Goal is normalization of Syria

SYRIAN CIVIL WAR IS OVER, NORMALIZATION IS NEXT STEP

NEIGHBORS ALL HAVE REFUGEE PROBLEM

While many in our government are still hoping for regime change in Syria, it does not look likely to become a reality. The hope is to effect a normalization and reconstruction of Syria. This is a must for both Turkey and Jordan.

Turkey has been sheltering 3.6 million Syrian refugees, Jordan 1.3 million. They are a continuing economic and political burden on both countries.

While Jordan, with the help of Russia and Syria have opened up the Nassib-Jabar border crossing in Oct. 2018, only 153,000 have returned to Syria. Many do not wish to return for numerous reasons, one being if of age they can be drafted into the Syrian military and the infrastructure is largely destroyed. The UN has the policy that it is illegal to force repatriation, but Jordan has been suffering both economically and politically caring for all these refugees.

Turkey, with 3.6 million refugees has planned to open up the much talked about safe zone, The plan,  with cooperation of the international community is to rebuild cities and towns in the zone to repatriate Syrian refugees. It is claimed that 370,000 have returned to Northwestern Syria. 

Many claim that most refugees do not want to return to Syria and don't believe they should be forced to return. It seems that there is going to be some resolution to all this in the near future. It is anticipated that Turkey may force the refugees back into this safe zone. It is obvious that Turkey would not take this on, if they were not going to solve their refugee problem. Erdogan has threatened to force the refugees across their northern border into Europe if they push back against his plan.

The Turkish operation began on Oct. 9 after they informed the United States that their incursion would begin,  The United States withdrew the 50 special forces in this area to not expose them to the opposing sides. The alternative would have been to threaten to militarily resist this incursion. If you threaten, you better be prepared to call up reserves and collect 40,000 or 50,000 troops to back up your threat.

Erdogan's force includes two Turkish armored Brigades, two mechanized infantry brigades, one commando brigade, two gendarmerie special operations battalions, assorted special force teams of some 6000 soldiers, and more than 5000 Turkish-backed Syrian National Army(SNA) fighters. Another 1400 fighters from the SNA were transferred to Akcakale and are now participating in the operation.

This operation was decided  6 months ago, it will initially construct 3 or 4 battalion size bases and develop other infrastructure for artillery and rocket bases. After Erdogan's meeting in Washington in November it will be expanded to secure the zone and hope to repatriate 2 million refugees.

There is much opposition to this plan, but there does not seem to be an alternate plan proposed. Both Turkey and Jordan cannot be expected to shoulder the responsibility for all these refugees forever. 

As is the case with the middle east, there are many ulterior motives for everything. Will Erdogan hope to incorporate northern Syria into Turkey? Is the first battle in the revival of the Ottoman empire? How long will Iran sit by and not be concerned that Turkey is taking charge of the area?

Israel and Iran have been fighting a low grade war in the area for some time. Israel wants Iranian forces out of Syria. Iran states it will not leave until all U.S. forces leave. If U.S. forces leave and Iran refuses, they may have to deal with Russia who has been instrumental in negotiating with all those concerned.

This is a volatile situation with no apparent easy solution. The status-quo was not a solution. It is a situation that needs resolution, hopefully it can be accomplished without escalating into an all out middle-east war.

originally published 10/15/2019

update:

Confrontations between Syrian and Turkish troops have escalated in the last week. Turkey is threatening to protect their proxy forces in Idlib province. Syrian ground troops and Russian air power have been eliminating opposition in Idlib since December 2019. While unpleasant, it is necessary for there to be any lasting peace in Syria.

It is likely that the Syrian troops and Russia will not stop in their effort to take control of Idlib province which is presently controlled by opposition Syrian forces, Al-Queda and ISIS along with other Jihadist groups.

Turkey is asking for NATO and U.S. support, while they are all giving lip-service in support of Turkey it is unlikely that anyone will be willing to send their troops into this area.

The withdrawal of U.S. troops from this area months ago has now put Syria, Russia and Turkey in the position of having to work this out for themselves. If the goal is peace in Syria for the Syrian people the work should shift to negotiations by the international community to look beyond this last fight in Syria and focus on what reforms can be worked out for a Syria no longer at war.