Goal is normalization of Syria

SYRIAN CIVIL WAR IS OVER, NORMALIZATION IS NEXT STEP

NEIGHBORS ALL HAVE REFUGEE PROBLEM

While many in our government are still hoping for regime change in Syria, it does not look likely to become a reality. The hope is to effect a normalization and reconstruction of Syria. This is a must for both Turkey and Jordan.

Turkey has been sheltering 3.6 million Syrian refugees, Jordan 1.3 million. They are a continuing economic and political burden on both countries.

While Jordan, with the help of Russia and Syria have opened up the Nassib-Jabar border crossing in Oct. 2018, only 153,000 have returned to Syria. Many do not wish to return for numerous reasons, one being if of age they can be drafted into the Syrian military and the infrastructure is largely destroyed. The UN has the policy that it is illegal to force repatriation, but Jordan has been suffering both economically and politically caring for all these refugees.

Turkey, with 3.6 million refugees has planned to open up the much talked about safe zone, The plan,  with cooperation of the international community is to rebuild cities and towns in the zone to repatriate Syrian refugees. It is claimed that 370,000 have returned to Northwestern Syria. 

Many claim that most refugees do not want to return to Syria and don't believe they should be forced to return. It seems that there is going to be some resolution to all this in the near future. It is anticipated that Turkey may force the refugees back into this safe zone. It is obvious that Turkey would not take this on, if they were not going to solve their refugee problem. Erdogan has threatened to force the refugees across their northern border into Europe if they push back against his plan.

The Turkish operation began on Oct. 9 after they informed the United States that their incursion would begin,  The United States withdrew the 50 special forces in this area to not expose them to the opposing sides. The alternative would have been to threaten to militarily resist this incursion. If you threaten, you better be prepared to call up reserves and collect 40,000 or 50,000 troops to back up your threat.

Erdogan's force includes two Turkish armored Brigades, two mechanized infantry brigades, one commando brigade, two gendarmerie special operations battalions, assorted special force teams of some 6000 soldiers, and more than 5000 Turkish-backed Syrian National Army(SNA) fighters. Another 1400 fighters from the SNA were transferred to Akcakale and are now participating in the operation.

This operation was decided  6 months ago, it will initially construct 3 or 4 battalion size bases and develop other infrastructure for artillery and rocket bases. After Erdogan's meeting in Washington in November it will be expanded to secure the zone and hope to repatriate 2 million refugees.

There is much opposition to this plan, but there does not seem to be an alternate plan proposed. Both Turkey and Jordan cannot be expected to shoulder the responsibility for all these refugees forever. 

As is the case with the middle east, there are many ulterior motives for everything. Will Erdogan hope to incorporate northern Syria into Turkey? Is the first battle in the revival of the Ottoman empire? How long will Iran sit by and not be concerned that Turkey is taking charge of the area?

Israel and Iran have been fighting a low grade war in the area for some time. Israel wants Iranian forces out of Syria. Iran states it will not leave until all U.S. forces leave. If U.S. forces leave and Iran refuses, they may have to deal with Russia who has been instrumental in negotiating with all those concerned.

This is a volatile situation with no apparent easy solution. The status-quo was not a solution. It is a situation that needs resolution, hopefully it can be accomplished without escalating into an all out middle-east war.

originally published 10/15/2019

update:

Confrontations between Syrian and Turkish troops have escalated in the last week. Turkey is threatening to protect their proxy forces in Idlib province. Syrian ground troops and Russian air power have been eliminating opposition in Idlib since December 2019. While unpleasant, it is necessary for there to be any lasting peace in Syria.

It is likely that the Syrian troops and Russia will not stop in their effort to take control of Idlib province which is presently controlled by opposition Syrian forces, Al-Queda and ISIS along with other Jihadist groups.

Turkey is asking for NATO and U.S. support, while they are all giving lip-service in support of Turkey it is unlikely that anyone will be willing to send their troops into this area.

The withdrawal of U.S. troops from this area months ago has now put Syria, Russia and Turkey in the position of having to work this out for themselves. If the goal is peace in Syria for the Syrian people the work should shift to negotiations by the international community to look beyond this last fight in Syria and focus on what reforms can be worked out for a Syria no longer at war.

Coronavirus and Influenza.

