Why Space force?

WHAT ARE THE OBJECTIVES OF THE NEW SPACE FORCE?

WE ARE ALL DEPENDENT ON THE SECURITY OF SPACE

On Dec. 20, 2019 the new U.S. Space force became law. The law was introduce in June of this year and is now the sixth branch of the armed forces. The force will initially be manned by 16,000 active duty personnel and headed by Gen. Jay Raymond from the U.S. Air force.

While many have visions of Star wars and Luke Skywalker, it is a much more down to earth enterprise. We are all dependent on satellites in space whether the internet, Global positioning satellites, weather forecasting and Intelligence photo gathering. We can expect much more in the future.

The United States has the most hi-Tech and sophisticated weapons systems in the world. Very Hi-Tech and very dependent on computer systems and GPS technology. Our adversaries , knowing this have focused on neutralizing our capabilities by developing methods to neutralize this hi-Tech advantage.

The Russians already have a Space command and the Chinese are not far behind. We now have more nations placing satellites in orbit every year, including North Korea, India, Iran, Ukraine, Israel and the western powers. These satellites could be weaponized to disable our satellites critical for our National defense. While the details of these possibilities are secret, we can imagine it will be a continuous escalation. It is much more cost efficient to disable an adversaries weapons that to match them in capabilities and numbers.

We are mostly familiar with the effect of an EMP or electromagnetic pulse explosion in space that could wipe out all communications over a whole continent. Without communications this modern world comes to stop. This would stop most economic activity and disable the ability to fight a Hi-Tech conflict.  

This is generally what the New space force will be working to develop and implement. Measures to protect against such occurrences and likely to develop weapons to use against our adversaries.

We might also consider a military group that can operate a low-tech weapons systems that are not dependent on all this technology as a back -up. Weapons similar to what we used before the computer age or have duel control in case of a shut down of Hi-Tech capability.

Business should also think about systems that can be used for any prolonged loss of communications. 

Modern systems of communication, business, and the internet have opened up great possibilities for the future, but we should all consider the dangers of dependency on these powerful but fragile systems.

Most gun deaths self inflicted

60% OF GUN DEATHS ARE SUICIDES

MASS KILLERS OF ALL KINDS ARE SUICIDAL

The Center for disease control statistics for 2017 reveal 39,773 gun related deaths. Suicides constitute 23,854 of this number.  14,543 are homicides. 486 are considered accidental, 553 are from law enforcement action.

65 % of deaths are inflicted using a handgun, 4% from a rifle and 2% a shotgun. 29% not classified.

34% of victims are in 17-24 age group.

28.3 %  of perpetrators are in the 17-24 age group.

Those numbers for this age group mirror similar statistics for auto accidents.

There are 61 acknowledged mass shootings between 2007-2018. These are random shootings with most likely suicidal perpetrators. The numbers are getting much more clouded as there does not seem to be a consistent definition. Some are now including domestic incidents were there are 2 or more fatalities. If such incidents are included it would be a higher number.

To add a little perspective, the CDC lists 146,571 unnatural  accidental deaths occurred in 2015. The highest causes were 47,478 by unintentional poisoning, 37,757 by traffic accidents, and 33,381 by falls.

Concerning gun related suicides it is near impossible to prevent most suicides. The best help would be family, friends and anyone who has personal access to the victim, We also must consider that gun suicide is mostly personal and does not have collateral victims. We do not have any statistics on Suicide by Auto, but there are undoubtedly suicidal people who have impulsively crossed the center line or hit immovable objects. This could be a far more dangerous to others than gun suicide which does take more intent and premeditated action.

The number to focus on is the 14,543 homicides, about 20% of this can be attributed to gang activity,  more needs to be done to address gangs in this country. If they smuggle literally tons of illegal drugs into the country, they can also smuggle thousands of illegal weapons.

What rightfully disturbs us all is the random killing of children and innocent people who just happen to be at the wrong place at the wrong time. The perpetrators are in most cases suicidal, expecting to die or commit suicide during their act. While guns are often used in these cases they can and do use autos, edged weapons, flammable liquids or improvised explosives. We see this daily in other parts of the world. We cannot legislate behavior by banning inanimate objects.

