Ukraine and the Cuban missile crisis.

 BOTH HAD TO DO WITH NATO EXPANSION

NO ONE WANTS FOREIGN MISSILES ON THEIR ORDER

While the U.S. continues to deny that the current crisis in Ukraine was caused by the policy of NATO expansion to the border of Russia, it is in fact what has caused this continuing crisis. The present situation is causing an economic crisis in Europe. This crisis is now becoming a social disaster that may very well lead to the collapse of several European governments. Then there is devastating disaster for Ukraine that has paid the first and most for this disaster of U.S. foreign policy. There very well may be more to come, as this administration is hell bent on overthrowing the government of Russia even if it requires an all out NATO war with Russia.

It is interesting that a similar situation that occured 60 years ago is considered the time when the world came closest to nuclear war. While many believe that is not to be considered, it is a very real possibility if this conflict is not moved to a negotiated settlement very soon.

The Cuba missile crisis began in October of 1962 when reconnaissance over Cuba revealed that the Soviet Union had placed Nuclear weapons on Cuban soil, just 90 miles from the U.S. mainland. It was an immediate crisis and the U.S. demanded they be removed or an invasion and removal would be taken by the U.S. 

The other half of this story is that Turkey, on the Soviet southern border, had become a NATO member in 1952 and the U.S. had placed Nuclear Missiles in Turkey in 1959. It is not clear when the Soviet Union realized that such missiles were there as this was before satellite reconnaissance. It is also not clear when the Soviets initiated putting missiles in Cuba.

Cuba was a proxy of the Soviet Union at the time just as Ukraine is of the U.S. and NATO. Fidel Castro urged Nikita Khrushchev, the president of the Soviet Union  to hold his ground and even to attack the U.S. with nuclear weapons, fearing that an invasion of Cuba was at hand. It was never made clear if the Soviet Union really wanted missiles based in Cuba or did they just want a bargaining chip to have nuclear missiles removed from Turkey. In any case the crisis was averted the missiles were removed from Cuba and U.S. missiles were removed from Turkey in April of 1963.

While the west denies that the invasion of Ukraine was initiated to make it clear that Russia would not accept Ukraine as a member of NATO, a negotiated settlement with a neutral Ukraine and protection of the Russian population of eastern Ukraine was the goal. It has now escalated way beyond that point and talk from the west that only total defeat of Russia is the accepted outcome. This is very delusional and dangerous talk from amateur policy makers in the present U.S. administration. Russia will not accept defeat, they will not give back those regions now made part of the Russian federation. There is no longer an easy exit from this crisis that was available in Cuba in 1962.

While many believe that no one would engage in nuclear war, that is not the case. Israel would use nuclear weapons if their existence would be threatened and Russia would use nuclear weapons if their existence is threatened, as would the U.S. 

There is talk in Washington of bringing this conflict into an all out NATO war with Russia. I expect the NATO allies in Europe do not want any part of this idea except for Poland, which seems to have some delusional illusion of grandeur and Ukraine which believes that the U.S. now owes it to rescue the country. Any such escalation will likely initiate a nuclear response from Russia, not against Ukraine but against the U.S. and the UK. 

While many believe we can defend against such an attack, it is not the present reality. The only response would be an attempt to respond in kind. While many view this present crisis as just another war in a long list of limited conflicts it will only remain a limited conflict when there is a willingness on both sides to come to a conclusion in the near future. It will be a conclusion that will not be a victory for NATO or Ukraine, but the best compromise that they can salvage.