Russia/NATO, miscalculations and evolving strategies.

 A CONFLICT OF TRIAL AND ERROR

RUSSIA HAS THE STRATEGY AND THE MATERIALS TO OUTLAST NATO

This war on the Ukrainian battlefield has now been going on for near 10 years. It  is now in the 2nd year of the enhanced conflict that began in February 2022. It began with miscalculations on both sides and is now near a pivotal turning point of negotiation or all out world war.

NATO believed that Russia could be enticed to enter Ukraine with a large scale operation that would dive deep into Ukraine and be the target of a relentless bleeding of men and equipment. This, coupled with economic sanctions would bring down the Russian government.

Russia believed that a show of serious force would encourage a negotiation for a neutral non NATO Ukraine. 

Both soon found out that the best plans often go astray during war.

Russia soon found out that they were ducks in a barrel for shoulder fired anti-tank and anti aircraft weapons. They also saw negotiations in Turkey in April with Ukraine and some EU counties squashed by the U.S. and UK. They then withdraw from deep inside Ukraine and took up defendable positions in the Dombas area.

The west soon found that economic sanctions were largely ineffective in damaging Russia's ability to conduct this war. It also soon felt the economic repercussions of these sanctions on their own countries.

The West then set out to provide Ukraine with increasing levels of weapons, munitions and western technology.

The Russian's adopted a strategy of enticing the Ukrainians to attack their fortified positions and continually destroyed their equipment and killed their soldiers. It became a war of attrition that is reminiscent of WW1. 

It seems the Russian air defense is superior to the Wests, there is in effect no Ukrainian air force remaining. If it flies it dies.

Both Patriot missiles and S300 air defense systems use radar to pick up incoming missiles, drones and planes. The Russians have developed a strategy of sending drones and cruise missiles and when these defenses are turned on they are destroyed with air launched hyper sonic missiles in minutes. Ukraine's air defenses are now decimated. 

Ukraine had spent 8 years fortifying large buildings in these cities.  They were well armed and well trained, but the Russians soon depended on long range artillery to literally destroy these buildings. Then began using 3000 pound glide bombs released 30 miles to the east to take these buildings down. They have developed a strategy to take these building with minimal loses.

HiMars are mobile rockets that are again using radar to locate the enemy artillery positions, but these also are vulnerable to long distance cruise missile attacks.

So it seems the next step is a much anticipated Ukrainian counter offensive. They have been supplied with tanks and other armor and materials have been stored. They have no air support and will likely be sitting ducks for the now hardened, experienced, tuned up Russians.

Much talk of western supplied F-16's, Ukrainians are not trained on these plains and it is a long process. The West may venture to use U.S. and NATO pilots, but they will have many losses against the Russian air defenses. It would be a very dangerous escalation.

So, it will either be all out WW3 or a negotiation that will entail a smaller Ukraine, and a demilitarized and neutral status for what remains of the country. It seems to be the only possible outcomes.