The real common denominator is feelings of hopelessness, a bleak future and alienation from family and society. It is possible that the negative view of the future that has been continually being espoused to influence public opinion, whether it is climate change, were we are being told life will end in the near future or other hysteria that leaves young people with a negative and hopeless view of the future. We should all encourage our youth that any problems can be addressed and corrected in a rational way. The future is indeed as bright as we want to anticipate it. 

Originally published 9/18/19

Impeachment Trial chess game underway.

DO DEMOCRATS NOW FEAR A TRIAL THAT THEY CANNOT CONTROL?

THE TRIAL MAY NEVER HAPPEN

The first sign of fear from the Democrats was Chuck Schumer sending a list of demands concerning the Senate trial even before a vote for impeachment. This was likely a feeling out of the opposition as to what to expect from the Republicans and the White House defense.

The White House and some supporters are in favor of a full blown trial lasting possibly months that would bring in Adam Schiff, the whistle-blower and his source, Hunter Biden and sworn testimony and witnesses from the Ukraine. They would also probably need to produce the witnesses that the Democrats claim they want.

Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham have made it clear they would like to have a short quick trial and just address the accusations and evidence voted on by the House. Both have legitimate reasons for their approach. McConnell believes if the Senate treats this impeachment seriously and ties up the Senate for months it will encourage more frivolous impeachments in the future.

The White House wants a full vindication by exposing the corrupt practices of Schiff and some in the National security council who initiated this Impeachment. Also vindicate his asking for investigations by Ukraine into corruption involving Hunter Biden.

The Democrats may want to call some of Trump's advisers to verify their claims, but that would be risky if Trump wins out for a full blown Trial including the Biden's and the whistle blower. 

It is a verifiable fact that Hunter Biden and Devon Archer were being paid $166,000 a month by Burisma, a Ukrainian Gas Company. It is also a provable fact that Joe Biden threatened to withhold $1 billion in aid to Ukraine if it did not fire their prosecutor who it is alleged was investigating this corruption.

The Democrats may have hoped that the Senate would dismiss this impeachment and they could use it as a campaign issue in the next election. Schumer's demands were both a testing of the waters and a delaying tactic.

The other problem is can they trust that the trial will not broaden after it is started.  

Rudy Giuliani claims he has documents and sworn witnesses that prove all the corruption concerning the Biden's in the Ukraine. It has been expanded to allegedly containing proof of diverting U.S. aid back to players in the U.S. and money laundering by Hunter Biden. Also that Marie Yovanovitch the U.S. ambassador conveyed to the Ukraine those names that were not to be prosecuted by Ukraine. Also that the U.S. embassy in the Ukraine refused to give visa's to Ukrainians who attempted to testify in the U.S.

Some Senator's have agreed to hear this evidence but not until after the Trial. They would like to not confuse the charges by the House with these matters.

McConnell has said that the ground rules of the trial is to be determined by the accused, which is Trump. I assume that all the meetings presently going on with the White House and his defense is to determine what that will be.

If it is indicated that if a lengthy and complete trial allowing all these issues to be aired is decided upon, the Democrats will likely not proceed to a trial. That will then create another controversy and more chess playing.

Is a Mexican crisis brewing?

HOW WILL MEXICO DEAL WITH THEIR CARTEL PROBLEM?

EXPLOSION IS INEVITABLE, QUESTION IS NOT IF, BUT WHEN

The government of Mexico's new president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is now slightly over a year old. The trends of the new administration are now becoming reality. The new Populist President is enjoying a 60 to 70% approval rating with the population. He has gained popularity by selling off the Presidential jet, regularly walking and talking to the people and now flying on commercial flight. He has lived up to his image of a President for the people.

While the image is presently holding up, serious problems are smoldering below the surface. 8 out of 10 consider crime to be the number 1 problem. Murders are up 2.2% from the record of 36,685 slayings last year. The day he took office he declared an end to the country's war on drugs, saying you can not fight fire with fire. 65% of Mexicans believe that the Cartels are more powerful than the government, just 29% believe the government is stronger. Many churches have eliminated evening masses as the parishioners are too fearful to travel at night. Less than 13 % of violent crimes end up with a suspect in court compared to 80% in the United States.

