Democrats dilemma underway

ARE DEMOCRATS 3 LANES COMPATIBLE?

DIVISIONS WILL BE OBVIOUS SOON

Primaries begin today with the Iowa caucus. The Democrats seem to have 3 lanes of supporters.

1. Biden Lane, establishment candidate who would follow in the path of Hillary Clinton, and the Bush's,  He is likely to be the favored candidate of most media, the bureaucracy and those who live off government money.

2. The Sanders / Warren Lane. Bernie Sanders is winning this group of supporters.These were his people in 2016 and this group may be the majority of the Party and the most motivated. Warren has been looked at and will likely lose support since she has been coming off as insincere. 

3. The Buttigieg/ Amy Klobuchar Lane. This is more of compromise  group. This may be the group that will decide some of these primaries by taking votes from the Biden camp.

The attacks have already begun. First was Clinton stating that no one liked Bernie. This was followed by Bernie supporters booing Clinton in public. This is a real divide in the party. 

This weekend we see Klobuchar attacked by leaked revelations from her past as a prosecutor of a black youth. This is classic use of opposition research, probably from the Biden camp. They perceive that she is siphoning off votes from Biden. It was also revealed that the Biden camp offered a deal for the two to trade votes on some of the caucuses. Iowans will not like this, a good chance for Bernie to attack them both.

Buttigieg has money and hence staying power, but he not likely to be able to win. He may be courted by the Biden camp with a promise of a government job in his administration if he should win.

Klobuchar is running on empty, without a win in the next few primaries, she will be done.

Bloomberg has been spending lots of money and promises to spend a lot for whoever the candidate. He most likely cannot win this primary and he also will siphon off votes from Biden. If he should win, the Sanders supporters will boycott the election in bigger numbers than they did for Clinton. They will all avoid attacking him directly, they will leave it to third parties. They all hope to get some of his money.

The Democratic National Committee is doing it again. Changing the debate rules so Bloomberg can participate in the next debate. Did they and Nancy Polosi intentionally push the impeachment off, to disrupt the campaigns of Sanders and other Senators in Iowa.  If they keep it up their left wing, which they cultivated for years, will walk and they will need to reinvent themselves.

Biden has promised unity and to not attack his opponents, he will have others do it and they will get very viscous if need be.

Eventually it will come down to a Sanders, Biden race with Sanders being the favorite of the activist members of the party. Sanders is sincere, and he is a vigorous campaigner. Biden would be a figurehead president for the establishment bureaucracy. He would talk nice and shake hands, the running of the country would be left to others.

A Sanders, Trump campaign would be two outsiders representing two clear divergent directions for the country. 

A Biden, Trump campaign would be a repeat of 2016. The outsider against the ultimate career politician with probably a lot of baggage to be unpacked.

Two other observations. Trump will get more black votes than in 2016. Hillary is lobbying for a vice-president job. Only someone with a death wish would ever consider her.