actually prevailing in an extended war very difficult. 

Possibly only a replacement of the current leadership in the EU and a new focus by the U.S., can prevent conflict and a transition to a peaceful co-existence.

It is in Russia's best interest to slow walk end of war.

 EU AND UKRAINE NOT READY FOR LASTING AGREEMENT

RUSSIA OWNS THE CLOCK

While we see Trump and the U.S. hoping to negotiate an imminent end to the Ukraine conflict, others are still not ready for a lasting settlement. We should expect this conflict to continue far into 2026. 

Trump is till battling the naysayers in the U.S. who still can't comprehend that Ukraine has lost and that as time goes by they will have little leverage for negotiation.

We still have those in the EU, with military forces that cannot in reality come to the aid of Ukraine and economies declining by the day. still talking of war, preparation for war and even pre-emptive strikes on Russia.

In Ukraine, Zelensky is becoming a lame duck that may not have the ability to negotiate an end to this conflict, there still ae many who want to fight on. Ukraine should be in the process of preparing for elections, it would give any possible negotiation more credibility. The problem is that most opposition have been exiled, imprisoned or worse and it would take many months to actually have an election.

Russia has been clear as to what is needed for lasting peace and the opposition is still not ready to accept defeat or any compromise. The EU and Ukraine have hopes of winning the peace by preparing for more war in the future. This reality will prevent any end to this conflict in the near future.

I suspect that Trump understands that an end to the Ukraine conflict would open up may possibilities for peace in other areas. It would allow Russia and China to cooperate in exerting strong influence on Iran to begin the process of lasting peace in that area. Again there are forces who do not want peace in that region. 

The reality is the western European countries are moving into a period of volatile economic, and social uncertainty, which will make them less likely to be able to wage war on Russia. Ukraine is physically exhausted and its supporters are near exhaustion, economically and in there ability to supply weaponry, They all have serious domestic political problems at home. Again, Russia owns the clock and the longer it keeps ticking the less likely of war against Russia. While Russia has suffered greatly from this conflict, it is in their best interest for its opponents to to decline until they are ready for a lasting peace agreement.

U.S. can't afford war anywhere.

 WAR WILL BE END OF TRUMP'S HOPES

DOMESTIC ISSUES BIGGEST THREAT

While it seems Trump has put Ukraine off of his priority list and also realizes that war with Iran will most likely cause a severe disruption of oil prices or worse, he is now in a lose, lose situation in Venezuela. Has he finally been trapped by those who desire an end to his presidency? I suspect it is a long list of those who hope that Trump fails, maybe even some in his administration.

The economic realities of deficits, debt and diminished manufacturing capacity are the biggest threats to the United States, that and the desire to keep the corrupt gravy train going as long as possible. The United States and Trump cannot afford war anywhere, it will trigger a far greater economic crisis that is brewing and smoldering, just waiting for such a match to blow it all up.

Now Trump has listened to his foreign policy geniuses who has assured him that threats and intimidation will send Maduro packing and that Venezuela is hoping to embrace him with waiting arms if he just squeezes them a little more. It is a familiar story that we have heard about Iraq, Syria and of course Russia, a repeated story that has cost the U.S. trillions and  involved millions of deaths. 

Now it seems Trump is sort of boxed in, just what his enemies want, attack Venezuela and set off an economic tsunami or back off and look weak and indecisive. It may be too late to expect Venezuela to save the day by some sort of negotiation and a narrative of victory. Time is running out for Trump to either pull the trigger on Venezuela and risk economic ruin or back off and focus on things where he has the power to make some positive gains.

He may be forced to show a little humility, a hard nut for Trump to swallow.