The President disbanded the 40,000 member National Police, whose  purpose was to pursue organized crime. While this organization had problems with corruption, it was replaced with a new National guard of 70,000 members. It has not yet become a well organized institution.

At the same time the economy is limping along with only a slight growth. Many of the reforms are to give more control to the government.

In last couple of months we have seen a raid on a Police station resulting in many deaths in the successful liberation of a Cartel Leader.The ambush massacre of 3 women and six children, U.S. citizens. In the last weeks an assault on a municipal building by 40 armored vehicles, with cartel symbols, that resulted in the death of 23 people. In the last week, the U.S. issued an advisory that U.S. citizens should stay out of 5 provinces in Mexico because they are under the control of the Cartels.

President Trump has threatened to label these cartels terrorist organizations just as ISIS and Al Qaeda. The President of Mexico pleaded to not do that and Trump has for the moment backed off.

Mexico has cooperated in patrolling the U.S. border and has had a great effect on stopping illegal crossings. He does seem to have a good relations with Trump for now and Attorney General Barr has gone to Mexico to offer help.

Sooner or later this situation will change for the worse. Obrador's hope that the criminals would behave better, is wishful thinking. They most likely view him as weak and will expand their control of the country. 

Cartel's have very simple business plan. Offer a stick and carrot, this applies to officials in Mexico and politicians in the U.S. The carrot is bribes way above their usual earnings and the sticks are death to them or their family. In a country with very weak law enforcement it is an easy choice.

When Columbia finally began to seriously squash the cartels in their country it lasted over a decade and resulted in the death of over 600 police and tens of thousands of judges, constables and citizens. Bombings of government building and the bringing down of an airliner to kill a judge.

The Mexican cartels then took over the Colombian business and may now be even stronger and more organized. They have had several decades to strengthen their position.

Sooner or later the Mexican Cartel's will need to be addressed, either by popular demand of Mexicans or U.S. pressure. Most likely a combination of both.

With a common border, we will not be immune from the violence that will erupt the day this fight becomes a reality. We should be strengthening our border and preparing to protect our citizens along the southern border. We will not only have the consequences of direct violence, but also the humanitarian crisis that could resemble a Syria in our neighborhood.

Below is a recent map released by U.S. govt.

Democrats impeachment at last: The real abuse of power.

PARTISAN IMPEACHMENT

HISTORY WILL BE THE JUDGE

The Democrats have finally realized their priority goal of the last 3 years. A completely partisan vote to impeach Donald Trump. It is a real example of Abuse of Power. The House does have the power to impeach and they can use it if they they can get enough votes. We will see how they are judged by History. 

After 3 months of continuous trashing of Trump and his supposed abuses by both the Democrats and the media they have been unsuccessful in convincing 1 Republican to side with them. Most of all, they have not moved the needle on Trump's approval rating in the slightest. They have now used their Nuclear political weapon in desperation. While it is unlikely to be their last attempt to diminish Donald Trump it may all be futile from here. This exercise was more about a frustrated punch to the wall or a kick of the dog.

Nancy Pelosi is attempting to influence the Senate Trial, she will soon realize that her power in the Senate is non-existent. She has also lost the respect of most of the Republican Senators. They owe her nothing. 

It is indeed Impeachment-Lite, not being able to even come up with a statute to support their claims. 

The Democratic House not only can be accused of Abuse of Power but also Obstruction of Justice. Both with very clear evidence. Abuse of Power is confirmed by the partisan vote. Obstruction of Justice is the cover-up of the Biden Family corruption and the evidence is Joe Biden bragging of his demand that the Ukrainians fire their prosecutor who was investigating the $166,000 a month in payments to his sons consulting firm. Both are very obviously common knowledge and proven by documents and video.

It is also convincing evidence that the present Democratic party can not be trusted with power.