INFLUENZA HAS BEEN KILLING PEOPLE BY THE THOUSANDS FOR DECADES

NEW DOES NOT MAKE A DISEASE MORE LETHAL

As of the last few days there has been a reported 82,000 cases of the Coronavirus resulting in 2800 deaths. This covers a period of 3 months. It does appear to be spreading around the world which probably is inevitable. This is now the case with any infectious disease aided by the prevalence of international travel.

The consequences of being infected with this new strain of coronavirus, the common cold is also a coronavirus, are very similar to Influenza which has been prevalent every year for 100 years. In most strains of Flu the elderly and those with compromised health are hit the hardest. The infamous Flu of 1918 actually affected people in their 20's the most. It killed 500,000 people in the U.S..  Flu deaths in the United States has averaged from a low of 12,000 to a high of 56,000 per season. The Flu of 2018-2019 was the highest in decades an is estimated to have killed 80,000 in the U.S.

2019-2020 season has resulted in 14,00 deaths and 250,000 hospitalized. It is estimated that in average season 25+ million Americans will contract the Flu. Most will survive. Recovery can be expected to a low as 10 day to several months, depending on the strain and the patients condition.

Many virus's have a history of the initial outbreak to have the worst effects. Many virus's tend to weaken slightly during each transmission. The original Ebola outbreaks years ago had a 100% death rate. Then after several transmissions there were some survivors. In the last outbreaks it appears to have been less than 50%. New strains could again be more virulent.

The biggest concern with the Coronavirus is that it is new and effects unknown. As time goes on we will develop a specific treatment regime and eventually a Vaccination. In the meantime, the best policy to to be as vigilant as we should be in avoiding the Influenza, which most likely is still a bigger threat to all of us than this new virus.

Turkey asks U.S. for Patriot missiles for Syrian conflict

TURKEY'S THREATS GO UNHEEDED BY SYRIA AND RUSSIA

IDLIB CONFLICT INTENSIFIES

The Syrian government troops continue their assault on Idlib province, the last stronghold of Syrian Rebels, ISIS, Al-Qaeda and others. They are supported by Russian air power. The pacification of Idlib province and elimination of those troops there is necessary for any long term peace in Syria.

While the western countries have no solution to the problem, they are opposed to the conflict in Idlib, Their concern is civilian casualties. The problem is Syria has been at war for 9 years. The biggest casualty is the civilian population. The efforts to force Assad out have failed. It is time for all sides to move on and the elimination of the last resistance is necessary for a peaceful Syria.

The west would be best served if they would offer humanitarian aid for the displaced, this would help to placate Erdigon's concern for dealing with all these refuges. They should also negotiate with Syria and Russia for amnesty for those who are willing to give up the fight. They are going to lose and likely be killed if the conflict continue.

Turkey has threatened to intervene if the fighting does not stop. His threats have been ignored. Turkey has asked for access to Syrian airspace, not likely to be approved by Russia. Turkey has asked for patriot missiles for protection if he decides to go into Syria. Again not likely to be approved by Trump.

It appears that Syria and Russia are determined to finish this 9 year old conflict. In the long run it will be the best result for the Syrian people. The best approach is to have a positive dialogue to have some influence with Syria and Russia after it it over.

New Era of western political prisoners!

ARE POLITICAL TARGETS BEING MISTREATED 

DANGEROUS PRECEDENTS ARE BEING SET

There are lots of protests in London over treatment of Julian Assange the head of Wikileaks. It is reported that he has been held in solitary confinement, regularly strip searched and denied contact with friends and others. He is allowed out 1 hour a day. Large groups of doctors signed petitions that his health is deteriorating. He is currently being held for skipping bail 7 years ago when he sought to avoid extradition on questionable charges of sexual assault in Sweden. The claims were that Assange engaged in consensual sex, but unprotected without consent.

He is now being considered for extradition to the United States where many fear he may be similarly treated. He is charged in the U.S. for printing classified information, much like the activities engaged in by the New York Times and The Washington Post.

We also saw the treatment of Paul Manafort who was denied bail and held in solitary confinement for 9 months even before his trial. Much of this was to pressure him to conform to the narrative demanded by investigators. Manafort also suffered physical deterioration from his unprecedented treatment.

It seems the goal is to hope that they die while in confinement to send a message to any who might consider opposing the ruling elite. 

We also saw the middle of the night raid, documented by CNN, by dozens of swat team members on the home of Roger Stone. It is likely his case was prejudiced by the coordinated effort to declare him guilty of serious crimes. He was never charged with any crimes concerning his connects to the Trump campaign but was non the less charged with several process crimes and convicted.

