Russia prepares for long NATO conflict.

 STRATEGY IS NOW WAR OF ATTRITION FOR UKRAINE AND NATO

IT IS NOT CLEAR WHOSE ECONOMY WILL COLLAPSE FIRST

While much is made of the anticipated Ukrainian offensive, it will, if it happens, just be a battle in the now long war of attrition between Russia and NATO. Many have predicted that after this Ukraine offensive, Russia would continue its incremental march west across Ukraine. It now appears that Russia has decided there will not be a negotiated settlement nor a victory but a long war of attrition between not Ukraine but NATO and Russia. It may be that it will end with the collapse of NATO or Russia or both.

An objective view of the present circumstances sees the United States, the power behind NATO, socially divided as never before.  Economically challenged on many fronts, a massive debt, unrestrained spending, a military that is becoming questioned as to its readiness and ability to recruit servicemembers. No longer self sustaining and a manufacturing base that is dependent on foreign adversaries. An objective analysis sees the possibility of economic collapse and an inability to sustain a long sustained commitment to maintain the draining support of Ukraine and western Europe. Western Europe is actually in a more vulnerable position than the U.S. and any faltering of the U.S. will result in a collapse of NATO and western Europe. 

The anticipated collapse of Russia has so far not happened. In fact, it seems that Russia has weathered and adjusted to the western economic onslaught. Western Europe is now more vulnerable because of these sanctions than Russia. The reality is that the experiment in democratic socialism is going to be severely tested in the very near future. Can the collective west sustain a draining war of attrition and continue to maintain the promised level of social benefits that has enabled these governments to grow and sustain their position. All these governments are saddled with massive debt, much of it a result of buying votes and allies. Can they continue with a long drain of resources and also a lack of energy and food. We already see unrest in France over a retirement age of 64. We also see conflict over a large dependent migrant population that is also a further drain on social services.  It is very doubtful that the west can sustain a long war of attrition any better than Russia.

Russia on the other hand has no debt, is basically self sustaining in food and energy and it seems the population does understand the present existential threat from NATO. The population also has had much experience in doing with little and extended perseverance. The collective west no longer has the same population that it had 70 years ago.

It seems the U.S. expected Russia to make a massive extended invasion into Ukraine, a situation that would have left Russia with extended supply lines and vulnerable to gorilla warfare that would have bleed its ability to continue. It now appears that Russia is preparing for an all out fight with NATO. They are fortifying their positions in eastern Ukraine and western Russia. It seems Russia has decided they want to make this stand right were they are with short supply lines and the battlefield of their choosing. They have put their industrial capacity on a wartime footing, producing weapons and supplies. There is no expectation of any negotiations in the near future. This is indeed going to be a long war of attrition. 

The west may have to do likewise, selective service call ups, defense industrial priorities, all are looking to be possible measures that will need to be taken.

It will be an opportunity for China and southern hemisphere to be the major powers of the new world order that remains after this conflict it decided.