While they may have prolonged the decline of Biden, there is more to come. Not vague assumptions of wrongdoing, but dollar and cents accounting. He may be still leading in national polls, but he is slipping badly in early primary states. He hopes that his fire wall will be South Carolina, we will see.

Yesterday 200 members of the Obama administration endorsed Elizabeth Warren. Are democrats taking notice.

The Democrat candidates have a gravitas and charisma problem. Most of them are having problems financing their campaign. Bloomberg has the money, but that is about it. He's not in New York anymore.

Hillary is the only one who has the know-how and the campaign infrastructure to be a serious candidate. It would be a very serious sign of desperation for the Democrats to resurrect her candidacy.

Impeachment: Democratic therapy.

HOW LONG WILL THE GOOD FEELING LAST?

WILL IT SATISFY OR WILL THEY NEED ANOTHER FIX

The Democrats and their media allies are, at least for the moment, ecstatic that they are finally going to vote to impeach Donald Trump. This has been their desire since November 2016. Finally they are going to be fulfilled. It may be the kind of experience that we all know, the anticipation is much more exciting than the fulfillment of our ultimate desire or hope. Whether it is a new car, summer vacation, marriage or divorce, once accomplished we may find that empty feeling. Often the anticipation overestimates the reality.

The Democrats and media have been led down a very hopeless path, they have had the anticipation of Hillary Clinton's win in 2016, somehow it just did not happen. They have yet to understand why.

They were led to believe they would reverse this loss by Robert Mueller and his band of Democratic lawyers. They all anticipated they would bring such pressure on Trump that his numbers would decline to the point that the Republican establishment would demand Trump resign. Eventually the Mueller team threw in the towel, but left some vagueness to give them hope. 

They pursued, collusion with Russia, Obstruction of Justice, Emoluments, Trump as mentally ill, the 25th amendment, campaign finance, a threat to national security, nepotism, then when time was running out, finally abuse of power and obstruction of congress. What the hell, it was the their last chance and had to fulfill their promises to the far left base.

As time went on their pretext of objective opposition evaporated into all out political war. It is now obvious that Adam Schiff and many other Democrats knew the Russia investigation was a planned Hoax. It was an attempt to overthrow the last election or at the least tie Trump's hands for 4 years. They lied plenty to keep this hoax going, as did the complicit media. Now, they are more desperate than ever, Trump's numbers are the same as they were the day after the last election. It is very scary indeed.

There is also the possibility that all the lies are going to be exposed, this could be devastating to the careers of many. This impeachment is a desperate move to damage Trump and cover up the corrupt dealing of their best hope to defeat Trump, Joe Biden.

The Biden's dealing in the Ukraine may be just the tip of a huge iceberg, they may have been able to keep much under wraps until now, but a Trump re-election will be just too much.

Their quest to destroy Trump just has not worked. He now has near a 90% approval with the Republicans. The Republican House and Senate have come to realize the lies and corruption that have been used to destroy Trump and understand that they all now either stand or fall with Trump.

It is likely that even Never-Trumpers, who do not like Trump, will now have to support him. 

It is way too early to forecast the results of the next election. It is my guess that impeachment will be a short lived feeling of ecstasy, followed by almost immediate depression. Are the Democrats going to go cold Turkey to get over this or is another fix in the future. I will bet on the later.

Climate debate: Reasoned approach or political hysteria

WHAT EFFECT CAN U.S. POLICY HAVE ON CLIMATE

IS IT ABOUT CLIMATE OR GLOBAL GOVERNANCE?

While recent polls list climate change far down on voters priorities, it is being pushed to the forefront both on the domestic and international scene. It is being portrayed as a crisis that requires immediate and drastic action. After having seen similar hysteria in the 1970's  with books like, " The late great planet earth",  "The population bomb" and the theories predicting a new ice age, all which have yet to be realized one has to be a little skeptical of the new urgency. I suppose it is mostly focused on the young, who have not been around long enough to see similar crisis touting.

One part of the crisis is global warming, while real records were not kept years ago, there are estimates that the north Atlantic region experienced the medieval warm period, 950 to 1250 AD with 0 being the median number it was estimated as an increase of +1.8 degrees f. This period witnessed population increase in Greenland with the ability to grow crops before not possible. 