Never a word from the American Civil Liberties Union, or any other civil rights groups. the same groups that will rush to the defense of murders, rapists and proven terrorists.

It is a fact that political prisoners are now singled out for special treatment by the courts and authorities in the United States, the UK, and possibly other western countries. Of course that only applies to political prisoners of the wrong ideology.

Sanders hits jackpot in Nevada

SANDERS LOOKING LIKE TRUMP IN 2016

REJECTION OF POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT CONTINUES

Bernie Sanders has blown away the competition in the Nevada primary. While the vote count is still not complete, he appears to have around 46% of the vote in a still large field. The Democratic party is being overwhelmed by their own creation. We hear from Chris Matthews that Benie's win is like the Nazis marching into France. Or that he is supported by the Russians. They never objected to embracing socialism for the last 70 years, why are they surprised that those that support socialism have now become strong enough to take over leadership positions in the party.

In 2016 conservatives rejected names like Bush, Kascich, Rubio, and Christie, because they were tired of candidates who campaigned one way then governed much like the other party. We saw Barack Obama promise fundamental transformation of the United States, and while he did indeed attempt to do just that, it was too little too slowly for many on the left.

Bernie Sanders is not an outlier in the democratic party. His philosophy is what they have been moving to for decades. The others just want to hide their move to socialism by a policy of progressiveness that will slowly and subtly get the U.S to that political system. They cultivated that policy by preaching it in the Universities and many liberal churches since WW2. While voluntary socialism is sometimes not unacceptable, like insurance, involuntary socialism always progresses to less freedom for individuals and more power to the state.

While the implementation of Sanders polices would very likely lead to an economic disaster for our country a open debate about the direction of the country could be a good thing.

Without a lot of his competitors dropping out before super Tuesday, Sanders has a very good chance of winning the Democrat nomination. He has what none of his competitors have, authenticity and a passionate vigorous campaign with real people assembled in his brigades to work for him. Money can buy campaign consultants but not the love of your supporters.

A vigorous campaign between Trump and Sanders would give the voters a clear choice. Two authentic candidates who may actually respect each other for their determined fight.

Is Assange coming to the USA ?

ASSANGE CAN ANSWER MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THE RUSSIAN INVESTIGATION

IS ASSANGE READY TO TESTIFY IN EXCHANGE FOR IMMUNITY?

Julian Assange has been removed from the Ecuadorian embassy and has been arrested. He may be prosecuted by the UK for skipping bail. He will most likely be headed to the USA for questioning and also possible charges for espionage. 

He is great danger in the UK, there are people in high places who were involved with the Russian investigation and Assange may have information that will be devastating to the intelligence community.

You can bet if he survives his stay in UK custody, he will soon be in the United States. 

Assange knows  the source of the hacked DNC emails. He has claimed that it did not come from a state agency, but was handed to a Wikileaks operative in a park in Washington D.C. If he has evidence of this it would a  bombshell revelation.

Yesterday, Attorney General, William Barr admitted he is looking into the Russian investigation. He is concerned that there may have been unauthorized surveillance of the Trump campaign. The accusation that the Russians hacked the DNC emails in an effort to help Trump is a cornerstone of the investigation.

In 2017 the Justice department was negotiating with Assange to come to the United States and testify, but the deal was killed by then FBI director James Comey and Senator Mark Warner.

Is it a coincidence that Assange has been arrested at this time? Will he soon be in the USA to make a deal for what he knows concerning these issues?

He will also be in danger in this country. We have already seen the spin begin, that he is a Russian agent or an operative of the Russian government. This is actually very unlikely if you look at the history of Wikileaks.

The effort will be to demonize Assange and question his credibility which historically has been sound. 

It is likely this is just the beginning of this story.

originally published 4/19/2019.

Russian meddling BS again.

INTEL COMMUNITY CLAIMS RUSSIANS HELPING TRUMP TO WIN

NO ANSWER TO WHY OR HOW

CNN and MSNBC were all exited again last night with the revelation that the Russians are going to help Trump in the 2020 election. This comes from analysts in the intelligence community. No wonder Trump is reluctant to accept their advice. This information is relayed to congress and the media, but not to the White House.

No one asks or has any idea why the Russians would help Trump over the list of democrat candidates. They have already destroyed any hope of improved relations with Russia with all their unrealistic reports of Russian interference. 

