Is a Mexican crisis brewing?

HOW WILL MEXICO DEAL WITH THEIR CARTEL PROBLEM?

EXPLOSION IS INEVITABLE, QUESTION IS NOT IF, BUT WHEN

The government of Mexico's new president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is now slightly over a year old. The trends of the new administration are now becoming reality. The new Populist President is enjoying a 60 to 70% approval rating with the population. He has gained popularity by selling off the Presidential jet, regularly walking and talking to the people and now flying on commercial flight. He has lived up to his image of a President for the people.

While the image is presently holding up, serious problems are smoldering below the surface. 8 out of 10 consider crime to be the number 1 problem. Murders are up 2.2% from the record of 36,685 slayings last year. The day he took office he declared an end to the country's war on drugs, saying you can not fight fire with fire. 65% of Mexicans believe that the Cartels are more powerful than the government, just 29% believe the government is stronger. Many churches have eliminated evening masses as the parishioners are too fearful to travel at night. Less than 13 % of violent crimes end up with a suspect in court compared to 80% in the United States.

The President disbanded the 40,000 member National Police, whose  purpose was to pursue organized crime. While this organization had problems with corruption, it was replaced with a new National guard of 70,000 members. It has not yet become a well organized institution.

At the same time the economy is limping along with only a slight growth. Many of the reforms are to give more control to the government.

In last couple of months we have seen a raid on a Police station resulting in many deaths in the successful liberation of a Cartel Leader.The ambush massacre of 3 women and six children, U.S. citizens. In the last weeks an assault on a municipal building by 40 armored vehicles, with cartel symbols, that resulted in the death of 23 people. In the last week, the U.S. issued an advisory that U.S. citizens should stay out of 5 provinces in Mexico because they are under the control of the Cartels.

President Trump has threatened to label these cartels terrorist organizations just as ISIS and Al Qaeda. The President of Mexico pleaded to not do that and Trump has for the moment backed off.

Mexico has cooperated in patrolling the U.S. border and has had a great effect on stopping illegal crossings. He does seem to have a good relations with Trump for now and Attorney General Barr has gone to Mexico to offer help.

Sooner or later this situation will change for the worse. Obrador's hope that the criminals would behave better, is wishful thinking. They most likely view him as weak and will expand their control of the country. 

Cartel's have very simple business plan. Offer a stick and carrot, this applies to officials in Mexico and politicians in the U.S. The carrot is bribes way above their usual earnings and the sticks are death to them or their family. In a country with very weak law enforcement it is an easy choice.

When Columbia finally began to seriously squash the cartels in their country it lasted over a decade and resulted in the death of over 600 police and tens of thousands of judges, constables and citizens. Bombings of government building and the bringing down of an airliner to kill a judge.

The Mexican cartels then took over the Colombian business and may now be even stronger and more organized. They have had several decades to strengthen their position.

Sooner or later the Mexican Cartel's will need to be addressed, either by popular demand of Mexicans or U.S. pressure. Most likely a combination of both.

With a common border, we will not be immune from the violence that will erupt the day this fight becomes a reality. We should be strengthening our border and preparing to protect our citizens along the southern border. We will not only have the consequences of direct violence, but also the humanitarian crisis that could resemble a Syria in our neighborhood.

Below is a recent map released by U.S. govt.