Then we experienced the " Little Ice Age", between 1550 and 1700 AD with a -1.8 degree temperature.

Modern temperature anomalies are as follows

1880-1940 -0.2 to -0.4

1940-1960 +.2

1980-2015 +1

2015-2019 +.8

It is a fact that solar activity is not uniform and has periods of increase and decrease which effects the planets temperature, so while temperatures have been slightly on the warm side they are by no means far out of historical norm. That may be why we now are pointed to climate changes rather than global warming.

It is also clear that arctic ice has been diminishing and ant-arctic ice has increased slightly. It has also noted that the magnetic north pole has been moving north and west, historically this has moved at a rate of around 7 mi. a year, since 1970 it has increased to around 35 mi. per year. There is also evidence that earths axis may have changed over time. This is now possible to observe with the introduction of satellites and GPS. Whether any of this is due to human activity has not been proven. Some wonder if the extraction of material from the earths crust by mining etc could change the balance of the earth.

Common sense tells us that the construction of heat absorbing material such as blacktop parking lots and highways and building roofs could increase temperatures, especially in urban areas. This could be addressed by using light colored materials in the future.

The other perceived problem with the climate is an increase in the carbon dioxide levels. As we learned in elementary school, at least when I was there, animals give off carbon dioxide and need oxygen to live, plants on the other hand need carbon dioxide for life and give off oxygen.

Co2 levels are now estimated at 415 parts per million today. The average was around 280 ppm from 10,000 years ago to the mid 18th century. It is estimated that levels could have been as high as 4000 ppm 500 million years ago and as low as 180 ppm 2 million years ago. Much has to do with volcanic activity, forest fires, etc.

Experiments have estimated that doubling the Co2 levels could increase plant yield by 37%. A Co2 level of 475 to 600 could increase plant yields by 17%. This is an average as some types of plants would be more some less. Co2 is not a poison, it is not harmful in itself. All your carbonated drinks are created with Co2.

One must wonder if the northern climates go through a warming trend, with Co2 levels elevated, will we see an increase in plant growth with a corresponding increase in oxygen output. Would the increase in plant growth deplete the Co2 levels over time to a more historic level? Is it possible that the earth is a dynamic system able to self adjust to changes in the environment?

We are seeing an increased interest in places like Greenland, northern Canada and northern Russia which would profit from increased plant production and livable conditions.

As far as decreasing the use of fossil fuels, that is a good idea, even just from a conservation point of view.

Why have we not seen a coordinated effort to conserve electricity. I believe we could cut the use of electricity by 20% without a decrease in our quality of life. I often see houses with every light in the house on, TV's on in 5 rooms. 20% reduction would be an easy goal to achieve.  Sadly many do not equate electricity use with the burning of fossil fuels. 64% of electricity is produced with fossil fuels. 19% nuclear, 7% hydro, 6% wind 1.5% solar.

We will never power a modern industrial society with wind and solar energy.

Nuclear fission is the only present perfectly clean energy source that is presently available.

If we really want to eliminate the use of fossil fuels, we will need an accelerated, modern Manhattan project to develop nuclear fusion technology. It may be a much better investment than subsidies for solar panels, wind mills and electric cars.

Electric cars are mostly being powered with electric produced with fossil fuel.

Global solutions focus on the developed world which has already made great strides in reducing all sorts of pollution, but has no way of addressing the developing world were the worst pollution is created. Focusing on reducing emissions in the developed world will make us poorer, but will not have a effective result in reducing emissions.

Inevitably we will need to find new renewable clean energy, there will be a limit to the amount of fossil fuel available. I have yet to see anyone propose real plans for a transition to some other source, just a lot of hysteria listing the problems anticipated without any real viable solutions proposed.

We are being told that all would be solved if we would scrap our present economic system, raise taxes to give to a global government and allow bureaucrats and politicians to guide us to our Utopian future. I guess I am just too old and skeptical to be a believer in that plan.


Originally posted 9/8/19