No one asks or has any idea just how the Russians are going to help Trump win in the next election. Is it more Facebook ads? Is it propaganda from RT television? Of course, that is probably all classified information. It is obviously just more actual meddling in the election by the intelligence operatives themselves.

I would like to hear who came to these conclusions, and what the actual form the meddling is to take.

As far as propaganda, Americans have been subjected to 4 years of propaganda from the Cable and TV media, the Washington Post and the New York times. Hundreds of stories from anonymous sources that often just fade away in a few days. All in an effort to discredit and disqualify the Trump presidency. Obviously it has had little effect on Trump's supporters. It appears that the motive is to keep the democratic base wound up with hatred and distrust of Trump and his supporters so they come out to vote.

The reality is, that the biggest threat to out elections is the fact that the democrats control all the election infrastructure in our cities. They have far more opportunity, ability and motive to meddle than the Russians.

What they have been able to do is discredit themselves and their credibility. This includes the media, the FBI, the Intelligence community, the State department and most all government institutions. It appears they all have become political operatives instead of objective reporters and sources of information. How can anyone disentangle what is true and what is political propaganda? It may be generations until their credibility can be restored, if ever.

Democrats brawl in Las Vegas.

NO CHANGES LIKELY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE PRIMARY

SANDERS BRIGADES ARE THE ONLY PASSIONATE DEMOCRATS

The grand entrance of the hoped for savior of the Democrat party, Mike Bloomberg, was more like the Wizard of OZ, behind the $60 billion curtain was a man who would be insignificant in any political setting without the curtain. He was totally unimpressive. If anyone has the tendencies to become an authoritarian and over the top president it is Bloomberg, who espouses banning everything he disapproves of and has the record to back it up. He is not a Democrat or a Republican or Libertarian. He may be in a late life crisis in no longer being fulfilled by a quest of money and now using that money in a quest to be the most powerful person on earth. His chances of becoming president are very, very low.

Desperate to gain relevance in this primary by standing out and diminishing their opponents it was sort of a chaotic affair. Elizabeth Warren was ready to take on Bloomberg for his many confidential agreements with numerous women over the years. It seems that if you are wealthy, in business and have contact with women, this is now just another cost of doing business.Warren is desperate as she has been falling for some time, it is unlikely she will have turned that around.

Biden did better, was more energetic, but still has that look that some people get at a certain age, that they are near a time of just not up to the task. It is not an attempt to embarrass, just the facts of life, this happens to some in their late 60's and some in their late 80's.

Buttigieg is still the most articulate, and intelligent appearing. He may be as intelligent as he appears, but after a few appearances we see repeated references to platitudes about turning pages, etc. without specific stances. The fact that he would be the first president with a first man rather than the first lady cannot be overlooked. It would be very hard for many to vote for him.

Klobucher, also looked desperate and got into a side tussle with Buttigieg, who seemed to believe that he can take votes from her. She did Ok, and will likely be able to survive a little longer.

Then there is Bernie Sanders, the only authentic candidate on the stage. His politics are far to the left and it is doubtful that he can be elected president. Sanders has been espousing these polices for years. He is the real deal and if elected will attempt to have them enacted. If they attempt to rig the primary or the convention this time, Sanders and his brigades will not go quietly. They will not support candidates like, Bloomberg or Hillary Clinton.

While some Democrats claim that Sanders is too far to the left, that is just a lot of talk, they all want to progressively move to a complete government control of all aspects of life. We all remember Obama's fundamental transformation. Sanders is the only one who is honest with the American people about his vision for the future of the country. For this we have to give him credit, but his policies would lead to a disaster for the country.

Syrian, Russian and Turkish relations heating up.

TURKEY THREATENING TO MAKE MILITARY MOVE IN SYRIA

SYRIAN CONFLICT READY TO REIGNITE

Just when things in Syria appeared to be moving to a conclusion. Turkey is threatening to use military force to save their proxies in Syria. If this happens it could begin a confrontation between Syria and Russia against Turkey.

The plans that had been put into place were to allow Turkey to establish a 20 mile wide safe zone in northern Syria. This was to provide a safe place for Syrian refugees without them moving into Turkey and then possibly north into Europe.

The revolution in Syria has mostly been put down except for Idlib province. It has or had a population of about 3 million with an estimated 10,000 to 30,000 collection of anti-Assad military, ISIS remnants, Al-Qaeda and other radical Islamic groups. 

Turkey has supported both militarily and financially the Syrian National army which is made up of near 40 factions. There is also the National liberation front  which is composed of many Al-Qaeda militant groups and other jihadists. 90% of Idlib is controlled by  Hayat-Tahrir-al-Sham a radical Islamic group who wants a strictly Sharia law regime.

The Syrian army with the air power of Russia has been in the process of bringing Idlib Province under the control of Syria. It has been fighting since Dec. 2019. This elimination of the last bastion of resistance has been interrupted several times by protests of Turkey, EU and the United States. Their excuse has always been the threat of civilian casualties, but the fact is these groups have been supported by Turkey and the United States in their quest to overthrow the government of Syria.

It seems their solution is to let Idlib province be a haven for all assorted jihadists as long as they are opposing Assad. Possibly, they view these groups as possible assets in some other proxy enterprise in the middle east. The United states was willing to go into Idlib to take out the leader of ISIS but is unwilling to support the elimination of the others. The United States has supported some of these groups during the Obama administration. 

The plan that has been proposed by Russia, Syria and other countries in the region is to end the war in Syria, guarantee the borders of Syria and have all foreign forces leave Syria, that includes Turkey, Iran and the U.S

It is then proposed that Syria will adopt a new constitution and move to a more democratic government. This is all part of the ongoing talks initiated in a conference originally held in Astana, Kazakhstan and supported by the majority of nations in the region.

It seems that Turkey, who is being supported by the United States is unwilling to give up on the overthrow of the Assad regime. It is no secret that many in the U.S. State department also are unwilling to accept peace in Syria without the removal of Assad.

It appears this conflict is about to come to a conclusion or escalate in the near future.

Can Bloomberg buy Love?

BLOOMBERG HAS BEEN PREPARING CAMPAIGN FOR 6 YEARS.

HE WILL GET LITTLE SCRUTINY FROM DEMOCRATIC LEADERS OR THE MEDIA

Michael Bloomberg has been preparing his run for the Presidency since shortly after ending his service as mayor of New York. His spending on political contributions has increased from $11 million in 2013 to $100 million in 2018. 

While this is a large increasing number, he has also donated billions in Philanthropy. While much of this has been to his Alma-mater, John Hopkins, much of it has political overtones. He has given millions to Emily's List, which will probably guarantee no negative references and possibly an endorsement in the upcoming election. In 2019, Bloomberg's charitable giving soared to 3.3 billion, more than the previous 5 years combined. 

He has given over $100 million to the sierra club, millions to Muslim group's, millions to Attorney generals candidates in numerous states to bring suits favoring liberal cause. He has given money to anti-coal groups, gun control groups and to 100's of key Democratic politicians. 

We are beginning to see the results as the endorsements roll in from these groups and those associated with his giving. We are also seeing endorsements from Black politicians and leaders who are willing to overlook his policies as mayor because they want to stay on the receiving end of his generosity.

Having spent over $300 million on advertising so far in this primary, you can expect that very few negative editorials or documentaries will be run about Bloomberg. The consultant class is in a state of euphoria about this campaign, as they will all possibly get rich if Bloomberg wins the nomination. He can be expected to possibly spend unlimited funds, very easily setting all time records.

It is a fact that you can buy the endorsements of Non-Profit group leaders and politicians all over, but it is not quite as easy to buy votes as in the past. 

The best way to win votes today is to exhibit a rare quality in politicians, that is authenticity. Bloomberg's past and present contradictions are much harder to overcome in today's wide open media.

What Bloomberg cannot buy is the love of his supporters, this is what separates Trump and Sanders from all the rest. 

While many had misgivings about Trump's authenticity he has delivered or strongly attempted to fulfill all his promises. Bernie Sanders is the same as he has always been, his supporters have not 

doubted his sincerity in his positions. Bloomberg will not be able to buy any votes from these two groups.

We have seen the endorsement routine too many times, it no longer is as effective as in years past. It will be interesting to see how much money Bloomberg is willing to spend. He will be encouraged by the media, consultant and democratic leaders, just as they encourage an addict that just a little more  will make the difference. Political campaigns can cloud anyone's judgement. I've watched  as the cry's for more money are continuously being called for during political campaigns. Most just reach an end of the road when the money runs out, lets see what the richest candidate ever is willing to spend.